Will October be Déjà vu for NATURAL GAS?Quick observation here. NG traders that are deep into the commodity's technical dynamics agree that Natural Gas is trading on patterns that are cyclical on the very long-term.
If cyclical behavior and seasonality play a big part on this, then why should the month of October be any different? Every 4 years since 2012, NG makes a bottom around March-April, then rises aggressively up until October, which initiates a pull-back. That pull-back appears to be a Bull Flag for a new High a few months later.
Will history repeat itself?
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
!! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> AxelShadah
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GAS
Natural Gas - Forget it's winter, demand and price should go upWe have a clear 5 waves rise here as you can see.
Therefore, I suggest to only look for shorts now until we reach the 50%-61.8% retracement zone.
NAT GAS CRASH trend possible - the best low coffee timeNAT GAS CRASH trend possible - the best low coffee time
Nat gas looks to get a breakdown trend - 2.60 possible as net trend.
Recovery trend on NAT GAS - Coffe time at lowRecovery trend on NAT GAS - Coffe time at low
2.40 2.70 recovery trend.
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Bearish Reaction is Highly Probable
natgas broke and closed below an expanding wedge pattern.
because the price is currently testing a strong daily structure,
chances are high that the price will drop.
target levels:
2.05
2.0
the safest zone to sell from is the expanding area between the support of the wedge and the last higher low.
SELL NATURAL GAS BELOW 20 EMA FOR 50 EMANATURAL GAS MOVING CLOSURE TO 50 EMA, A LITTLE SUPPORT AT 20 EMA. ADVICE TO SELL BELOW 20 EMA FOR TGT OF 50 EMA, A SHAPE OF REVERSE CUP WITH HANDLE IS ALSO FORMED IN MCX ON DAILY CHART. KEEP EARNING.
Natural Gas At Support - Elliott wave analysisHi traders,
Looking at natural gas, we are still tracking a correction in wave (4). Currently it is trading at 2.4 support level, which can be first potential turning point zone, however, in case of a deeper corrective W-X-Y, price can retest 38.2 Fibo. retracement and the base channel line (2.2 area), where support can also be seen.
GAS/BTC - a map for the futureGAS/BTC - a map for the future
Gas retraced more than 98% against BTC, which is quite a lot, and started what seems an accumulation phase after 11th September 2019
The green line will be a strong support, and the first RED line will be a possible Target at 2777.
If it will b able to close a weekly candle above it, the other long term goals could be 4440.
Lastly, if it would be able to close a weekly candle above 4440, it could aim to 6111
As you can see 4440 and 6111 are less colored because are less probable.
The Pink dates could be a moment where the price tend to bounce up or slow any eventual fall.
In the short term, it is possible that the price could be rejected by the red eye.
LS MASTER TRADING SYSTEM
NATURAL GAS Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Bullish on the 4H MA50 or if the Channel Up breaks upwards.
Target: 2.650 and if 2.680 breaks (+12% from low) potential extension towards 3.000 (+27% from low).
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
!! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
NOG is worth a gambleNOG is a oil and gas company in Minnesota, which is an interest stock that poped up on r/pennystocks and think it might be worth to toss in some money into it. It hasn't perform well at all, yet the reason for this gamble is that the election is coming up and Republicans are pro oil and gas as further green technology is being developed, yet the Democrats want to go full green with their green new deal which could destroy the oil and gas and company.
News
-Elections are coming up this November for the US and Minnesota is a key battleground state. It was Democrat in 2016, yet this year its classified as a battleground state and following 2016 Democrats won with a 1.5% margin. Pretty dam close. Current polls shows that biden was winning by 18, yet now only 2.
Source: projects.fivethirtyeight.com
-ER wasn't great, yet could be due to fact of the covid 19. According to USAtoday as of 8/25, Minnesota is growing in the number of cases.
TA
-Now the upside potential out weights the downside with .6377 being on the table which is a 8.6% drop in price. The upside ranges from 5.7%-50% in the short term from tagets of .742, .8515, and 1.0494.
-This stock is in a long term downtrend, yet high vpvr shows a range of .742-.8515 would be in the realm of possibilities and could be a nice short term trade.
-MACD is rising which is bullish
-RSI is just overbought, yet could be overcome with sideways movements or extreme volatility coming soon.
Final Thoughts
My political view has no affect, yet I would assume a Trump victory would push this stock higher or lower. Whatever party you are a small gamble in a small oil and gas stock from a battle ground state wouldn't be a bad idea. I took a position in this stock today just to see where it goes when we get close to the election/debates/ and after the elctions. If movement starts going up showing massive buys you could suspect the oil sector will being pushing up rapidly. So in the meantime watch the polls, if they are even worth to watch after 2016, to see who Minnesota favors and watch tweets from Trump about Oil and Gas.
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Chart Forming a Top?Bullish factors: NG Natural gas price has been rallying for the past month reaching $2.5 level on increased consumption during summer months, improving LNG flows reaching 5.1 bcf/d in mid-August, and two tropical storms in the Gulf area threatening natural gas production. The fundamentals remain bullish going into mid September.
Bearish factors: Production is steady at about 92 bcf/day, while consumption has been declining to 83 bcf/day lately on cooling temperatures. Two tropical storms, Marco and Laura, are not expected to produce substantial disruption to natural gas production, but may produce loss in demand due to cooling temperatures and power outages.
Technical analysis: Divergence between price and volume is pointing toward a potential top. On a daily chart , RSI is above 70, approaching overbought territory. We have an unclosed gap at $2.77 level, which may be the next top.
National demand is expected to be cooling going into September. Overall demand will be driven largely by LNG exports, which are expected to remain steady at around 5 bcf/day, 10-20% below levels seen in the fall of 2019. The forward curve seems to be pricing in a more robust recovery in demand than actually observed.
Natural GasExperimental probability of breaking 13/07/20 high (2.9756) > 80%
Expected reward: High (Targets highlighted on chart)
Entries: Discount zones highlighted on Chart
Note: discount zone are invalid if price broke the high.