Gazprom
New Year with GazpromGazprom is always a good hedging opportunity. We are looking forward to develop a strategy to hedge risks with this stock to invest in their peers and relatives for the balanced stock portfolio. Our favourite volatility indicators show quite harbour for the Gazprom Stock and ask for help about whether Gazprom will or will not be outrun Company to develop a good risk/opportunity profile to win the Santa-Claus Rally 2023. Wee see Gazprom Stock in the corridor of 189,7 Rubles as upper case and 150,6 as a lower cage. We wish you happy holidays and a good deed.
Natural Gas CrisisGazprom will stop all gas flows to Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline from August 31 until September 2, Russia's gas giant Gazprom announced on Friday.
IMPORTANT NEXT COMING WEEKS - GZ1! - GAZPROM - WEEKLYGZ1! - GAZPROM - WEEKLY
Gazprom price have at the end of last year reached its top price levels from 2007 - 2008.
It seems that it probably goes down every times it reaches that point.
After a long horizontally ranging price. we have seem a move up in the price.
From February the price started to decrease but it stays up in the channel, recovering to it up trending price.
It been few weeks that we have notices a slow down and the price is now evolving under the probable new up trending trend pictured by the green line.
Coming week are pictured with a light red zone and an eye for you be able to observe while the price is evolving in the square.
Probabilities are the bottom of the channel in the short direction and above the green line to keep going up in the long direction.
It's the market, babyINVESTMENT CONTEXT
For the first time in over three decades Germany reported monthly trade deficit in goods, which accounts for EUR 1bn, against analyst expectations of EUR 1.2bn surplus. The spike in energy prices translated into higher import costs, while the sanctions imposed on Russia and China’s coronavirus lockdowns negatively affected exports
Iran slashed the prices of its crude oil to stay competitive with Russia in regards to Chinese clients, in an attempt to maintain market share amidst OPEC's approved volume increases
In the first half of 2022 coal imports in Europe increased by 35% on a yearly basis, earmarking the continent's struggle to cope with lower crude oil and natural gas supplies from Russia
In June, the Caixin China General Services Purchasing Managers Index reached 54.5, beating analysts expectations of 49.7. Analysts appreciate the index crossing the 50-point threshold which separates expansion from contraction
The ECB expressed concern on the potential overlapping amongst the EU member States in the matter of regulating cryptocurrencies. Aiming at "harmonizing" the bloc's policy-making on the issue, the bloc is about to implement Markets in Crypto-Assets, or MiCA, framework
After shedding USD 200mln assets in the past three weeks, Coinbase-backed crypto lender Vauld suspended trading and withdrawals. Meanwhile, Estonian cryptocurrency exchange capped withdrawals to USD 5k a day
PROFONE'S TAKE
European electricity prices hit record high levels, soaring on July 4 to EUR 325/MWh in Germany and EUR 366/MWh in France. European zinc and aluminum producers, whose activity hinges on energy prices, are struggling due to the combined effect of surging costs and falling prices on industrial metals as recession fears loom. Profs maintain bearish views on European energy, not ultimately considering that Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be closed for maintenance starting July 11. Elsewhere, French nuclear capacity stands at historical lows, since the country had to shut down for an indefinite period 12 of its 56 reactors due to unexpected corrosion of infrastructures. As a result, neighboring countries are now forced to burn additional gas to provide France with electricity, while all continent struggles to fill inventories before winter under mounting fears of further Russia's cuts of gas supply.
PROFZERO'S TAKE
What is a currency?
To think of currencies in terms of supply and demand tends to be trickier than, for instance, commodities. After all, how can there be "demand" for money? What is the use for one, especially if foreign? And what is the return?
In reality, it takes but to look at 2 pairs to understand the extend of supply-demand logics into FX markets. Looking at RUB/USD, we see right away that something must be off. The pair is now trading below its point before the war (61.08 vs. 75.45 on February 7), at a time when Russia had 9.5% interest rate and U.S. was still stuck at zero-rate. Today, the base rate applied by the Russian Central Bank is still 9.5% (after it shot to 20% a few days following the invasion of Ukraine), while that imparted by the Fed is 1.50%; yet, RUB is stronger than ever. Why? Because demand can't fully satisfy itself unloading RUB-based exposure (think of Russian equities held by international investors), while artificial demand for RUB has been created when Gazprom (GAZP) demanded energy bills to be honored in currency.
Looking at EUR/USD instead, it is hard to justify the 15% slide on a yearly basis just by looking at fundamentals. While it is true that the Fed's monetary policy has been much more responsive to inflation than the ECB's, forward rates ought to be tilted to a sensibly stronger EUR due to more resilient growth in the area. Why is that not happening? The answer lies in the USD 4tn capitalization wiped from the S&P 500 and perhaps also the USD 2.1tn evaporated in the blockchain space - an unprecedented watershed of cash which sought refuge in cash USD-denominated deposits.
Gazprom (GAZ) time to buy?First of all, a dutiful thought to the victims in Ukraine, solidarity with their families and we hope that the situation will be resolved as soon as possible.
The situation in Russia is very tense, the economy risks a serious collapse due to the repercussions that sanctions could have on many sectors.
However, there are also some opportunities that I consider very interesting, one of which is Gazprom, which distributes the majority of gas to the major European countries, first of all Germany and Italy.
It has already been made clear that the sanctions, intended as the exclusion of Russia from the swift, will not affect the supply of gas, which is simply indispensable for a Europe which depends, in fact, on Russia.
Since the end of 2004 Gazprom has been the only supplier to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Estonia, Finland, Macedonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova and Slovakia, as well as supplying 97% of the gas from Bulgaria, 89% from Hungary, 86% of the Poland, almost three quarters of that of the Czech Republic, 67% of Turkey, 65% of Austria, about 40% of Romania, 36% of Germany, 27% of Italy and 25% of France .
The collapse of the gas giant's share is therefore clearly a panic selling created by the war, as well as for Yandex (the Russian google), Aeroflot (the first Russian airline), and Sberbank.
But, for the banking system I have several doubts, even if I think it is wise to enter if it were to approach 1.5 € per share, (SBNC on the Frankfurt stock exchange), as regards Gazprom I believe that the increase in value in the long period.
As often happens to me, I divided my entry into 2 tranches, and I will only buy at a heavy discount, but the possibilities of making a 400% are all there, it remains to be seen in how long.
Obviously, as I always say in the disclaimer, mine is not financial advice, I speak only in a personal capacity and no one should invest money that they are not willing to lose. Because what I'm talking about here is a very risky situation,
Even more interesting is the situation of Yandex, which I will reserve for another article.
The coming week could be decisive, the meeting between Russia and Ukraine in Belarus could lead to an agreement, as we all hope, or not, in the second case I will wait a little longer for any developments in the conflict.
One thing to consider is also the exchange factor: the ruble is at historic lows and an appreciation of these shares is highly likely that it will also be accompanied by a recovery of the ruble, which could make the investment even more profitable.
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA . These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
The trend says all "BUY"GOOD EVENING
There is no doubt with the war between Russia and Ukraine, the price of fuel and gas will rise to a level we have never seen before, in addition to all candles and the resistance line that I drew before has been broken. so it's a good time to buy now especially since there is no indication that this crisis will end soon
business is a business that.
so open your wallets it's a chance for you
GOOD LUCK
all depends on today for the GAZPROM stocks Today, despite the absence of volume, is a very important day in the GAZPROM market as it is expected that there will be a very strong indication of what will happen in this market in the coming days because the candle approaches VWAP when it bounces, it will be a signal to buy, but if it breaks down, it will be a real signal to sell.
so don't sleep today...
good evening.
Gazprom ProjectionLooking at technical alone here, suggest that Gazprom has plenty of room to go up with the daily and the weekly RSI severely oversold.
On top of that we can see quite clear positive bullish divergence and looks to be set up to break out of the descending bullish flag.
Watch out for the resistance around the 370 mark - a break and a retest is ideal and you could potential buy at the retest, but buying from the descending bullish flag is ideal for profit maximisation.
Great profit/loss ration here too.
GAS IS EPXENSIVE IN EUROPE!
Russian Economy Long Term Political Chess MatchGeopolitical Outlook
There is huge fear surrounding Russian investment and you often see investors holding tight stop losses leading to a very new reactive market. Putin is no stranger to the political chess game. The Russian economy has taken a slight pullback recently with the tensions in Ukraine and the emergence of the ... bug variant that recently emerged. In regards to the military build-up near Ukraine's borders, this is almost certainly an effort to gain political leverage to force the EU and US into accepting the Nordstrom two pipelines and prevent/remove sanctions on Russia. Where Ukraine's recent attempts to join NATO and the military build-up has the possibility to lead to war; it is more likely that Putin is posturing in an effort to begin UN talks where the resolution is an acceptance of the pipeline will ensure no further military build-up and troop withdrawal from the region.
Additionally, there is a horrible energy crisis in the EU leading to increased pressure of politicians to accept the pipeline. This could be the event that justifies the cooperation with Russia that will be labeled as a huge success in reducing tensions with Russia when in reality Russia is just going to gain large pricing power and a huge consumer of natural gas and oil.
If you're bullish on oil prices GAZPROM and subsequently the Russian markets will far outperform US oil stocks.
Technicals
The technicals outlined on the chart are not the strongest and overall I would rate the technicals of RSX as neutral to bearish.
Holdings
30% of Russia's GDP is from natural gas and oil
A fifth of world oil and gas is produced by Russia
40% of RSX's holdings are in Gasprom (an oligarch-owned mega-producer of oil and natural gas and the owner of the Nordstream 2 pipeline.
Monetary Policy
Russia is currently experiencing a fierce inflationary cycle and if you look at 2014 during the same inflationary pressures the Russian markets saw significant pullbacks even with attempts by the Russian Central bank by raising rates all the way to 17%. This rate raise caused further pain in the market. However, if you compare 2014 to the current inflation you can see that rather than being reactive to inflation Russia was reactive in 2014 where they were proactive in 2021; raising rates prior to inflation surges. It is my opinion that Russia will not have to raise rates to these levels because they were proactive with the inflation and we will see a down turn in the inflation rate.
Short Gazprom ADRBearish chart pattern, clearer on original stock.
Will probably go down a bit, seems overvalued
GAZP is on the crossroadThe bigger picture still justifies the move to 320 and M15 and H1 both draw a double low patter. The classic way to trade is to buy the break higher and buy. I will consider this option as well. But more fruitful can be reversed way to trade it.
I notice more and more double low morph to continuation trade. It starts to play as a classic double low, breaks the neck, shows some action and fades. I will look closely for this scenario since I can bet more aggressively in this case.
Gazprom reaches highest level since 2009 on positive news
#GAZP
GAZPROM'S PRODUCTION IN HALF YEAR INCREASED BY 18% - UP TO 260.8 BLN CUB. M - COMPANY
GAZPROM INCREASED GAS EXPORT TO FAR ABROAD BY 25.7% IN THE FIRST HALF-YEAR - TO 99.9 BILLION CUB. M
GAZPROM'S GAS EXPORT TO FAR ABROADS IN HALF A YEAR HAS INCREASED BY 26% - TO 99.9 BILLION CUB. M
GAZPROM INCREASED GAS PRODUCTION BY 18% IN THE FIRST HALF, TO 260.8 BLN CUB. M
UGS STORES IN EUROPE BY THE END OF JUNE REPLENISHED ONLY 18 BILLION CUB. M OUT OF SELECTED OVER 66 BLN CUBE. M GAS LAST WINTER
GAZPROM INCREASES GAS EXPORT TO A RECORD LEVEL IN THE FIRST HALF - TASS COMPANY
Trading Idea - #GAZPROMIn the short term a SELL, in the long term a BUY!
SELL/SHORT
ENTRY: 5.08 EUR
TARGET: 4.35 EUR (+14%)
STOP: 5.55 EUR
1.) Medium-term resistance level at 5.20 EUR seems to be too strong for the actual company situation!
2.) This stock could be of great interest to investors looking for returns.
3.) Now it's getting political!!!! The German government's coordinator for transatlantic cooperation, Peter Beyer (CDU), has described the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as an obstacle to restarting relations with the USA. He has shown willingness to freeze construction in order to be able to resolve difficulties with the USA.
4.) Nord Stream 2 is now around 95 percent complete, according to the information. The pipeline is expected to transport 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia to Germany per year.
5.) The upward sales expectations show a return of the positive expectations of the analysts at this company.
6.) The analysts' average target price is relatively far removed from the current price, which suggests a potentially significant long-term increase in value.