Start Low, Run High On WednesdayLooks like the bottom is on track for early tomorrow Minute wave 5 should end tomorrow morning simultaneously ending Minor wave 5 and Intermediate wave 1 inside of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave C. Minute wave 1 was only 3 hours long, and Minute wave 3 was only 2 hours long. This would mean Minute wave 5 should be 2 hours or less in duration. The quickest way to the bottom in only 2 hours is another gap down at the open. Right now, the models are not projecting a drastic bottom and they pretty much align with the initial projection for Minor wave 5 the other day which can be seen here where strongest model agreement had Minor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading tomorrow:
The originally forecast bottoms for Minor wave 5 are in the center of the chart above and the newest levels projecting the end of Minute wave 5 are toward the left. The light blue levels for each are based on the most specific dataset relationally consistent with the current wave. The yellow levels are slightly less specific and the white levels are the broader of the datasets. The pink levels (only one is visible and it is on the left at a 98.88% retracement) are specific to waves which are Minute wave 5 in Minor wave 5, in Intermediate wave 1, inside Primary wave 1. This particular level indicates there have been occasions where wave 5 ends prior to go beneath wave 3’s bottom which is a significant possibility here. The models strongly favor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading but should only last 2 hours at most.
My forecast would be a gap down to open with the bottom between 4450-4462. Intermediate wave 2 should begin after this point and lead the market upward for the rest of the day. I will crunch the data tomorrow once Intermediate wave 1 is confirmed to have ended, but Intermediate wave 2 will now retrace the drop performed by Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 2 levels are temporarily plotted and could see the market reach a peak between 4530-4560 by sometime early to the middle of next week. Intermediate wave 2 does not require a large boost and if it really takes 4-6 days to climb less than 100 points it could mean minimal gains over the coming days. The inflation report could also cause a large gain at first which would be wave A up inside of Intermediate 2. The reality of the data being delayed and folks considering the rising fuel costs could bring the market down again in the wave B down portion of Intermediate wave 2 and the final wave C leg up could get us to the target top.
The CPI number on Thursday will likely assist in boosting the market up, however, the inflation data is for July and fuel prices have gone up significantly since the end of July which is not likely factored into the CPI number or the prices of goods moving forward. I figure the rising fuel costs alone will add to the downfall that is in the making again. The rise in the price of goods likely will not hit the inflation numbers for at least another month.
