Gap
SPX: Is the bear market over already?Hello traders and investors! Let’s look at how the SPX is doing today!
It is a green Monday, and the entire world is going up. This happens very often, after a systemic drop. Today’s reaction is impressive, indeed, and it looks like the reaction seen on last Thursday.
It looks like the SPX is trying to fill one of its Gaps now, and it is quite close to fill it, but the index is still doing lower highs and lower lows , a trait of a bearish trend . Only when it starts doing higher highs and higher lows, I’ll see the situation differently.
Now, to the daily chart:
We have what looks like a candlestick pattern called Downside Tasuki Gap , which is a bullish pattern, and it’ll be hard for the bears to cancel it, as the index must drop again below today’s low.
The volume increased during this sell-off, as for the volatility, and this is one of the reasons why we still must be careful. In moments like this, there are few stocks we can trade.
The Bearish Engulfing in the weekly chart we discussed in my last analysis wasn’t triggered today, but there is still the possibility that it’ll. If you missed my previous analysis, just check the link below.
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NIO: Still trading DANGEROUSLY near a support level!Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about Nio today! My previous analysis was last Monday, what could've changed since then? Oh, and I'll leave the link to my previous analysis below, as usual.
Today’s drop was very technical, as NIO just went down to fill the gap at the dotted black line, around $ 54.60, and now it is quickly recovering. The $ 54.60 was a very good support level, but we must be aware of the 21 ema now, as it can work as a resistance.
Also, it did a false breakout from the green line, which is a good bullish sign, but NIO must show more signs of strength around, before it can fly again.
Now, to the daily chart:
On the bright side, today’s candlestick looks like a Hammer pattern, and the $ 57.20 is still an important price level to keep in mind, as it seems the price can’t drop below this point.
The volume is still low, but this is a good sign in this case. When we see a stock dropping or in a congestion with low volume, after a strong bullish movement, it is not a sell-off sign, but only a harmless pullback.
Let’s keep our eyes open on NIO. We must be very careful and look for the right timing. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses, and please, support this idea before you leave!
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SPX: Target hit. What's next?Hello traders and investors! Ok, so the SPX did what it should’ve done, and this is very good. Let’s see what’s going on here.
The index lost the 3827, and it hit precisely our target yesterday, as we discussed in my previous analyses (if you missed, I’ll leave the links below, as usual).
Today, the index found a resistance at the 3827, which was the previous support, and this is very normal - the index is just obeying the Principle of Polarity (previous supports will work as resistances in the future). But now what?
If the index defeats again the 3827, it’ll trigger a pivot point that could lead SPX to the green line at 3861 again. Probably the last gap (yellow area) would help to attract the price, as they work as magnets.
Now, let’s see the daily chart:
The index hit the purple trendline with astonishing precision, and this is why I love Price Action . Now we have a Harami , which usually has a random chance of working as a reversal, but in my experience, when it is near a support level, the odds increase.
The only thing that could ruin the bullish momentum would be if the SPX loses today’s low this Friday, along with the purple trendline. This could trigger a sharper correction in the weekly chart. The question is, would be a Price Correction , when the index drops to hit a previous support, or a Time Correction , when the index moves sideways, erratically, waiting for the 21 ema to catch it?
We’ll have our answers soon, and I hope this analysis helped you! Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates, and please, support this idea if you did read this far!
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Let's conquer the spaceI love the idea to travel in the space as a tourist, and I expect that it is not just me.
So after an IPO mania, there was consolidation with higher lows in 2020 and now there is an island gap on the daily chart.
If this gap won't be filled than new highs will come. I hope to see that but be that as it may with the gap I consider this as a buy and hold investment.
This forecast was created to support you, but you have to make your trading decisions independently! As nobody sees the future, I recommend you that always apply risk management during your trading!
SPX: Key Points we must keep in mind!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how SPX is doing today!
The volatility increased a lot recently, and this led to a false breakout from the support level at 3827, which is a Key Point that worked as support and resistance in the past, as evidenced by the black line. Also, the previous Gap area worked as a nice support as well.
Since the index is trapped between this black line and the ATH (green line at 3861), and the 21 ema is flat, we can say that we have a Congestion , and the SPX must break free from it, in order to either resume the bull trend, or collapse to lower levels.
The daily chart may give us more clues:
Yep, the 3827 is the Jan 8 All Time High, and it seems it is working as a support now. Not a surprise, as it is just following the Principle of Polarity of the Technical Analysis.
Today’s candlestick is quite impressive, so far, as we have a huge shadow under the candlestick’s body, indicating that the bull trend is still here, and we won’t see it changing until a clear reversal occurs ( Dow Theory, 6th tenet ).
If the index loses again the 3827 (and closes under it), then the SPX could drop again to the Purple Trendline, and this wouldn’t be enough to change the bullish bias. The index didn’t even retest the 21 ema yet, so the trend is very bullish, indeed.
As long as we don’t see a clear reversal sign, the index will just continue to climb . And if you like this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies, and please, support this idea! Check my latest analyses on the links below.
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Breakaway GapWhen the price opens above a significant resistance area it is known as a Breakaway Gap.
This is a bullish signal and indicates the start of a strong trend.
Although some would argue that gaps must be filled it is important that we identify what type of gap we are looking at.
Breakaway Gaps are usually backed by a positive announcement and in this case it is;
PUREgraphite Awarded US$5.57M from the U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE) for New Technology
Development
Price is currently sitting at a major Fibonacci level of %61.8.
It is possible that we at a major resistance however a move above this level
could indicate that we are likely to reach the next target of 4.75
-BreadCharts
TSLA: Annoying accumulation. What's in here for us?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Tesla is doing today!
As we discussed in my previous analysis (Jan 11), Tesla was giving some signs of weakness, and now all the signs were triggered, and we are in a boring congestion.
The 21 ema is flat, and we are quite close to the next resistance at $ 867.95, which is a key point Tesla must defeat in order to continue the bull trend. But all we can expect right now is that Tesla will move erratically, and it won’t resume the bull trend until it defeats the red line.
Maybe the daily chart will offer more clues:
In the daily chart we can see a small Pennant pattern, but nothing too convincing, in my view, as the pennant is too tight, and this makes the pattern more fragile and less reliable.
But the low volume indicates that this congestion is not to be taken seriously. Even if Tesla loses the Pennant pattern downwards, the 21 ema will be there to hold the price (the 21 ema is a good and reliable support level when Tesla is trending).
The bias is still bullish in the mid-term, but the short-term congestion can make Tesla move erratically for some days, even after the Earnings, so we have to be careful here. And if Tesla drops to the 21 ema, it won’t be a sign to panic at all (in fact, it could be just an opportunity to buy).
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NIO: Bullish signs above a Dual-Support level!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how NIO is doing today!
First, in the hourly chart NIO is forming a bottom near the $ 57.20, which is a support level. Also, the stock is inside what we call “ Trap Zone ”, between the 21 ema and the support level at the $ 57.20, and the price is supposed to move erratically when trading in this tight range. Usually, when the price escapes from a Trap Zone, we see a good explosion, the question is to which direction the price will explode.
If NIO explodes downwards, it can easily seek for the $ 50.50, helped by the gaps (yellow rectangles), which work as magnets when the price is trending. On the other hand, if the support level holds NIO, and if it trades above the 21 ema again, then the $ 66.75 is the next target.
Let’s see the daily chart now:
The bias is clearly bullish, and the drop seen in the past few days was just a pullback, given the low volume , indicating that this is not a real sell-off. So far, today’s candlestick is bullish, and this could be a buy sign for many who are out of NIO.
So, we have a pullback to the $ 57.20, the 21 ema is quite close to the price now too, so we are sitting above a very strong dual-support level. If NIO keeps this way, it’ll be a fantastic sign. The final confirmation that the bull will resume is if NIO defeats the $ 60.08, which is a key point in the hourly chart.
So far, NIO is reacting very well, and if you liked this analysis remember to support it ! And follow me to keep in touch with my analyses. You can check my previous NIO analysis in the link below.
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Talanx to close gap to peersTalanx's peers in the German market Munich RE and Allianz have since the COVID19 sell off in February 2020 recovered better than Talanx. Talanx will likely close this gap soon.
Talanx experienced a golden cross a couple of days ago, and with a rising RSI it is likely that Talanx will move towards 37 EUR over the coming weeks.
Long position entered in 32.13
Stop loss 29.8
Ride the droneThis breakaway gap leads this stock to a new high, and if it won't be fulfilled then fresh new highs will come.
I believe in drone companies!
This forecast was created to support you, but you have to make your trading decisions independently! As nobody sees the future, I recommend you that always apply risk management during your trading!
NIO: Should we panic or not?Hello traders and investors! It seems NIO is following the sell-off seen in the global markets today. Let’s see what’s going on.
Well, NIO is just doing what we discussed in my last analysis, and since it lost the 21 ema in the hourly chart it triggered the pullback to the $ 57.20, all according to the plan. If you missed my previous analysis, just check the link below . Also, NIO just filled the last gap, making it an Exhaustion Gap , so it is natural that the bull trend will get weaker from now on. But this is not a reversal sign , just a weakness sign.
The daily chart can give us more clues:
The $ 57.20 is not a random number, it was a previous resistance and according to the Principle of Polarity of Technical Analysis, it is supposed to work as a support now, and it seems this is exactly what NIO is doing.
If the pullback persists, it may touch the 21 ema in the daily chart, and this would be just an opportunity, since the chances are that this is just a harmless pullback.
Why do I think it is a harmless pullback? For 2 reasons. First, the trend is bullish, and according to the Dow Theory 6th tenet, trends persist until a clear reversal occurs , and so far, no clear reversal. Second, NIO has been dropping in the last few days, yes, but the volume is too low, indicating that this is not a true sell-off, no one is aggressively selling NIO, but just the market resting. If the volume were bigger, then we would have a different story.
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What is a price gap? How to trade the price gap?What is a price gap?
A price gap appears on the price chart as a blank space, and the blank space represents the time when there was no trading activity in that particular price level.
4 Types of Price Gaps
1. A breakaway gap happens when the security traded in a narrow range for some time, and then the security jumps to a different price level. This indicates interest in the security to test a different price level.
2. A common gap happens because of traders daily buying and selling activity.
3. A continuation gap is a measuring gap to determine if the current trend will continue.
4. An exhaustion gap is a gap that happens toward the end of a trending period. This can be a sign of a price reversal is about to happen.
How to trade the price gap?
Traders should trade in the direction of the breakaway gap and continuation gap. Traders should consider carefully before adding to their current position when they encounter an exhaustion price gap.
What are some of the reasons one may fail to trade the price gap?
Possibly due to misinterpreting the exhaustion gap as a continuation gap, and possibly misinterpreting the bull or bear trap as a breakout gap. Possibly it was initially a continuation gap or a breakout gap correctly identified, but suddenly the trend changed direction and trapped the traders.
Thank you for reading!
Greenfield
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Disclosure: Chart interpreted and article prepared by Greenfield. A market idea by Greenfield Analysis LLC for educational material only.
TSLA: Key Points to watch for the short/mid-term!Hello traders and investors! Let’s analyze Tesla today!
First, Tesla lost the support at $ 847, which is now working as a resistance, following the Principle of Polarity of Technical Analysis, but we are still inside what is called Trap Zone .
The price is in the area between its resistance and the 21 ema, and Tesla could explode to any direction from here. But we have some interesting key points to keep in mind.
The last gap wasn’t filled, but it still could be, making it an Exhaustion Gap . If that’s the case, the pullback could be seen in the daily chart as well.
Some might say Tesla did a Hanging Man candlestick pattern on Friday, I won’t disagree, but regardless if this is valid or not, we all must agree that if Tesla closes under Friday’s low, we’ll see something new. Tesla rarely closes under the previous day’s low when it is trending, and this could indicate that Tesla needs to rest a little.
Historically speaking, the 21 ema is a good support candidate for Tesla in the next few days, if the signs are triggered in the hourly chart. I think the $ 695 would be too optimistic.
Aside from Friday, the volume was quite low on Tesla during the last bull leg, which may indicate that this is the final phase of the bull trend, and Tesla needs to rest a little bit more before it can resume it.
I’m not saying that the trend is about to be reversed, as so far, we have no reversal sign. I’m saying that we may expect a correction, which is a good thing, as it usually offers opportunities for us all.
The way that Tesla will close today will be very important for the next few days, so, let’s keep our eyes open. And if you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies. Check the link below for more analyses, and remember to support this idea as well!
Thank you very much. Have a great Monday.
Has Zoom Lost its Zip?If any stock defined the age of Covid, it would be Zoom Video Communications. Now the videoconferencing disrupter could be showing that sentiment has truly moved on.
ZM has steadily trended lower since peaking near $590 on October 19. It fell on the November 9 vaccine news, and again December 1 -- despite a very strong quarterly report the night before.
ZM is now clinging to an early-September support level around $350. It could be a make-or-break level, with risk of further selling if it fails.
TradeStation data showed that call volume is down by about half since early December. (From about 147,000 calls per day to just 73,000.) That’s another sign of interest waning in the name.
Finally, valuations remain abnormally high -- even after its 40 percent drop. ZM's price/earnings is about 230 times and price/sales is more than 50 to 1.
(This chart features our Smart Relative Strength custom script.)
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EURJPY: go short for 133 pips (3.7 RR)Indications that suggest a move to the downside within the next few days:
- A completed liquidity run above last week's high, with subsequent bearish institutional candles
- Completed W formations that have reached reversal zones of fib confluences
- A liquidity void to the downside that needs to be covered
- Gann based time/price projection
PLUG: Key Points to keep in mind!Hello traders and investors! Let’s analyze PLUG today! I never did a public analysis about it, so, it’ll be my first time here.
First, we have a quite strong bull trend in the hourly chart, and we have some key points to keep in mind. The black line is an interesting point, as it was a resistance in the past, and a pivot point , so it is a good support candidate if PLUG corrects. Also, we have the 21 ema pointing up, which is another good sign.
We have a classic Breakaway Gap , which was the trigger of this movement. This tells me that the bull trend will persist a little longer, but we can’t discard that it’ll do pullbacks in the future. If you are afraid of a pullback, just look the daily chart:
Ok, so we can see the $ 46.95 from here too, but if PLUG loses this point and drops more, we’ll have a strong support area near the purple line region and the 21 ema. If PLUG hit there, I think this would be just an opportunity to buy (or buy more).
I know we may have an Evening Doji Star candlestick pattern if it closes this way, but again, if triggered, this would be a pullback sign, not a reversal sign.
Another thing to keep in mind is the high volume during this bullish leg, which is another good sign. This bull trend is real, so, pullbacks shouldn’t scare anyone around. If this movement had low volume, then it would be just speculation.
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TSLA: A new record high! But what if Tesla drops?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Tesla is doing today!
First, the stock is in an extremely strong bull trend, and there is not a single one pullback or reversal sign (at least not yet). The last candlestick was a Hanging Man pattern, but it wasn’t triggered yet.
We have some gaps around too, and they would work as targets if Tesla starts a pullback. If Tesla fills the last gap next week, we’ll have an Exhaustion Gap that could lead Tesla to lower levels.
In the short-term, Tesla has support at the $ 774 and at the $ 718, we also have a purple trendline that could hold the price . For now, we must watch out for this Hanging Man pattern.
Let’s see the daily chart now:
The trend is clearly bullish, and so far, there’s nothing telling me that Tesla will drop, as crazy as this sounds, and as stretched the chart is. If Tesla triggers the pattern seen in the hourly chart it’ll be a start, sure, but this will take some time to reflect in the daily chart.
What I find curious is the volume lower than the average during this bullish leg. This reinforces the possibility that Tesla may do a correction in the daily chart if it starts showing some weakness in smaller time frames. The big question is, how far could Tesla drop?
Historically speaking, Tesla respects the 21 ema quite well when it is trending . Right now, the 21 ema is near the previous top at the $ 695, but since it is a dynamic indicator, it’ll go up in the next few days.
But remember, so far, Tesla is in a strong bull trend, and no pullback or reversal was triggered yet. And if this analysis helped you, please, support it ! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies.
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