GBPEUR
GBPEUR more trouble to come ?We had a lot of fun riding this explosive short squeeze. But this may be the perfect bull trap. The sentiment among short term traders is very bullish. Also, recognize the perfect shoulder head shoulder formation, this is too good to be true. We may go a litte higher, but according to our wave scenario, there is one more massive downwave missing. This selling wave should lead to the support level of 1,01. There, a new wave analysis has to clearify, if we may expect a longterm change in trend.
Much more weakness is likely in GBPEURTwo chart patterns are in play right now for FX_IDC:GBPEUR on a long term scale. First of all, GBPEUR is breaking out from triangle, with target at around 0.98. And further there is an option that GBPEUR is forming head &shoulders pattern. H&S would be confirmed, if currency pair breaks neckline around 1, then pound may drop as far as to 0.75-0.80 region.
As it is long term pattern, be ready that this scenario may play out over next few years, and not something to expect in next few months. However, with brexit deadline getting closer, more volatility certainly is likely.
As of now, short with stop at around 1.125 may be attempted for more downside.
EURGBP first step of bull trap confirmation. Part 2Previous analysis:
Anyone willing to do a long term trade on EURGPB, now is the time. small confirmation of a possible bull trap move. Been watching it for weeks now, didn't dare to really short it earlier because it simply didnt want to drop . Drew the blue line 2/3 weeks ago, assuming they might do a final shake out. Well, maybe this is it now.
It should not get above the high anymore.
Break of the first green in the middle is a big step, break of the second green is the real confirmation. Now, for it to be real, doesnt mean a straight line drop , but it needs to happen relatively fast.
So far almost perfect, caught the high of this (still unconfirmed) bull trap and we can possibly sit on this one for quite some time. We need to break that green zone in the middle. It has the shape of an H&S, so if it breaks, think we can say the bull trap is confirmed and should drop towards that green zone on the left, target zone of the bearish wedge. Ideally we see a right shoulder form there so we can enjoy profits for a few more weeks/months. That red zone on the right should not break anymore. If that one breaks, the bulls might try to break the 0.90xx resistance. That is really a key level now to keep the bull trap alive.
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Previous analysis:
EURGBP first step of bull trap confirmation. Anyone willing to do a long term trade on EURGPB, now is the time. small confirmation of a possible bull trap move. Been watching it for weeks now, didn't dare to really short it earlier because it simply didnt want to drop. Drew the blue line 2/3 weeks ago, assuming they might do a final shake out. Well, maybe this is it now.
It should not get above the high anymore.
Break of the first green in the middle is a big step, break of the second green is the real confirmation. Now, for it to be real, doesnt mean a straight line drop, but it needs to happen relatively fast.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Pre Brexit GBP-EUR set for more fallsGBP looking set for more down even after falling for 10 weeks. Risk of ego driven no-deal Brexit will be calculated this week. Parity with Euro is very close.
Boris Johnson Is likely to be elected the new Prime Minister of Britain by an aged and unrepresentative 0.2% of the population. Brexit cannot be achieved through normal parliamentary democracy - and so to protect the Tory party (party before country attitude) the only way to achieve Brexit is by nefarious means - no matter how disastrous it will be for the country. GBP will be dumped in July.
EURGBP - Downside from 0.9000?If I die, I die... lol
Prices has come to the illusive 0.9000 region, multiple rejection wicks on the 4hr and daily.
Market made a drive to 0.90 and rejected, we are looking for a daily close to confirm a false break and the potential to reverse to the downside.
This is going to be a long (How ironic) one, prepare your swaps and commission.
Remember your risk management...
aaaannnndddd... Pippin' ain't easy.
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EURGBP time for a correctionEURGBP made a huge pump past weeks so it looks like we might have reached the point for a correction now. If we break the green in the middle, i will give it a try. The red in the middle should not be crossed anymore.
The green on the right can become a big support, so if that breaks it could drop even more.
Previous analysis:
GBPEUR: scenario for a hard BREXITI'm not really interested in currency due to being pretty boring markets more than anything, but it is a necessary evil in our world. GBP is interesting for me being British and also because of its long market history spanning many centuries. It's story has been one of decline for many, many years now as the Americans took over what remained of the British Empire. The creation of the EU and Euro (both of which the UK has strenuously tried to undermine since their inception) will be the final nail in the coffin imo. But I am a transnationalist at heart.
Europe & BREXIT
The European project, in its present form, dates back to the 1957 Treaty of Rome in which the European Economic Community (EEC) was born. Britain was not party to the treaty, nor was it welcome, at least not by the leading founder France. From their point of view, the goal was always a strong union, i.e. political, military and economic. As many will agree, the history of Central Europe has always been dominated by the struggle between the Germans and their neighbours. The Second World War was yet another deeply tragic cycle in this terrible dance. But the ambitions of Germany's neighbours, not least France, have likewise come at the cost of others (not least Germany: France strongly opposed German reunification for example). It seems Europe is a zero sum game and post-war circumstances meant that Paris could once again take the lead in shaping the New Europe according to its Gallic vision. However that vision did not include the old enemy Britain, whose role in European history was always to defend its position at the periphery and to muddy the waters of Continental ascendancy as much as possible ( perfidious Albion ).
They were right of course! Since joining in 1973 (only after the ousting of de Gaulle), Britain has done little but derail those early French ambitions with successive Prime Ministers and opinion-makers opposing European integration measures and treaties. On top of this, the German Miracle shifted the focus from Paris to Berlin in the 1990s. The German's, clever as ever, understood the benefit of the Euro for the export markets (which also conveniently also allowed their trading partners in Europe access to cheap credit). They also knew that they were on the cusp of greatness once again as the Wall came down and those markets to the east became accessible. Today, it seems, it is the Germans that have the most to lose from European disunity, yet we notice the most vocal detractor of Britain in the BREXIT-era is France's new centre-right leader, Emmanuel Macron. For the Gaullist elite, BREXIT (and the harder the better) is a godsend; the Germans, whose greatest leader ever is about to retire (and believe me, there is as yet no other figure that can unify such a bipolar country), will not oppose greater political and military integration so long as they can still have a guiding hand at the top and, more importantly, keep control of the economic union.
From this perspective, I believe that certain European factions that uphold the original de Gaullist agenda would like to see the back of the United Kingdom in the form of a hard BREXIT. At the same time, Germany and its allies would much rather see, at most, a soft BREXIT based on maintenance of the European Economic Area (EEA). Unfortunately, this latter position is roundly rejected by British Eurosceptics and lies at the heart of the problem.
Therefore, in my opinion, there is no deal which will satisfy all parties!
If a soft BREXIT is forced, it will be a fudge and contrary to the spirit of the original 2016 referendum result. Let us therefore assume for now that a hard BREXIT is on the cards. What does the chart say! How much room is there for the market makers to crash this market?
But this is just another alarmist scenario!
Normally I would say, yes. But do not underestimate the historical significance of a hard BREXIT. This will give the market makers the once in a lifetime opportunity to push the GBPEUR pair to historic lows and test the strength of the Euro over the pound. Also remember the Euro is the dominant currency in the Dollar Index basket and remember it constitutes China's second largest foreign reserve holdings. The one fundamental weakness of a Europe-with-a-strong-Germany is that it is at heart fundamentally weak: historic cycles dictate that a strong Germany is most often followed by a weak Germany. Despite what popular 'alt'-media would you like to believe, Germany (which is a very disunited country in terms of both religious (catholic/evangelic split) and regional culture) has boomed in the last two decades not least due to the uniting effect of one Angela Merkel - possibly the greatest German Chancellor ever - who united East and West, South and North, city and country. And she is leaving office...
It is a watershed moment, and as usual nothing is certain.
EURGBP Analysis: Bullish Chart Pattern Conclusion for today’s EURGBP Analysis: Price closing above 0.86758 implies continuation of the bullish price swing from 0.84719.
EUR GBP analysis for today is carried out on a 6 hour timeframe candle stick chart, with major attention drawn to price action between February 27, 2019 and April 16, 2019.
The duration mentioned above saw the EUR GBP form a major bottom reversal pattern referred to as complex, inverted head and shoulders (or a head and shoulders bottom). It is referred to as “complex” due to the presence of more than one right shoulder (RS) in this case.
The implications of the complex, inverted head and shoulder are the same as that of a regular head and shoulder bottom. The bearish trendline drawn on the chart also helps provide the neckline for the bullish pattern.
Confirmation of the pattern occurred with price closing above the neckline on April 16, 2019 with the EURGBP currently consolidating above the chart pattern.
The width of the pattern estimated as the y-axis (price) distance from the neckline to the Head (H) of the pattern can be measured and then projected on to the break out point. This provides the minimum expectation of a bullish price swing in the EUR GBP.
Also shown on the chart is the 50 moving average and 200 moving average, with the former crossing over the latter to the upside. This is also argues for a bullish bias in the EUR GBP in conjunction with the chart pattern that is already confirmed.
Conservative strategies involve going long once and if price retraces back to its neckline and consolidates. Even more conservative is to buy on a breakout above 0.86758.
Use of the complex, inverted head and shoulders pattern to initiate a long (buy) position automatically implies using the price low of the head of the pattern as a stop loss i.e. the EURGBP must not close below 0.84719.
EURGBP bullish wedge, inside of long term bear trendLooks like we have a legit wedge on the right now. At the moment it's at the support, so i am giving it a first half entry here and wait for it to move up and increase on the breakout. So i will start small on this one, because the wedge on the left broke, which could mean something else is going on. So not an ideal setup, but still worth a shot IMO.
I will be using 2 targets here, maybe a third, but that depends on how things move if we move up.
Previous analysis i showed the bigger wedge on the left, where we had a big move up a week ago but that long term resistance pushed the price down a lot again. So my thought now is, we will see a second attempt which can make a lower high (red line) or a higher high (blue line) before the bear trend resumes again.
Previous analysis:
GBPEUR Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A ReversalGBPEUR is approaching its resistance at 1.1722 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 1.1572 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is expected.
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Tusk Gives UK an UltimatumNow that we know we have a bit of an extension until April 12th, but that will be extended into May if Parliament passes Prime Minister May's deal she made with the EU earlier in the month which had already lost by a staggering 150 votes. That's quite a bit to make up in 20 days. Overall, I'm now quite negative on every pound pair. Here's more words and charts on the topic if you're interested: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
EURGBP Triangle Scalp, Inside of a WedgeOn the right looks like a legit triangle in the making. It has dropped a lot the past months and when looking on the left chart, we can see the drop is slowing down in the shape of a bullish wedge. Don't know if it will break out of it, because when zooming out, the picture is very bearish for on the long term. The yellow circle is the target of the triangle, which is also around the resistance of that wedge. Below that red resistance it can still fail.
Previous analysis: