GBPCHF long – running at +25 pips but looking towards +1600It was in Sep 2022 that this pair made its (ATL) low at 1.01563. Since then, it meandered rather aimlessly (largely consolidating) but made a couple of higher lows. A double top was formed in July 2024, but that ended in a higher low. Here, began an uptrend that I believe is still intact. In Sep 2024 it slipped into a range as shown in the blue rectangle and has recently broken out of it to the upside. Price has been rather consistently above the (daily) 20ema this entire year and is not over-extended either.
PA at this time is not neat, plenty of wicks on both sides (check your daily chart). This is not what trend traders like to see, yet it does seem that the bulls are gaining control. This could be the early phase of a long bull trend or price could hit a resistance and fall down again. I would say that this is a high-risk trade at the moment.
I have taken a (small) long position already but will look to close it just before 1.1640 resistance. If, however, there is break above and pull back to that level, I will conclude that this pair is now firmly bullish and will target 1.3030 with a full position size (or multiple positions). That is a long way away and will be a good test of patience and nerves.
All this can be speculation too, but my risk is extremely limited right now – something well within my comfort zone.
This is not a trade recommendation, merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!!
It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
