CLX9 Fading Short SetupSeemingly oil has run into the supply area via profit booking. The traders are reducing short risk exposure and are likely to enter for continuation on a pullback. The fading short setup looks valid at this point. However, in the context of the recent price action, the probability of this trade is not the best that we could have.
Gannangles
BTC ULTRA RALLY? ALL OR NOTHING...Rule for 1D chart with 45degree angles:
price/bar ratio should be 24 (1point per hour)
or some other 1(price unit) x 1(time unit) ratio you like.
(without a 1x1 price ratio it will not work well)
That said.
THE FANs:
the downtrend one shows how to read it.
The far from the 45degree, the FAST it moves.
The closer it gets to the 45degree, the velocity get slower (because it is changing the FORCE from bearish to bullish)
(you can see the close it gets to the downtrend 45degree diagonal, the slower the fall the faster the propulsion up gets)
(also you can see the propulsion up gets stronger when the price breaks the 50% of the fan - the red thin lines are the 25%, 50%, 75% inside the fans, great support/resistance levels)
SO
since ~7.4k the price is UPSIDE the uptrend 45degree.
SO
IF price hit the yellow and red uptrend FAN area it will MOVE UP AS FAST as it WENT DOWN in the same area in the previous downtrend, but UP.
SO?
IF the price his the 0.666 level (at 13247) BEFORE july it will BRING A HUGE FAST MOMENTUM UNTIL 20K near middle September.
COOL!
BUT if the price fail that it MAY do 2 things:
-weak bullish IF it keeps ABOVE the 45degree UPTREND diagonal.
-STRONG BEARISH IF it BREAKS DOWN the 45degree UPTREND diagonal.
ALL GONNA BE DECIDED THIS WEEK, FOLKS!
SO it is time to prepare the LONG and SHORT strategies.
LET THE PRICE TALK!
GANN Box BitStamp This is an alternate gann box chart using bitstamp and with different axis points.
We have crossed the turquoise midpoint which is an area of heavy resistance where the trend could change. Watch as the angles act as support and resistance to price. Breaks of a line mean something!
Using the law of vibration 192 day time cycle starting the day after the ATH .
Blue vertical lines 192 day cycles
Red 48 day pivot points (resistance to the trend)
Turquoise 96 day midpoint (Major resistance in time to the trend in force)
New idea about gann line aka gann boxThe original gann line is exactly line with box. Or that box is with line.
45°line is very famous but many people don't know how to use it.
It's always 1° per day.
Ahhh but in gann box. That's a transpert plastic paper which like a rule to measure something.
Today I have a interesting idea. Maybe It can be adjusted!!!
To adjust it. You must know the cycle. e.g original is 90d or 144d. IDK other parameters.
So what if we use it on 4day cycle? or 8day?
I'm not sure how to use it.
#It's just a idea. It have nothing to do with chart above.
My basic idea is if you found a subcycle. Multiply it to bigger cycle. Use box to include a full bigger cycle.
I think box high should be high of cycle. (If you use it this way maybe you should wait highest price come. Well you must have some cycle basic or it's all not work for you)
I think this way is worth to study because gann said the 45degree line is a true Moving average line.
Maybe we can use it to judge whether the trend is strong or weak.
#This idea maybe looks dumb but if it can be a valid confirm tool it's still very valuable.
CLM2019 Potential Fade CLM9 and oil in general has gone up almost 50% since bottoming after the severe selloff. The upcoming weeks upside should be approached with caution as there is an increased risk of exposure reduction from buyers, which is expected to manifest itself in a potential pullback of 200+ ticks.
USOIL 1H PerspectiveUSOIL showed a strong close last week and is seemingly looking for another positive close during the upcoming week. There are potential limit buy areas highlighted in the chart. The first area of interest being the weekly HLC3 @ 5773, the level from which the price bounced during the late Friday trading hours. Market participants seem to be waiting for a pullback to add on to their short risk exposure. Apparently, bears must first close and swap the bullish gap for bulls to panic and start vacating their holdings. A further push down of the market is likely to take place if bulls fail the gap area. As long as, the gap holds, short risk exposure will be the preferred alternative.
CLJ2019's Anticipated Range This is a 10H chart of CLJ2019, which will be trading until it expires the 20th of March. The Gann Box tool is squared to the high & low range of this contract; from the 7601 peak to the 4300 bottom. There are also the 45º and 15º angle lines coming from various highs and/or lows. As shown in the chart, the oil price is currently approaching the 150 day EMA, it has increased from the 4300 low by a third and the 1/3rd area coincides with 150 day EMA.., and all this is happening after it saw a record breaking plunge of ≈45% from its 7601 peak. Traders who held short risk exposure through that 33%+ rise from the low are likely to take profits at these levels. The reducing of short risk exposure is anticipated to manifest itself in a minor pullback of 200+ ticks at least. Shorting the pops seems to be the reasonable approach from here. The risk factor for short entries is $1.3K (130 ticks) per contract with a potential of 2R return for risk.
Fading Short Follow UpThere was another wash of sellers after finding support at the previous day's hlc3 value. Sellers are still unable to close the entire 1H bar below 20EMA. On the other hand, the big bull breakout bars might turn into a climax buying if bulls fail to follow through here. Waiting for the US session to show the lead.
USOIL 1H Potential Limit Buy Setup USOIL has been going through hard times after being rejected at the gap area mentioned in earlier posts. It has now approached an area of buyers' interest it seems. The $50 mark failing to support the price can be interpreted as a longterm 38.20% pullback continuation sell setup. For now, the 5125 area is of interest, if that goes, the 5050 area.
USOIL Potential Support AreasUSOIL got rejected around the old gap area of 5480-5520 that is highlighted on the chart. This resistance area is a significant one, overcoming it will open the way towards higher targets for bulls. It will also validate the inverse head and shoulders pattern noticeable on higher timeframes. Bears were quite aggressive in pressing down the price and managed to swap the first gap highlighted in green. However, there is the second gap around the 5345 area that bears need to swap for further downside. An immediate target of 5295 would open up in that case, the 5295 being next bull angle area shown on the chart. Looking at higher timeframes, such as the 5H, the price is currently painting a spring bar with a decent shadow near the 5345 gap area, which can be interpreted as bullish as long as that level stays intact. This area here is quite important for clues of further direction, the 5345 & 5295 areas being the key price levels that bulls need to guard for further upside.
USOIL Potential Support & Resistance AreasThis 3 day charts shows basic retracement levels, percentage increase levels from the current low and angle relationship based support & resistance areas. So far, the oil market saw a sharp surge from the low $42, a longterm demand area, and currently it seems there's still some room for further upside. This move up can be regarded as a retracement leg within a bigger downtrend, the common retracement level being 38.20%, which falls around the $55 mark. However, there is an inverse head and shoulders pattern also noticeable on higher timeframes, so buyers might push for the 61.80% after taking some profits. Buying into weakness seems reasonable for now.