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Gbp-aud

GBPAUD facing bullish pressure |15th June 2021Prices are facing bullish pressure from ascending trendline support in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push up towards horizontal pullback resistance in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. If prices push down, prices will take support from horizontal swing low support in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. MACD is also showing bullish pressure. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
1
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The AUD suffered the biggest outflow amongst the major with the CFTC data updated until Tuesday the 8th of June, which should arguably not be surprising given the prior outperformance in the currency before that happened. This week the focus for the AUD turns to the incoming Employment report where labour data has been touted by many as the most important consideration for the RBA regarding potential policy changes or updates. For the NZD we have Q1 GDP data coming up which should provide us with an interesting outcome on our AUDNZD short trade. The recent underperformance of the NZD has been quite surprising, and our view that the fundamental outlook points to further strength has been shared by numerous investment banks. We’ll see whether GDP data is what the NZD needs to move back in line with its underlying bias. For the CAD, positioning is something that we are focused on, especially with the CAD trading “elevated” against numerous currencies, we need to be mindful of some possible mean reversion. JPY, CHF & USD: Our fundamental outlook for the US Dollar has shifted from Weak Bearish to Neutral. The assessment of risk to the currency is more balanced in our view as we head closer and closer towards potential tapering by the Fed. Apart from that, real yields are expected to remain a key driver in the short-term and something we will use for potential short-term direction bias alongside incoming economic data points. This week, the main event for the US Dollar will of course be the upcoming FOMC meeting, where the elephant(s) in the room will be the massive upside surprises in US CPI readings compared to the FOMC’s March projections, as well as what the bank will have to say about tapering discussions (those ones that Fed Powell said they haven’t been having but the April minutes showed they have) For the JPY, the ongoing divergence between US10Y and the safe-haven currency will be a focus point of ours this week. As the Fed and quad witching is in the mix this week we need to keep safe-haven flows in mind this week as a potential supporting factor if equities see some jitters. GBP: Even though the bias for Sterling remains titled to the upside, as the third largest net-long position among the majors we do need to be mindful of the current short-term risks for the currency. We received confirmation that the UK’s planned reopening on the 21st of June will be delayed by four weeks. This was already touted last week so the impact might be lesser this week, and also due to the fact that it won’t derail the economic recovery which means the outlook is still favourable. However, coupled with the ongoing Northern Ireland Protocol issues with the EU we need to be mindful of some potential risk premium build up in Sterling which could translate into some short-term downside. We would consider any sizeable corrections as opportunities to engage from better levels, especially against the EUR and the JPY. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions. If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 8 June 2021.
by thunderpips
GBPAUD reacting above 1st support, potential for further upside!Price is reacting above 1st support, which is in line with our 50% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and horizontal overlap support. We could see further upside above this level, towards 1st resistance, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback resistance. Price is also holding above the moving average support, in line with our bullish bias. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub
2
Breakout Continuation On GBPAUDSee Signposts for key price action details. I generally don't like breakout continuation plays as I often don't find them working out. Lately, I've been refining this so that I'm only trading the breakout continuation when a "reversal" move is underway. This tends to be more reliable than trying to trade a breakout continuation in the direction of the existing trend. For example, a breakout to the upside on an overall uptrend is less likely to succeed.
Long
by FinancialGamblR
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in GBPAUD Trading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.82728). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . GBPAUD is in a downtrend, and the continuation of the downtrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 44 Take Profits: TP1= @ 1.81921 TP2= @ 1.81685 TP3= @ 1.80999 TP4= @ 1.80184 TP5= @ 1.79271 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity_World
29
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in GBPAUD Trading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.82728). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . GBPAUD is in a downtrend, and the continuation of the downtrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 44 Take Profits: TP1= @ 1.81921 TP2= @ 1.81685 TP3= @ 1.80999 TP4= @ 1.80184 TP5= @ 1.79271 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity
8
GBPAUD a new bearish leg 🦐GBPAUD is moving below a weekly resistance over a minor ascending trendline. The price is now trading above a daily support and according to Plancton's strategy if the market will break and close below we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
GBPAUD looking for a retracement? 🦐GBPAUD is moving below a weekly resistance over a minor ascending trendline. The price is now trading above a daily support and according to Plancton's strategy if the market will break and close below we will set a nice short order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
8
GBPAUD approaching buy entry level | 7th June 2021GBPAUD is approaching buy entry level, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension , ascending trendline support and horizontal overlap support. We could see a bounce and further rise towards take profit level, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Stochastics is also testing the support level where it has reacted off of before, in line with our analysis. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
GBPAUD test the 0.5 Fib 🦐GBPAUD after the recent high, below the weekly resistance, tested the 0.5 Fibonacci retracements over a daily support. The market is now moving to the 1.83300 resistance and according to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
2
GBPAUD testing 1st support, potential for a bounce!Price is testing 1st support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback support. We could potentially see a bounce and further rise up to test 1st resistance, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Price is also holding above the ascending trendline and moving average support, in line with our bullish bias. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: It was a big week for the NZD after the RBNZ followed in the BOC’s footsteps by bringing forward rate hike projections to Sep 2022. Keep in mind the reason why we haven’t seen a correspondingly big uptick in NZD positioning is because the CFTC data is only updated every Tuesday and does not include the big moves seen in the NZD from Wednesday. For the CAD, even though the bias remains unchanged, sitting at over 44K net-long, the second largest among the G10, one has to argue that the CAD has been looking rather stretched at its current levels. That, of course, doesn’t mean the bias has changed, but it does not mean at these levels the risk to reward to continue buying the CAD doesn’t look that attractive. In the week ahead for the AUD, we do have the RBA policy meeting coming up. However, the more anticipated meeting is the July one as the bank previously highlighted that they would use the July meeting to provide additional guidance regarding their QE program and their Yield Curve Control. Thus, the June meeting are not expected to provide any real fireworks. JPY, CHF & USD: Real yields, FED policy and Reflation expectations continue to be key drivers for the US Dollar. That means that incoming data will be very important for the market as it will be used as a gauge to determine how far or how close FED tapering will be. In the week ahead there are several important data points coming up which will be interesting inputs for the US Dollar. What a week it was for the JPY, which fell off the proverbial cliff at the latter part of the week. Pressured not only by US10Y staging a bit of a recovery on Thursday, but more influenced by month end flows where Citi bank noted that they estimate Japanese investors will need to sell JPY to reduce hedges on foreign bonds. With month-end effects mostly out of the way, the focus for the JPY will once again fall on US yields. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Positioning has once again reflected the bullish bias as the biggest build in net-long positions with the most recent CFTC data. Sterling made some impressive runs in the past week as the markets reacted very favourably to comments from BOE’s Vlieghe who noted that there could be scope for faster policy normalization if the economy develops in line with their estimates and more importantly if the negative impact from the phasing out of the furlough scheme is contained. Markets took the news very positively, as they were hawkish comments from a more neutral central bank member. However, they comments were very conditional on the labour market staying firm after furlough ends. Also, Vlieghe won’t be at the bank after August which means that his comments surrounding monetary policy should be taking with a pinch of salt as it does not necessarily represent the views of the actual voting members. It’s going to be a quiet week ahead for the GBP in terms of economic data. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions. If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind.
Editors' picks
by thunderpips
14