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Gbpaudsignals

GBPAUD | Perspective for the new weekThe continuation of bearish pressures appears to be emphasized at the AU$1.89150/1.89550 area. Since late August 2021, it can be observed that price continue to reject this area as buyers find it difficult to push prices further. Following a continued rejection of AU$1.8950 which also makes a confluence at exactly 61.8% retracement of prior bearish momentum and the disappointing UK Retail Sales report failing to boost the British pound across major pairs, I see an opportunity to t ake a bearish bias on this pair in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (61.8% retracement) Observation: i. The line drawn under pivot lows is a visual representation of the support level which reveals the prevailing direction of price action since the beginning of September 2021. ii. As far back as April 2019, the AU$1.89150/1.89550 is a zone that has a memory for bearish momentum. iii. The Bullish Trendline guided price back to AU$1.89350 during last week trading session to form a Double Top look-a-like. iv. Double Top: Having an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern right inside a Supply zone appears to be a signal that a risk of a further decline in price is imminent as long as the price breaks below AU$1.88400 (Neckline) in the coming week(s). v. Below Key level @ AU$1.88950 remains a comfortable zone to sell the Pound for the Aussie in the coming week(s). vi. A further breakdown/retest of AU$1.88400 welcomes an opportunity to add to our existing position... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 2 to 7days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2
GBPAUD | Perspective for the new weekA Breakout of channel negated my speculation on this pair as price continued to find new highs (see link below for reference purposes) and the appearance of a Double Top structure at this juncture in the market insinuates a risk of further decline if price successful breakdown Neckline @ AU$1.87800. Positive development unfolding as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expecting that once the covid restrictions end, the economy would stage a quick rebound as it revised down its 4Q GDP forecast by 0.75%. Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Double Top) Observation: i. It is very glaring that the Pound has imposed a show of strength over the Aussie since the beginning of the year 2021 hereby registering an 8.7% gain to culminate at AU$1.89800 at the end of July 2021. ii. The appearance of Double Top structure at the very peak of the Bullish run inspires an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern after the price touched a peak two consecutive times (AU$1.89800 & AU$1.89230 respectively) with a moderate decline between the two highs. iii. Even as sellers continue to make attempts to close below Neckline @ AU$1.878000 in the last two weeks, positive developments from the RBA incites a possible strength for the Aussie at least for the meantime as we anticipate a Breakdown of AU$1.87800 in the coming week(s). iv. In this regard, I have identified a supply niche around AU$1.88500/1.88740 - an area I suspect momentum for selling opportunity as below key level remains a comfortable zone to open a position. v. A successful Breakdown/retest of Neckline shall be an opportunity to add a position to our existing position. vi. For the meantime, I am assuming that the Bearish expectation might be a correction of the impulse leg (see weekly chart below) until proven otherwise...Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 3 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
1
GBPAUD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsWith over 600pips in our direction since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes); The price hit a peak around AU$1.85000 in June 2021 and has since then continued to find lower lows. The appearance of a Double Top structure on the chart is a very strong clue that hints at a reversal momentum building as we experience a significant Breakdown of Key level I @ AU$1.84100 during the course of last week trading session. In the UK, the newly appointed Health Secretary Sajid Javid insisted that the reopening remains intact, showing confidence about returning to normal. However, as cases continue rising – and hospitalizations are inching higher – market participants tend to cast doubt over loosening of restrictions on July 19 which might have a negative impact if not indecision on the Pound in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Channel | Reversal pattern (Double Top & Triple Top) Observation: i. It has been a Bullish run for the Pound since the beginning of the year - 2021 hereby hitting a peak @ AU$1.85000 which is followed by a lower high to transition into a Descending Channel. ii. The inability of price to touch and surpass the previous high (AU$1.85000) increases doubt on a further rally as a Double Top pattern emerges on the chart. iii. Double Top: We do have an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern in play after the price reached a peak two consecutive times (AU$1.85000 & AU$1.84800 respectively) with a moderate decline between the two highs. iv. Even as we await a confirmation which will happen if the price falls below the support level @ AU$1.82700 (Neckline of Double Top) that equals the low between the two prior highs; there is an evident structure that occurred between 30th June & 2nd July 2021 which is characterized by multiple rejections of AU$1.84600 (Triple Top) that signals Bearish tendency in the coming week(s). v. TRIPLE TOP: formation of three peaks moving into the same zone @ AU$1.84600, with pullbacks in between can be considered complete immediately the price broke down pattern support @ AU$1.84000 on the 2nd of July 2021, indicating a further price slide in the coming week(s). vi. The early hours/days of the new week might see a price climb to test the Neckline of Triple Top @ AU$1.84000 to incite further decline. vii. If a climb happens, I have identified a niche around AU$1.83900/1.84400 for selling opportunities. viii. A plunge below Key level II @ $1.83500 (Breakdown/Retest) might welcome an addition to the existing position and a further plunge below AU$1.82700 welcomes another addition... Trade consciously! :) Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:6 Potential Duration: 3 to 7days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
2
GBPAUD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upWith over 200pips in our direction since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes), It appears we are at a juncture in the market that calls for another trading opportunity as the Bullish tendencies continue to build up from a Double Bottom structure. The British Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) benefited as the first quarter Australian inflation rate failed to pick up thereby suggesting that inflationary pressure has picked up within the Australian economy as the Aussie failed to take any particular encouragement from this data. Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Channel | Reversal pattern Observation: i. Since price action broke above Key level at the beginning of the year, the price has continued to thrive above this level most of the time. ii. After I connected the lower highs and lower lows of price with parallel trendlines since late March 2021 to date, the price has been respecting a Channel that depicts a downward trend. iii. Since finding bottom @ AU$1.77500, the appearance of a Double Bottom - a strong reversal pattern emphasizes a rally as the price continues to find Higher highs which culminated into what looks like a Channel Breakout (see chart) during last week trading session. iv. As I remain patient for buying opportunity on this pair, my Key level @ AU$1.78700 shall remain a yardstick for a trading opportunity in the coming week(s). Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 4 to 8days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
GBPAUD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upDespite moving over 250pips in our direction since my last publication; the Bullish tendency projected never gained significant traction as the price finally broke down the Bullish Trendline which also coincides with my Key level @ AU$1.80000 during last week trading session (see link below for reference purposes). As my previous Bullish bias appears to slip away considering the recent breakdown of Key level and previous Bullish trendline, I shall be looking forward to Bearish tendencies this coming week(s) around and below my Key level @ AU$1.80000. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand Observation: i. It is fascinating how the Key level @ AU$1.80000 has served as a major determinant of the prevailing bias of price action in the last 36days. ii. Demand zone which has held price "supported" in the last 14days appears to have handed the baton to the Bears as breakdown followed by rejection of this level points at a possible shift in perspective has happened. iii. My Key level @ AU$1.80000 shall be my yardstick for Bearish expectations in the coming week as any spot below this level is good for me to open a position! iv. This been said, I am advising that taking this trade requires utmost attention as the tendency of an uptrend can not be ignored considering the observations made in my last publication (see link below) and factors that might disrupt this setup giving way for an immediate rally continuation can happen anytime (hereby considering the Breakdown a false one!)... trade consciously :)! Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3.5 Potential Duration: 5 to 12days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
GBPAUD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upMy very first speculation this new year was on the GBPAUD and since this publication price has moved over 500pips in our direction as we finally experience a Breakout of AU$1.80000 as predicted (see link below for reference purposes). It appears the major GBP pairs are taking a synchronic upturn following renewed confidence in the UK economy amidst reports that Covid-19 infections have fallen by two-thirds! Tendency: Uptrend ( Bullish ) Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. During the last quarter of 2020, buyers gave in to the strong pressure of Sellers due to a shaky UK economy. ii. Last year ended on a Bearish note for the Pound as a successful Breakdown of my Key level @ AU$1.80000 in December 2020 was followed by strong selling pressure from this level (rejection). ii. Bullish Trendline: The line drawn under pivot lows (Pivot I & II) expresses the prevailing direction of participants in the market as the trend continues to find Higher Highs which finally culminates into a Breakout of Key level last Friday. iii. It is worthy to note that this is the first time this year that the price will close above AU$1.80000 (Key level). iv. Even though the Breakout is not fully confirmed, I have a strong feeling that the Sellers have finally given in to the Buying pressure. v. In this regard, I shall be looking for trading opportunities above AU$1.80000 as I peg my new Demand zone around AU$1.78000/1.8000 in the coming week(s). vi. Please note that as Bullish expectations become high, it is necessary I state here that significant Breakdown of Trendline might consider this bias invalid... Trade consciously :)! Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 800 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 25 to 40 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on a lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
7
GBPAUD | Perspective for the weekHappy New Year! It is another new year and we are beginning with a Bullish expectation on the GBPAUD pair as the Double Bottom structure guides us to a potential Higher high in the coming week(s). As at the time of writing the exchange rate for the pair is dangling around AU$1.77040 as we look forward to the appropriate price to buy the Pound Sterling. Tendency: Uptrend ( Bullish ) Structure: Reversal pattern | Supply & Demand | Double Bottom Observation: i. The fall of Pound found the bottom in September 2020 @ AU$1.7500 and it appears sellers are finding it difficult to push below this level as price experienced a sharp rejection of this level again in December 2020. ii. Double Bottom: Rejection of this level (AU$1.7500) the second time followed by Higher Highs give rise to the opinion that we might be at the verge of a reversal. iii. This been said, it is appropriate that we remain cautious as we grope for confirmations at this juncture in the market. iv. In this regard, my anticipation of a significant Breakout of AU$1.7900 level and maybe followed by a rejection of this level could be enough reason to hop in the rally. v. It is worthy to note here that a significant Breakdown of our proposed Demand level might consider this bias invalid... Stay tuned! Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 600 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 10 to 20 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
1