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NIO: Is this sell-off for real?Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about NIO today. First, NIO lost downwards the Descending Channel we discussed in our last study, so it just resumed the bear trend until the next support level. And as usual, the link to my previous analysis is below this post. The $ 35 area is interesting, as NIO filled an open gap , and it found a support there too (black line). When a stock is near a support level, the Risk/Reward ratio usually is very high, and if NIO reacts around here would be an amazing sign. Now, let’s see the daily chart: Let me be clear: The trend is bearish, and we have no clear reversal sign ahead. But I’m very curious about the volume seen in the past days. During the entire last bear leg, after it found a top around the 21 ema at the $ 46.28 (black line), it dropped with a very low volume. And when it started to get closer to the $ 35 area the volume started to increase again. What’s more, Friday’s bullish reaction had a higher volume than usual. Usually, this indicates that this is not a real sell-off , but since NIO is quite weak and we have no reversal sign ahead, there’s nothing interesting to do. But I agree that if we see any bullish sign this week, it could offer a brilliant buy opportunity for everybody who wants to buy NIO or increase position, as the R/R ratio is very high. Let’s see how NIO will play out in the next few days, and remember to follow me to keep updated about our daily studies, and if you liked this idea, please, support it! Thank you very much.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
16
AMC: Hit our target (again)! Any reversal sign ahead?Hello traders and investors! AMC is doing some very interesting and technical movements recently. Since our last analysis, it did a downwards breakout from the Trap Zone , and it hit our target today. The link to our previous public study is below this post, as usual. Now, AMC hit our target and it is near a support area . In the 1h chart we have the $ 9.93 area, which seems to be working, but we have even more support levels in the daily chart. But before we talk about the daily chart, we have a few things to keep in mind. First, it lost our Trap Zone by doing a Breakaway Gap , which is a quite powerful pattern. When this happens, we usually see a very strong movement next, and it was almost certain that it would hit our target. Now, it seems AMC is trying to do a Harami , a candlestick pattern that in normal circumstances has a random chance of working as a reversal, but when it is near a support level, these odds increase. The Harami wasn't triggered yet, so we still must wait. Now to the daily chart: In our last study, last week, we set a target at the 21 ema and the pink line area (after a downwards breakout of the Trap Zone), and right now, AMC is sitting right at our target. We have no clear reversal sign in the daily chart, but if we see one, it would be a nice opportunity to buy AMC, at a good price, with a great Risk/Reward ratio. The reaction in the 1H chart is promising, yes, but we have yet to see a confirmation in the daily chart. If AMC triggers any interesting pattern around, the $ 20.36 is the next target to work with . But wait for confirmation! And remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies, and if you liked this idea, please, support it with your like! Thank you very much!
NYSE:AMC
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
9
ZOM: Key Points we must keep in mind for the short/mid-term!Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about ZOM today! It’s been a while since my last analysis, so we have some points to update. And if you missed my last public analysis, the link to it is below, as usual. First, ZOM reversed the short-term bull trend that we discussed in our last study, shortly after a breakout of a key point at $ 2.34. Now the trend is bearish , as we have lower highs/lows, and the 21 ema is pointing down. Today, it lost the support level around the $ 1.94 (red line) by doing a gap. If this gap is going to be filled in the next two days, it could be an Exhaustion Gap , and work as a reversal pattern for ZOM. Now, let’s see the daily chart: In the daily chart the situation is not as horrible as it looks like in the 1h chart, as ZOM is clearly still inside a congestion . As it is normal in congestions, the price could seek its base and the situation would still be under control. Meaning, ZOM could hit the $ 1.48 again, and this would be a buy opportunity. Another point worth of noticing is the low volume , which indicates that this is not a real sell-off. If it were, the volume would be higher. ZOM did a false breakout from the $ 2.25, which was the key point we discussed in our last analysis, as it closed above it, then in the next day it did a classic bearish engulfing , which pushed the prices down. Now, ZOM needs another clear pattern to reverse the bearish bias, and make it retest the $ 2.90 again. A ny good reaction, with good volume will do. I like the fact that the bullish candlesticks have higher volume than the black candlesticks, on average, in the last few days. This could indicate a possible rally next; we only need some confirmation. And remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies and updates on stocks, and if you liked this idea, remember to support it with your like! Thank you very much!
Z
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
4
PLTR: What it takes for it to fly again?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how PLTR is doing today! Since our last analysis, PLTR did a downwards breakout from the dangerous Trap Zone . Now the trend is bearish, as it should be. Let’s see in detail what’s going on. First, in the 1h chart, PLTR lost the red line at $ 25.18 by doing a gap (yellow area), which was quite surprising. What’s more interesting is that PLTR retested the red line again as a resistance , along with the 21 ema, on March 17, but the price couldn’t sustain at this level. This is an annoying weakness sign. Now, the trend is clearly bearish, as we have lower highs/lows and the 21 ema is descending and pointing down. But PLTR has a technical target around the light blue line ($ 22.50). Now, let’s see the daily chart: The problem with PLTR is that we can’t take a movement like this seriously, as the volume is too low, but it seems the $ 22.50 is indeed the next target for PLTR. But as long as we don’t see any good reaction, with good volume, the bearish bias will persist. We don’t have a good reaction yet, but now that we are near a support level, is the best time to see one. And remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates on PLTR and other stocks! If this idea gave you a new insight, please, support it ! Thank you very much!
P
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
11
PLTR: The decisive moment is coming! Escaping the Trap Zone!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how PLTR is doing today! This one is one of the stocks I have on my radar, and I’ve been following it closely, and we have been doing weekly analyses about it. In the 1h chart we see that PLTR is inside a Trap Zone , just like several other stocks. A Trap Zone is the area between the previous resistance (in this case the black line at $ 27.45) and the ascending 21 ema, which is squeezing the price within an area that gets tighter as time passes. At one point, PLTR will be forced to do a breakout, but we just don’t know to which direction it will go. I don’t see a bright future if PLTR does a downwards breakout, as we are already quite close to its support, the red line at $ 25.18. But if we consider an upwards breakout, the daily chart can offer us more clues: The area between the gap (dotted line) and the previous resistance at $ 30.25 would work as a natural target if PLTR does an upward breakout from the Trap Zone. The only thing that is missing on PLTR is a nice volume . In the worst-case scenario PLTR would hit the blue line at $ 22.50 again, while in the best-case scenario it would hit the $ 39.32. I think we can start working with the targets that are closer to us, for now. What are your thoughts on PLTR? Remember to follow me to keep updated about my daily analyses on stocks, and if this idea gave you a new insight, please, support it with your like! For more analyses, check the links below. Thank you very much!
P
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
26
NIO: Inside a dangerous "Trap Zone"!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how NIO is doing today! First, in the 1h chart, we have higher highs/lows, and the price is trading above the 21 ema, a clear trait of a short-term bull trend . In order to keep going up, it must defeat its first challenge, at $ 46.28, which is the next pivot point . We can say that NIO is inside the famous “ Trap Zone ”, between the ascending 21 ema and the previous resistance at the black line. The 21 ema is squeezing the price in a tighter area as time passes, and at one point, NIO will be forced to do a breakout. The question is, to what direction? In the 1h chart an upwards breakout seems more plausible, as we have an open gap (yellow area), and the next target would be the $ 50.40. But we must be aware of the daily chart: The problem is, the $ 46.28 is not only a pivot point in the 1h chart, but it is near the 21 ema in the daily chart, and the trend is still bearish in this timeframe. If we have enough bearish patterns around this resistance zone, NIO could easily drop again to the $ 38 area. The volume decreased in the past few days, indicating that the players are waiting for more signals here, before jumping into any conclusion. For now, we must watch NIO closely and see how it’ll behave after a breakout from this Trap Zone. And remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates and studies on stocks! And if this idea helped you to see something new in this chart, please, support it with your like ! Thank you very much.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
20
AAL: Anxious about it? Here's how to proceed!Hello traders and investors! Let’s analyze AAL again! In this analysis, I’ll share some exit strategies you can use on it. Ok, as we have been saying since my first analysis, in the end of January, AAL finally hit its natural target at $ 22.80, and it is trading even above it today! My analyses on AAL were all public, and the link to them are below this post, if you are curious. How to proceed now? Well, it is not a buy opportunity at all. Now it is time for those who bought it under $ 17 start to think about booking their profits. Since it defeated the target at $ 22.80, this could be your stop-gain , and if AAL loses this support, then you may sell it. Another key point is the previous gap, which we still don’t know its type. If it is an Exhaustion Gap , it’ll be filled quickly, today or tomorrow, indicating a sharper pullback ahead. Use it in your favor too. Or, if you have the stomach for it, wait for a clear reversal sign , like a lower high/low to book your profits, and buy it back when it hits the 21 ema in the daily chart. Speaking of daily chart: Another exit strategy is a trailing stop , and you may book your profits if AAL loses the previous day’s low. For instance, if tomorrow it loses the $ 24.21 (today’s low, so far), then just sell it. Again, pullbacks are opportunities to buy when a stock is in a clear bull trend. Don’t buy now, near a top level, and if you want to buy, wait for it to get closer to the 21 ema or one of its supports again. And if you liked this analysis, please, support it with your like ! And remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies. Thank you very much.
NASDAQ:AAL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
6
AMC: Next Key Points we all must keep in mind!Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about AMC today! It did some very technical movements, and it is about time to update you since my last analysis (the link to it is below, as usual). In my last analysis we discussed the two most important key points for AMC, the black line at $ 7.63 and the purple trendline . Well, AMC respected again the $ 7.63 as a support level before it defeated the purple trendline, triggering a buy sign. What’s even more curious is that it did break the trendline by doing a Breakaway Gap (yellow area), which is a very powerful sign. A Breakaway Gap is a gap that defeats a support or resistance, in this case, it defeated the trendline and the 21 ema. Now, AMC is doing a pullback to the 21 ema, which is normal and expected. Let’s see the daily chart for more clues: We already talked about how the bulls were in the control of this situation, thanks to our reading of the volume , and the movement seen this week reinforces this idea. The volume is increasing, as the price goes up, all according to the 5th Tenet of the Dow Theory: The Volume Must Confirm the Trend . When we combine our typical Price Action style with a good reading of the volume, we have all the tools we need to trade well. But what now? Pullbacks to the 21 ema are expected, and I believe we’ll see one, but since it did break the bearish sentiment, we can expect it’ll fill the gap at $ 12.91 (red line). If AMC will fly again or not, we don’t know. It feels it is too late to buy it (the good buy was around the $ 7), but if it breaks the $ 12.91, it’ll trigger a Cup & Handle chart pattern, and AMC could easily seek the $ 20 again. This stock is harder to read now, but soon it’ll do something interesting again. And if you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies, and to support this idea with your like! Thank you very much!
NYSE:AMC
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
11
PLTR: Complete Analysis (Hourly/Daily/Weekly charts).Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how PLTR is doing today, and do a complete Multi Time Frame Analysis (MTFA) by looking at the hourly, daily and weekly charts! This stock dropped sharply in the past few weeks, but right now it is doing something interesting. For the first time, it is breaking the bearish bias seen since it started its fall around the green line ($ 37.95), as we see higher highs/higher lows. This movment is natural, and not surprising at all, as we already discussed in my previous analysis, last week ( link below). What’s more, the 21 ema is pointing up, and the price is above it. We can assume it’ll reverse the bearish sentiment seen in the daily chart as well. The bias is still bearish in the daily chart, but if the 1h chart persists in its bullish sentiment, then the trend will eventually reverse in the daily chart too. What are the main challenges PLTR has right now? First, the 21 ema, which might offer resistance today or tomorrow. Second, the volume is still quite low, so, looking at the daily chart some people might not be entirely convinced by it. Aside from that, if PLTR keeps trading at this level until the end of this Friday, the weekly chart could be very interesting: At any moment the bears could make PLTR trade under the 21 ema and the 61.8% Fibonacci’s Retracement , and this is interesting. Clearly, this combination makes a very strong support level. In fact, PLTR did a very powerful Hammer candlestick pattern last week, with a nice shadow under the candlestick’s body, a good thing when we talk about Hammers. And this week we have a Bullish Engulfing (so far), making the situation quite bullish. Now, the 50% retracement may work as a support, but I believe the 38.2% level is more interesting, as it is exactly at the same price level where it would fill a gap. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses, and please, support this idea with your like! Thank you very much!
P
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
12
The Gap Up (1)Stock price has a gap up, how to confirm it is a true break out or a false break out? Maybe a tight consolidation is a method. Tips: This is forex, not a stock. But the tips should apply as well. Before the gap 2017 May, there were several times the price tried to challenge the resistance line. Once gap up, a false break out then followed by a tight consolidation, can say the resistance became support. After the consolidation, price broke out using a way called red three soldier.Then the second break out can be treated as buy hint.
Education
by yunwangvvv
TSLA: Will it reverse? Key Points to keep in mind!Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about Tesla today! In the 1h chart, Tesla is trading above the 21 ema, which is a good sign, and seems it found a bottom there, as it can’t close under it. We have a bear trend in this chart, with clear lower highs/ lower lows, but tesla is showing some early signs of reversal. First, it filled the last gap quickly, making it an Exhaustion Gap (just like NIO did, and you may check my last analysis on NIO in the link below, I explain better how Exhaustion Gaps are formed there). But Tesla doesn’t have higher highs yet , but it has higher lows. That’s a start, but the situation will change if Tesla defeats the $ 718 (black line), which is a Pivot Point . Now let’s see the daily chart: I only wish Tradingview’s chart was right, as Tesla didn’t hit the $ 872 yesterday. Anyway, Tesla hit a support level around the $ 618 and it is bouncing back up. The $ 745 is a resistance for Tesla as well, but I find the volume very good now. Since Tesla crashed last week, the volume increased, and this is a good sign. The problem will be the 21 ema, as it’ll also work as a resistance. But if Tesla defeats these points, nothing will hold it until the $ 821. It could go even higher, but let’s proceed carefully. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates on Tesla and other stocks. Support this idea if it helped you! Thank you very much!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
4
NIO: What would take for a Reversal to occur?Hello traders and investors! It’s been a while, but let’s talk about NIO today! The stock dropped a lot recently, which is not necessarily concerning, as we are talking about a systemic drop, but still, very annoying. The thing is, NIO is doing some reversal signs in the 1h chart. First, it filled a gap, which was an Exhaustion Gap. We know it was an Exhaustion Gap because: 1 – It was filled quickly; 2 – It appeared just before NIO retests the $ 42.10, which is a support level; 3 – We already have several gaps in the middle of the bearish leg (yellow areas), when this happens, at one point, we’ll have signs of exhaustion, and an Exhaustion Gap usually appears. Yes, the bear trend is getting weaker, but it didn’t reverse yet. We must see NIO doing higher high/higher low . Yes, we are near a support level, and it didn’t lose the $ 42.10, but we don’t have any higher high. So, the $ 50.40 is the Key Point here, and if NIO defeats it, we may finally see a reversal in the 1h chart. In the daily chart, we see that NIO reacted very well last week, when it retested the $ 42.10. Until then, the volume was low (under the 21 ma I always like to put in the Volume), and now, when it retested the support level, the volume increased again. This could indicate that there are people buying NIO, simply because the Risk/Reward ratio makes sense. Yesterday’s earnings report did bring some volatility, but this is not going to affect the mid/long term perspectives for NIO. Let’s see if NIO will manage to reverse the bearish sentiment around it, and if you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my updates on NIO and other stocks! And please, support this idea if it helped! Thank you very much!
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
13
Granolabar's Gap and Crap principles TESTED (2/26 Trade Recap)Introduction In this post, I explain how I utilized the Gap and Crap principles to trade SPY on February 26th, 2021. Recently, I made a post titled "Granolabar's Gap Down Guide (my own style)." The post is linked below. In it, I outlined my strategy for trading gap downs. I highly recommend you read that post before this one to understand the references I am making. In the post, I detailed a specific way to trade gap downs using a system of candles and EMAs. The most important part of the strategy is not necessarily the gap down aspect but the conditions I used to determine entries. Specifically: -------- "To know when to enter the trade, I watch the candle sticks. First, there must be a 5 minute candle that closes below the premarket low. Then there are two possible scenarios from here. Scenario 1, the next candle immediately pushes below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would take puts or sell short as soon as the second candle breaks the low. My reasoning for this is that if the movement is strong, the second candle would not hesitate to make a new low. It is better to enter on the break than to wait for the candle to close and miss out on potential profits, which are often pretty sizable when things are moving quickly. Notice in the below example that had you waited for that candle to close, you basically would have missed half of the entire fall, which lasted 4 5 minute candles. Scenario 2, the next candle does not immediately push below the low of the first candle. In this case, you would wait until there is a candle that closes below the low of the first, instead of merely making a new low. My reasoning is that if the momentum is not strong enough for the second candle to immediately make a new low, the confirmation candle to enter needs to be more definitive. The play is not invalidated because the first candle closing below the premarket lows indicates that there is downwards pressure. In this way you minimize the likelihood of shorting a bear trap while also capitalizing on the fall." -------- I will proceed by explaining my thoughts on exactly what was going as I was watching the market. (Note: stops at entry means that I set a stop loss at the price I originally purchased the option for, meaning that it will sell for breakeven price. This is important later on.) Trade 1: After getting on Tradingview in the morning and opening up the 5 minute SPY chart, I quickly noticed that SPY did not move at all overnight. Despite the lack of a gap, we could still trade with similar principles. I first drew the resistance at premarket high (yellow) and premarket low (blue) as well as a minor support (white). Identifying these support and resistance levels, as well as any applicable trendiness, are an important part to trading successfully. Keep in mind that the cleaner these lines are, the better they will act as critical levels. The first few candles after market-open were just chopping between the minor support line and the premarket high; nothing closed above or below either, so there was nothing to be done there. Do not force a play!!! You do not always have to be doing something in the market. Oftentimes sitting on your hands is the best thing to do. The next candle is when I went on high alert mode. It ended up not only closing under the minor support from premarket (that happened to hold for the first 20 minutes of the trading day), but it also closed below the 50 EMA. At this point, I was just waiting for the next candle which immediately pushed below the low of the first candle, giving the entry signal (Scenario 1). For this play specifically, I kept my stop loss at the premarket high (good resistance) and my target was the premarket low since there wasn’t any major support until then. Once SPY hit the premarket low, I scaled out most of the position and left stops at entry for the rest. Trade 2 The next play came immediately after when the following candle closed right below the premarket low. This candle was followed by a slight pullback, so my conditions for entry changed to a new candle closing below the previous low (Scenario 2). To remind myself, I marked the bottom of the break candle with a white line. This image was from that moment and shows exactly what I was thinking (I don't have the replay feature for any timeframe less than the daily). A few candles later, a candle closed under the break low. This marked the entry of a short position, with the stop loss set at the premarket low (blue line) since it previously acted as a critical level. I decided to start scaling out after seeing a small inside bar green candle, which is typically a reversal pattern. Since I took profit on part of the position, I made sure to set stops at entry for the remaining position. This ensured that the play finished green; it is not worth it to risk the remaining position going negative and cancelling out the gains. If the market takes another turn down from there, just consider reentering a new position. I will continue reiterating this concept since it is crucial for this fast paced trading style. Trade 3 After exiting trade 2, I did not play the break of the premarket low from the bottom up, but it would have been a good scalp also. Theoretically speaking, this was how it would have played out if the rules were followed. The play I did take, however, was the break of the premarket high a little later. Again similar principles: closed above the line, the next candle immediately pushed higher (Scenario 1), and the stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 cloud on the 1 minute chart. In this play, I scaled out due to a red inside bar; again, I left stops at entry after scaling out the first time to ensure the play stayed profitable. Trade 4 This trade was a slight change of pace; I ended up playing a falling wedge breakout with the same principles. I saw that SPY was forming a clean wedge with the top and bottom trend lines both having 3 solid touches each. The plan was to wait for a break of the 50 EMA (top of the blue cloud in this case) since it typically acts as a support/resistance. The stop loss was a clean break of the 34/50 ema cloud on the 1 minute chart, and the price targets were the white and yellow lines from premarket. As soon as it hit the first price target, I scaled out half the position and set stops at entry to lock in gains. The rest were sold at the second price target since the stops were not triggered beforehand. Right at breakout view: Nearing PT 2, premarket highs: To play devil's advocate on my own plan, I am asking myself why I did not sell the position at the 2:44 PM ET 1 minute bar (the 13:44 bar on my chart above). The candle was fully below the 34/50 EMA cloud and had pushed below the previous "break" candle's low for a second. While those are valid points, it did not satisfy my stop loss conditions. I wait for the second candle after the “break candle” to close below the first candle's low on the 1 minute, which this candle did not. Additionally, it ended up closing as a hammer which is typically a bullish sign. After that fourth play, I did not take any more positions for the day. Typically, the last 30-45 minutes of the day are very volatile, especially on a Friday, and it can be very risky trading in that environment. The options that I typically play expire within an hour of close; any misplay will lead to 50%+ losses instantly. However, if I am in a position that goes into the last 30-45 minutes of the day, I will not close it just because it hit that time of the day. Conclusion: I hope you enjoyed this post; it may have been a little lengthy again, but I wanted to detail exactly how I used the principles that I devised to trade. There are 3 key takeaways: 1. The candle stick rules I use to decide when to enter a trade is a good way to catch breakouts while minimizing fakeout risk. It may mean that your entry is not exactly the first bar of the breakout, but the additional safety will help the majority of the time. 2. The rules I devised in scenario 1 and 2 are not limited to Gap and Crap setups. I will use them on whatever a clear breakout opportunity presents itself, including ascending triangles, bull flags, bull pennants, symmetrical triangles, falling wedges, cup and handle, inverse head and shoulders, etc. 3. Always make sure you set stops at entry if you reach a take profit level and sell a portion of your contracts. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment. I will try to read all of them :) Have a great day and I wish you well. -Granolabar
AMEX:SPYEducation
by granolabar_trades
4