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European Gas March 2023: Bullish and Bearish FactorsThe idea has two parts: fundamental and technical analysis . The latter is based on the weekly chart. On the fundamental side , several essential and minor factors affect and could affect March 2023 price change. Let's divide them into three groups. Bullish : Russian shutdown of gas supply to Europe Russia has cut its European flows for the last months so that a total shutdown would be possible. Russian gas remains crucial for the European economy despite the American armada of LNG ships. Freeport LNG plant Restart Shift The company plans to restore the plant in January 2023. A possible postponement would support TTF prices in the winter season. Limitations of US Gas Exports Last winter, some US Senate members suggested limiting or prohibiting US LNG export. They estimated that the change would increase US gas supply for the internal US market, especially for New England, which is dependent on the import of gas from the gas-production states getting gas via pipelines and LNG. They said the prohibition would reduce high gas prices for customers and industry. In July, LNG winter 2023 prices for New England touched a record high of $40/MMBtu, while Henry Hub traded at about $8.6/MMBtu. I suppose that senators would return to the idea, especially since the US elections are in November. Although the risk is low, its realization could dramatically affect the TTF price assessment. Analysts and think tanks have considered possible Russian gas cuts but haven't accessed a potential US gas supply reduction. French Nuclear Plants Outages Since the end of 2021, the French nuclear industry has been weak with planned and unplanned maintenance. As a result, nuclear output has lost more than 40% YoY of its output. While serious issues are unlikely to arise, new minor obstacles could buoy TTF prices. Dry Summer The continuation of the European 2022 dry summer led to abbreviated hydropower production. On the back of hydropower reduction, natural gas-power generation increases its output and gas consumption, driving subdued gas injection into storage facilities. Subdued gas injection in summer means less gas for winter, creating a possible gas deficit. Bearish: Slowing European Economy and Demand Destruction High inflation induced by the monetary policy of 2020-2021 provokes a decline in real incomes and makes some industrial production unprofitable or near break-even. These debilitate aggregate demand, particularly industrial output of fertilizers, ceramics, and other chemicals. Industries that are heavily reliant on gas are cutting their gas consumption today. Lasting historically high gas prices would promote a decrease in gas utilization. The demand destruction could happen among all consumers: power, industrial and individual. A new recession is near. ECB monetary policy with a growing rate also adds problems to the economy. The rate is still tiny, but debt bubbles are sensitive to interest rate change. The bust of bubbles would drop economic growth and curtail gas demand pushing TTF prices down. Slowing world economy The world economy suffers from high prices losing economic growth momentum. A move into a recession would trigger a decline in gas consumption lowering LNG gas prices and letting LNG producers increase LNG sendout to Europe. Voluntary Demand Reductions of 15% and Gas Rationing Energy ministers of Europe adopted plans to voluntarily cut gas demand by 15% from August until March 31, 2022. In case of emergency, like near zero Russian flows, the voluntary reduction changes to mandatory. i.e., gas rationing. The actions could divert rising prices. Covid Lockdowns in Europe Europe has prepared different measures to withstand possible gas issues in winter. Besides voluntary reduction or rationing Europe could return to the lockdowns of 2020, when gas consumption dramatically went down because industrial production of goods collapsed. Since June 2022, the media has published news about a new variant of Covid. Countries could impose Covid-related limitations this fall. Unstable gas consumption and gas shortage would drive for a Covid or climate lockdown. A good measure to cut gas demand and destroy the economy. Covid Lockdowns in China Despite possible lockdowns of 2022-2023 in Europe, lockdowns in China happened in the last months and could be imposed again. An effect of prohibitions has hit the Chinese economy and cut gas consumption resulting in freeing up the supply for other consumers, i.e., Europe. New Chinese lockdowns would mean more gas for Europe. Joker : The joker that could be a bullish or bearish driver is the weather. They can't predict winter weather today. Lasting temperatures above season norms in winter could be a lifesaver for Europe, dropping gas consumption and its prices. Cold spells and lingering temperatures under the winter season average would lift prices significantly. Near-average temperatures would put the significance of the factor on hold. While in summer, it is vice versa. Temperatures above the norms slow gas storage injection and slightly increase a lack of gas risk in the winter season. On the technical side , there are no resistance levels cause the contract is traded near its record high. Only psychological levels like €200/MWh , €300/MWh , and higher. On the bulls' side, there are many support levels. For those practicing buy a bounce trading , essential levels are €125/MWh , €100/MWh , and €86/MWh . The last one developed in the December 2021-April 2022 period. I estimate that Gazprom made a significant contribution to its existence. Gazprom's export price to Europe, which was pegged to a fusion of lagged prices of fossil fuels, including TTF, was near to €86/MWh . So when the market price rose significantly above the level, market participants cut their demand because Gazprom sold cheaper. When the price tried to break through €86/MWh and went down, Gazprom trimmed its flows to Europe. All in all, this helped the company to control its revenues on the same level. Since then, it has not been the case because Gazprom has changed its approach. Finally, I am afraid to forecast the price on the expiration date. I suppose the price would remain volatile, and we could see spikes above €200/MWh in the winter season. Thank you for your reading, and have profitable trading! Comment your thoughts!
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by Nikita_Kalinin
Nat Gas Accumulation TimeWe're coming in to a zone near the $3 mark where we belive it would be prudent to start accumulating long positions in natural gas. Using Elliott Wave anaylsis in conjuction with fundamental analysis we're pretty certain there's a huge upside to natural gas. We're unsure as to whether this will be a wave 3 or a wave C to the upside, but ultimately that doesn't matter as both will provide us with an upside target of at least $10+. Fundamentally there will be a bigger surge in natural gas demand as it has become evident that the world is not ready for renewable energy to support our power needs (if it ever will be able to support us entirely) so 'cleaner' fuels such as natural gas will be used in the immediate and near term to meet the global energy demands. As always with trading we don't need to know everything, we just need to be on the right side of the movements to make money and we're pretty certain this is going to be a huge move to the upside in the coming weeks and months.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by RAA_Trading
4
NATURAL GAS-Pt.1- Correction about to complete?Hello traders, here is our view about natural gas. As we can see from the monthly time frame, natgas completed an impulse after breaking a big descending triangle. After reaching a top of 9.995, natgas created a head and shoulders pattern that coincided with a 535 structure to the downside, as showed in the main chart. Then, wave 3 of C seems to be completed with an ending diagonal. If the bullish macro count is in now we should go for another impulse up. Alternatively, we may get a (C) wave to complete the monthly retracement higher than 10. In the latter case to move to 9.995 would only be a (A) cycle correction of the descent from 2005 high of 16.477. In both cases, we expect a big buying opportunity coming soon in natural gas. We are not taking long positions now for wave iv of C since sentiment in retail brokers is over 90% long. When ALL the retailers are buying, who is selling to them? Who is gonna buy to actually put upward pressure on price? This is why extreme sentiment is a contrary indicator. We will update as soon as we see a long setup.
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by GMR-Capital
9
CEI | Low Float Oil Play | BounceCamber Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) in Kansas, Missouri; Louisiana; and Texas. As of December 31, 2021, its total estimated proved producing reserves consists of approximately 73,800 barrels of oil equivalent, including 48,400 barrels were crude oil and NGL reserves, and 152,400 thousand cubic feet were natural gas reserves. The company was formerly known as Lucas Energy Inc. and changed its name to Camber Energy, Inc. in January 2017. Camber Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
CLong
by DivergenceSeeker
3
#ONG/USDT [Ontology Gas]: Bollinger_Breakout Super_TrendWe've identified both a Bollinger Band breakout and a Super Trend pattern on the ONG/USDT chart. Both indicators are signaling a bullish trend, with the Bollinger Band indicating a potential bullish trend as the price has moved outside of the upper band and the Super Trend showing a bullish trend. This is a stronger bullish signal as both indicators are aligned. It may be a good idea to consider buying at the current price zone and targeting higher levels. However, it is still important to consider other factors such as overall market conditions, and other technical indicators before making a trade decision.
by Crypto2AF
Natural Gas / NG - Act II: A Number That Starts With "2"My previous call on natural gas made Sept. 19 has come to fruition, achieving all three targets, and in a shorter than expected period of time: Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My Beer The question I've asked myself for the last few days is simply: Now that the June lows have been taken out, is it time for a reversal? And frankly, I don't believe a (sustained) reversal is imminent, mostly because I really do believe $18 NG1 is incoming and these market makers, who are total maniacs, will not make it so easy for one to go long. Things to keep in mind when we're so close to the end of the month and major lows have been achieved: 1. Look out for bounces as monthly candle wicks are painted 2. Look out for monthly candle highs to be painted in the first days/weeks of November 3. Big volume gaps between $6.3 and $5. "It's only 23%!" 4. Big bounce from $4.9 to $5.3 June lows are likely Trendlines are astrology, for real. Stop believing in them. No banks and no trading floors at Shell, Exxon, Aramco, Gazprom, are sitting there thinking of what to do with billions of dollars of inventory and drawing a diagonal line between two lows and thinking to themselves about such and such "support." That is truly absurd. Yet, you should pay attention to these things because, to the contrary, they're used to fleece dumb money. The markets revolve around fleecing dumb money, and there are entire funds with billions of dollars of dumb money. To put this trendline into perspective, although it looks reasonable on the 4H, look how absurd this is on the monthly: That being said, it's also reasonable on the 1W and 1D charts: & We are notably at that point, below the psychological $5 level and more or less at the trendline, and at the end of the month. When June made its Armageddon move downwards it came right as the monthly contract closed, so I personally do not expect a repeat of the same situation. I think a bounce to $5.3 is more or less inevitable, and I suspect rather than break through it and act like Silver/Gold/WTI has retracing to newer highs, it will bounce off the low and manufacture the kind of "resistance" found in technical analysis books to encourage late shorts. Early November may actually show us a more bullish impulse back to $6, but keep in mind that to get back to that mid-October weekly gap would more or less fill the entire October monthly bar with a November wick, so that gap is likely a breakaway gap that will stay in place for some time. Anyways, what I expect to see is after some retrace to catch late shorts and squeeze and break them, as well as to exploit early bulls, we will see a retrace, one that won't last long and will probably be quickly accompanied by another breakaway gap. I believe that natural gas will, in a very quick period of time, actually print a number as low as $2.9, a move that will be accompanied by WTI also setting new lows and approaching $50, as I noted in a recent call: WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global Conflict Europe has already filled their coffers with $9-10 US LNG delivered via boat and until they need to refill the barrels in a few months after Freeport is re-opened, prices should be suppressed as producers and funds get net long on energy. The reason is, problems between NATO and Russia and problems between the World and the Chinese Communist Party under the new found "Emperor" Xi and his delusional miscalculation to stay attached to Marxist-Leninism and communism will lead the Party to either attack Russia alongside NATO or to pinch both Russia and NATO with an assault on Taiwan. Energy will be _extremely_ expensive everywhere once the global conflict breaks out. But as with all such moves, first come lows that are more uncomfortable than early bulls and scared bears are comfortable with. 2023 will not be a pleasant year, so make sure you do your utmost to have a proper Christmas with your family and act like a good person. Whoever you are who is reading this, what I want to tell you is this: If you want a future, you need to start by first rejecting communist culture, especially all things Marxist-Leninism. Next, you need to reject the Chinese Communist Party, for it is guilty of the crime of live organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong and will be purged by history. Third, you need to start to emphasize virtue and improve your conduct and morality on a foundation of traditional human culture. I am not talking about dogma, and I am not talking about religion. Both of those are totally useless. I am talking about a rational understanding of what it means to be "a human being," the things that have allowed this civilization and this cycle of history to persist over the last 5,000 years, founded on the back of the Chinese dynasties. There are so many lessons in history. I hope that whoever has the fortune to encounter my words can walk out of the catastrophe. But if your thoughts are unrighteous, then if you can't, you can't. Regrets, however, will be no help at all. It's just like poker: you have to figure it out and have your bets placed before the cards are turned face up. Once the truth is revealed, everything is fixed.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
14