Bitcoin - All levels on the weekly chart (must know!)
You can use these levels for your trades, because I am pretty sure we will see a reaction on all of them! These levels will be respected even on the 1-minute chart, so do not underestimate them!
If one of these levels is destroyed, it's likely that the price will move to the next level specified on the chart.
On the bullish side of the chart, we have a strong level that will be tested very soon. It's the POC of the previous market structure and a strong horizontal level at 29765.
Above this level, there is an unfilled GAP between 37836 and 32399. This is the only major unfilled GAP on the Binance chart. These types of gaps are called fair value GAPS.
0.618 LOG SCALE FIB (38981) is definitely the strongest resistance out there. Also, we have a POC of the previous structure exactly at the same level. If the price gets to this level, we will experience a massive, brutal crash. Make sure you get informed when we reach this level, so follow me to stay updated!
0.618 LINEAR SCALE FIB (48553) is at confluence with the previous swing high. It's definitely a strong resistance as well, but if the bulls destroy this level, then it opens the gate to a new all-time high (69000), which is the last resistance!
On the bearish side of the chart, there is only 1 strong level at this point, and it's the previous swing low at 15476. I think we will reach this level sometimes later this year or next year!
2 unfilled GAPs below the current price are also strong supports. They are between 22602 - 26508 and 17176 - 19549. I am telling you that these gaps are extremely massive, and the chances of filling them are soooooo high, sooner or later.
If the bulls fail to hold the 15476 level, we will go to 10k! It's a possible scenario, and it could happen, and the chances are not low at all.
Otherwise, this is a bearish Elliott Wave count, which is still my main count. Of course, I also have a bullish count, but I will switch to it after we reach levels above 43k.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Gap
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FAIR VOLUE GAP
First, go to tradingview and search up Fair Volue Gap . Now, you can see your chart dashed lines, to see levels based on these pages. FVG and to make this set up a lot better though we want to clean this up and only show significant Fair Volue Gaps by going into the settings and selecting the auto threshold. What this does is allows the indicator to detect the average best size of each Fair Value Gap to filter out insignificant ones.
SPY/QQQ Market Bias & Top Stock Watches - 3/31/2023 - Bull GrindBias: Gap up over yesterday with room up to ~408. Support at 402.
Top Watches: Long - RUM, SJR, AI, CSCO, MSFT. Short - GNRC
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INTC - Breaking out of BaseINTC had been basing in sideway range between 24-31 since mid September 2022. It tested the neckline region between 30-31 at least 3 times and similarly the lower range between 24-25+ also 3 times (formed an imperfect triple bottom).
Yesterday it gapped above the neckline on strong volume and in the process, managed to close above the 200 day MA for the first time in a year. It is likely that the stock is now slowly emerging from it's base and any dips in the near future, especially back towards the neckline @30 +/- could be an 2nd opportunity to accumulate. Expect to see the 200 day MA flattening out and a Golden Cross materialising in the coming weeks.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Protect your trade with stop losses. Take care and Good Luck!
Market Bias & Top Stock Watches - 3/27/2023 - BullishBias: Bullish, will be watching for a move up to 400 area. 402.5 could be tested and broke today as well.
Top Watches: Long - PINS, TSEM, KEY, MSFT, FB. Short - BLK.
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SPX: Dangerous Top Sign Under a Major Resistance Level.• The SPX did a top sign yesterday, just after it hit its resistance at the purple trend line, which is connecting the previous tops;
• What’s more, the index lost the 21 ema. It seems Futures are stabilizing, but the situation is still problematic;
• In theory, if we don’t see a very strong bullish reaction, as soon as possible, the index would just keep correcting to the next support level, the 3,808;
• There was a gap (yellow square), which was filled yesterday, making this a possible Exhaustion Gap after the quick rally that started on Mar 13;
• So far, we don’t see any meaningful bullish reaction indicating that it will reverse, or at least reject the bearish sentiment;
• In order to avoid a bearish continuation, the index would have to react and reject yesterday’s candlestick, breaking the purple trend line in process. It all depends on how it’ll react today. I’ll keep you updated on this.
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Market Bias & Top Stock Watches - 3/23/2023 - Inside BearishBias: Choppy bearish inside day. Support at 392, resistance at 396.
Top Watches: Long - REGN, CPNG, ACN. Short - CHWY, MO SQ
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CRM - approaching neckline @ 195CRM had been basing for about 10 month now (since last May), the first sign that the worst could be over was when it broke above the 200 day movving average on 27 Jan, then a retest of this MA a month later on 27 Feb which validated the 200 day MA as the new "support".
Several days later on 2nd Mar, it gapped up strongly on earnings beat, stopping right at a significant neckline around 195. Then proceeded to pullback and almost closing the entire gap in the coming days. While the stock has been staging a recovery since hitting the low in Dec last year, it also experienced steep pullbacks on the way up. Buying the dips would certainly had been a better option in this chopping conditions.
Despite the volatility, what is clear however is that the stock is still on it's way to recovery, forming higher hi's (HH) and higher lo's (HL), with RSI staying at 50 or higher since early Jan, and a Golden Cross since 10 Mar.
It could attempt to break the neckline @ 195 again in the coming days and if and when it is finally able to break and stay above this level, then we could (hopefully) see more a more steady rise with pullbacks that are less steep (ie within 50% fib retracement of each mini up swing). And the next target could be around 220.
We can "predict" price targets but it is important to manage our risk with trailing stop losses and see what the market gives us.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
TSLA: Losing Momentum (For Now).• TSLA stock is stabilizing, trading between its key support and resistance levels;
• The key support is the 38.2% Fibonacci’s Retracement again. Most of the time, when TSLA loses the 38.2% retracement after bouncing above it for a while (like in this case), the 61.8% retracement becomes the next target – usually it ignores the 50% when this happens;
• What’s more, the 61.8% coincides with the Earnings Gap (blue square) at $146, making this area a very interesting target to work with;
• In order to avoid such a bearish scenario, TSLA would have to react as soon as possible, and break its key resistance area around $187;
• The $187 is the neckline of the H&S chart pattern that TSLA triggered last week, and it is very close to the 21 ema as well;
• I’ll keep you updated on this.
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XAUUSD; PROBABLE DROPDear Traders,
It is my pleasure to provide you with an update on the recent market activities of GOLD since the SVB Collapse.
There has been a substantial uptrend observed in the market, as the price of GOLD surged from 1809.90 to 1926.04, representing a notable 1,160 pips move. Based on our technical analysis, we anticipate a potential bearish reversal if the 1HTF candle fails to close above the resistance zone at 1921.63 - 1911.73. In this scenario, we expect sellers to push the price towards the downside to fill the gap created at the (1871.65 -1867.17 region) during the previous bullish run, before the continuation of the upward trend. However, if there is a close above the resistance region, we may see a break and retest pattern, followed by a bullish continuation.
Happy trading.
Bitcoin CME (Future): ...Inevitable drop after that!Hi everyone!
I know that there are not many people here who use the Future, but our goal is to always look for new information, in this case, it is possible, after the rally, an approach to the GAP. I don't know if we can close it, but knowing that the market will try to do that is already something useful, right?
I don't have the crystal ball yet (Amazon is a bit late in delivering 😢😊), but I think this drop might appear on our charts soon...
I'd also like to know your opinion about this my idea, especially if you don't agree (...you never stop learning, and I'm always ready for that!)
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS
(Click & Play on Chart below)
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N.B.: Updates will follow below
TSLA: Very Dangerous Situation.• TSLA is still dropping, and although it is in a support area, there’s no bullish reaction confirming a bottom sign yet;
• The key support is the $187, which is the baseline of a this congestion, and if TSLA loses it, we might see a bearish reversal structure;
• What’s more, the $187 could be the neckline of a Head & Shoulders chart pattern;
• If TSLA turns bearish, I see it filling the previous gap at $146 in the next few weeks;
• In order to avoid this scenario, TSLA would have to do a very good bullish reaction as soon as possible, and break its main resistance area;
• The main resistance area on TSLA is made by 3 resistances that are very close to each other: In the 1h chart, there’s the 21 ema and the purple trend line connecting the previous tops; In the daily chart, there’s the 21 ema. Only if TSLA breaks this resistance area we would see a frustration of this bearish thesis.
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TSLA: Dangerous Reaction in a "No Man's Land".• TSLA did a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern yesterday, and it is back to its 21 ema area;
• If TSLA loses this 21 ema, it could seek the next support at $187 again;
• TSLA is still in a congestion, and only a breakout of the $187 would reverse the bullish sentiment;
• On the other hand, it has to break the previous resistance at $214 in order to trigger this Bullish Flag and seek higher levels;
• So far, TSLA is in a ”no man’s land”, and any reaction inside this congestion shouldn’t be taken too seriously;
• What if TSLA loses the $187? Then the next target would be the gap around $146;
• TSLA is dangerously close to its support level, and the way it reacts in this area might dictate if we’ll see a downwards breakout or a bullish continuation to the resistance at $214. Either way, we’ll have our answer soon. I'll keep you updated every day on this.
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TSLA: A Bottom Pattern Above a Critical Resistance.• TSLA corrected last week, but it seems it just dropped to hit its support at $187, and now, it wants to bounce again;
• Last Friday, TSLA confirmed a bottom sign, as it broke the 21 ema again (which worked as a resistance last Thursday), it broke Thursday’s high, and it filled the previous gap at $198.52 (making it an Exhaustion Gap);
• All these bottom signs above the $187 line might indicate a further bounce;
• In theory, TSLA could climb to the next resistance at $214, but as long as we stay inside this congestion, between $214 and $187, TSLA won’t trigger any new movement indicating a continuation of the bull rally or a bearish reversal;
• This congestion could be a flag of a Bullish Flag chart pattern, and if TSLA breaks the $214 again, it’ll trigger this bullish continuation pattern. In this scenario, the first mid-term target would be the $237, which is a previous resistance in the daily chart, and it is near the 61.8% Fibonacci’s Retracement in the weekly chart;
• Only if it loses the $187 it might frustrate this bullish thesis.
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FLSY - Anatomy of a "Good" tradeHi All,
This is just to share on how I would approach a trade (as a trader).
1. Look for signs that the stock is forming a bottom (rounded bottom, inverted Head and Shoulders, Adam and Eve),
rising above 200 day MA, Golden Cross etc.
2. Check out its longer term charts (ie weekly and monthly) as you will likely see a clearer picture of it's direction.
3. Wait for some triggers (eg breaking above neckline especially on strong volume).
FLSY is a good example and had presented several good opportunities for several short term trades recently (could be held for longer term if one had entered earlier around 12.36 (1st Entry in chart) and didn't get stopped out.
1) On 2nd Feb (Initial Breakup), it gapped and broke up above this neckline (as well as it's 200 day MA), everything looks good except volume was just above average.
Well, this initial break up failed! Yes, it happens more often than we cared for, especially during the earlier phases of the trend, hence a conservative trader would prefer to wait for a pullback and long if the neckline proved to be a support.
2) on 13 Feb (1st Entry), FSLY once again gapped above the neckline and 200 day MA, but this time the volume was HUGE. However, this was prior to earnings announcements (2 days later, AMC). There is a possibility that earnings beat had been leaked, so if one decide to enter this trade, then it would probably be wise trade small.
3) on 16 Feb (2nd Entry), the day after earnings, which beat expectations (surprise surprise...LOL), many traders will FOMO into the stock especially as it rose above the previous candle's high around 14.20. This turned out to be a very profitabe trade (intraday).
Next day however, it formed a "Harami" candlestick (aka "inside bar"), showing indecision at this point. I would raise the stop to 15.30, slightly just under this "Harami" candlestick (which is already a 11% SL from its high @ 17.18). Those with a larger risk appetite could raise the stop to entry price (ie 14.20), allowing for larger volatility which could stop one out prematurely but be prepared to give back all profits if wrong.
4) FSLY had a steep pullback after all (due to poor market sentiment during the whole month of Feb) and found support only at 61.8% of it's large AB up swing. This was also within a prior "Resistance" but turned "Support" zone. It began to form small sideway candles (a signal to long if it starts to break above this "consolidation" range)
5) We had a Long trigger again last Friday (3rd Entry) as the stock started to rise decisvely above the consolidation high @ 14.20.
It turned out to be a large candle day, hence I would place initial stop loss just below this large candle (ie 13.55, a 5% initial SL).
There is a good chance this stop will not get hit (although nothing is guaranteed LOL).
Uptrend is underway for FSLY (above 200 day MA, with the shorter MAs (20 and 50) both rising. However, it could still experience large swings along the way and one has to manage the trade and raise the stops from time to time to protect profits. Just because one is stopped out does not mean the stock is spent. Sometimes it could be just periods of consolidation (short or long periods). Keep it on your watchlist as long as the stock has not shown signs of bearishness on a higher timeframe, set alerts for the next trigger.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
CRM Setting Up for Earnings Next WeekCRM reports earnings next week. This was a pre-earnings run that settled into an unstable sideways trend and then went down due to a lack of strong retail buying.
Volume is exceedingly low to the downside. This is not a sell short setup. Buy zone support is too close from the bottom formation.
NVDA had a similar pattern and gapped up on its earnings release news.
Market Bias & Top Stock Watches - 2/24/2023 - Bear ChopBias: Expect early bounce. We are in an area with a lot of support and price action, could just chop around today.
Top Watches: Long - VRRM, BYND, SQ, KTOS. Short - BA, INTC, HD, ADBE.
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META - falling wedge pattern (bullish)After a strong 28% gap post earnings on 2nd Feb, META has now given up about half its post-gap gain. However, its longer term bullish picture remains intact if we look at the following factors:
1. Stock is still trading above both its 20 and 200 day moving average (the latter of which is beginning to flatten out, a precursor to turning up)
2. A falling wedge pattern is forming (potentially bullish)
3. Bullish divergence forming between price and RSI (*see Note below)
A break out of this wedge could be an opportunity to long again if one has taken profit earlier or has gotten stopped out as stock went into this steep retracement. I would put initial stop loss slightly below the most recent pivot low (which will be the candle just prior to the wedge breakout).
However bear in the mind the stock's momentum could be slower for now until the next catalyst appear.
*Note that while a bullish divergence could materialize into a short term bounce lasting about 2 to 3 candles, it does not translate into a longer term trend change on it's own.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
Market Bias & Top Stock Watches - 2/17/2023 - BearishBias: Bearish. Easy room to 405, could break support and see 400.
Top Watches: I will update this post with my top four long and short ideas between 9:25 - 9:30 EST.
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Follow @JLaing for a timely morning bias of the market like this, top stock watches, and live day trading every morning!