GBP/AUD ready to start a big move(7/2/2024)GBP/AUD has been trapped between a correction trendline and a support zone. Because of that the price moves back and forth in a tight range.
If the price manages to break the correction line, this will lead the price into the 1.91 zone.
Also, the price has completed a 5-wave impulse before, so any break above the correction line will start a new 5-wave impulse move.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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GBP
GBPJPY: Needs a Rest!Hello traders,
JPY journey to lost it's value was profitable for many traders. but when it's going to end? i suggest observing HTF and I'll do in near future.
But for mid-term view I think we might see a reversal so if you are an intraday trader please take less risk in longing the pair.
I'm waiting for middle or bottom of the channel to start longing again!
Bearish drop?GBP/USD Is rising towards a resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and cold potentially reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.26626
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.26934
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 1.26147
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBP/USD Navigates Sideways Market with Focus on US Inflation DatThe recovery move in the GBP/USD pair from the 1.2660 level appears to have initiated following the price's rejection at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous swing low. Our long-term forecast anticipates closing this position around 1.2760, as the COT report indicates a potential for USD strength outweighing that of GBP. Currently, the price is trading within a sideways range, presenting an opportunity for a strategy of buying at lower, discounted prices and selling at higher, premium prices.
Investors are now shifting their focus towards the upcoming release of the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for May, which is scheduled for publication on Friday. This data is crucial as it is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation.
The core PCE inflation data is expected to provide fresh insights into the timing and extent of future interest rate adjustments by the Fed. Annual underlying inflation is projected to have eased to 2.6% in May, down from the previous reading of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, the inflation rate is expected to have grown by 0.1%, a slight decrease from the 0.2% growth observed in April.
Given these conditions, we are looking to establish a bullish position within this sideways trading area, leveraging the price movements to buy low and sell high as the market dynamics unfold.
Could GBP/AUD reverse from here?Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially fall to the 1st support which has been identified as an overlap support.
Pivot: 1.13996
1st Support: 1.13163
1st Resistance: 1.14587
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish rise?GBP/AUD has just bounced off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.8916
1st Support: 1.8869
1st Resistance: 1.9060
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Brace for NFP, ECB Forum, and two major elections This week is set to be a pivotal one for global markets, with significant economic and political events on both sides of the Atlantic.
In the United States, the spotlight will be on nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week, with the economy expected to have added 180,000 jobs in June. This would mark a slowdown from the 272,000 jobs added in May and signal a cooling of the labor market.
Across the Atlantic, political developments in France and the United Kingdom are likely to dominate market movements.
France's Parliamentary Elections:
France held the first round of its parliamentary elections on Sunday. The far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, has surged to first place, securing 33.5% of votes according to recent polls. The second round of voting is scheduled for July 7.
The dissolution of the National Assembly by President Emmanuel Macron earlier this month has already caused volatility in French stocks. However, some see this as a buying opportunity. Eden Bradfield of BlackBull Research commented, "Our preference list includes Kering, LVMH, Richemont, Brunello, and Hermes at the right price."
Adding to the busy week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will host its annual forum in Sintra from Monday to Wednesday. The event will gather central bank governors, including Jerome Powell of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Roberto Campos Neto of the Brazilian Central Bank, Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England, and Christine Lagarde of the ECB.
On the economic front, Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for the Eurozone and Germany are due this week. These reports are anticipated to show a slight easing in inflation, which will be closely monitored by investors and policymakers alike.
UK General Elections:
In the United Kingdom, a major political shift is anticipated on July 4. Polls suggest a landslide victory for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and a major defeat for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, who have been in power for 14 years.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
Bearish drop?GBP/CAD is rising towards the pivot and could reverse from this level to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.73441
1st Support: 1.72280
1st Resistance: 1.74045
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Sell GBP/USD Channel BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.2675, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2635
2nd Support – 1.2610
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.2703. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
Bullish rise?GBP/CHF has reacted off the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.13127
1st support: 1.12690
1st Resistance: 1.13944
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?The Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.2605
1st Support: 1.2568
1st Resistance: 1.2702
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
A Brief History of the Pound (Strength and Weakness)
Black Wednesday, 16 September 1992
Black Wednesday, or the 1992 sterling crisis, was a financial crisis that occurred when the UK Government was forced to withdraw sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. This is when George Soros famously shorted the pound and made a 1 billion dollar profit.
Dot-com Bubble, 2000
The dot-com boom peaked on 10 March 2000. The bust followed, causing USD strength.
The GBP Boom, 2002-2007
The recent economic golden era for the UK. Inflation was steady, and economic growth was high.
The Global Recession, 2007/2008
The boom was inevitably followed by a bust—a financial crisis that shook the world. Cash flowed to dollars, yen, and Swiss francs.
I lived through this (and lost my employment). I started trading during the recovery.
Recession Recovery, 2009-2024
Global economies slowly recovered from the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Cash flowed back to non-dollar and non-yen currencies.
Brexit, 2015-2019
The GBP weakened due to the uncertainty of the UK leaving the EU. The EU referendum was held on 23 June 2016. The GBP continued to weaken on the referendum result and the UK leaving the EU.
I remember watching the pound fall the week after the referendum. The volatility was nothing I had ever witnessed... Until COVID!
COVID & High Inflation, 2000-2023
The global pandemic brought panic to the markets, weakening the GBP and strengthening the USD. This was followed by high inflation, further weakening the GBP and strengthening the USD.
I wonder where PEPPERSTONE:GBPUSD go from here?
Bearish drop?GBP/CAD has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could fall to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.73441
1st Support: 1.72280
1st Resistance: 1.74045
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?The Cable (GBP/USD) has reacted off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could potentially drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.2705
1st Support: 1.2606
1st Resistance: 1.2740
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Independence from the Tories: A new July 4th As the UK approaches the July 4th general election, the Labour Party is set to end the Conservatives' 14-year rule. According to the latest BBC poll tracker, Labour leads by 20 points, with 41% of the vote, while the Conservatives hold 21%, and Reform UK is at 16%.
Labour's pledge to improve EU relations could strengthen the pound by reducing Brexit-induced trade frictions. This potential easing could boost the UK economy and support sterling.
The pound has remained relatively stable ahead of the election, with the GBP/USD hovering near the 1.2700 mark. Despite the broad expectation of a Labour victory, traders appear cautious. A decisive break above this level could see buyers gaining control.
Given Labour's substantial lead in the polls, it is plausible that the market has already priced in a Labour victory to a significant extent. However, the actual impact on sterling and broader market sentiment will depend on the clarity and execution of Labour's economic policies post-election.
Bearish Momentum buildingLooking for my idea to play out but also trying not to be blind to my bias. We have news about to hit and it looks like it can send price bearish based on what has taken place during London session. if we can get a bearish break down for NY session today we might get 1 more solid move for the week.
EURGBP Overbought RSI, buy opportunity.The EURGBP pair hit on June 14 the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line0 of the 7-month (dashed) Channel Down and is on the rebound. At the same time, the 1D RSI got oversold (below 30.00) and every time it did so in the past 12 months, it started a strong bullish reversal.
More specifically the previous Bullish Leg of the Channel Down reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level to form its Lower High. As a result, we turn bullish on this pair, targeting 0.85500 (0.618 Fib).
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Falling towards 38.2% Fibonacci support?GBP/USD is falling towards a support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2666
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.2621
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.2714
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.