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Gbpjpyshort

21% chance BoJ hikes rates on 19 Dec! There is currently a 21% probability that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates during its upcoming meeting on December 19. This would really send shockwaves through yen pairs on the day. Yesterday’s huge gains in the yen against the US dollar and British pound are just a glimpse of the possible volatility this action could cause. Yesterday BoJ policymakers may have suggested a potential shift away from their ultra-low interest rates. But are markets getting ahead of themselves and squinting just a little too hard into their crystal balls? Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda mentioned that policy management would become "even more challenging from the year-end and heading into next year,". The mention of the “year-end” has led to speculation that the central bank might move away from negative interest rates at its next policy meeting. The thing is: The boJ has been dangling this possibility in front of traders ever since Ueda took up position as Governor. So, maybe a short play on the yen is still a possibility as the BoJ likely disappoints again during its next interest rate decision.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBP/USD Reverses Course Towards 1.2700 Before Weekly Close GBP/USD has extended its recovery from around 1.2600 and is approaching 1.2700 due to the weakened US Dollar. The greenback lost momentum following comments from Fed's Powell. The daily chart for the GBP/USD pair shows it trading around 1.2650 after reaching a peak of 1.2674 in the morning European session. The pair is performing well above its moving averages, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average aiming to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs, often a sign of strong buying pressure. Meanwhile, technical indicators are pulling back from overbought levels but lack downside strength, reflecting limited selling pressure. Looking ahead on the 4-hour chart, the risk seems to be diminishing. The flat 20-period SMA limits the upside around 1.2675, although the 100 SMA maintains a much gentler upward slope than the current level. Finally, technical indicators point southward, with the Momentum indicator dipping below the 100-level and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding at a neutral level. A more substantial decline could be anticipated if the exchange rate breaks below 1.2605, the immediate support level. Support levels: 1.2605, 1.2570, 1.2525 Resistance levels: 1.2680, 1.2730, 1.2780 GBP/USD is poised for a stronger stance on Friday, recovering from the Thursday low of 1.2603. Hawkish comments from Bank of England (BoE) officials have supported the British Pound. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene stated that monetary policy would need to remain restrictive for an extended period to achieve the central bank's 2% inflation target. Greene also expressed concerns about prolonged inflation. Additionally, BoE's Jonathan Haskel noted that low unemployment rates could keep interest rates elevated. On the data front, the UK released the Nationwide House Price Index, which increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month in November, surpassing expectations. S&P Global also published the final estimate of the Manufacturing PMI for November, adjusted upwards to 47.2 from the preliminary estimate of 46.7.
by Larissa-Trader
GBPUSD Reassesses Support Levels Amidst Building Bearish MomentuThe GBPUSD pair is currently contending with downward pressure as it approaches recent lows near 1.2603. This downward move has caused the currency pair to slide below the 200-hour moving average, standing at 1.26212. Sustaining positions below this moving average may continue to empower sellers. However, there's a noteworthy support zone ranging from 1.2589 to 1.2602. A decisive break below this range could amplify the bearish sentiment. Should this occur, the next significant target for traders would be the 38.2% retracement of the November trading range, situated at 1.25240. This level holds particular significance following the prominent downtrend observed in November; breaching this retracement level is crucial to confirm seller dominance. The next downward momentum could focus on the convergence of the 100 and 200-day moving averages around 1.2475. Conversely, if the support zone between 1.2589 and 1.2602 holds firm, and prices bounce back above the 200-hour moving average at 1.26212, it could provide assurance to buyers that the short-term low might have been established. In this scenario, the next bullish target would be the 100-hour moving average at 1.26714, offering potential for a reversal in the currency pair's direction.
by Larissa-Trader
GBPJPY → Remains on the defensive despite reclaiming 185.00FX:GBPJPY recovered some ground, but it remains trading with losses of 0.31%, late in the North American session, due to risk-off impulse as investors slashed bets the US Federal Reserve would cut rates as aggressively as traders expected. The cross-pair is trading at 185.86 after hitting a daily high of 186.54. The pair dipped to a nine-day low at 185.08 before bouncing off those lows but it is hovering around the 185.80s area. That said, Monday’s price action is forming a hammer, which implies the GBP/JPY could retest higher prices. The first resistance would be the 186.00 figure, followed by the Tenkan-Sen at 186.86. Once cleared, the next resistance would be 187.00. On the other hand, a bearish resumption could happen if GBP/JPY sellers drag prices below 185.00. That would pave the way to test the Kijun-Sen at 184.71, followed by a support trendline at around 184.25/35, before falling to the 184.00 mark.
Short
by tradingconmike
Main trend for GBPJPY marketSaw a drop of more than 0.20%, with the Japanese Yen gaining strength against major currencies. Despite the pair's overall uptrend, recent price action has formed a 'double top' pattern, suggesting further confirmation is needed, with the price breaking below 184.46. Conversely, a move above the November 28 daily high of 187.87 could set the stage for the pair to test the year-to-date high at 188.80. The H1 chart shows that bulls are still dominating the market, continuously creating downward declines, challenging the nearest support zone of 186,280. The Japanese yen appreciated against major currencies and fell by more than 0.20%. Despite the pair's overall uptrend, recent price action has formed a "double top" pattern, suggesting that the price needs further confirmation below 184.46. Conversely, a rise above the intraday high of 187.87 on November 28th could be a stepping stone to test the year-to-date high of 188.80. The first half chart shows that the bulls are still in control of the market, causing continued declines and challenging the next support zone at 186,280.
Long
by NicoTradingMaster
GBP/JPY!! 29/11 DOW theory, SELL NOW⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️ Personal comments NOVA: According to the DOWN theory, the price has formed a very beautiful H1 chart. Supports the upcoming DOWN trend ⭐️ SET UP GBPJPY PRICE: 🔥SELL GBP/JPY zone: 187.100 - 187.250 SL 187.600 TP1: 186.800 TP2: 186.500 TP3: 186.200 ⭐️ Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️ NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account - The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Short
by Nova-Scalper
3
GBPJPYThe FX:GBPJPY retreats on Tuesday by more than 0.20%, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) appreciated further against most G8 FX currencies. Market participants estimate that central banks in developed countries would cut rates, boosting the appetite for the Yen's safe-haven status and Gold. Therefore, the pair is trading at 187.24 after hitting a daily high of 187.87. Even though the GBP/JPY remains bullish, price action during the last couple of days, has formed a ‘double top’ chart pattern, implying that lower prices are coming. Nevertheless to confirm the pattern, the cross must drop below the November 21 swing low at 184.46, but sellers must breach support levels on its way to the latter. The first support would be the Tenkan-Sen at 186.55, followed by the Senkou-Span A at 185.63. A decisive break, the pair would dive to the Kijun-Sen at 184.71, before testing the latest cycle low. Once done, the ‘double top’ chart pattern targets the 180.50 area. On the flip side, if GBP/JPY buyers reclaim the November 28 daily high at 187.87, that could open the door to challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high at 188.80.
Short
by tradingconmike
GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2600 Amid Thin Trading ConditionsGBP/USD is trading near the 1.2600 level, sustaining its recovery post the mixed U.S. PMI data on Black Friday. The pair is strengthened by a weaker U.S. Dollar and robust UK PMI data released on Thursday. Thin trading conditions may amplify GBP/USD price action. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart comfortably stays above 50 on Friday, and GBP/USD continues to trade above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a short-term uptrend. The level at 1.2550 (static level) is marked as a pivot point. After confirming this level as support, GBP/USD could target 1.2600 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend from July to October) and 1.2670 (static level from August). On the flip side, 1.2525 (upper limit of the ascending regression channel) may be considered the first support level, followed by 1.2500 (psychological level) and 1.2450 (static level).
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Rises Near 1.2540 After Surging to 1.2575 on ThursdayThe GBP/USD exchange rate is trading closely around the 1.2540 level after experiencing a short-term surge to its highest point in 10 weeks, driven by an unexpected uptick in the UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Thursday. The pair spent the latter part of the trading day navigating through a significantly restricted market due to subdued Thanksgiving holiday activity in the US. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has maintained above 50, indicating that Wednesday's decline was a technical correction rather than the start of a reversal. However, GBP/USD continues to trade near the upper limit of the upward regression channel, and buyers may choose to exercise caution before betting on additional profits in the near future. On the upside, 1.2550 (static level) is considered the first resistance before 1.2600 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level from the July to October downtrend) and 1.2670 (static level from August). In the event of a retreat below 1.2500 (psychological level, upper limit of the upward regression channel), 1.2450 (50-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart, static level) could be viewed as the next support level before 1.2400 (psychological level, midpoint of the upward regression channel). GBP/USD dropped to 1.2450 in Wednesday's US trading session, closing in the negative territory, ending a three-day consecutive uptrend. Improved risk sentiment and optimistic UK PMI data helped the pair regain traction and stabilize above 1.2500 on Thursday. The US Dollar strengthened midweek as US Treasury bond yields recovered following weekly data that showed initial jobless claims dropping to the lowest since early October at 209,000. The UK's autumn statement did not elicit a significant market reaction as investors were already informed about the budget proposal details. Commenting on the potential impact of the planned tax cuts for the British Pound, analysts Ulrich Leuchtmann and Tatha Ghose of Commerzbank noted that "lower taxes and public spending might be welcomed by Labour Party voters due to the impacts on individuals, but I find it hard to believe that forex traders and/or a large portion of voters will buy into the Laffer curve," stating that the tax plans may not be interpreted as a positive factor for GBP in this case. Meanwhile, the S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI in the UK improved to 50.1 in the preliminary estimate for November from 48.7 in October, providing a boost for the British Pound. This reading indicates private sector business activity has expanded beyond the contraction territory. Assessing the survey results, Dr. John Glen, CIPS Director, noted, "November data shows encouraging signs of calmer waters ahead for the UK economy, although there are still signs that we have a short way to go before fully weathering the inflationary storm." Additionally, Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI rose to 46.7 and 50.5, respectively. Market dynamics are expected to ease in the latter part of the day, with trading volumes tapering off on Thanksgiving Day in the US.
by Larissa-Trader
1
GBP/USD Holds Steady as BoE Policy Outlook WeighsThe GBP/USD pair maintains a positive trend for the fourth consecutive day, trading around the 1.2535-1.2540 range in the Asian session, just below the highest level since September 9 touched the previous day. The immediate resistance at 1.2550 is seen against GBP/USD before 1.2600 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level from the July-October downtrend) and 1.2670 (static level from August). On the flip side, the initial support is at 1.2500 (psychological level, static level) before 1.2470, where the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and the upper limit of the upward regression channel intersect. Closing below the latter may open up further correction opportunities towards 1.2400 (psychological level, static level). GBP/USD rose above 1.2500 and reached the highest level since early September, nearly 1.2550 on Tuesday. Comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers on the policy outlook may influence the pair's action in the near future. On Monday evening, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that they must monitor signs of persistent inflation that could prompt a return to rate hikes. Bailey reiterated that this policy will need to be restricted "for some time," noting that it is too early to consider rate cuts. Bailey and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Treasury Committee on Tuesday. If officials continue to try to persuade the market that they do not necessarily have to raise interest rates, the pound may gather strength to resist its major counterparts. In the U.S. trading session, economic data from the U.S. will present existing home sales data for October, which could cause a significant market reaction. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the minutes of the meeting from October 31 to November 1. Given the weak inflation data, which has led the market to begin pricing in the Fed's policy shift next year, announced after that meeting, comments in this publication may be outdated. Meanwhile, the UK's FTSE 100 index opened lower and was last seen down 0.5%. Similarly, U.S. stock index futures turned positive on a quiet Asian trading session. If safe-haven inflows return to the market later in the day, the U.S. dollar may escape selling pressure and limit GBP/USD's upside.
by Gwen_Humuna
1
GBP/USD Rebounds to $1.2500 After Budget AnnouncementGBP/USD closed positively for the third consecutive trading day on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since early September at $1.2560. While experiencing a slight pullback on Wednesday, the pair remains above the $1.2500 mark. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, is set to unveil the autumn budget report in the late session. Hunt is expected to announce significant tax cuts for businesses to stimulate economic growth, raise the national living wage, and increase the income of low-wage workers by around 10%. Assessing the impact of these measures on inflation and inflation expectations is challenging, but recent comments from Bank of England (BoE) officials suggest caution in dismissing additional tightening measures in the future. In the latter half of the day, U.S. economic data will reveal durable goods orders for October and weekly initial jobless claims. If the number of initial jobless claims continues to rise, the US Dollar (USD) may struggle to find demand. Investors will also closely monitor developments on Wall Street ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. In the event that risk aversion prevails after the opening bell, the USD could weaken against its counterparts.
by Larissa-Trader
1
GBP/USD Holds Firm Above 1.2500 Amid BoE Comments GBP/USD saw an increase on Tuesday as the British Pound outperformed following hawkish comments from officials at the Bank of England. The currency pair is holding firm above the 1.2500 level despite the U.S. Dollar's adjustment. The level at 1.2550 (static level) is considered immediate resistance for GBP/USD, preceding 1.2600 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level from the July to October downtrend) and 1.2670 (static level from August). On the flip side, the initial support is at 1.2500 (psychological level, static level) before 1.2470, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, Simple Moving Average (SMA) 20, and the upper limit of the ascending regression channel intersect. Closing below this level may open up opportunities for a deeper correction towards 1.2400 (psychological level, static level). GBP/USD rose above 1.2500, reaching its highest point since early September, near 1.2550 on Tuesday. Comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers on policy outlook may influence the pair in the coming days. On Monday evening, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated they must monitor signs of persistent inflation that could warrant an interest rate hike. Bailey reiterated that such a policy would need to be constrained "for some time" and noted it's too early to contemplate rate cuts. Bailey and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday. If officials continue to convince the market that they don't necessarily need to raise interest rates, the British Pound may gather strength to resist its major counterparts. In U.S. trading sessions, economic data from the United States will reveal the Existing Home Sales figures for October, likely causing notable market reactions. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the meeting minutes from October 31 to November 1. Given the weak inflation data, prompting market speculation about the Fed's policy changes next year, comments in this release may already be outdated. Meanwhile, the UK's FTSE 100 index opened lower, last seen down 0.5%. Similarly, U.S. stock futures turned positive after a quiet Asian trading session. If safe-haven inflows return to the market in the latter half of the day, the U.S. Dollar may escape downward pressure, limiting GBP/USD's upward momentum.
by Larissa-Trader
1