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Gbp-jpy

GBPJPY a short term outlook 🦐GBPJPY on the 4h chart is trading at the recent highs. The price after a long bullish impulse might be looking for a retest of the support area at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the EU market open and search for a break of the support. In that case, i ll be looking for the Plancton's strategy to set a nice short order. ----- Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
4
GBP JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH Inflation and growth have been the biggest negative drivers for Sterling so far this year. Due to a very bleak outlook for growth and accompanied by inflation that is close to 5 times the BoE’s target, the real risks of stagflation have weighed on the GBP. As a result of the growing stagflation risks, it has also forced the BoE’s hand to more dovish at every meeting since February, with the previous one stopping just shy of forecasting a possible recession for the economy going into 2023. At this stage, the BoE is hiking rates reluctantly, not because the economy is doing great, but because of unacceptably high levels of inflation. The deteriorating economic outlook has also caused markets to doubt whether the bank will be able to deliver to the number of hikes that STIR has already priced in, with some participants expecting the bank to hike once or twice more and then pause. POSSIBLE HAWKISH SURPRISES Stagflation fears are very high for the UK, with the probability of a recession growing by the week. With so much bad news priced in, any materially positive surprises in growth data could trigger bullish reactions for Sterling. Furthermore, as the UK is facing one of its biggest cost of living squeezes in history, lower-than-expected inflation prints could counterintuitively be a positive driver for the currency. The economy needs help right now, which means any help from the fiscal side will be a positive. Thus, any major fiscal support measures to help consumers (like subsidies for energy or potential tax cuts) could trigger upside for Sterling. POSSIBLE DOVISH SURPRISES Monetary policy is a double-edged sword for the GBP. Odds that the BoE has limited hikes left has been a negative driver, but so too is risks that inflation forces them to hike even more and further damage GDP. Further stagflation risks from higher gas prices or CPI prints could trigger bearish reactions. Politics is also in focus, where any attempts to oust PM Johnson by changing no-confidence laws could trigger bearish reactions. GBP is usually sensitive to political uncertainty and anything that raises odds of a snap election should be negative. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus again. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains fairly bleak right now with the economic prospects and risk of stagflation keeping the currency pressured. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some of that pressure should be positive. Tactically the GBP has been stretched to the downside, so any new shorts do need to be weary of the risk of some mean reversion. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH The Yen has fallen off the proverbial cliff over the past few months, driven by very negative fundamentals. Yield differentials has by far had the biggest negative impact. With other major central banks starting aggressive hiking cycles, it has lifted yields quite dramatically, compared to the BoJ which has stubbornly kept their yields capped through continued Yield Curve Control. The inverse correlation to US10Y is usually important but has taken centre stage in recent months as the biggest driver of the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, the inflows has been more limited compared to other cycles. The main reason for that is that the bank’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated and expected to continue to deteriorate due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports over 90% of their energy commodities, so the continued rise in oil prices has added to the downside and also eroded some of the classic safe haven appeal. Monetary policy is the other negative driver. Despite inflation starting to push higher in Japan, and despite the lessons from other central banks now struggling with inflation last seen since the 70’s, and despite the market’s relentless attempts at testing the JGB 10-year yield cap at 0.25%, the bank has stayed stubbornly dovish. At this stage the bank is playing a very dangerous game by allowing the JPY to weaken, further adding to inflationary risks. Their dovish persistence remains a negative for the JPY. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid and violent depreciation in the JPY has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act and actually do something, the market will keep testing them and shorting the JPY. POSSIBLE HAWKISH SURPRISES Any catalysts that trigger meaningful downside in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US CPI, faster deceleration in US growth) or triggers meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Monetary policy is stubbornly dovish. Any catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ would drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation) could trigger a big recovery in the JPY, especially with stretched short positioning. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE DOVISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US CPI, better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture looks bleak for the JPY right now, and as long as US10Y gain ground and as long as the BoJ stays unnecessarily dovish and as long as the BoJ and MoF does nothing to address JPY weakness, the bias remains lower. However, given stretched tactical and CFTC positioning, and given growth concerns in the US, we don’t want to chase the JPY lower from here.
by thunderpips
Outlook on GBPJPY: Bearish play seenOn the daily time frame, prices are holding below a key resistance level at 168.50 where we could see a reversal below this level. On the M30 time frame, prices are showing bearish order flow with the recent break of the swing low. A pullback to test the supply zone at 167.80, in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension could present an opportunity to play the drop from this level to the next demand zone at 166.20. Ichimoku cloud is showing signs of bearish pressure as well, in line wth our bearish bias.
Short
by shermzT
GBPJPY on a retracement move 🦐GBPJPY on the 4h chart is trading at the recent highs. The price after a long bullish impulse might be looking for a retest of the support area at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the EU market open and search for a break of the support. In that case, i ll be looking for the Plancton's strategy to set a nice short order. ----- Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
4
GBPJPY Long-term buy opportunityThe GBPJPY pair has been trading on a long-term Fibonacci Channel pattern as we outlined in our last analysis two months ago. Since May 12, the price is on a strong rebound having hit the 1D RSI Buy Zone. With the prior top resembling those of August 2020 and March 2021, the pair is more likely to extend this rise either instantly or less aggressively, as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting. In either case, the Target should be at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of the Channel or at least when the 1D RSI enters its Sell Zone. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
4
GBP JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy At their May meeting, the BoE delivered on expectations by raising the bank rate by 25bsp to 1.0%. There was an initial hawkish surprise as the vote split was 9-0 (no dissent from Cunliffe) and 3 of the 9 MPC members voted for a 50bsp move at the meeting. However, the hawkish reaction soon faded as it was also revealed that 2 of the 6 members who voted for a hike thought that this marked the end of the current hiking cycle. The dovishness didn’t stop there though as the BoE revised up their forecasts for peak inflation to >10% which added to the stagflation fears as the bank also saw possible GDP contraction in 2023. Furthermore, the bank took their first real stab at overly aggressive STIR pricing for the 2022 rate path by saying the current path would imply a big undershoot of their 2% inflation target in 2023 and was later backed up by Governor Bailey who said even though he thought rates should continue to rise he didn’t agree with those who think the MPC should be raising interest rates by a lot more. As the bank rate was raised to 1.0%, the markets expected some clarity from the bank on their plans to reduce the balance sheet . However, the bank decided to play for more time and said the bank will provide an update on their plans at the August meeting, pushing back expectations of active QT from Q2 to Q3. As a result of the overall dovish tone, Sterling fell to its lowest levels since 1Q21. The meeting confirmed market calls that the bank would look to hold rates steady after reaching 1.50%. 2. Economic & Health Developments With inflation the main reason for the BoE’s recent rate hikes, there is a concern that the UK economy faces stagflation risk, as price pressures stay sticky while growth decelerates. That also means that current market expectations for rates continues to look too aggressive even after the BoE’s recent push back. This means downside risks for GBP if growth data push lower and/or the BoE continue to push their recent dovish tone. 3. Political Developments Political uncertainty is usually GBP negative, so the PM’s future remains a risk. If distrust grows question remains on whether a no-confidence vote can happen (if so, short-term downside is likely), and whether he can survive the vote (a win should be GBP positive and a loss GBP negative). The Northern Ireland protocol remains a focus, with previous UK threats to trigger Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do. Markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. 4. CFTC Analysis Mostly mixed signals from positioning data again, but with aggregate positioning still well below 1 standard dev from the 15-year mean GBP looks stretched. Even though the outlook for Sterling shifted to weak bearish from neutral, positioning means we are not too excited to chase the Pound lower from here. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy The BoJ kept all policy settings unchanged at their April meeting, which was in line with broad consensus expectations, but given the price action after the event did imply that a sizeable chunk of the market was expecting something more (us included). Due to the JPY weakness in recent weeks, markets wanted to see whether the bank would potentially increase their Yield Curve Control target band from 0.25%--0.25% to 0.50%--0.50%. But the bank decided to stick to their guns and maintain their ultra-easy policy despite the rapid depreciation of the JPY. The bank doubled down by saying they will conduct special open market operations on every working day as needed to keep the 10-year GBP capped at 0.25%. As expected, the bank reiterated their view that rates will stay low for the foreseeable future and won’t hesitate to add stimulus if the economy needs it. On the JPY, Gov Kuroda made familiar comments by saying they desire stable currency moves which reflect economic fundamentals. As a result of the bank’s inaction, all eyes will now be on the MoF to intervene if the rapid depreciation of the JPY continues. 2. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is usually the primary driver. Economic data rarely proves market moving, and although monetary policy expectations can affect the JPY in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically more dominant. Even though the market’s overall risk tone saw a huge recovery and risk-on frenzy from the middle of 2020 to the end of 2021, recent developments have increased risks. With central banks tightening policy into an economic slowdown, risk appetite has soured. Even though that doesn’t change our med-term bias for the JPY, it does mean we should expect more risk sentiment ebbs and flows this year, and the heightened volatility can create strong directional moves in the JPY, as long as yields play their part. 3. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares a strong inverse correlation to moves in US yield differentials. Like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y isn’t perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the market environment from both a risk and cycle point of view. With the Fed tilting more aggressive and targeting demand, we expect U10Y to push lower in weeks ahead (especially as inflation tops out). If that happens there could be mild upside risks for the JPY if US10Y corrects, but we shouldn’t look at that in isolation and also weigh it alongside risk sentiment and demand for the USD. 4. CFTC Analysis Another bullish signal from JPY positioning as net-shorts decreased across all three participants once again. With aggregate JPY positioning close to 2 standard deviationsfrom its 15-year mean, the risk to reward to chase the JPY lower from here is not very attractive. Last week saw some additional correction in JPY pairs, but without a more substantial reason for US10Y to push lower the attractiveness to buy the JPY is limited as well.
by thunderpips
GBP JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy At their May meeting, the BoE delivered on expectations by raising the bank rate by 25bsp to 1.0%. There was an initial hawkish surprise as the vote split was 9-0 (no dissent from Cunliffe) and 3 of the 9 MPC members voted for a 50bsp move at the meeting. However, the hawkish reaction soon faded as it was also revealed that 2 of the 6 members who voted for a hike thought that this marked the end of the current hiking cycle. The dovishness didn’t stop there though as the BoE revised up their forecasts for peak inflation to >10% which added to the stagflation fears as the bank also saw possible GDP contraction in 2023. Furthermore, the bank took their first real stab at overly aggressive STIR pricing for the 2022 rate path by saying the current path would imply a big undershoot of their 2% inflation target in 2023 and was later backed up by Governor Bailey who said even though he thought rates should continue to rise he didn’t agree with those who think the MPC should be raising interest rates by a lot more. As the bank rate was raised to 1.0%, the markets expected some clarity from the bank on their plans to reduce the balance sheet . However, the bank decided to play for more time and said the bank will provide an update on their plans at the August meeting, pushing back expectations of active QT from Q2 to Q3. As a result of the overall dovish tone, Sterling fell to its lowest levels since 1Q21. The meeting confirmed market calls that the bank would look to hold rates steady after reaching 1.50%. 2. Economic & Health Developments With inflation the main reason for the BoE’s recent rate hikes, there is a concern that the UK economy faces stagflation risk, as price pressures stay sticky while growth decelerates. That also means that current market expectations for rates continues to look too aggressive even after the BoE’s recent push back. This means downside risks for GBP if growth data push lower and/or the BoE continue to push their recent dovish tone. 3. Political Developments Political uncertainty is usually GBP negative, so the PM’s future remains a risk. If distrust grows question remains on whether a no-confidence vote can happen (if so, short-term downside is likely), and whether he can survive the vote (a win should be GBP positive and a loss GBP negative). The Northern Ireland protocol remains a focus, with previous UK threats to trigger Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do. Markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. 4. CFTC Analysis Mostly mixed signals from positioning data again, but with aggregate positioning still well below 1 standard dev from the 15-year mean GBP looks stretched. Even though the outlook for Sterling shifted to weak bearish from neutral, positioning means we are not too excited to chase the Pound lower from here. 5. The Week Ahead It will be an extremely light week ahead for Sterling with no tier 1 data point, but we also have UK bank holidays on Thursday and Friday as well. All of that means that there will be very little to drive Sterling this week and given the thinner liquidity and lower volume it could be a choppy week. Sterling’s med-term outlook remains weak bearish , but the currency has been stretched to the downside at the index level. That means we are not too keen on looking for opportunities to short the currency until we see some upside we can use to sell in to. Brexit will be in focus, where recent threats of terminating the Brexit deal has been rightly seen as posturing, but if any side goes through with their recent threats that could open up a decent EURGBP buy opportunity regardless of stretched positioning. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy The BoJ kept all policy settings unchanged at their April meeting, which was in line with broad consensus expectations, but given the price action after the event did imply that a sizeable chunk of the market was expecting something more (us included). Due to the JPY weakness in recent weeks, markets wanted to see whether the bank would potentially increase their Yield Curve Control target band from 0.25%--0.25% to 0.50%--0.50%. But the bank decided to stick to their guns and maintain their ultra-easy policy despite the rapid depreciation of the JPY. The bank doubled down by saying they will conduct special open market operations on every working day as needed to keep the 10-year GBP capped at 0.25%. As expected, the bank reiterated their view that rates will stay low for the foreseeable future and won’t hesitate to add stimulus if the economy needs it. On the JPY, Gov Kuroda made familiar comments by saying they desire stable currency moves which reflect economic fundamentals. As a result of the bank’s inaction, all eyes will now be on the MoF to intervene if the rapid depreciation of the JPY continues. 2. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is usually the primary driver. Economic data rarely proves market moving, and although monetary policy expectations can affect the JPY in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically more dominant. Even though the market’s overall risk tone saw a huge recovery and risk-on frenzy from the middle of 2020 to the end of 2021, recent developments have increased risks. With central banks tightening policy into an economic slowdown, risk appetite has soured. Even though that doesn’t change our med-term bias for the JPY, it does mean we should expect more risk sentiment ebbs and flows this year, and the heightened volatility can create strong directional moves in the JPY, as long as yields play their part. 3. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares a strong inverse correlation to moves in US yield differentials. Like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y isn’t perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the market environment from both a risk and cycle point of view. With the Fed tilting more aggressive and targeting demand, we expect U10Y to push lower in weeks ahead (especially as inflation tops out). If that happens there could be mild upside risks for the JPY if US10Y corrects, but we shouldn’t look at that in isolation and also weigh it alongside risk sentiment and demand for the USD. 4. CFTC Analysis Another bullish signal from JPY positioning as net-shorts decreased across all three participants once again. With aggregate JPY positioning close to 2 standard deviationsfrom its 15-year mean, the risk to reward to chase the JPY lower from here is not very attractive. Last week saw some additional correction in JPY pairs, but without a more substantial reason for US10Y to push lower the attractiveness to buy the JPY is limited as well. 5. The Week Ahead For the week ahead, the focus will remain on the key drivers which is US10Y and more recently risk sentiment. With CPI starting to inch higher in Japan, there have been some speculation that the BoJ could make a move on policy in the months ahead. Until last week majority of participants expected a bigger YCC target band to be the preferred policy option, but after BoJ Kuroda’s comments last week it seems like a possible rate hike does not seem out of the question anymore. Any further hawkish comments from the BoJ will be closely watched in the sessions ahead. Given the move in yield differentials and commodity prices, the JPY had very little safe haven appeal as US10Y was making fresh cycle highs, but as US10Y have started to slow its assent, we’ve seen some classic safe haven demand for the JPY in the past few weeks. This means, apart from the regular focus on US10Y, we’ll also be paying attention to any sharp moves in risk sentiment as well. Apart from that, eyes will also be on any jawboning from Japanese officials where the BoJ has placed the ball firmly in the MoF’s court to try and curb JPY depreciation. With the recent safe haven demand seeing some inflows into the JPY, as well as the hawkish comments from the BoJ, it seems like jawboning might not be around the corner.
by thunderpips