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GBP/USD Resilient Above 1.2800 Amidst Dollar WeaknessGBP/USD saw a slight uptick above 1.2800 in early European trading on Thursday, supported by the prolonged weakness of the US Dollar due to bets on the Fed's dovish stance. US unemployment benefit claims data was released in a relatively quiet market. The currency pair, currently trading just above 1.2700, may find technical buyer interest if it confirms this level as support. In such a case, 1.2750 and 1.2790-1.2800 serve as potential resistance levels. Failure to hold above 1.2700 could prompt support at 1.2660 (50-period SMA), 1.2630 (100-period SMA), and 1.2600 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). GBP/USD, influenced by broad USD selling pressure on Thursday, sought to recover losses, maintaining stability around 1.2700 as the market assessed the latest UK data on Friday.
by Larissa-Trader
GBPJPY: The Japanese Yen will likely be the most interesting The new governor of the BoJ, Kazuo Ueda, has not made drastic changes in monetary policy as expected, causing the Japanese yen to weaken against the USD in 2023. Positive signs appeared in November when the USD/JPY pair fell and bond yields also fell, raising hopes that the BoJ was about to change policy. The BoJ is expected to make an important policy decision next spring, based on the results of salary negotiations. If the BoJ does not change policy as expected, the yen could continue to struggle in the first half of 2024. Although the BoJ may change policy later, this uncertainty will cause the yen to fluctuate widely in the first half of next year. In short, the prospects of the Japanese yen next year depend largely on the BoJ's decision after the salary negotiations. The lack of certainty could create major volatility in the Japanese currency market.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
USD Volatility on Fed Rate Cut SpeculationThe US dollar grapples with challenges in gaining traction globally, impacted by recent indications of cooling inflation in the US. This trend raises expectations of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the coming year. In thin holiday trading, major currencies remain stable, with the yen holding near yearly highs, supported by expectations of the Bank of Japan shifting away from ultra-loose monetary policies. Key Points: Declining US inflation in November fuels expectations of a 2024 Fed rate cut, diminishing USD appeal. BOJ Governor Ueda's comments on rising inflation stir speculation of policy changes, boosting the yen. Global risk sentiment and broader economic trends may influence currency markets in the weeks ahead. Looking Ahead: USD fate depends on upcoming inflation data and Fed rhetoric in the new year. Yen direction hinges on BOJ actions and hints regarding policy normalization. Global risk sentiment will likely impact currency markets in the coming weeks.
by Larissa-Trader
Expectations and Analysis of GBP/USDForecasting GBP/USD, the British Pound against the US Dollar, based on performance on the daily chart below, indicates that it is still moving within an upward channel. Recent developments have been a response to signals from global central banks in their final meetings of 2023. However, the economic weakness in the UK continues to hinder a strong upward move of the British Pound against other currencies. Technically, the bullish side still needs to break through successive resistance levels at 1.2785 and 1.2850. To confirm control and ultimately advance towards the next psychological resistance level at 1.3000. On the other hand, returning to the support level at 1.2580 during the same timeframe will be crucial for the bearish side to gain control of the trend. Limited movements are expected today given the market conditions and the holiday season. Throughout this week, restricted movements are anticipated as investors are reluctant to exit the market during the holiday season, affecting liquidity.
by AdmamTrade
Trade of the week: GBPJPY? Data emanating from Britain and Japan this week could mean that the GBPJPY is the currency to watch this week. Japan's Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to announce its final interest rate decision of the year on Monday. Expectations from the BoJ are a little uncertain, prompted by remarks from Governor Ueda. Among various statements, he noted that the management of monetary policy would become more challenging toward the year's end. However, some officials have tried to step back Ueda’s comments, and most analysts polled by Reuters anticipate that the central bank will maintain its current policy settings. This uncertainty makes the yen a currency to closely monitor this week. Moving to the UK, Wednesday will see the release of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Expectations suggest a cooling of the headline CPI to 4.4% from 4.6%, and a decrease in the core measure to 5.5% year-on-year from 5.7%. One day later, attention returns to Japan for its inflation rate. Forecasts anticipate a decrease in the Core inflation to 2.5% in November, down from 2.9% in October.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBPJPY Long Term Buying Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart GBPJPY HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today GBPJPY analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GBPJPY market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GBPJPY Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexPlanet20
1
GBPJPY: Reuters: The BOJ meeting next week is expected to have nThe latest Reuters poll on the Bank of Japan's outlook includes the following key points: BoJ will end negative interest rates by 2024, 84% of economists said in their quarter-end forecast; 71% in the November poll and 54% in the October poll. 88% of economists think the BoJ will end yield curve control; 12% think the BoJ will adjust YCC again. 28 out of 42 economists say BoJ interest rates will rise to 0.00% or 0.10% by the end of the second quarter of 2024; Two people thought it was 0.25%.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
1
GBP/USD at 1.2550 Amid UK GDP and Fed DecisionGBP/USD exhibits a sideways trend as it braces for a slew of data releases from both the UK and the US, fluctuating around the 1.2550 level during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The currency pair experienced notable volatility in the previous session, influenced by employment data from the UK and inflation figures from the US. Closing below 1.2550 in the 4-hour chart could expose the next support level at 1.2510-1.2500 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest uptrend, psychological level) before 1.2450-1.2440 (50% Fibonacci retracement, 200-period SMA). On the upside, 1.2600 (psychological level, 100-period SMA, 50-period SMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) is considered the first resistance level, followed by 1.2625 (static level) and 1.2700 (psychological level, static level). After rising to 1.2600 in the early European trading session on Tuesday, GBP/USD reversed course and dipped below 1.2550. US inflation data for November could trigger significant moves ahead of policy meetings by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE). Annual wage inflation in the UK, measured by changes in Average Earnings including bonuses, sharply declined to 7.2% for the three months ending October from 8%. Average Earnings excluding bonuses increased by 7.3% in the same period, down from the previous 7.8%. Although the BoE is anticipated to provide policy insights this week, soft wage inflation figures might encourage policymakers expressing concerns about robust wage growth, making it challenging to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Reflecting the negative impact of this data on the British Pound, EUR/GBP has risen to the positive zone near 0.8600. Towards the end of the day, market participants will closely monitor the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US. On a monthly basis, core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food prices, is forecasted to rise by 0.3%. A weaker-than-expected core inflation report could pose challenges for the USD in finding demand and assist GBP/USD in finding support in the latter half of the day. Conversely, results in line with or higher than analyst estimates may lead to further depreciation of this currency pair.
by Larissa-Trader
GBPJPY I Correction completed and more downside Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** GBPJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
"Speculation Mounts on Early Fed Rate Cuts"Investors are increasingly hopeful about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of the upcoming year, despite officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, maintaining that rate cuts are not currently on the table. Some analysts suggest a possible rate cut as early as the first quarter. Recent inflation figures and real-time forecasts indicate a noticeable economic slowdown since summer, deviating from the robust growth seen in the third quarter. Futures contracts reflect a growing belief in a rate cut within the next few months, with a 44% chance of the first cut occurring in March. If these predictions hold true, the impact on the Fed's longer-term strategy of raising interest rates could be significant, according to economists like Diane Swonk from KPMG. The Fed's two-day policy meeting this week is expected to conclude with the central bank maintaining the highest interest rates in 22 years for the third consecutive meeting. Officials will also release updated economic projections, likely indicating a faster-than-expected cooling of inflation. Despite some officials, including Powell, suggesting it's too early for rate hikes, investors believe the Fed's commitment to data-dependency may lead to early rate cuts. Powell's recent comments in Atlanta, stating no plans for rate hikes, resulted in a stock market surge as it echoed his dovish stance.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Sustains Three-Week Rally, Holding Above 1.2550GBP/USD has rebounded to the 1.2550 level after nearing 1.2500 in the latter half of the day following a stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data of 199,000 in November. Despite the recent recovery, the pair remains on track to secure a three-week winning streak. GBP/USD may face immediate support at 1.2550-1.2560 (static level, Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the latest uptrend). Closing below this level in the 4-hour chart could attract technical sellers, opening up the possibility of an extended decline to 1.2500 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2470 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%). On the upside, 1.2600 (psychological level, static level) is considered a temporary resistance level before 1.2640 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart) and 1.2700 (static level, psychological level). GBP/USD closed positively on Thursday but failed to attract additional buyers early on Friday. The last time the pair was seen below 1.2600, with market focus shifting to the US November labor market data. Improved risk sentiment led to a loss in the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, helping GBP/USD record a small daily gain. On Friday, US stock index futures trading was mixed, suggesting investors should exercise caution. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly employment report is expected to show an increase of 180,000 in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) in November. Earlier this week, US employment-related figures indicated loosening conditions in the labor market. A disappointing NFP print below 150,000 could reaffirm the labor market recovery and immediately pressure the USD. On the other hand, a strong NFP index above 200,000 could counter market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy change starting in March and help the USD maintain its position by the end of the week. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a nearly 60% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates to 25 basis points in March.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Holds Below 1.2600, Despite Modest Daily GainsGBP/USD rebounded to the 1.2600 level after hitting a two-week low around 1.2550 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggled to find demand on Thursday amid increasing signs of loosening conditions in the US labor market ahead of Friday's employment report. The 1.2600 level (20-period Simple Moving Average - SMA) is considered immediate resistance for GBP/USD, followed by 1.2650 (static level, 50-period SMA), and 1.2700 (static level). On the flip side, strong support lies at 1.2560, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-period SMA. If GBP/USD drops below this level and utilizes it as resistance, the next downside targets could be 1.2500 (psychological level, static) and 1.2470 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). The interplay between these support and resistance levels will likely shape the near-term movements of GBP/USD as traders monitor key technical and fundamental factors.
by Larissa-Trader