Gbpaudsignal
GBP/AUD short IdeaFundamental side of the idea :
The AUD by contrast is currently pressured alongside falling Iron prices. If these prices keep falling then AUD will face weakness. The Australian economy exports large amounts of Iron ore, so its price impacts the AUD.
On The Other side we are seeing Inflation climbing faster , and Metals are making new High , and that should serve and make AUD strong again .
Ultimately, the pound remains sensitive to the trajectory of UK inflation and the Bank of England’s monetary policy. UK inflation jumped to 1.5% in April from 0.7% in the prior month, though remains well below the BoE’s 2% target. There is certainly plenty of scope for the BoE to substantially tighten monetary policy should it view inflation as a threat, a development that could be significantly bullish for the pound. But we still Far away from that .
Technical side of the idea :
According to the technical analysis of the pair: So far, despite the weakness of the upward Trend , i am seeing a significant weakness on GBP , starting from forming a continuation pattern , to not breaking above some Fib Levels that were critical .
P.S : The weak US dollar provides some reason to be Bullish on the Australian Dollar .
Thank you .
Do Not hesitate to Contact me For any kind of Quist .
S.Sadki
GBPAUD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upWith over 200pips in our direction since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes), It appears we are at a juncture in the market that calls for another trading opportunity as the Bullish tendencies continue to build up from a Double Bottom structure.
The British Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) benefited as the first quarter Australian inflation rate failed to pick up thereby suggesting that inflationary pressure has picked up within the Australian economy as the Aussie failed to take any particular encouragement from this data.
Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish)
Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Channel | Reversal pattern
Observation: i. Since price action broke above Key level at the beginning of the year, the price has continued to thrive above this level most of the time.
ii. After I connected the lower highs and lower lows of price with parallel trendlines since late March 2021 to date, the price has been respecting a Channel that depicts a downward trend.
iii. Since finding bottom @ AU$1.77500, the appearance of a Double Bottom - a strong reversal pattern emphasizes a rally as the price continues to find Higher highs which culminated into what looks like a Channel Breakout (see chart) during last week trading session.
iv. As I remain patient for buying opportunity on this pair, my Key level @ AU$1.78700 shall remain a yardstick for a trading opportunity in the coming week(s).
Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:5
Potential Duration: 4 to 8days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPAUD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upDespite moving over 250pips in our direction since my last publication; the Bullish tendency projected never gained significant traction as the price finally broke down the Bullish Trendline which also coincides with my Key level @ AU$1.80000 during last week trading session (see link below for reference purposes). As my previous Bullish bias appears to slip away considering the recent breakdown of Key level and previous Bullish trendline, I shall be looking forward to Bearish tendencies this coming week(s) around and below my Key level @ AU$1.80000.
Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish )
Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand
Observation: i. It is fascinating how the Key level @ AU$1.80000 has served as a major determinant of the prevailing bias of price action in the last 36days.
ii. Demand zone which has held price "supported" in the last 14days appears to have handed the baton to the Bears as breakdown followed by rejection of this level points at a possible shift in perspective has happened.
iii. My Key level @ AU$1.80000 shall be my yardstick for Bearish expectations in the coming week as any spot below this level is good for me to open a position!
iv. This been said, I am advising that taking this trade requires utmost attention as the tendency of an uptrend can not be ignored considering the observations made in my last publication (see link below) and factors that might disrupt this setup giving way for an immediate rally continuation can happen anytime (hereby considering the Breakdown a false one!)... trade consciously :)!
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:3.5
Potential Duration: 5 to 12days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.