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GAZP

MOEX Russia Index. The epic 52-weeks breakthrough expectedRussia’s trapped domestic investors push stock market to 2-years high. Russia’s stock market (so-called, Moscow Exchange Index MOEX:IMOEX ) has climbed recently to its highest level in 2 years as domestic retail investors with nowhere else to go snap up the dividend-paying stocks that sold off heavily following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A rise of more than 100 per cent since March, 2022 low has pushed the MOEX index to levels last hit in early February 2022, before Russian President Vladimir Putin announces so-called "special military operation" that sent Russia’s equity market into freefall. The market’s partial rebound over the two years has come despite the imposition of countless western sanctions designed to cripple Russia’s financial system. The Kremlin responded to the measures by blocking most foreign traders from exiting their investments and capping the amount of money Russians can stash in foreign bank accounts. Due to U.S. Department of Treasury and Euroclear sanctions, money is trapped. Where do you put it but on the exchange? Deprived of investment opportunities abroad (because of stupid, a nazi-like sanctions), Russians have piled their savings into the likes of Lukoil, Gazprom and Sberbank, which combined account for about 40 per cent of the stock market’s total value. “Russian retail investors have always been about dividends,” said Sofya Donets, chief Russia economist at Renaissance Capital, a Moscow investment bank. The Russian stock market’s recent rally bears some resemblance to the surprisingly strong performance of the Borsa Istanbul 100 last year. Russia’s economy has also held up better than expected. For many domestic Russian retail investors, nothing has changed compared to before the conflicted started, as the economy is doing OK. Big dividend payers like state-owned Sberbank, whose shares are up 71 per cent trailing 12 months, are attractive to most Russians and now they’re some of the few investment options available.  Even so, foreign investors not banned by sanctions have kept well clear of the Moex since an exodus last February, when central bank figures show non-residents shed about Rbs170bn ($2.2bn) worth of Russian stocks. Trading volumes on the Moex slumped 41 per cent year on year in 2022. There is a “close-to-zero chance” that foreigners whose Russian holdings have in effect been frozen will be allowed to sell out of their positions. Perhaps there could be an artificial settlement, some kind of exchange for holdings frozen for Russian investors outside of Russia. In technical terms, IMOEX graph is near to break 52-weeks highs, following 26-weeks SMA, with further upside opportunities to reach 4000 points and new historical highs.
RUS:IRUS
by Pandorra
BUY NGRecently, the price of natural gas has been under pressure due to measures to reduce consumption and prices in Europe ahead of winter. Officials expect another supply crunch due to restricted access to Russian pipelines and a possible jump in demand for heating goods. Today, the price of natural gas NATGAS / USD is stable between the level of $5.81 and the level of $6.03 per million British thermal units. On another note. An inventory report from the US Department of Energy can determine if the floor can hold or not. Analysts expect a smaller increase in inventories of 103 billion cubic feet compared to the previous increase of 125 billion cubic feet, indicating an increase in purchases. LNG exports to other countries and storage activity leading to colder months may be responsible for the slowdown in the increase in storage. However, a larger-than-expected increase could mean more downside for natural gas as this may indicate that demand remains weak. On the gas crisis front following the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has warned that a proposal to cap gas prices at the EU level could backfire as the region seeks to offset significant supply cuts from Russia. “Price capping always involves the risk that producers will sell their gas elsewhere – and we Europeans will end up having less gas instead of more,” Schulz said Thursday in a speech to the German parliament in Berlin. The German chancellor was speaking ahead of a two-day summit of European Union leaders in Brussels. The bloc's member states will discuss ways to keep energy prices under control and ensure security of supplies, as well as the recent situation in Russia's war in Ukraine. Rather than setting a price cap, Schulze supported the idea of ​​cooperating closely with buyers such as Japan and South Korea to avoid competition for limited supplies, while also attracting like-minded producers. "I am convinced that countries like the United States, Canada or Norway, who stand with us in solidarity with Ukraine, have an interest that energy in Europe will not become too expensive," he said. According to gas technical analysis: Natural gas price NATGAS/USD has retreated to the main area of ​​interest shown on the longer-term time frames, and a break below could pave the way for a move to the next major support area at $3,635. Technical indicators favor a bounce, as the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to reflect bullish pressure. However, the gap between the indicators is narrowing to hint at a possible bearish crossover soon. The commodity is also trading below its two moving averages as an early indication of selling momentum. If that materializes, the price of natural gas could drop below $5,585 and make its way to the next main floor. The stochastic has been indicating oversold conditions for some time, which means that sellers can use a breakout period and let the buyers take control. Similarly, the RSI is in the oversold territory to indicate exhaustion among the bears. A turn higher means that bullish momentum could pick up and take the commodity back to the next upside barrier around $8,000.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ahmed-sajid
Russian Gas monopolist is facing it's downfall?☝️What happened? After taking decision not to pay dividents this year, Gazprom stock dropped almost 40% in the moment. ☝️Why they didn't pay dividents? Also, prices on gas soared up high, company still decided that it needs spare money in case of unpredictable future problems. There is a theory that one of such problems could be complete stop of gas supply to europe that russian government can take in the near future. ☝️What's next? From technical point of view we formed triangle and as volatility gets lower, it more likely that we will break it down and fall more. I want to remind you that currently Gazprom doesn't supply gas to Europe as they are completing planned technical services until 22.07. I expect further fall to the closest strong level at 160.00 What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
RUS:GAZPShort
by Artem_Dishel
8
Russian Economy Long Term Political Chess MatchGeopolitical Outlook There is huge fear surrounding Russian investment and you often see investors holding tight stop losses leading to a very new reactive market. Putin is no stranger to the political chess game. The Russian economy has taken a slight pullback recently with the tensions in Ukraine and the emergence of the ... bug variant that recently emerged. In regards to the military build-up near Ukraine's borders, this is almost certainly an effort to gain political leverage to force the EU and US into accepting the Nordstrom two pipelines and prevent/remove sanctions on Russia. Where Ukraine's recent attempts to join NATO and the military build-up has the possibility to lead to war; it is more likely that Putin is posturing in an effort to begin UN talks where the resolution is an acceptance of the pipeline will ensure no further military build-up and troop withdrawal from the region. Additionally, there is a horrible energy crisis in the EU leading to increased pressure of politicians to accept the pipeline. This could be the event that justifies the cooperation with Russia that will be labeled as a huge success in reducing tensions with Russia when in reality Russia is just going to gain large pricing power and a huge consumer of natural gas and oil. If you're bullish on oil prices GAZPROM and subsequently the Russian markets will far outperform US oil stocks. Technicals The technicals outlined on the chart are not the strongest and overall I would rate the technicals of RSX as neutral to bearish. Holdings 30% of Russia's GDP is from natural gas and oil A fifth of world oil and gas is produced by Russia 40% of RSX's holdings are in Gasprom (an oligarch-owned mega-producer of oil and natural gas and the owner of the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Monetary Policy Russia is currently experiencing a fierce inflationary cycle and if you look at 2014 during the same inflationary pressures the Russian markets saw significant pullbacks even with attempts by the Russian Central bank by raising rates all the way to 17%. This rate raise caused further pain in the market. However, if you compare 2014 to the current inflation you can see that rather than being reactive to inflation Russia was reactive in 2014 where they were proactive in 2021; raising rates prior to inflation surges. It is my opinion that Russia will not have to raise rates to these levels because they were proactive with the inflation and we will see a down turn in the inflation rate.
RLong
by Buildabear
2
GAZP is on the crossroadThe bigger picture still justifies the move to 320 and M15 and H1 both draw a double low patter. The classic way to trade is to buy the break higher and buy. I will consider this option as well. But more fruitful can be reversed way to trade it. I notice more and more double low morph to continuation trade. It starts to play as a classic double low, breaks the neck, shows some action and fades. I will look closely for this scenario since I can bet more aggressively in this case.
RUS:GAZP
by crazywlst
GAZP global falling wedge, waiting for breakoutHi, everyone! Short review of GAZP. As the graph shows, the price is traded in a global falling wedge, within which a local falling channel and an equilateral triangle is formed, in which the price tends to complete the trend. I expect a return to the support line after which the ascent to the trend line with a subsequent sample. Once the price is fixed, a long position can be considered. For the more active traders who trade within the day, I would recommend to consider short-position, as the situation in the country is unfavourable and technical analysis also indicates a continuation of the bear trend. Thank you for your attention! If you like my analysis, put likes and follow me. If you have any questions about investing, write to me.
RUS:GAZPLong
by TopTrader77