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GBP/USD Strengthens Above 1.2400 Amid Dollar Challenges"The GBP/USD pair consolidates its overnight slide from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around the psychological level of 1.2500, or the two-month high, trading in a narrow range in Thursday's Asian session. Meanwhile, the spot price attempts to hold above the significant 1.2400 mark, contingent on the price dynamics of the U.S. Dollar (USD). The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), tracking the greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on the modest recovery from its lowest since September 1, amid the Federal Reserve's dovish expectations. These bets were reassessed after Tuesday's U.S. CPI report, indicating a milder-than-expected decline in consumer inflation, suggesting a cooling economy. Furthermore, markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of the Fed starting interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024, driving down U.S. Treasury bond yields and acting as a hurdle for the greenback. Additionally, the prevailing risk-acceptance environment is seen weakening the safe-haven status, providing some support for the GBP/USD pair. However, the upward trend is constrained as more anticipate the Bank of England (BoE) initiating interest rate cuts soon, reinforced by a slight drop in UK consumer inflation on Wednesday. In fact, the UK's monthly CPI remained unchanged, and the annual rate plummeted sharply from 6.7% to 4.6% in October – hitting a two-year low. Moreover, the core CPI also decreased from 6.1% in September to 5.7%. The mixed fundamental backdrop ensures caution among risk-seeking traders, waiting for clear short-term direction, especially with no significant macroeconomic data from the UK on Thursday. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic calendar includes regular weekly jobless claims, the Fed Philly Manufacturing Index, and industrial production figures. This, along with U.S. bond yields and broader risk sentiment, may influence USD price dynamics and allow traders to seize short-term opportunities around the GBP/USD pair.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Slips to 1.2450 on Weak UK Inflation DataGBP/USD faces modest downward pressure, dropping to 1.2450 in European trading on Wednesday. UK CPI inflation fell to 4.6% YoY in October from 6.7% in September, causing the British Pound to lose ground. The pair struggles to find firm footing above the 1.2300 level on daily closing basis, potentially paving the way for an extended recovery toward the psychological level of 1.2350. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points upwards around the midline, indicating an ongoing upward momentum for the pair. The next resistance level is envisioned at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2437. However, if the upward trend stalls, immediate support will likely be seen at the 50-day SMA at 1.2255, below which the 21-day SMA at 1.2205 may test bullish commitments. Further decline could challenge the 1.2100 demand area. The extended three-day recovery of GBP/USD in European trading on Tuesday, driven by positive mixed employment data in the UK, appears to be limited as traders exercise caution ahead of the highly significant US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The outcome of Wednesday's UK inflation data could significantly impact the Bank of England's interest rate outlook, adding volatility to the British Pound. Ahead of the crucial US CPI data, FXStreet's Senior Analyst Yohay Elam notes that unexpected results above 0.2% could lead to market reevaluation. A surprise decline in inflation might fuel Wall Street's rally while exerting pressure on the US Dollar. However, an as-expected release may immediately positively affect stocks and create pressure on the US Dollar, even if the core CPI remains high. Simultaneously, the pair may receive signals from improving risk sentiment, reflected in the slight uptick of 0.12% in the US S&P 500 futures contract.
by Gwen_Humuna
GBP/USD Maintains Uptrend Above 1.2250 GBP/USD saw an increase from the 20-day SMA to 1.2280 on Monday and is consolidating around 1.2275 in the early Asian trading session, supported by the ongoing weakness of the US Dollar. Attention is shifting towards employment data in the UK and crucial US CPI figures on Tuesday. The currency pair reversed its direction after testing the 1.2200 level, with an upward trending line, the 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart aligning, emphasizing the significance of the support level and the sellers' hesitation. On the upside, GBP/USD faces immediate support at 1.2260 (SMA50) followed by 1.2300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.2340 (static level). Support levels are set at 1.2200, 1.2140 (static), and 1.2100 (psychological level). What are your thoughts on this currency pair?
by Larissa-Trader
1
GBP/USD Surpasses 1.2200 Level After UK GDPGBP/USD extends its slide below the 1.2200 level in early US trading. UK GDP data reveals a better-than-expected 0.6% year-on-year growth in the third quarter. However, these figures fail to propel the currency pair as investors await next week's key data for clearer direction. The ascending trendline, the Fibonacci retracement level of the latest downtrend, the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, and the 200-period SMA collectively form a robust support level at 1.2200. If GBP/USD drops below this level and confirms it as resistance, the next downside targets could be set at 1,2140 (static level) and 1,2100 (static level). On the upside, 1,2250 (SMA 50) is considered a dynamic resistance level ahead of 1,2275 (SMA 20) and 1,2300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Consolidates Below 1.2200GBP/USD has entered a consolidation phase after testing the resistance at 1.2200. The upward momentum of the British Pound seems to pause, preparing for the Bank of England (BoE) policy announcement on 'Super Thursday.' The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains near 50, indicating indecision in GBP/USD. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) forms immediate resistance at 1.2175, followed by 1.2200 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest downtrend, SMA 200). A close above this level in the 4-hour timeframe could attract technical buyers and pave the way for an extended recovery towards 1.2260 (psychological level). On the flip side, the initial support lies at 1.2100 (psychological, static level) followed by 1.2050 (recent downtrend low) and 1.2000 (psychological, static level).
by Gwen_Humuna
GBP/USD Extends Gains Above 1.2150 Level"In the US trading session, GBP/USD rose to its highest level since last Wednesday, surpassing the 1.2170 mark. The pair was supported by a weaker US dollar on Monday, as market participants awaited US employment data, as well as the Fed and BoE meetings. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remained below 50, and GBP/USD closed the last 4-hour candle below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating the downtrend is still intact. On the flip side, 1.2075 (a static level) is considered a temporary support before 1.2050 (the recent low) and 1.2000 (a psychological level). The 50-period SMA formed dynamic resistance at 1.2140, ahead of 1.2180 (the 100-period SMA) and 1.2200 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, and the 200-period SMA).
by Gwen_Humuna
1
EUR/GBP Extends Gains Near 0.8720 Ahead of German Data"EUR/GBP has continued its upward trend for the second consecutive day, trading near the 0.8720 level in early European trading on Monday. The currency pair received support ahead of significant economic data releases from Germany. However, preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Germany is expected to show a 0.3% decline for the quarter, with a 0.7% year-on-year decrease, compared to a 0.2% decline in the previous report. Additionally, initial forecasts for the Consumer Price Index (MoM) indicate a decrease of 0.2%, down from the previous 0.3%. Furthermore, the Euro weakened following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to maintain the deposit interest rate at 4.0%, reflecting concerns about the deteriorating economic outlook in the Eurozone. ECB President Christine Lagarde is navigating a delicate balance, steering the central bank through a challenging economic landscape. Maneuvering between a weakening economy and strong inflationary pressures is no easy task. With the increasing complexity of monitoring the Middle East crisis, relying solely on data seems unwise. On the other hand, the British Pound (GBP) may face challenges as traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. Many predictions suggest that the central bank will maintain its current interest rate at a 15-year high of 5.25% due to growing concerns about economic recession. The UK economy is feeling the strain due to high-interest rates, adding to the challenges posed by persistent inflation. Economic data indicates significant declines in various sectors, coupled with high inflation, putting additional pressure on household budgets.
by Gwen_Humuna
GBP/USD Hits Three-Week Low Below 1.2100"GBP/USD extends this week's decline from near 1.2300, touching a three-week low in Asian trading on Thursday, pressured by a stronger US dollar. The pair weakens further below the key 1.2100 level and faces selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart drops below 50, and the latest 4-hour candles close below the 100-period and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), indicating a downtrend. The level at 1.2100 (a psychological threshold) is considered the main support. If buyers fail to defend this level, further losses towards 1.2050 (the recent low) could be witnessed. To attract technical buyers, GBP/USD needs to surpass the resistance zone of 1.2190-1.2200, where the 100-period SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level converge. In this scenario, 1.2250 (the 200-period SMA) and 1.2300 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level) could be seen as the next resistance levels. After a sharp decline on Tuesday, GBP/USD rallied back to 1.2200 on Wednesday. However, market caution prevented a sustained recovery. US data released on Tuesday revealed that private sector business activity expanded slightly faster in early October compared to September, with the S&P's global composite PMI improving from 50.2 to 51. While US Treasury bond yields continued to decline, the US dollar benefited from the optimistic PMI data, putting pressure on GBP/USD. In early European trading on Wednesday, US stock index futures traded negatively, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note maintained a modest daily increase of around 4.85%, supporting the US dollar. In the latter part of the day, the US New Home Sales data for September will be considered for new momentum. Some policymakers at the Federal Reserve have expressed concerns about the negative impact of high-interest rates on the housing market. Therefore, a significant decline in this data could immediately harm the US dollar. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its initial estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.
by Gwen_Humuna
GBP/USD Approaches 1.2270 Ahead of PMI DataGBP/USD continues its upward momentum since Thursday, trading above the 1.2270 level in the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair receives support from the US Dollar (USD) adjustment, coupled with improved risk sentiment. Although GBP/USD started higher after testing the 1.2100 level, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains below 50, indicating the downward trend persists. If the pair closes below 1.2100 in the 4-hour timeframe, sellers might take action. In this scenario, the 1.2050 level (the recent low) could be the next target before 1.2000 (psychological level). On the upside, the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) forms a dynamic resistance at 1.2150, preceding 1.2180 (SMA 100) and 1.2200 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downtrend). Feel free to let me know if you need further assistance or if there's anything specific you'd like to add!
by Gwen_Humuna
2
GBP/USD Dips, Awaits UK CPI DataGBP/USD faced consecutive losses, trading around 1.2160 in Asian markets on Wednesday. Positive US economic data applied pressure. The pair retreated after reaching 1.2200, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) confirming significant resistance. The 4-hour chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 40, indicating accumulating bearish momentum. Immediate support lies at 1.2130 (static level). Closing below it in the 4-hour timeframe could bring further selling pressure, possibly testing temporary support at 1,2100 (static, psychological level) before targeting 1,2050, the recent downtrend's endpoint. If GBP/USD rises above 1,2200 and confirms it as support, it could aim higher towards 1,2250 (static) and 1,2300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). The pair reversed its trend after breaching 1,2200 on Monday, dropping to the 1.2150 region on Tuesday. Short-term technical outlook indicates bearish momentum and potential additional losses if the 1,2130 support fails. US Retail Sales data for September is on the economic horizon, with a negative surprise possibly impacting the USD. However, GBP/USD might stand firm unless a significant, positive market sentiment change occurs. Stay tuned for updates on this evolving situation.
by Gwen_Humuna
1
GBPJPY, to swing up to retest the Year's high of 186.735GBPJPY made a breakout of the ascending channel since 28th July 2023 and went up to channel the year's high at 186.672 on the 17th of August 2023. Price pulled back to 184.110 support. The pull back has been happening in a descending channel from 16th August when it broke out of the descending channel and was looking to retest the channel last Friday, 2nd September and rebounded on the 183.530 support. What do I expect?? The price will swing up to retest the year's high of resistance (186.735) or the yearly resistance trendline closer to the year's high as shown.
Long
by AbeikuGlobal_FX
1
GBPJPY - SHORT; Looking for a Top hereThe Pound found itself rather unimpressed on the heels of the recent inflation data prints. Speculation abound whether there is one more rate hike left in the BoE, before long? (Likely.) Even so, everything (including the kitchen sink) has already been factored into the Pound crosses thus, any short fall in inflation prints from here on out are likely to have severe (down side) consequences! This pair has been quite overextended, already, above 170.00. The EUR/GBP is showing signs of an intermediate bottom, following its recent drop. (Thus, if anything this is the pair to look for Shorts, vs. the EURJPY.) Overall, both pairs EUR/JPY and this one, GBP/JPY are somewhere very close to a (very!) long term top, e.g., both pairs are deserving some unmitigated attention at this point. Looking for Short Entries here Here is the Daily view; ... and here is the EURGBP;
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
21