GBPUSD 13/8/23GU giving us a textbook markup here, we have a very clean internal price action move with a bullish short term swig higher, this is perfect to lead us into our overall swing range which we are expecting to sell lower, this will lead us nicely into what we expect for the USD pairs which is a sell off into a huge upside move.
We are looking for sells from our high of the range here as long as we don't clash with news or have any other external factors.
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
Gbp-usd
GBPUSD: Channel Up broken downwards. Bearish mode right now. GBPUSD crossed under its four month Channel Up pattern, as well as closing under the 1D MA50, thus turning the 1D timeframe bearish (RSI = 43.717, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 34.501). Currently this is a sell signal, targeting the 1D MA100 (TP = 1.2625). Every Support (S) broken, will be a sell signal for the next one. We are buying only if the price crosses over the 0.618 Fibonacci level or the 1D MACD completes a Bullish Cross. In both events, our target will be the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.3335).
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Interest rate advantage gradually disappears, GBP/USD trendPost use Google translate
In addition to the impact of high inflation, UK retailers were hit by heavy rains in July, with sales growth falling to an 11-month low, the survey released on Wednesday showed.
The British Retail Confederation (BRC) said retail sales in July rose 1.5% from a year earlier, less than half the 12-month average of 3.9% and well below the previous level. peaked at 5.2% in February this year.
The data isn't adjusted for inflation, so a slight increase in consumption in July meant a drop in sales.
So far, UK consumers have largely weathered the negative impact of last year's rising inflation and steady rate hikes by the Bank of England, but the impact is likely to be more severe. in the coming months.
These have made the outlook for the UK economy weaker, and the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Bank of England has become limited.
With the interest rate advantage gradually disappearing, and the economic development of the United States is clearly better than Europe in general. Therefore, it looks like GBP/USD has less fundamental support in the near term.
On the daily chart, OANDA:GBPUSD although has recovered significantly from the support level of 1.26820 sent to readers in the previous releases, the upside correction will also be limited by the main bearish channel (b) ).
It is difficult to see a technically sustainable upside in GBP/USD. For GBP/USD to qualify for the upside at least it needs to take the price action above the 0.382% Fibonacci level and break out of the descending channel (b).
A negative case for GBP/USD will quickly emerge as once again moving below the 0.50% Fibonacci level, the target level will then be around 1.26820 and more at 1.26247 at the 0.618% Fibonacci price point.
Despite the recovery, the technical outlook for GBP/USD remains bearish with notable technical levels below.
Support: 1.27235 – 1.26820
Resistance: 1.28224
@BestSC
GBPUSD: The beginning of the end?I'm expecting full on GBP weakness over the coming weeks, regardless of what happens with the dollar.
We've broken below the months of ascending trendline and so far failed to break back above, we have a beautiful bearish engulfing candle on the 4hr close from Friday.
I get this pair wrong a lot (because I live in the UK and can see a car crash happening in slow motion...), so will definitely not be jumping in. We have big US CPI data on Thursday at 13.30 GMT, if inflation figures are worse (lower) than forecast then this will be good for the GBP in the short term - however I'm thinking that the best will happen is a failed retest of the trendline and I'm thinking we're starting the move back down - just deserts for how the BoE have performed imho.
GBPUSD 30/7/23What's up everyone starting off this week with British pound to the US dollar as always these markups are representing 5 minute price action but we have to post them on 15 minute due to trading views terms of use.
We broke above a smaller swing high on Friday's session giving us a clear order block at London Open i'm now looking for price to revisit this before pushing higher if we push higher I'm expecting a smaller range to be formed to then break lower giving us a bearish bias which I believe we will continue on into the week. As it stands for today we have a bullish bias and we will carry that over into our first session of the week until we are proven wrong we will continue to track price as is delivered.
GBPUSD Approaching the 1day MA50. Buy signal.GBPUSD had a technical rejection at the top of the Channel Up.
The 1day MA50 is the Support at the bottom of the Channel Up, as it has been intact since June 8th.
This is a buy opportunity. Target the standard +4.30% rise at 1.3300.
Previous chart:
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GBPUSD buy setupGBPUSD 4H
We wait for confirmation and then enter a rise, such as closing a full candle above the black line (classic analysis)
Then we go uphill
Or we wait for the occurrence of a sweep, then a choke (smc), then we enter an upward movement
Or we wait for the occurrence of MSB Ict A and then enter
Or we wait for a reflection on a smaller frame or any other reflection signal than what you have studied
GbpUsdLovely reaction on the daily FVG yesterday, but was too late and out of my trading session, - shame...
Today look for shorts if we pull back to the asian high, the lower FVG pointed out yesterday by one of our newest students lines up perfectly with 0.618 fib...
From there on, It will be time to look for longs in-line with the higher time frame narrative....
GBPUSD - Shorts!GU is currently at a significant level. This region is favourable for short positions. I anticipate 0.38/0.50% fib level of retracement to be swept. This also aligns with daily FVG.
This is not financial advice.
Do your own due diligence.
Longs are then to be expected as COT increases in long positions.
DXY RSI Bullish Divergence at Bullish Butterfly PCZFrom the looks of it, DXY will try to hold the 1.414 Butterfly PCZ and make its way up towards previous Resistance. I don't think DXY will Break the Resistance, but it does look like there is a good case to be made for DXY coming back up to challenge those levels.
GBPUSD Hit the Channel Up top. High probability for a pull-back.The GBPUSD pair hit on Friday the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the March 08 Low. At the same time it got rejected on the 1.3150 Resistance, which was the April 14 2022 High, while the 1D RSI got extremely overbought at 78.50. This calls for a short-term correction back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Channel's bottom.
We are willing to buy there with a low risk/ high reward long, targeting Resistance 2 at 1.33000. If however the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) we will take the loss and short instead towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with an early estimated target at 1.2400, although this will be modified depending on the position of the 1D MA200 at the time.
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GBPUSD BULL FLAG In today's trading session, we are closely observing the GBPUSD pair for a potential buying opportunity around the 1.3100 zone. A bull flag pattern has formed on the GBPUSD chart, indicating a temporary consolidation before a potential continuation of the upward trend.
Once the breakout of the bull flag is confirmed, we will be attentive to any potential retracement of the breakout towards higher levels. This means that if the price moves higher after the breakout, we will be watching for a temporary pullback or correction in the price, which could provide another opportunity for potential upsides. Also with the recent inflation data in the US, which has been relatively soft, should contribute to continued upsides in the GBPUSD pair.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.28100 zone, GBPUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently seems to be attempting to break it out. If we get decent dips below the trend we would be looking for a potential retrace of the trend from 1.28100 support and resistance area. We have also important CPI data this week. in case of a soft CPI the plan should be canceled.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPUSD: 4HR Death Cross, LH and LL formation downtrendMaintaining my shorts on this pair with validation coming from the 50EMA (turquoise) crossing the 100EMA (white) which forms a death cross in the 4hr time frame.
GBPUSD has failed to make a new higher high and so I'm expecting a push down to the recent low, we may break this immediately, or retrace back to the descending trendline that's now formed. We're making lower highs and lower lows which indicates a down-trend.
Ultimately I'm expecting this pair to fall to below 1.22 in the coming weeks.
Big FOMC release tomorrow, if the notes support Powell's recent hawkish stance then this will be bad for cable, then there is NFP on Friday which is a bit unknown.
Fundamentally for GBP, recent data suggests inflation may be coming down, which suggests that the BoE may become less hawkish.
Powell suggested a couple more hikes, which could mean Fed interest rates remain higher for longer.
I'm also expecting a push up for DXY based on it's chart patterns.
I'm staying short.