GBPUSD -Dollar, employment indicators or tariff news?!The GBPUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of upward correction of the currency pair, it is possible to sell this currency pair within the specified supply zone.
If the downward trend continues due to the release of economic data this week, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with the appropriate risk reward.
The yield on the UK’s 30-year bonds reached 5.22%, the highest level since 1998. This surge followed the sale of similar maturity bonds and heightened concerns about the large issuance of government debt. The UK government plans to issue £297 billion in bonds during the current fiscal year, marking the second-highest figure in the country’s history. This substantial issuance has exerted significant pressure on the bond market and raised fears about mounting national debt.
Moreover, expectations of a smaller rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) have added further strain to the bond market. The UK government faces a considerable challenge in balancing the need to gain investors’ trust while managing its growing debt burden. The market remains overshadowed by the controversial 2022 budget under Liz Truss, the former Conservative Prime Minister.
Meanwhile, recent data has led to improved economic forecasts. Real personal consumption expenditure growth for Q4 is now expected to rise from 3% to 3.3%, while projections for real private domestic investment growth have improved from -0.9% to -0.6%. Additionally, the contribution of net exports to real GDP growth in Q4 has been revised upward from 0.07% to 0.11%.
Goldman Sachs has reduced its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in 2025 from 100 basis points to 75 basis points. The bank does not anticipate that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will result in rate hikes. Goldman Sachs notes that core inflation is declining and remains skeptical about Trump’s policy changes having a significant impact on interest rates.
According to a report by The Washington Post, Trump may impose tariffs that are more limited in scope than he had promised during his campaign. This news has led to a decline in the value of the US dollar. Such reactions are likely to recur as more details about the tariffs are announced.
Reports of lower tariffs typically weaken the dollar. But what happens if higher tariffs are imposed, such as those targeting China? Chris Meissner from Santa Clara University believes, “The Chinese yuan will appear weaker relative to the US dollar, which will strengthen the dollar to offset part of the direct tariff impact.”
Olivier Jeanne, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, stated, “A stronger dollar benefits American consumers by lowering the cost of imports.” He added, “It is also advantageous for American tourists traveling abroad when the dollar is strong.” However, he cautioned that this is detrimental to the export sector, as a stronger dollar means other countries would need more of their own currency to purchase American goods.
With approximately two weeks remaining until Trump’s inauguration, the threats surrounding his proposed tariff plans have already introduced stress into the global trade system and created uncertainties regarding inflation and interest rate trends.
Gbp-usd
GBPUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.25600 zone, GBPUSD is trading in an downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.25600 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPUSD, swing of the year. FOREXCOM:GBPUSD / 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
FOREXCOM:GBPUSD is showing strong bearish momentum after the dollar index TVC:DXY
broke above the 2 years range. However, the price is oversold for now. Hence, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pullback into the middle of the range zone for a more strategic entry.
If the pullback holds and sell off confirms, the next leg higher could target:
First Resistance: Immediate levels formed during prior consolidation.
Second resistance: Yearly lows.
Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence!
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
Bearish drop for the Cable?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2492
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.2564
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.2370
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Bullish bounce for the Cable?The price is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2494
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 1.2429
Why we like it:
There is a support level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 1.2606
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish rise?The Cable (GBP/USD) has reacted off the pivot which is a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.2492
1st Support: 1.2331
1st Resistance: 1.2649
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPUSD Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.25600 zone, GBPUSD was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.25600 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.26000 zone, GBPUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.26000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bearish drop?GBP/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2615
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.2725
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 1.2486
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBPUSD Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.25500 zone, GBPUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.25500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bearish drop for the Cable?The price has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 1.2732
1st Support: 1.2613
1st Resistance: 1.2798
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop off overlap resistance?GBP/USD is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2733
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.2794
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.2609
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish bounce for the Cable?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.2547
1st Support: 1.2329
1st Resistance: 1.2734
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could the Cable reverse from here?The price is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2617
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.2523
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.2731
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBPUSD Is Nearing 1.26450 Resistance Along With The TrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.26450 zone, GBPUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.26450 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPUSD - Dollar, waiting for the release of the CPI index?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The continuation of the trend of this currency pair will depend on the maintenance or failure of this channel.
If the upward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. In case of channel failure and downward correction, you can buy this currency pair within the specified demand zone.
According to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumer inflation expectations in the United States showed some changes in November compared to October. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3%, up from 2.9% last month.
Additionally, three-year inflation expectations reached 2.6%, slightly higher than the 2.5% recorded in October. Five-year expectations also edged up from 2.8% to 2.9%.
The Federal Reserve’s survey indicates that participants anticipate a decline in costs for gasoline, rent, and food over the coming year.
Expectations about future government borrowing have also dropped significantly.
The report further highlights that many respondents are optimistic about their financial situation improving next year. This positive outlook has reached its highest level since February 2020.
Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, has warned that Donald Trump’s tariff plans could disrupt prior efforts to curb inflation and lead to higher consumer prices. Speaking at the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council, she stressed that broad tariffs could increase costs for American consumers and businesses dependent on imports.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by strong economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, caution that holding long positions on the dollar may now be a mistake as the currency faces downside risks.
Bloomberg reports that while efforts to combat inflation have been largely successful, lingering price pressures could undermine confidence in further interest rate cuts.
Reuters has reported that the Bank of England intends to maintain its cautious stance and keep interest rates steady. Simultaneously, the European Commission has advised EU member states against granting the UK greater access to the bloc’s electricity market. This recommendation comes despite warnings from the energy sector about higher costs for consumers and slower progress toward green energy transitions.
In a policy document outlining the EU’s stance on future negotiations with the UK, the European Commission emphasized that the principle of “limited choice” should also apply to electricity trade. The document noted that the UK’s decision not to rejoin the single market has restricted deeper cooperation in the energy sector, and partial participation in this market would neither benefit the EU nor align with the European Council’s guidelines.
In October, British and European energy companies called for a revision of post-Brexit energy trade arrangements to establish a “green energy hub” in the North Sea. They warned that the current framework is not only inefficient but also jeopardizes shared commitments to generate 310 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2050.
On Monday, the U.S. and UK announced a fresh wave of sanctions targeting what they described as the illicit gold trade. The UK claimed that this trade finances Vladimir Putin’s war efforts in Ukraine and fuels corruption.
The British government froze the assets of four individuals accused of gold smuggling, as well as another individual who had purchased over $300 million worth of Russian gold, generating revenue for the Russian government. In a statement, the UK’s Foreign Office said: “Illicit gold trade is an attack on the legitimate trade of a valuable commodity, fueling corruption, undermining the rule of law, and enabling human rights abuses, including child labor.”
Bullish bounce?The Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.2720
1st Support: 1.2646
1st Resistance: 1.2846
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPUSD: Channel Up attempting a 4H MA200 cross.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.376, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 36.982) as despite having started a Channel up since the November 22nd bottom, this is after a long term bearish trend that only now will determine if it will switch to bullish or not. Today was in fact the 2nd rejection on the 4H MA200 but at the same time, the 4H MA50 is supporting. This range makes the 4H timeframe neutral as well. If the MA50 continues to hold and the 4H MA200 is crossed with a full candle close, then we will take a short term long, aiming under the 2.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.29000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Sell GBP/USD Channel BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2668
2nd Support – 1.2620
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
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Thank you.
Potential bullish rise?The Cable (GBP/USD) has reacted off the pivot which is an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.2686
1st Support: 1.2529
1st Resistance: 1.2907
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPUSD Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.27600 zone, GBPUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.27600 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.