GBPJPY Forming down channel after a break of the up channel
On the daily there are some interesting things happening;
What counts against the trade is the EMA50 was broken with a serious bull candle but the 0.618 Fib level is being respected.
Pro's
There is a clear up channel break and it is text book trading on the Weekly candles.
Set SL at 147.500 and there is a lot of protection; 2 Major Fib levels and the down channel that formed trend line.
With a profit to risk ratio of just over 2 this is a go......
Cons
The EMA50 (D) might hold......
Things to remember
This is a setup making use of W and D candles so it might take some time to play out; patience will be key!!!
Gbpjpysell
GBPJPY SHORT IDEAON THE WEEKLY PRICE JUST BROKE OUT OF THE RISING WEDGE AND IS CURRENTLY DOING A PULL BACK FOR A BEARISH MOVEMENT TO THE 125 LEVEL.
ON THE DAILY CHART, PRICE IS IN A TEXTBOOK DESCENDING TRIANGLE
ON THE 4HR CHART, THERE IS AN INTERSECTION OF THE RESISTANCE AND A TRENDLINE AT THE 150 LEVEL, i AM HOPING PRICE WILL GET TO THAT LEVEL AND THEN TURN BACK WARDS.
I WOULD SET A SELL LIMIT ORDER AT THAT POINT.
GBP/JPY: Bearish - Breakout Potential Technical Analysis
The April Trend Line continues to be respected indicating the bears are still in control, with a potential breakout looming in the following days. To change my Mid-Term outlook to Bullish id be looking for GBPJPY to close above 149.9 level
Fundamental Analysis
This week Brexit is front and centre for Sterling with the European Council set to meet on June 28-29. Brexit will be discussed on Friday, June 29 so look for headlines concerning the matter to be delivered throughout the day. Markets are simply looking for concrete outcomes that give a clear view on what the future will look like. Perhaps this week we will get such outcomes. Sterling in its fragile state will be very susceptible to huge sell offs dependent on the outcome of this Friday's meeting.
Yen Strength is a key factor to consider when justifying GBP/JPY shorts as the dollar has fallen to a two-week low against the yen on the back of the latest global trade war concerns. For JPY, we saw the Nikkei dropped 176.21 points on the close last Friday, with stocks extending their losses on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Monday, battered by the yen's strengthening against the dollar amidst increacing worries over the growing trade friction between the United States and the rest of the world.
GBPJPY Short RetestThe pair has gone up to retest former support and treating it now as resistance, which is obviously a reason to short the pair. But not only that, this pair has now touched the trendline resistance and the 0.618 zone on the FIB, another reason to short the pair. Overall market projection is Bearish, and lets get those sell orders in with a entry on a nice rejection candle.
GBPJPY ShortPair seems to be starting to form a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. With disappointing CPI and Average Earnings news this week, and risks in Syria which makes safe haven assets like Yen more appealing, GBPJPY is more likely to consolidate in the near future instead, if not drop all the way down to 146-148. This is despite expectations on BoE rate hike this May (which is more likely priced in by now). Setting up sell stop just a few pips below this week's support with TP @148 (base pivot on weekly chart) and SL near this week's resistance @154.
www.dailyfx.com
Daily:
Weekly:
Confidence: B (because of geopolitical risks involved)