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GBPJPY - Look for Continuation Long (SWING) 1:7!After the recent Yen hike, which was increased after a long period due to the BOJ's negative interest policy, the price pulled back from the HTF resistance. With the latest news of the BOJ planning to cut down the rates, this setup is fundamentally supported. Let's see if the market is generous enough to deliver what we forecasted. Since this is a swing setup, medium risk management should be followed. Don't put everything into one basket, if you know what I mean. Happy trading! Disclaimer: This is simply my personal technical analysis, and you're free to consider it as a reference or disregard it. No obligation! Emphasizing the importance of proper risk management—it can make a significant difference. Wishing you a successful and happy trading experience!
Long
by S-Fx_
GBPJPY - Look for Continuation Long (Scalping) 1:3!GBPJPY has created a new low on the HTF, indicating a potential opportunity to enter during a correction or pullback. Ensure multiple confirmations and confluences before placing a position. Avoid greed with this setup, as a bearish continuation is possible on the HTF, with the SL set at the nearest HL. If the market is favorable, we may see the price bounce to the nearest demand zone before continuing the correction to the nearest R. Don’t chase the market. Remember, FOMO is a disease! Disclaimer: This is simply my personal technical analysis, and you're free to consider it as a reference or disregard it. No obligation! Emphasizing the importance of proper risk management—it can make a significant difference. Wishing you a successful and happy trading experience!
Long
by S-Fx_
2
GBPJPY - Look for Continuation Long (SWING) 1:4!GBPJPY did not show any signs of turning bearish. The price failed to create a new lower low on the higher time frame, and there are no signs of a reversal chart pattern, indicating that the volume of buyers is still strong, with the potential to push the price higher and create another all-time high. The price reacted strongly at the Fibonacci retracement golden zone, suggesting an opportunity to go long. Regardless of the situation, protect your capital and manage your risk. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Disclaimer: This is simply my personal technical analysis, and you're free to consider it as a reference or disregard it. No obligation! Emphasizing the importance of proper risk management—it can make a significant difference. Wishing you a successful and happy trading experience!
Long
by S-Fx_
7
"Speculation Mounts on Early Fed Rate Cuts"Investors are increasingly hopeful about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of the upcoming year, despite officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, maintaining that rate cuts are not currently on the table. Some analysts suggest a possible rate cut as early as the first quarter. Recent inflation figures and real-time forecasts indicate a noticeable economic slowdown since summer, deviating from the robust growth seen in the third quarter. Futures contracts reflect a growing belief in a rate cut within the next few months, with a 44% chance of the first cut occurring in March. If these predictions hold true, the impact on the Fed's longer-term strategy of raising interest rates could be significant, according to economists like Diane Swonk from KPMG. The Fed's two-day policy meeting this week is expected to conclude with the central bank maintaining the highest interest rates in 22 years for the third consecutive meeting. Officials will also release updated economic projections, likely indicating a faster-than-expected cooling of inflation. Despite some officials, including Powell, suggesting it's too early for rate hikes, investors believe the Fed's commitment to data-dependency may lead to early rate cuts. Powell's recent comments in Atlanta, stating no plans for rate hikes, resulted in a stock market surge as it echoed his dovish stance.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Sustains Three-Week Rally, Holding Above 1.2550GBP/USD has rebounded to the 1.2550 level after nearing 1.2500 in the latter half of the day following a stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data of 199,000 in November. Despite the recent recovery, the pair remains on track to secure a three-week winning streak. GBP/USD may face immediate support at 1.2550-1.2560 (static level, Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the latest uptrend). Closing below this level in the 4-hour chart could attract technical sellers, opening up the possibility of an extended decline to 1.2500 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2470 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%). On the upside, 1.2600 (psychological level, static level) is considered a temporary resistance level before 1.2640 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart) and 1.2700 (static level, psychological level). GBP/USD closed positively on Thursday but failed to attract additional buyers early on Friday. The last time the pair was seen below 1.2600, with market focus shifting to the US November labor market data. Improved risk sentiment led to a loss in the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, helping GBP/USD record a small daily gain. On Friday, US stock index futures trading was mixed, suggesting investors should exercise caution. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly employment report is expected to show an increase of 180,000 in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) in November. Earlier this week, US employment-related figures indicated loosening conditions in the labor market. A disappointing NFP print below 150,000 could reaffirm the labor market recovery and immediately pressure the USD. On the other hand, a strong NFP index above 200,000 could counter market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy change starting in March and help the USD maintain its position by the end of the week. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a nearly 60% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates to 25 basis points in March.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Holds Below 1.2600, Despite Modest Daily GainsGBP/USD rebounded to the 1.2600 level after hitting a two-week low around 1.2550 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggled to find demand on Thursday amid increasing signs of loosening conditions in the US labor market ahead of Friday's employment report. The 1.2600 level (20-period Simple Moving Average - SMA) is considered immediate resistance for GBP/USD, followed by 1.2650 (static level, 50-period SMA), and 1.2700 (static level). On the flip side, strong support lies at 1.2560, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-period SMA. If GBP/USD drops below this level and utilizes it as resistance, the next downside targets could be 1.2500 (psychological level, static) and 1.2470 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). The interplay between these support and resistance levels will likely shape the near-term movements of GBP/USD as traders monitor key technical and fundamental factors.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Reverses Course Towards 1.2700 Before Weekly Close GBP/USD has extended its recovery from around 1.2600 and is approaching 1.2700 due to the weakened US Dollar. The greenback lost momentum following comments from Fed's Powell. The daily chart for the GBP/USD pair shows it trading around 1.2650 after reaching a peak of 1.2674 in the morning European session. The pair is performing well above its moving averages, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average aiming to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs, often a sign of strong buying pressure. Meanwhile, technical indicators are pulling back from overbought levels but lack downside strength, reflecting limited selling pressure. Looking ahead on the 4-hour chart, the risk seems to be diminishing. The flat 20-period SMA limits the upside around 1.2675, although the 100 SMA maintains a much gentler upward slope than the current level. Finally, technical indicators point southward, with the Momentum indicator dipping below the 100-level and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding at a neutral level. A more substantial decline could be anticipated if the exchange rate breaks below 1.2605, the immediate support level. Support levels: 1.2605, 1.2570, 1.2525 Resistance levels: 1.2680, 1.2730, 1.2780 GBP/USD is poised for a stronger stance on Friday, recovering from the Thursday low of 1.2603. Hawkish comments from Bank of England (BoE) officials have supported the British Pound. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene stated that monetary policy would need to remain restrictive for an extended period to achieve the central bank's 2% inflation target. Greene also expressed concerns about prolonged inflation. Additionally, BoE's Jonathan Haskel noted that low unemployment rates could keep interest rates elevated. On the data front, the UK released the Nationwide House Price Index, which increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month in November, surpassing expectations. S&P Global also published the final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI for November, adjusted upwards to 47.2 from the preliminary estimate of 46.7.
by Larissa-Trader
GBPUSD Reassesses Support Levels Amidst Building Bearish MomentuThe GBPUSD pair is currently contending with downward pressure as it approaches recent lows near 1.2603. This downward move has caused the currency pair to slide below the 200-hour moving average, standing at 1.26212. Sustaining positions below this moving average may continue to empower sellers. However, there's a noteworthy support zone ranging from 1.2589 to 1.2602. A decisive break below this range could amplify the bearish sentiment. Should this occur, the next significant target for traders would be the 38.2% retracement of the November trading range, situated at 1.25240. This level holds particular significance following the prominent downtrend observed in November; breaching this retracement level is crucial to confirm seller dominance. The next downward momentum could focus on the convergence of the 100 and 200-day moving averages around 1.2475. Conversely, if the support zone between 1.2589 and 1.2602 holds firm, and prices bounce back above the 200-hour moving average at 1.26212, it could provide assurance to buyers that the short-term low might have been established. In this scenario, the next bullish target would be the 100-hour moving average at 1.26714, offering potential for a reversal in the currency pair's direction.
by Larissa-Trader