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Gbpjpysignal

GBP/JPY e Analysis & Probability Estimation March 4 2025Key Observations Across Timeframes: 1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis: Short-term (M15, M30): Price is consolidating near 189.200, testing the previous daily low (PDL) for liquidity. A Break of Structure (BOS) occurred, signaling short-term bearish control. The price is hovering at a key demand zone (PWL - 188.500/187.800). If price breaks below 188.800, further downside is likely. Mid-term (H1, H4): The price rejected equilibrium (~189.800 - 190.000), showing weakness. A Change of Character (ChOCH) to the downside suggests a bearish trend continuation. Liquidity below PWL (187.800) could be a target before a potential bounce. Long-term (D1): The price is in a larger downtrend, failing to break above premium zones (~190.500 - 192.000). Liquidity below PWL (~188.000 - 187.500) is uncollected, making it a likely target. The next major support lies in the discount zone (~185.500 - 186.500). 2. Key Liquidity Zones & Supply/Demand Areas: Premium Zone (~190.500 - 192.000): Major resistance; rejection happened here. Equilibrium (~189.800 - 190.000): Price failed to hold above, signaling weakness. Discount Zone (~187.500 - 186.500): Next strong demand area if price continues lower. Previous Daily Low (PDL - 188.800): Price is testing this level for liquidity; a break here could lead to further downside. Previous Weekly Low (PWL - 187.500): Untapped liquidity below, making it a strong target for price movement. Probability-Based Scenarios: 1. Bearish Continuation to 187.800 - 186.500 (Break Below PDL & PWL) Probability: 65% Reasons: Failure to hold above equilibrium (189.800). Bearish BOS & ChOCH confirmations on H1/H4 suggest a move down. Liquidity below 188.000 (PWL) remains uncollected. Strong daily downtrend supports further downside. Bearish Confirmation: If price breaks and holds below 188.800, expect a move toward 187.500 - 186.500. 2. Bullish Reversal from Discount Zone (Bounce from 188.500 - 187.500) Probability: 35% Reasons: Potential liquidity grab at PWL (188.000 - 187.500) before reversing. Demand zone at 187.500 - 186.500 could cause a bullish reaction. If price holds above 188.800, we may see a bounce to 189.800 - 190.000. Bullish Confirmation: If price fails to break below 188.500, a push back toward equilibrium (189.800) is possible. Final Thoughts & Trade Plan: Bearish bias (65% probability) for continuation toward 187.800 - 186.500. Key Confirmation Levels: Below 188.800: Bearish toward 187.500 - 186.500. Above 189.200: Potential bullish recovery toward 189.800 - 190.000. Trade Setup Overview: Bias: Bearish (65% probability) Entry Type: Breakout & Retest 📉 Sell (Short) Trade Setup: 🔴 Entry: Below 188.800 (Confirmed BOS) 🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP1: 188.200 (PWL - Previous Weekly Low) TP2: 187.800 (Liquidity sweep level) TP3: 186.500 (Major discount zone) 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 189.400 (Above minor liquidity) 📊 Risk-to-Reward (R:R): TP1: ~1:2 TP2: ~1:3 TP3: ~1:5 🔹 Confirmation Needed: Strong candle close below 188.800 (Break & retest scenario) No immediate bullish rejection at 188.500 📈 Buy (Long) Trade Setup (Lower Probability - 35%) 🟢 Entry: Above 189.200 (Bullish rejection & BOS) 🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP1: 189.800 (Equilibrium zone) TP2: 190.500 (Supply zone) TP3: 191.500 (Major resistance) 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 188.700 (Below structure low) 📊 Risk-to-Reward (R:R): TP1: ~1:2 TP2: ~1:3 TP3: ~1:5 🔹 Confirmation Needed: Price needs to hold above 189.200 with strong bullish momentum. No immediate rejection from equilibrium (189.800). 🛠️ Execution Tips: 🔄 Wait for a clear breakout & retest before entering. ⚖️ Adjust lot size based on risk tolerance (~1-2% per trade). 🕰️ Monitor price action on the lower timeframes (M15/M30) for entry precision.
Short
by wizzywise1
DeGRAM | GBPJPY retest of dynamic supportGBPJPY is in a descending channel between the trend lines. The price is moving from the upper boundary of the channel, but it has already reached the dynamic support, which previously acted as a rebound point. On the 1W Timeframe, the chart is in the accumulation zone, which is characterized by the fact that volumes have increased and the pair is held in a certain trading zone. Before reaching the lower trend line, a harmonic pattern was formed, the potential of movement of which held under the 50% retracement level. We expect price growth after fixing above the mentioned retracement level. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
5
GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry and short entry. 🏆💸Book Profits, Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The loot's within reach! Wait for the breakout, then grab your share - whether you're a Bullish thief or a Bearish bandit!" Buy entry above 192.500 Sell Entry below 187.000 However, I recommended to place buy stop for bullish side and sell stop for bearish side. Stop Loss 🛑: -Thief SL placed at 189.000 (swing Trade Basis) for Bullish Trade -Thief SL placed at 189.000 (swing Trade Basis) for Bearish Trade Using the 4H period, the recent / swing low or high level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: -Bullish Robbers Primary TP 197.000 / Secondary TP 201.000 (or) Escape Before the Target -Bearish Robbers TP 184.000 (or) Escape Before the Target 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT data, Sentimental Outlook: GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend (there is a higher chance for Bearishness)., driven by several key factors. 🟠Fundamental Analysis Interest Rates: BoE likely cutting to 4-4.5%; BoJ at 0.25-0.5%, supporting GBP/JPY upside mildly. Inflation: UK at 2.5-3%, Japan at 2-2.5%, capping GBP strength, mildly boosting JPY. Growth: UK GDP 1-1.5%, Japan ~1%, both modest, JPY favored in risk-off. Trade/Geopolitics: U.S. tariffs may boost JPY, UK less exposed. Energy: Stable oil prices (~$70) neutral for JPY. 🟤Macroeconomic Factors USD Strength: Pressures GBP/JPY, JPY gains in risk-off. Global Growth: 3% in 2025, U.S./China slowdown favors JPY. UK Risks: BoE easing weakens GBP. Japan Risks: Policy tolerance limits JPY gains. 🔴COT Data Speculators: Net short JPY (~150,000 contracts), fading bearishness. Hedgers: Net long JPY (~100,000), expect strength. Trend: JPY bottoming, potential GBP/JPY decline. 🟣Market Sentiment Retail: 70% short GBP/JPY, contrarian upside risk. Social Media: Bearish GBP/JPY, JPY optimism. Broker Data: 65% long, overcrowded, reversal possible. 🟡Positioning Analysis Speculators: Moderating JPY shorts, bearish GBP/JPY. Retail: Short cluster at 190.00, squeeze risk. Institutions: Eye 184.000 target. 🔵Next Trend Move Technical: Below 50/200 SMA (194.23/193.20), bearish. Short-Term: Down to 185.00-183.00. Medium-Term: Range 175.94-190.00. Triggers: UK data up to 192.00, JPY strength to 180.00. 🟢Overall Summary Outlook GBP/JPY at 189.000 reflects a tug-of-war between a weakening GBP (due to BoE easing and UK growth risks) and a cautiously strengthening JPY (safe-haven flows, modest BoJ tightening). Fundamentals favor a mild JPY edge, supported by macro trends like U.S. tariff impacts and global slowdown risks. COT data hints at a JPY bottoming, while sentiment and positioning suggest overcrowding in shorts, risking a brief squeeze. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
by Thief_Trader
2
GBPJPY jumps above 190.50The GBP/JPY pair climbs to around 190.70 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) gains strength against the Japanese Yen (JPY) following the release of the UK's January Retail Sales data. The Office for National Statistics reported on Friday that UK Retail Sales rose by 1.7% month-on-month in January, compared to a decline of 0.3% in December. This figure exceeded the market's expectation of a 0.3% increase. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales grew by 1.0% in January, compared to a previously revised increase of 2.8% (originally 3.6%), surpassing the forecast of 0.6%. The GBP remains strong in immediate response to the positive UK Retail Sales figures.
Short
by xauusd_rr
GBPJPY AnalysisGBPJPY Analysis and Trade Setup GBP/JPY is currently testing a historically significant resistance level that has repeatedly acted as a barrier to price advancement. Given the strength of this resistance zone, it is reasonable to anticipate a potential rejection or pullback. Historically, such levels often prompt a reversal, particularly after a retest of the structure, which could further confirm the resistance's validity. The likelihood of a rejection at this level is supported by the principles of technical analysis, as repeated tests of a resistance level tend to reinforce its significance. In summary, while the current setup suggests a potential pullback from the resistance level, traders should remain cautious and monitor key technical and fundamental factors,
Short
by sirkamal
9
GBP/JPY "The Guppy" Forex Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the GBP/JPY "The Guppy" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (193.400) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 191.600 (swing Trade) Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 199.000 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: GBP/JPY "The Guppy" Forex Market market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors. 🎆 Fundamental Analysis 1. Economic Growth: The UK's economic growth is expected to slow down due to Brexit uncertainty, while Japan's economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace. 2. Inflation: The UK's inflation rate is expected to remain above the Bank of England's target, while Japan's inflation rate is expected to remain low. 3. Interest Rates: The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates steady, while the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its accommodative monetary policy. 🎆 Macroeconomic Analysis 1. Trade Balance: The UK's trade balance is expected to remain in deficit, while Japan's trade balance is expected to remain in surplus. 2. GDP Growth: The UK's GDP growth rate is expected to slow down to 1.2% in 2023, while Japan's GDP growth rate is expected to remain at 1.1%. 3. Fiscal Policy: The UK's fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary, while Japan's fiscal policy is expected to remain neutral. 🎆 COT Analysis 1. Non-Commercial Traders: Net long 20,019 contracts (increase of 5,011 contracts from last week) 2. Commercial Traders: Net short 15,011 contracts (decrease of 2,011 contracts from last week) 3. Non-Reportable Positions: Net long 8,011 contracts (increase of 1,011 contracts from last week) 🎆 Sentimental Analysis 1. Trader Sentiment: 52% of traders are bullish on GBP/JPY, while 40% are bearish and 8% are neutral. 2. Investor Sentiment: The GBP/JPY sentiment index shows that 48% of investors are bullish, while 32% are bearish. 3. Hedge Fund Sentiment: Hedge funds have increased their long positions in GBP/JPY, with a net long exposure of 15%. 🎆 Institutional Trader Sentiment 1. Goldman Sachs: Net long 12,011 contracts 2. Morgan Stanley: Net long 8,011 contracts 3. JPMorgan Chase: Net long 6,011 contracts 🎆 Hedge Fund Sentiment 1. Bridgewater Associates: Net long 15,011 contracts 2. BlackRock: Net long 10,011 contracts 3. Vanguard: Net long 8,011 contracts 🎆 Retail Trader Sentiment 1. Interactive Brokers: Net long 6,011 contracts 2. TD Ameritrade: Net long 4,011 contracts 3. E*TRADE: Net long 3,011 contracts 🎆 Overall Outlook Based on the analysis, GBP/JPY is expected to move in a bullish trend, with a 55% chance of an uptrend and a 35% chance of a downtrend. The remaining 10% chance is for a neutral trend. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
Long
by Thief_Trader
4
GBP/JPY "The Guppy" Forex Market Heist Plan on Bullish🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the GBP/JPY "The Guppy" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : Traders & Thieves with New Entry A bull trade can be initiated at any price level. However I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level. Goal 🎯: 198.500 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️ Based on the fundamental & macro analysis, I would expecting a bullish outlook for GBP/JPY "The Guppy" Forex Market Fundamental Analysis----- 1. Interest Rate Differential: The Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have different interest rate policies. A higher interest rate differential between the two countries can make GBP/JPY more attractive to investors, potentially driving up the pair. 2. Inflation Rates: UK inflation rates have been relatively high compared to Japan. Higher inflation in the UK can lead to higher interest rates, making GBP/JPY more attractive. 3. Economic Growth: The UK's economic growth has been slower than expected, while Japan's economy has shown signs of improvement. A stronger Japanese economy can lead to a weaker GBP/JPY. 4. Trade Balance: The UK's trade balance has been in deficit, while Japan's trade balance has been in surplus. A worsening trade balance in the UK can lead to a weaker GBP/JPY. Macro Analysis----- 1. Global Risk Appetite: GBP/JPY is considered a risk pair, meaning it performs well when global risk appetite is high. A decrease in global risk appetite can lead to a weaker GBP/JPY. 2. Central Bank Policies: The BoJ's monetary policy has been more dovish than the BoE's. A more dovish BoJ can lead to a weaker JPY, making GBP/JPY more attractive. 3. Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and North Korea, can lead to a safe-haven flow into JPY, weakening GBP/JPY. 4. Commodity Prices: Japan is a major importer of commodities, so higher commodity prices can lead to a weaker JPY, making GBP/JPY more attractive. Current Market Situation----- - The BoE has maintained a hawkish tone, while the BoJ has remained dovish. - UK inflation rates have been relatively high, while Japan's inflation rates have been low. - Global risk appetite has been decreasing due to trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. Bullish Factors----- - Higher interest rate differential between the UK and Japan - Stronger UK inflation rates - Weaker JPY due to the BoJ's dovish monetary policy Market Sentiment: Market Mood: The current market mood is cautiously bullish, with a slight bias towards buying the GBP/JPY pair. Speculative Positioning: According to the Commitment of Traders (CoT) report, large speculators (such as hedge funds and institutions) are net long the GBP/JPY pair, indicating a bullish bias. Market Trends: The GBP/JPY pair is currently trading in a range-bound market, with a slightly bullish trend. News and Events: Recent news and events, such as the UK's economic growth and Japan's economic stimulus, have been supportive of the GBP/JPY pair. Technical Indicators: Technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), are indicating a bullish trend. Disclaimer---Sentiment & Fundamental analysis is subjective and based on publicly available data. It should not be considered as investment advice. Trading forex involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your investment. Always do your own research and consider multiple sources before making a trade. Trading Alert⚠️ : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
Long
by Thief_Trader