We have confirmation of Bear Pressure!Now that GU has finally broken structure we should be in store for a nice significant move to the downside. Sitting on hands till London Session.
GBP
Double top on GBP/JPY at key resistanceThe Japanese yen may have weakened following the BOJ’s latest ‘non decision’ regarding monetary policy, but markets clearly weren’t surprised enough for it to extend its bearish moves today. Not a single xxx/JPY pair managed to break above its cycle highs, and momentum is now turning lower on these pairs to show a strengthening of the yen.
But what has caught our eye is the double top on the GBP/JPY daily chart, as it has stalled around the December 2015 high. Also note that the GB-JP 2-year spread is also quite low relative to spot GBP/JPY, and it makes us wonder if GBP/JPY has risen too far, too soon.
The 1-hour chart shows that momentum has turned lower in the first half of Wednesday’s Asian session. Prices are trading beneath the 50-dar EMA and daily pivot, so we would consider shorts below 118.20 for an anticipated move to the weekly pivot around 187.25 – although the cycle lows or daily S1 between 187.32 – 187.40 could also be considered.
A break beneath the weekly pivot point assumes a deeper retracement is playing out on the daily chart.
GBPUSD Potential Continuation to downsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.25700 zone, GBPUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.25700 resistance zone.
Adding a fundamental layer, The Federal Reserve's recent warning regarding potential changes to its monetary policy stance, particularly the indication that rate cuts in the upcoming months are unlikely, has cast a shadow over the GBPUSD pair. This cautious stance from the Fed signals a potential strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies, including the British pound. With expectations for a more hawkish Fed in the near term, investors are reevaluating their positions in riskier assets and considering safer havens such as the USD. Consequently, this sentiment shift could exert downward pressure on the GBPUSD pair as traders recalibrate their expectations and adjust their positions in response to the evolving monetary policy landscape outlined by the Federal Reserve.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPUSD - Is catching a falling knife worth it?GBPUSD - 24h expiry
The primary trend remains bullish.
The selloff has posted a correction count on the daily chart.
A move lower faces tough support and we remain cautious on downside potential.
However, with the intraday chart now highlighting lower highs we are possibly forming a descending triangle pattern.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
We look to Buy at 1.2550 (stop at 1.2500)
Our profit targets will be 1.2690 and 1.2730
Resistance: 1.2650 / 1.2690 / 1.2730
Support: 1.2550 / 1.2500 / 1.2460
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HelenP. I GBP can exit from wedge and try break resistance levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you British Pound analytics. Some time ago price traded near the resistance zone, which coincided with resistance 1, but later it fell to this level, reached the trend line, and at once rebounded and made a strong impulse up to resistance 2. In a short time price broke this level, which coincided with one more resistance zone and rose higher. But soon, GBP turned around and started to decline back to resistance 2. Later price declined below this level, thereby breaking it again, and then continued to decline to the 0.8550-0.8565 resistance zone, and soon GBP broke resistance 1 and declined to the trend line, forming a wedge pattern. After the price traded near this line it rebounded from the trend line to the resistance line of the wedge, where the price continues to trades near. For my mind, I expect that the British Pound will make a little correction, after which the price turn around and start to rise to a resistance level. When the price reaches this level, GBP can try to break it and then make a retest, after which the price will continue to move up. So, for this reason, I set two targets, the first target at the 0.8550 resistance level, and the second - at the 0.8600 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
GBPAUD (and EURAUD) Looking at more upside to comeTradingview Ideas:
Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Likely more upside to come,let's see!
Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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GBPAUD: Technical Uptrend with Fundamental InsightsHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring GBPAUD for a buying opportunity around 1.93200 zone, GBPAUD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.93200 support and resistance area.
Now, let's delve into the fundamental aspect: Recent remarks from Huw Pill, the chief economist at the Bank of England, have stirred market interest. Pill hinted at the possibility of a shift in the central bank's stance regarding interest rates. His cautionary comments, particularly regarding geopolitical risks like those in the Middle East, suggest a nuanced approach to future rate decisions. This fundamental layer adds depth to our technical analysis, emphasizing the importance of monitoring central bank commentary alongside price action for strategic trading decisions.
BoE's Huw Pill Remarks: Implications for GBP Strength in EURGBP Greeting Traders!
In the upcoming week, our focus shifts to EURGBP for a potential selling opportunity around the 0.85500 zone. The pair has been navigating a downtrend and is currently undergoing a correction phase as it approaches the trend at the 0.85500 support and resistance area.
Turning to the fundamental landscape, recent statements from the Bank of England (BoE) hint at a possible shift in interest rate policy. Chief economist Huw Pill's remarks diverge from Governor Andrew Bailey's stance, suggesting a potential disagreement within the central bank regarding future rate movements. Pill's cautionary tone, particularly regarding external factors such as developments in the Middle East, hints at a more nuanced approach to rate decisions. He emphasizes the need for flexibility in responding to geopolitical events that could impact the economic landscape, indicating that such developments could influence the speed or direction of future rate adjustments.
Buy GBPJPY Channel BreakoutGBP/JPY M30 Channel Breakout Hints at Potential Upside: Buy Opportunity Emerges
The GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to a recent upward breakout from a channel pattern. This pattern suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside, potentially offering entry points for short-term long positions.
Key Points:
Upward Channel Breakout: The price has been trading within a channel defined by two rising lines, one for support and one for resistance. This indicates ongoing buying pressure and potential for further advance. However, a recent break above the upper resistance line signifies a potential shift in momentum towards the upside.
Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position around the current price of 186.60, which is close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near a potential continuation of the upward move.
Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the resistance levels of 187.48 and 188.17, marking previous resistance zones within the channel.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the support line of the broken channel, around 185.85. This helps limit potential losses if the price reverses and breaks back down.
Fundamental Updates :
BoE Meeting Minutes: Bank of England (BoE) meeting minutes reveal a hawkish tilt towards raising interest rates sooner than expected, it could strengthen the Pound against the Yen.
Weaker Japanese Yen: The Yen has been weakening recently due to the Bank of Japan's continued loose monetary policy, potentially supporting a rise in GBP/JPY.
GBP/USD:Unraveling the Impact of UK Wage Growth DataGBP/USD:Unraveling the Impact of UK Wage Growth Data
The Pound Sterling finds itself at a crossroads following the release of disappointing UK wage growth figures for the quarter ending November. Despite steady employment levels, the looming economic challenges cast a shadow on the currency's performance. A risk-off sentiment prevails, further intensified by concerns over UK inflation data, keeping the Pound Sterling under pressure.
Market Response:
During Tuesday's European morning session, the GBP/USD took a step back as the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) unveiled a slowdown in Average Earnings data for the three months leading up to November. This unexpected deceleration adds to the complexity of an already challenging economic landscape.
Economic Challenges:
The UK economy faces the ominous prospect of a technical recession, with the ONS reporting a contraction in the third quarter of 2023. The Bank of England (BoE) shares a cautious outlook, expressing less confidence in any growth during the final quarter of 2023. Factors such as higher interest rates and an escalating cost-of-living crisis contribute to the prevailing economic uncertainty.
Technical Analysis:
Examining the GBP/USD from a technical standpoint, the price retraced to the Demand Zone around the 61.8% Fibonacci area. This area becomes particularly significant due to the confluence with the Supply zone and the presence of the dynamic trendline within the Bullish Channel. Additionally, the Stochastic indicator signaling an Oversold condition presents an intriguing opportunity for traders. This setting potentially offers a discounted buying opportunity, with an optimistic outlook for a price surge aligned with the ongoing Bullish trend.
Conclusion:
As economic challenges cast a shadow on the Pound Sterling's performance, traders and investors closely monitor the technical landscape for potential opportunities. The convergence of factors, including the economic headwinds, technical indicators, and the cautious stance of the BoE, shapes the narrative for the GBP/USD. How the Pound navigates these challenges will be pivotal in determining its trajectory in the coming sessions.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.25350 with targets at 1.2750 & 1.2850 in extension
Predicted Path for GBP/JPY
Traders,
Let's delve into the forecasted path for GBP/JPY:
Trend Analysis:
Upon examining the daily chart, we notice a resilient bullish channel that, despite being broken previously, has resurfaced with vigor. Furthermore, the strength of bullish candles outweighs downward movements.
Potential Obstacles:
Anticipate some hurdles or resistances along the upward trajectory. These include:
The daily resistance at approximately 188.600,
The declining trendline, and
The bottom of the channel.
These levels can serve as strategic points for trade entries or exits.
Potential Starting Point:
Consider initiating the upward movement between the levels of 186.00 and 185.00.
Keep a keen eye on these dynamics as you navigate GBP/JPY.
Best of luck in your trading endeavors!
GBPUSD TO LONG DURING NFPNon farm payroll is today and my projection for GBPUSD is that it will long, but for that to happen, I am projecting a retrace to the 50EMA where it is our area of interest before it buys to 1.27588.
GBPUSD H4 Bullish ChannelGBP/USD H4 Bullish Channel: Opportunities for Both Long and Short
The GBP/USD pair on the H4 chart currently exhibits a bullish channel pattern, offering potential short-term buy and sell opportunities depending on price action. Here's a breakdown:
Buy Opportunity:
1. A potential buy entry could be considered near the current price as it hovers closer to the channel support. This allows for some buffer before a potential bounce upwards.
2. Targets for the bull case would be the upper resistance line or potentially even higher depending on momentum and confirmation from other technical indicators.
Shifting to Short:
1. A break below the lower support line of the channel would signal a breakdown of the bullish trend, opening up potential sell opportunities.
2. Entry points for shorting could be considered just below the broken support or on a retest of the broken line.
3. Targets for the bear case would be the previous swing lows within the channel or deeper depending on bearish momentum and confirmation from other technical indicators.
Central Bank Decisions:
Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting and Interest Rate Decision (Jan 31): This is the biggest event. A hawkish Fed with a large rate hike (75bps+) and strong economic projections could significantly strengthen the USD against the GBP. Conversely, dovish hints or smaller increases could favor the GBP.
Bank of England (BoE) Meeting and Interest Rate Decision (Feb 2): While the BoE is expected to raise rates again, the focus will be on the size (25bps or 50bps) and future policy guidance. Dovish pronouncements could weaken the GBP, while hawkish inclinations might offer some support.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb 2): A robust US jobs report might reinforce hawkish Fed expectations and weigh on GBP/USD. Conversely, weaker data could dampen USD strength and lend some support to the pound.
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GBPCAD SHORTSGBPCAD since the beginning of the week have been moving bearish and in respect to this, I plan to stick to the trend, the daily and the weekly also shows the bearish trend, and to follow this I expect this pair to retrace to the 50 Exponential moving average and we short to the 800 Exponential moving average.
Is this the Breakout we be looking for???We finally got a push to the upside after seeing price test the previous weeks low and reject. now we looking like we could break the highs on multiple time frames.
GBP/USD - Trade Idea - ICT ConceptsHere is a trade idea on the GBP/USD chart, 1h timeframe.
There is a nice Breaker + Sibi that may offer a trade. It is critical that it comes at the right time.
Sell GBPCHF Bearish ChannelThe GBP/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe exhibits a bearish channel pattern, suggesting a potential selling opportunity in the coming minutes or hours. Let's delve deeper into the details:
Key Points:
Bearish Channel: The price has been trading within a downward-sloping channel defined by two converging lines: a falling resistance line and a falling support line. This pattern often indicates ongoing selling pressure and the potential for further decline.
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0940, which is close to the channel resistance. This could offer an entry point near a potential reversal point.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the support levels of 1.0892 and 1.0867, marking previous support zones within the channel.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the channel resistance line at 1.0965. This helps limit potential losses if the downtrend breaks unexpectedly.
Fundamental Updates :
UK Bank of England (BoE) meeting minutes: Due for release later today, these minutes could shed light on the central bank's future monetary policy stance. Hawkish signals might boost the Pound, while dovish ones could weaken it.
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan's speech: Scheduled for tomorrow, February 2nd, any comments about potential interventions or the economic outlook could impact CHF sentiment.
Thank you
GBPCHF SHORTSI have analyzed and seen the weekly and daily timeframe being bearish, these are the main timeframes, so I went to the four hour timeframe to look for opportunity to short, then I spot the resistance zone just below the 50 exponential moving average, now expecting a retracement to the moving average then take shorts.
GBPAUD TO CONTINUE ITS BULLISH RUNGBPAUD is expected to buy more after it makes it retracement to our support zone and our 50 Exponential moving average that correlates with the 50 moving average, then we buy to the net four hour highs.
GBPUSD: Analysis Pre BOE Rate decision. Today's focus: GBPUSD
Pattern – Consolidation Watch
Support – 1.2665, 1.2610
Resistance – 1.2751
Hi, and thanks for checking out today's video update. We are looking at the GBPUSD today as the price continues to consolidate in a rough ending diagonal pattern. We have also chosen the cable as we have the UK rates decision to come out later today. Depending on what we see from the BOE, this could be a catalyst to break the price out of its current deadlock.
Yes, we do have a consolidation in an uptrend but its not a traditional continuation pattern so we are waiting to see if, and where price breaks ou before we start thinking about directional calls. Rates are expected to remain on hold, so we will be looking for policy clues in the statement. Will we see a breakout today?
We have run over scenarios for price and points we will look at for potential confirmation.
UK Interest Rate decision is due today at 11:00 pm.
Good trading.
Sell GBPJPY Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/JPY pair presents a potential selling opportunity on the H1 timeframe, fueled by a recent bearish breakout from a triangular consolidation pattern.
Key Points:
Bullish Triangle Breakout: Though seemingly counterintuitive, the price has broken downward from a bullish triangle formation, characterized by converging resistance and support lines. This often indicates a reversal of the prior upward trend and a shift in momentum towards the downside.
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price near 187.40, offering an entry point close to the breakout level.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the support levels of 186.05 and 185.16, marking previous support zones within the triangle.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the resistance line of the broken triangle at 188.70
Fundamental Updates :
Bank of England (BoE) Meeting and Interest Rate Decision (Feb 2): While the BoE is expected to raise rates again, the focus will be on the size (25bps or 50bps) and future policy guidance. Dovish pronouncements could weaken the GBP and benefit selling GBP/JPY.
Thank you.
Choppy Consolidation thus far...GU is consolidating and staying within a range so I am now monitoring for a breakout from this range to possibly take out highs for the end of the month. It is the last day of the month before we hop into a new month with all the news pending I'm sure some opportunities are ahead.
EURGBP: Technicals and ECB Policy ShiftIn today's trading session, our focus is on EURGBP, where we are eyeing a selling opportunity around the 0.85800 zone. Technically, EURGBP is trading in a downtrend and currently navigating a correction phase towards the 0.85800 support and resistance area. Now, delving into the fundamental layer, we are inclined towards a bearish stance on the Euro due to potential rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) in April. The recent policy stance of the ECB indicates a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance. President Lagarde's avoidance of calendar guidance in favor of data dependence further underscores this shift.
The ECB's acknowledgment that data have been trending positively, albeit faster than expected, suggests a willingness to act preemptively if economic conditions warrant it. The latest PMI data, while showing signs of improvement in the manufacturing sector, also hint at supply disruptions affecting delivery times, which could temper the overall economic recovery. Additionally, disappointing forward-looking indicators like the fo climate index and subdued inflation expectations from ECB surveys contribute to a cautious outlook on the Euro's prospects.
As such, the constraints on the ECB are easing, paving the way for potential monetary policy adjustments in the coming months, including the possibility of rate cuts. This shift in policy stance and the accompanying real rate differentials could weigh on the Euro against other currencies, including the British Pound. In light of these factors, maintaining a bearish outlook on the Euro seems prudent, with EURGBP positioned for potential downside movement in the near term
