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GBP/USD: The weakness of the US dollar fuels the British poundToday GBP/USD continued Friday's rally and hit its highest level in 5 weeks at 1.2250.As investors reassess the possibility of the US Federal Reserve keeping policy interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, the broad weakness of the US dollar helps GBP/USD maintain its advantage. Risk sentiment dominated the market in early Asian trading hours as the market reacted to the news that UBS Group agreed to acquire Credit Suisse Group.More importantly, the Federal Reserve has resumed daily swaps with the Bank of Canada (BoC), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide additional liquidity when needed. The positive impact of these developments on market sentiment is still short-lived.The sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields shows that investors are repricing the Fed's policy outlook.According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday has fallen to less than 50%. The British FTSE 100 index fell more than 1% at the beginning of the session, and U.S. stock index futures fell 0.4% to 0.8%, reflecting a risk-averse atmosphere. Nevertheless, in the current environment, the dollar seems to have lost its attractiveness as a safe harbor.As investors become more and more worried about the deepening of the global financial crisis, they avoid betting on the Fed's active policy tightening, which will lead to a weakening of the dollar, which will lead to a strengthening of GBP/USD. In the trend of GBP/USD, the effectiveness of breaking through the downward channel has been established, and a new upward trend is being re-established. In order to determine the effectiveness of the uptrend channel, GBP/USD will also step back in the short term while maintaining a good upward trend.While GBP/USD maintains its advantage, the effectiveness of the support at the top and bottom conversion position of the 1.220 line below can be determined. Therefore, the current support below is at the 1.220 line, while the initial resistance above is at the 1.227 position, and the strong resistance is at the 1.230 position. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Long
by Short-term-king
2
The pound rebounded as scheduled, can the bulls recover?On Wednesday (March 15), GBP/USD continued to fall by 0.85% to close at USD1.2056.The UBS incident has caused the market to worry about the state of the European banking system, because the impact of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which is a major customer of technology companies in the United States, is accelerating.Credit Suisse's share price plunged by more than 30% at one point, after its largest investor said it could not provide the bank with more financial assistance.The stock's plunge led to a decline in the broader European banking stock index, triggering demand for safe-haven dollars and forcing investors to avoid high-risk currencies such as the British pound.However, the market believes that the eurozone market may be hit first, while the British market is slightly protected, so at this stage, the performance of the pound is slightly stronger than that of the euro.Subsequently, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt announced a fiscal plan. Fiscal measures for this year and next two years will cost 94 billion pounds, demonstrating the British government's determination to boost economic growth and avoid recession.This has helped limit the decline of the pound to a certain extent. On the trend of GBP/USD, it was mentioned in the article yesterday that if the 1.201 position can be supported, it is possible to carry out a short-cycle restorative rebound on this basis.It is currently trading near the level of 1.211.From this point of view, there is still strong support near the 1.201 level below, but the current trend is still volatile and the trend is not clear.The overall volatility range is still limited to between 1.1930-1.22. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Long
by Short-term-king
GBP/USD:The pound was blocked, and the bears reacted strongly?The latest data from the United Kingdom show that the number of people employed in the British labor market has increased by 65,000, higher than the expected 52,000, and the unemployment rate remains at 3.7%.But the pace of wage growth has slowed, which is good news for the Bank of England.Because the central bank is seeking to control inflation, this is another factor to be considered at next week's interest rate meeting.On a global scale, the market turmoil after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has led to huge changes in the market's pricing of the central bank's interest rate outlook in the past few trading days.According to CME's Fedwatch tool, there is now a 25% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.Even the market has begun to digest the expectation that the Fed will turn to interest rate cuts at the end of the year.Under this situation, the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates may be eased, which will be of great help to resolve the British government's debt.In terms of interest spreads, the British pound will not be pulled too wide by other currencies.As a result, the pound may be able to gain some support from it. Due to the rebound of the British pound for four consecutive trading days, it has left the original downward trend channel. However, over time, the market fear caused by the US banking crisis has gradually eased. Today, the dollar index stopped falling and rebounded sharply, suppressing the rise of the British pound and driving the British pound to begin to adjust the market. At present, the British pound has the intention of returning to the downward trend channel.However, if the 1.201 position can be supported, it is possible to carry out a short-term restorative rebound on this basis. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me.
Long
by Short-term-king
13
WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION GBPUSDFor the past couple of days, GBPUSD has been ranging with some wide swings . Anytime price consolidates, we refer back to the Wyckoff's Theory to understand what's happening and where price is likely to head next. After the 3rd hit to support level, the pound finally dropped . We know the purpose of this drop and what happens next. However, the pound has now breached the 1.20 to 1.30 Quarter Points, which gets me thinking, will the pound reach the 1.75 LQP ? I sit on my hands with this one to see how price will play out. Beaucoup Out
Long
by BeaucoupPips
GBPUSD: Trade within this range Currently, the market is still fluctuating within the support range, and overall it remains somewhat weak. However, there has been a significant decline recently, and regardless of the variety, it is almost certain that there will be a rebound after a major drop, with the difference being the size of the rebound. Therefore, the current trading strategy is to go long at low levels and short at high levels. Specific recommendations: Buy in the 180-183 range and take profit at 1.192-1.196. Short above 1.196 and take profit near 1.184.
by triumphing
#GBPUSD - GO LONG AFTER THE FALL? - *SMT**SMT = smart money theory = see relasted tutoprial regarding what smart money is. Sm,art money is how the charts can be manipulated, and how y0ourself can be manipulated into believing a false sense technical analysis. With the price dropping in one day what iyt gained over the course of the week. The price has dropped below sell side liquidity levels, but to remain bullish needs to stay above a CERTAIN BULLISH ORDER BLOCK LEVEL, otherwise we could see the price turn right back around and go down for GBP, but I think the BOE will be quicker to adapt to the FED knowing the consequences now. S I would guesss that it is moving up into the the hourly fvg and then will get rejected above the premium by smart money, amnd that point it dips a little further, as to where y09ou can enter a second time afgter taking profit the first time around 1.22665 Enter again near 1.21420 if possible and continue to ride this up to 1.26090 to be safe. I have two entries both at 1.21420 First one reaches what is said above and you take your fiorst profit there, it could slip back down to the entrance or even further, into a small fair value gap below which I have prepared for on the second entry,. and ther stop losses at 1.21120 & 1.20525 the second run with the deeper stop loss also has a much larger target at 1.26090 ner the top of the bearish order block. the R:R is 6:1 and 5:1 respectively, so if this woprks out t he way I ho [e it doers in the next week or two, 10% can be added top the account if played correctly. I was once the smarrt money student who has become an instructor. Let's Hope my intuitions are correct about thias. With that said if you hit the first take profit but go out on the second sdtop loss, you should still be at a winning ratio. It's about how to grow yojur account. Everyday you won't hit a homerun. But if y0ou hold the bat long enough, the ball will go far. Cheers, Good Luck and Good trading.
by BodiesXWix
Did GBP/NZD hit a sell signal? The GBP/NZD has continued to sink from its recent high of 2.032 and is now well below the 2.000 level that the pair closed below on Tuesday. A major factor determining the movement of this pair is the respective inflation rates data from each country that was released this week. The annual Inflation rate for the United Kingdom rose back to 10.1% in September from 9.9% the month earlier, despite the Bank of England’s consistent rate hikes. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s inflation rate eased slightly in September to 7.2% from 7.2% the previous quarter. While the fall In the NZ inflation rate was practically insignificant, it is at least moving in the direction you would expect after consistent rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Overall, GBP/NZD's outlook looks bearish from a technical perspective. For one, the Aroon Indicator in the 4-hour chart is signaling a sell. The Aroon blue ‘down line’, is currently travelling along at the 100.00% level, indicating that the trend favours the downside. Meanwhile, the Aroon red ‘up line’ is hovering just above the 0.00% area. According to this indicator, the closer a line is to zero the weaker the trend, thus the up line present here indicates a weak upside potential for the GBP/USD. Knowing this, traders might like to look for a break in the minor support area around 1.9730 for the price to continue at 1.96000 for a short-term trade. Further downside targets might include 1.9400 before encountering a solid demand zone. If support is formed in the 1.9400 area, buyers might want to wait for the Aroon Indicator to signal before taking a buy position for a possible retest at 1.9600.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
GBPUSD Double BottomGBPUSD try to create a classical Double Bottom at 1.143xx, Then GU gonna fly to trend line resistance. Target Profit: 1.186xxx DISCLAIMER Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy! This analysis can change at anytime without any update and it is only for the purpose of assisting traders to make independent investments decisions. We are the only one person who is responsible for our physical, mental health, relationships, success, and money in our lives. So taking a trading or investment risk on the markets based on this idea. You deserve the profit and you are responsible for your potential loss. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information discussed in this idea. Here i anticipated by price action, please do not consider investment advice, Because i'm not your official financial advisor. The author of this analysis does not accept liability for any loss or damage. Press like👍 if you enjoy + comment your opinion about the market or your thoughts, below this analysis.
Long
by mahfuzazim_TA
2
🟢GBPUSD bullish plan for the day🟢GBPUSD created this structure on 15min. Daily bias has bullish context now after creation of bullish candles and a logical zone to go higher and mitigate. Now, that doesn't need to happen and we are overall bearish for GU, however it's possible to find an entry IF lower timeframes confirm the zone on 15min. 📉 Text marks: 🔹 IL = impulse leg. Inside of IL we can usually see inside structure, which is secondary in nature, like a market noise, unless you trade it on LTF, as it’s own IL. 🔹 ph, pl = protected high or low, which holds current structural impulse. 🔹 bos = break of structure . Based on candle body close below/above previous structural impulse. 🔹 rsz, rdz = refined supply and demand zones. Specific areas to look for LTF confirmations. They are manipulative up-moves before real down moves, or vice versa. Strong hands (the Composite Man, as Wyckoff called it) often come back to such zones to close their manipulative orders at breakeven, before pushing prices further. If body closes outside of the zone, in most cases it will mean the cancellation of the setup. 🔹 if ltf confirms = entry only if there's a shift of structure on lower TF inside of rsz or rdz, or any other type of backtested and approved confirmation. 🔹 liq target = liquidity target: next profit taking levels for strong hands, our main targets based on current price action. ☝️Disclaimer: ALL ideas here are for EDUCATIONAL and MARKETING purposes only, not a financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. I share my view on the market and search for like-minded traders. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as trading in a simulated environment. 👉I believe that "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. In reality, a trader is right only when he executes the system and follows his rules, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live, then refine until perfection. 🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀 💬Send your comments and questions below, share your ideas and charts, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
Long
by Yelli_trades
12
The GBP in the reign of King Charles The death of Queen Elizabeth II on Sept. 8 beaconed a new era for the UK, coming on the heels of Elizabeth Truss taking office as prime minister and heralding the proclamation of King Charles as the new monarch. These changes could be overwhelming for a country that has known only one monarch for 70 years. Even more daunting is that these changes happened amid economic uncertainties, the energy problems affecting Europe and before full recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been truly achieved. The British pound was modestly lower compared with other major currencies a day after the Queen's passing. However, the sterling had been relatively week even after the Truss was named prime minister. On Sept. 7, it dropped to a 37-year low of $1.1469. However, the pound has found some buyers since the seventh, bouncing from this low and climbing back to its last consolidation zone just above 1.7000. This is perhaps an odd bout of bullishness in the lead up to the release of the UK’s August inflation data due on Wednesday. Days before the Queen's death, Goldman Sachs warned that the UK could fall into recession in the fourth quarter of 2022, echoing earlier forecasts from Bank of England. Considering these bearish sentiments, all eyes are on how Truss and the new King will navigate the country of four nations through these murky economic waters. Long lived the queen Queen Elizabeth was 96 years old when she died. She was the UK's longest-reigning monarch and lived through the aftermath of WWII, the winding down of Britain’s vast empire, the 2016 Brexit vote and a global pandemic, among other major events. Following her death, her eldest son Charles takes the throne and the crown amid ongoing criticisms that the monarchy is outdated and absorbing public finances, CNBC reported. Considering the country's current financial situation, it is not too far off to assume that these disapprovals will only intensify. King Charles is already one of the richest people in the world. Being the monarch, he will also be responsible to the Crown Estate, which comprises 15.6 billion pounds ($18.25 billion) of property, according to Financial Times senior business writer, Andrew Hill. While the Royal Family may not have a direct hand at UK's financial policies, it falls on the new King the responsibility to rally public sentiment, especially during a period of crisis. Andrew Roberts, a historian and professor at King's College London, was cited by CNBC as saying that the new monarch intends to "slim down the Royal Family" to show solidarity with the rest of the country during a "massive cost-of-living crisis." Trusting Liz Truss Amid the troubling times in the UK, perhaps harder work is demanded more from new Prime Minister Truss than any other person in the country. In her last public engagement, the Queen met with Truss two days before her death to ask the latter to form a new government. Truss immediately jumped into action, unveiling a 40 billion-pound energy support package for homes and businesses in the UK amid soaring electricity and gas prices, exacerbated by the reduction of supply from Russia after it faced sanctions over its military action against Ukraine. The plan includes a 2,500 pound cap on household energy bills for 2023. Truss took office also after the annual inflation rate in the UK reached 10.1% in July, marking a record high since February 1982 and a peak among G-7 nations. Her election victory also comes on the back on the biggest rate hike in the country in 27 years, which is also expected to further grow once the Bank of England resumes its monetary meeting following a period of mourning for the Queen. Earlier unveiled economic plans for the Truss government also includes an emergency budget targeted at reversing the recent increase in national insurance contributions, as well as the removal of the corporation tax hike scheduled for April 2023.
by BlackBull_Markets
UK electing new leader; how will this affect the GBP? As the UK will announce a new Prime Minister on September 5th, we might expect heightened volatility in the GBP in the days before and after the election result. Moreover, the new policymaker has the potential to change the long-term trend of the pound, with the potential reforms conducted impacting the UK economy. Only a few days remain until the new prime minister is appointed, so the current polls are indicative of the election's results projections, especially if the difference is significant. Liz Truss is ahead of Rishi Sunak, with the recent polls placing Truss 30 points ahead of Sunak. If nothing radical happens in the next several days, Liz Truss will be a prime minister, with odds of 91%, according to The Telegraph. What are the implications for GBP? Liz Truss stands out by having an agenda including popular policies, such as lowering taxes. On the contrary, Rishi Sunak is focused on tight fiscal policies, including raising corporate taxes. In an already high-inflation environment, low taxes could push consumer prices even higher. The Bank of England is likely to step in and raise the interest rate in response, potentially supporting the GBP. Therefore, if Liz Truss takes control of the UK government, the GBP may strengthen. The bearish sentiment for GBP may occur if Rishi Sunak wins. Technical view on GBP The GBP bulls may want to look at GBP/JPY, as the yen has been weak across the board in 2022. The pair is in a long-term uptrend, as the prices stay above 200-day MA. Since the beginning of August, GBPJPY has been consolidating under 50 and 100-day MAs, forming a triangle. The breakout above the upper border and MAs around 163.0 may end the long-term correction and send prices to the 168.0 resistance. Alternatively, GBP/USD could be an appropriate pair to go short if the pound acts weak. As seen above, the market is approaching Covid-19 lows near 1.14, with local resistances at 1.18 and 1.22.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBPAUD BULLISH OUTLOOKAustralian dollar fell after building approval data came at -17%, while only -5% was expected. GBPAUD had broke the resistance of the falling wedge pattern. RSI is above 50 and MACD histogram is above 0 line, plus the instrument is above both its 20 and its 50 MA, which is a bullish scenario. If this scenario continues, we might see increase of the instrument's price to 1.715, the alternative scenario is the price to return to the falling wedge support at 1.687 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Long
by legacyFXofficial