GBPCAD Tests Bearish Trendline – Focus Shifts to BoC DecisionGBPCAD is currently respecting a well-defined descending trendline, showing multiple rejections and a sustained series of lower highs. The latest retest near 1.8460 was met with selling pressure, aligning with the broader bearish channel.
Key Levels:
Current Price: 1.8458
Resistance Area: 1.8470 – 1.8600 (trendline & previous highs)
Support Targets:
TP1: 1.8120 (key structure)
TP2: 1.7980
TP3: 1.7900 (major support zone)
Bearish Technical Confluence:
✅ Multiple rejections at trendline
✅ Lower highs & lower lows continue
✅ Potential reversal candlestick pattern forming
✅ Bearish breakout could accelerate toward 1.7980
📉 Fundamental Outlook – BoC Rate Decision in Focus (April 16)
Market Sentiment Split:
Initially, economists leaned toward a BoC hold, as recent data and trade optimism gave the central bank room to pause.
However, March CPI undershot expectations, triggering increased speculation of a rate cut.
Key Data Highlights:
Headline CPI fell to 2.3% YoY vs 2.6% previously, well below the 2.7% forecast.
Drop mainly due to gasoline and transport costs, which BoC may look through.
Core inflation (median 2.9%, trimmed 2.8%) remains elevated, supporting arguments for a hold.
Analyst Viewpoint:
“We still marginally favor a BoC hold given the proximity to elections and resilience in core inflation, but our conviction is lower after the CPI miss.” – Knightley & Pesole, ING
Market Reaction:
Loonie sold off post-CPI, but analysts believe the sell-off may be short-lived if BoC surprises with a hawkish hold.
Swap market odds of a cut rose to 45%, up from 33% pre-CPI.
🎯 Combined Technical + Fundamental Setup
If BoC holds rates, expect CAD strength → GBPCAD could accelerate downward toward 1.8120 → 1.7900.
If BoC cuts, GBPCAD may spike temporarily toward 1.8600, but downside pressure may resume unless accompanied by dovish forward guidance.
🛠️ Trade Plan:
Sell Bias Below: 1.8470
Entry Trigger: Bearish confirmation or post-BoC rejection
TP1: 1.8120
TP2: 1.7980
TP3: 1.7900
Invalidation Zone: Break and close above 1.8600
