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GBPEUR

Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP – The pound slid against the euro edged down slightly against the dollar on Thursday as traders assessed whether recent gains linked to expectations of a central bank rate hike had gone too far. Reuters noted that “investors remain wary about the timing of any move, however, after the BoE surprised markets earlier this month by keeping rates steady when many had understood the hike was coming.” While Citi also reminded that “there are longer term concerns for the currency amid wrangling between the European Union and Britain over the Northern Ireland part of the Brexit deal.”
by thunderpips
3
GBPEUR on bearish momentum | 1st OctPrice is currently trading in a descending trend line . and is currently at price level 1.610. Price can potentially dip to the take profit level of 1.1573 which is in line with our Fibonacci extension level of 50% and Fibonacci retracement level of 78.6%. Our bearish bias is further supported by our EMA and Ichimoku cloud indicators. Alternatively, our stop loss is placed at 1.1642 which is in line with our Fibonacci extension level of 78.6%. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
2
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar hit highs not seen in more than four months against the euro, as investors speculated further over whether recent strong jobs data could be enough to push the Federal Reserve to soon start tapering its bond-buying program. Bannockburn Global Forex argues that “the dollar is well bid, and it’s been well bid since the middle of last week. A combination of hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials and the second monthly increase of more than 900,000 jobs has reaffirmed what the market has suspected, and that is for a tapering decision to be made shortly.” GBP – Sterling rose to an 18-month high against the euro, as signs of economic recovery and falling COVID-19 rates spur expectations of a far earlier interest rate lift-off compared to the Eurozone.
TVC:DXY
by thunderpips
3
GBPEUR - Long-Term AnalysisFor the time being, the pair has just past the middle trend of its rising channel and has touched its falling trend. (+) 1.17 level will be the target for the future. Apart from that, 1.20-1.21 levels should be followed if the price wants to touch the upper point of the channel. (-) However, if prices come back from here, 1.12 will be a significant boost first. In the case of the problem, 1.11 can be expected. It contains only personal views and opinions. Does not contain legal investment advice ...
by EmoteK
FX Update: Not looking for a smooth ride for USD bears in 2021Summary: The market narrative is overwhelmingly positive for a reflationary rebound and for a weaker US dollar in 2021, an outlook we are largely sympathetic to, but plenty can still go wrong, and the speculative fervor of the momentum is the most clear and present danger for a correction sooner rather than later. Elsewhere, the Brexit deal was the dampest of squibs for sterling. FX Trading focus: Markets are positioned for very aggressive assumptions about 2021 The US dollar is near its cycle lows as 2021 comes into view, driven by the anticipation that a reflationary recovery in 2021 is in the offing, with a Fed intent on keeping the pedal to the metal with a blind eye to inflation as long as unemployment hasn’t normalized to pre-Covid-19 levels and pent-up savings ready to be unleashed on travel and entertainment once we begin rounding the corner on the vaccine roll-out by the second half of next year. It all sounds great and hopefully this is the way it will pan out, but the market feels extremely aggressive here in stating its case – too aggressive, in fact. I recently outlined a pre-FOMC list of the “last few hurdles” for USD bears that included concerns about the status of stimulus talks in US Congress and the FOMC meeting itself. The latter, of course, provided no real hurdle, while the news yesterday that Trump has finally caved on his hold-out for larger stimulus checks clears away another obstacle for USD bear. The last major risk I outlined is one that remains unresolved; namely long US yields and whether these are poised for a breakout that could support the USD fundamentally to a degree, but more importantly could trigger a consolidation in global risk sentiment. This is clearest and most present danger for markets (and for USD bears) in the near term as we have simply reached a remarkable degree of speculative excess, with participants having extrapolated expectations too aggressively and having become too leverage up and one-sided in its positioning. A consolidation could even take the shape of a mini-crash. If this is indeed what unfolds, the Fed and other central banks will have only themselves to blame, having so thoroughly conditioned the market that the central bank put strike price simply gets set higher and higher, encouraging the aggressive risk taking that can make the market so fragile and crash prone and then in need of the next round of policy response. It’s an unhealthy and destructive cycle and needs to end before the policy response required is larger than what they can deliver. Brexit deal is “thin”, as are the shouts of joy from sterling bulls here A Brexit deal was finally struck just before Christmas that settled the most immediately disruptive issues linked to trade in physical goods, but as a number of good breakdowns of the remaining opening questions about the post-Brexit period remind us, the tougher aspects of the post-Brexit landscape may only reveal themselves slowly in the months and years to come, particularly the fall-out for the UK financial services industry, which was long the “crown jewel” of the UK economy that helped spark massive capital inflows to offset the UK’s huge external deficits in traded goods. The status of that industry and in general of capital inflows into the UK will be the dominant driver of sterling over the next few years and the currency and UK assets are very cheap. Sterling will only begin to look less cheap if a reflationary recovery brings vicious negative real rates to the UK that erode the currency’s fundamental value relative to its peers. Have a look at something like GBPNZD as a pair that looks a bit silly in the long run below the level of 2.00. Chart: EURGBP weekly It was tempting to put up a GBPUSD chart rather than a EURGBP chart today, as the former has breached a very important chart level at 1.3500 again, but because almost all of that development is down to the weak US dollar of late, it is more important to measure the effects of the Brexit deal on sterling via EURGBP, where the price action is underwhelming, particularly given the collapse in short-term implied volatility in the options market on the clearing away of near term uncertainty. The lack of a reaction is a significant red light for sterling bulls and a reminder that longer term uncertainties remain for sterling, especially the fate of its very important financial services industry, where the outlook and the final shape of post-Brexit reality are uncertain. That said, sterling is still cheap in this pair and I would prefer to look toward 0.8500 rather than 0.9500 as an eventual direction in 2021, even if not ready to start in that direction right away. John Hardy Head of FX Strategy Disclaimer The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. 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by Saxo
GBP/EUR - LongPrice has returned to the support level of the ascending channel. Previously, the price has rejected at this support line and turned bullish towards resistance. currently, the price is touching on the 200 day EMA. If price holds at the 200 EMA and the bulls come into play, I believe we could see some bullish momentum for GBP/EUR towards the 1.270 level (an area of previous resistance). Before I enter a long trade, I will look to see if the price holds at the 200 EMA and then look for rejection at the support level by looking for closed 4JH bullish candles. GBP has been volatile recently, so this trade should be taken with caution, knowing that fundamentals could come into play and cause unexpected movements.
Long
by francesgurton