USDJPY Long"Trade What You See"
I see an unfilled gap, and it worked out for me last week.
Long at bounce from support to fill gap.
Gapdown
USDJPY Bullish for 100+ pips to Close GapAfter half the opening day of weak USD and somewhat strong JPY, this pair fell to the support.
Now it's time to buy, as can be seen by the lower wick of the bullish candle.
Mainly, it should go up to fill the gap, as markets do in about 95% of cases - sooner or later.
AUDJPY Short at Major Resistance & Broken TLInteresting setup here, and it supports several other setups that I've just published as well.
On this chart, is an approximate support trendline drawn from last week. Now, when this week opened, AJ gapped down, but was able to fill the gap before the 4h candle closed.
With the following observations:
1. The gap filled, so no need to worry about that anymore,
2. Price is below the trendline, closing on the 4h candle as I type this,
3. The upper shadow of the 4h candle is longer than the body, indicating bearish pressure.
Now, If we assume AUD weakness against JPY based on this chart, and in my previous post; against USD, put together with my "buy" position on EURAUD since it has reached a well-tested support, I can safely conclude that AUD is weak for the foreseeable future.
That leads to sell signals on many AUDxxx pairs, and buy signals on xxxAUD pairs.
EURCAD Bullish PredictionSo far, EC has followed my prediction by going down to the area of the support TL.
However, you can also notice how the gap down was not filled when markets opened this week. This supports my prediction of a bounce off the TL and a short term bull movement to at least the previous week's close, if not to the resistance zone around 1.5000
All I need now is a relatively strong bullish candle that bounces price off the TL and up 200 pips or so.
Deutsche Bank failed to reach deal with DojWe saw rumors of a deal that will be conclued between DB and the Doj september 30rd, pumping DB hard, bloomberg revealed it's false.
Prepare to short at the opening, and anticipate a gap down.
Target 9.89, can go deeper.
AUDUSD short AUDUSD gaped below hourly support visible on 15 min chart, Daily bias bearish so I would bet for short here also.
Target 3R units minimum.
SPX - Will the Fed decision lead to a breakdown in SPXThe SPX after a gap down has been consolidating in a small range and any upmove in the index is witnessing selling pressure. 2115 - 2110 are the important support levels to watch a break below these support levels would lead to a faster sell off in the index and a retest of 1820 level would not be ruled out.
Dr REDDY - ALL SET TO FILL GAP (BUY)There was a gap down observed on daily chart which is been not filled up for a long time. Now the price action breaks out from a rectangular consolidation and shall reach out to 3280 levels in order to fill up that GAP.
Target: 3280
Stoploss: 3070
Watch Support to Hold The PositionSupport is quite far so we will expect another round of 3rd gap down due to upcoming good news in US.....
NZDUSD Possible Wave-countDespite its choppiness since the start of this year, the NZDUSD pair has traced out what may be considered to be a respectable impulse wave.
By this count, wave 2 and wave 4 held at their respective 61.8% retracements of wave 1 and 3, and wave 5 is an ending diagonal whose subwave ii retraced a bit more sharply than normal. Additional reasons to believe that the impulse wave has ended are the tweezer top formation just shy of the psychologically significant round number 0.7000 reinforced by a spike in volume.
If this count is correct, we are currently in a corrective wave down. Trading this wave is doubly safe because the larger macro trend is down, despite the upward momentum since the start of the year. Furthermore, even if we are in the start of a new uptrend, we might expect a sharp correction in the ensuing second wave.
Bearing in mind that ending diagonals often retrace swiftly to their point of origin, the safest way to trade the NZDUSD in the near future would be to buy the breakdown of the lower ascending trendline.
A more conservative approach would be to wait for the likely pullback in wave B since A is the third touch of the trendline, and short anywhere in the entry zone between 0.6885 and 0.6965.
The hard stop should be just above 0.7000. Take profit is at the bottom of wave 5 around 0.6500.
A key price level to take note of is 0.6755, which is the top of wave 3 as well as the possible base of corrective wave A. Consider scaling out and locking in profits in this region.
A possible scenario for this wave-count being incorrect is if wave 4 completes at the point currently marked subwave ii. If so, we are in the final subwave of an ending diagonal, in which case a violent reversal is to be expected at 0.7000. Either way, a sufficiently well placed stop just above 0.7000 should not be hit.
Best of luck!
Double Bat on NZDUSD daily chartThe complex correction of the NZD/USD pair has (finally) resolved to complete a Bat pattern that it had been struggling towards since early Feb. While not the cleanest of Bat patterns, there are several good reasons to trade this setup.
1) Harmonics: 2 consecutive Bat patterns are now discernible on the daily chart. The first Bat is slightly imperfect because its D leg completed at 96.4 instead of 88.6. However, the internal retracements are sound, and the D leg did not strictly exceed point X. The internal retracements of the second Bat are almost perfect, the extended whipsawing in the CD leg notwithstanding.
2) Elliott Wave: Point D of the second Bat is also the termination point of wave 5 of an impulse wave. As such, price should now retrace at least 38.2% to 61.8%.
3) Candlesticks: The first candle after Point D of the second Bat gapped down, and closed at the 78.6 level of the XA leg of the first Bat. The next candle engulfed it, and had almost no wicks. These factors suggest strong downward momentum.
While it is possible to enter on a market order now, a safe entry would be on a close below the daily resistance-become-support line at 0.67192, which is also the 61.8 level of the XA leg of the first Bat. The safest entry would be after a breakdown and retest of this level.
Profit may be taken around 0.64294, a daily support zone, although scaling out of the trade at the 61.8 level of the second Bat at 0.65281 is advised, given its confluence with the 23.6 level of the first Bat.
This is a high probability set up, and allows a stop loss to be placed above the D leg of the second Bat at 0.68189, instead of the more traditional 100% level at point X. In other words, Elliott Wave and candlestick analyses of the harmonic pattern allows for a more precise level to be used; if price goes above this level, it would greatly reduce the confidence in this setup, and the position should be exited before further unnecessary losses.
Risk-to-reward ratio is just shy of 4:1.
All the best!
GAP_UP_PLOTTINGIdentify the GAP up and GAP DOWN opening and plot the line.
Strategy when GAPUP identified Buy and target for few 100pips.
1.Color automated Lime candle shows one ahead candle of gapup
2.Black candle shows gapdown.
3.Line drawn for GapUp,GapDown
S&P500 Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern This is easier seen on the 5min chart. The S&P 500 has put in an Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern. This is a reversal pattern. Look to buy the Neckline or the Breakout (shown on chart). Look for Targets around Gap fill.
RL breaks down below previous supportEarlier this month RL broke down below recent support and beyond the consolidation zone where price has been trading since mid-2013. The downtrend began to develop a few days after the earnings announcement on 4th February.
Throughout the majority of February price has been trading between the lows of 2014 and 2012 - with 2012 acting as support and 2014 as resistance. On Friday price broke below the 2012 pivot, with a very bearish bar, and the weakness looks likely to continue.
With the next major support zone at around $105 there is some room for price to continue to fall. There may be a retest of the 2012 pivot and, on the weekly chart, the 50ma is still above the 200ma (we would ideally like to see the weekly 50ma cross below the 200ma to give us an additional reason to short this stock).
RL is trading against the markets in general and, if entering this trade, it would be a longer-term sell (to give the bear trend time to develop). With over $25 to the next support level this could be a good opportunity for those who are happy to short stocks at this time.
YELP breakdown but can it fill the gap?Initially, when I saw the gap down on YELP, I thought this stock looked good to short for a near-term gain. I usually concentrate on the weekly and daily timeframes and, with the gap down breaking through previous support, the $50 half figure and with higher volume, this looked like a great shorting opportunity - as there appeared to be no further support for some time.
But a quick glance at the monthly chart showed a gap up in 2013 - at the same level YELP is trading right now. If this is an island reversal pattern then we should continue to see price fall - as analysis from the daily timeframe suggests.
But, as I was considering YELP as a near-term opportunity, price could drop too fast - possibly gapping down again past the lower value of the 2013 gap up ($42.84). This means I may not get a position filled at the price I want.
The safer option here is to wait for price to trade below $42.84. If this is indeed a reversal island then price should continue its bearish move down beyond this point.
JOY gaps down past previous supportI last looked at JOY on 12th December 2014 when it gapped down (confirming an inverted cup and handle formation).
At the time there were still a few support zones to tackle - plus earnings. So although I felt that in the longer-term price would continue to fall I wanted to wait for price to clear these hurdles.
Unfortunately this meant waiting for the cup and handle measured move to complete - which it did on yesterday's gap down. However, it was worth the wait as after the earnings announcement price retested the cup and handle rim (with support turning into resistance). And there was still the 2010 pivot low Of $42.45 to clear.
Now there is no obvious further support until the $30 zone. Worth shorting if you are happy to sell in an overall bull market - although if I take this trade I will want added confirmation by waiting for price to break below the $40 round number.
FCX gaps down below $20FCX has just gapped down below $20 producing a potential bear flag on the weekly chart. This is a good near-term trading opportunity but this is very short-term only - as earnings are due out on 22nd January. However, if the downtrend stays in play, earnings could add to the bearish momentum.
It took over 18 months for price to break below the June 2013 pivot low but, since then, the bear trend has developed well. Price didn't really retest the $26 level. But the recent December/January pullback acted as an appropriate countermove - without being so prolonged that we could not take yesterdays gap as a shorting signal.
Volume was also high on the gap down. It would've been preferable if the bar had been a bit more bearish but, with the gap and $20 offering resistance, a near-term short looks good.
JOY gapped below $50 but earnings dueJOY caught my eye because of the inverted cup and handle formation - which Friday's gap down confirmed.
Initially I thought this could be a good near-term shorting opportunity because price had broken below $50 and recent support - and the measured move could've made this worth considering for a quick profit.
However, on closer inspection there are a series of support levels just a few dollars away and, in addition to this, earnings are due on 17th December - just two days away. This would probably not give me enough time to profit from even a short-term trade so I have to stand aside.
Although I suspect this is likely to go lower, that's not how I trade. I shall wait and see what happens after the earnings announcement.
DRQ gaps down on higher volumeIf you like shorting stock in an overall bull market DRQ offers a good opportunity. It gapped down yesterday on higher volume giving a good signal to take a near-term sell.
This stock is already in a solid downtrend, trading below the 200dma. It recently formed a double top in a downtrend, broke recent support and retested it - and now it has gapped down on higher volume.
The 2010 pivot high and $70 zone will act as support to price, however, but this is around 400 points away right now which is plenty for a near-term trade.
NBL bearish gap downThere are a lot of energy stocks, which have gapped down, on our list today. Many provide near-term sell opportunities but I felt the best of them was NBL.
Looking at pivot highs and lows on the weekly chart, NBL seemed to have plenty of room to manoeuvre (about 800 points before the next major support). The daily gap down (on higher volume) broke below longer-term pivot highs (and the recent pivot low) as well as $50. The breakout bar was bearish and price is trading below the 200ma (weekly and daily).
While I don't trade fundamentals I do feel that it is the fall in oil prices which may well have affected so many energy stocks. So trading oil may be a more straightforward alternative to shorting correlated stocks.
RIG gaps down on higher volumeRIG has been bearish since the 2008 high, so with the last bar gapping down on higher volume a near-term sell opportunity looks like a good play.
Price had been going mostly sideways, since the end of 2012, offering a strong support at around $38. When this was broken and retested (turning support into resistance) in August/September 2014 a new bear trend began to develop. This would've been very early to short this stock so a break of the more recent pivot low of $27.91 offered a firmer opportunity, for longer-term trend traders.
Trading the last bars gap down (on higher volume) offers a near-term sell opportunity - with the next level of support at around $18 -$19. However, I am not looking to enter any trades today due to the US holiday yesterday.
SDRL gaps down on higher volumeThere are three reasons why I am not looking to take any new trades today. Yesterday was a bank holiday in the US, today is apparently a half trading day, and finally it's the last trading day of the month. To me this means volatility may be affected and I'd rather stand aside than get whipsawed.
However, if I were to take a near-term short opportunity the set up on SDRL looks very good. Price as been trading below the 200dma for a coupe of months and the last trading bar gapped down below recent support and also support from the low of 2010. There is some way to go before the next support level. Volume was up on the gap - adding to the likelihood of a continued move down.
