SELLING GBP/AUD from 1.9771Last Thursday's daily candle on GBP/USD (25th July) closed with a nice long tailed pinbar.
Becuase of this and becuase the RSI on D1 closed at 83.42 , I've been keeping my on this pair in anticipation of a move south.
The next 4 daily candles were all doji indecision candles and with the RSI moving to 79.45, then GBP/AUD looked ready for a move south.
However.
Its imperative that if you have a trade planned and you intend to hold the trade overnight then you MUST check for news.
This morning at 02:00 UK time, the CPI numbers were released and though the CPI q/q and CPI y/y met target, the Trimmed Mean CPI missed coming in 0.8% against 1.0% expected.
This was sufficient for the AUD to sell off aggresively and GBP/AUD was sent 151 pips higher.
A look on the H4 time frame and you can see that the previous 2 H4 candles form a pincer/double op and the current H4 candle is BEARISH.
This looks a good opportunity for SHORT trades.
The ANdean Oscillator on H4 is rising from zero as the green BUY line crosses the signal line.
These are BEARISH signs.
RSI is declining.
MACD has yet to catch up on H4 but on M30 the fast MA has crossed the slow MA and on H1 the 2 MA's are moving together and edging south.
All the signs are that this pair is moving lower and with AUD/USD turning BULLISH then I think this trade has a good chance.
Target is open but the band of support at 1.9620 area looks a potential target although tomorrow BOE Monetary Policy and MPC Bank Rate makes all technical analysis redundant.
