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GBPUSD has a downward trendGBP/USD has been on a bullish tear in November, rising nearly 4.5% since the beginning of the month. After Tuesday's gains, the pair has reached its best level since late August, but has been unable to reclaim the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October slump (1.2720). If this ceiling holds, the upside momentum could run out of steam, paving the way for a drop towards 1.2590, followed by 1.2460. In the event of a clear break above 1.2720, sentiment on sterling is likely to improve, unleashing animal spirits that could propel a potential upward move towards 1.2850. On further strength, buying interest could accelerate, opening the door to a climb toward the 1.3000 handle. Although the bullish case for GBP/USD is strong, it is important to exercise caution as the pair is about to enter overbought territory
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by TinaTradingGold
GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2600 Amid Thin Trading ConditionsGBP/USD is trading near the 1.2600 level, sustaining its recovery post the mixed U.S. PMI data on Black Friday. The pair is strengthened by a weaker U.S. Dollar and robust UK PMI data released on Thursday. Thin trading conditions may amplify GBP/USD price action. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart comfortably stays above 50 on Friday, and GBP/USD continues to trade above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting a short-term uptrend. The level at 1.2550 (static level) is marked as a pivot point. After confirming this level as support, GBP/USD could target 1.2600 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend from July to October) and 1.2670 (static level from August). On the flip side, 1.2525 (upper limit of the ascending regression channel) may be considered the first support level, followed by 1.2500 (psychological level) and 1.2450 (static level).
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Rises Near 1.2540 After Surging to 1.2575 on ThursdayThe GBP/USD exchange rate is trading closely around the 1.2540 level after experiencing a short-term surge to its highest point in 10 weeks, driven by an unexpected uptick in the UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Thursday. The pair spent the latter part of the trading day navigating through a significantly restricted market due to subdued Thanksgiving holiday activity in the US. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has maintained above 50, indicating that Wednesday's decline was a technical correction rather than the start of a reversal. However, GBP/USD continues to trade near the upper limit of the upward regression channel, and buyers may choose to exercise caution before betting on additional profits in the near future. On the upside, 1.2550 (static level) is considered the first resistance before 1.2600 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level from the July to October downtrend) and 1.2670 (static level from August). In the event of a retreat below 1.2500 (psychological level, upper limit of the upward regression channel), 1.2450 (50-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart, static level) could be viewed as the next support level before 1.2400 (psychological level, midpoint of the upward regression channel). GBP/USD dropped to 1.2450 in Wednesday's US trading session, closing in the negative territory, ending a three-day consecutive uptrend. Improved risk sentiment and optimistic UK PMI data helped the pair regain traction and stabilize above 1.2500 on Thursday. The US Dollar strengthened midweek as US Treasury bond yields recovered following weekly data that showed initial jobless claims dropping to the lowest since early October at 209,000. The UK's autumn statement did not elicit a significant market reaction as investors were already informed about the budget proposal details. Commenting on the potential impact of the planned tax cuts for the British Pound, analysts Ulrich Leuchtmann and Tatha Ghose of Commerzbank noted that "lower taxes and public spending might be welcomed by Labour Party voters due to the impacts on individuals, but I find it hard to believe that forex traders and/or a large portion of voters will buy into the Laffer curve," stating that the tax plans may not be interpreted as a positive factor for GBP in this case. Meanwhile, the S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI in the UK improved to 50.1 in the preliminary estimate for November from 48.7 in October, providing a boost for the British Pound. This reading indicates private sector business activity has expanded beyond the contraction territory. Assessing the survey results, Dr. John Glen, CIPS Director, noted, "November data shows encouraging signs of calmer waters ahead for the UK economy, although there are still signs that we have a short way to go before fully weathering the inflationary storm." Additionally, Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI rose to 46.7 and 50.5, respectively. Market dynamics are expected to ease in the latter part of the day, with trading volumes tapering off on Thanksgiving Day in the US.
by Larissa-Trader
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GBP/USD Rebounds to $1.2500 After Budget AnnouncementGBP/USD closed positively for the third consecutive trading day on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since early September at $1.2560. While experiencing a slight pullback on Wednesday, the pair remains above the $1.2500 mark. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, is set to unveil the autumn budget report in the late session. Hunt is expected to announce significant tax cuts for businesses to stimulate economic growth, raise the national living wage, and increase the income of low-wage workers by around 10%. Assessing the impact of these measures on inflation and inflation expectations is challenging, but recent comments from Bank of England (BoE) officials suggest caution in dismissing additional tightening measures in the future. In the latter half of the day, U.S. economic data will reveal durable goods orders for October and weekly initial jobless claims. If the number of initial jobless claims continues to rise, the US Dollar (USD) may struggle to find demand. Investors will also closely monitor developments on Wall Street ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. In the event that risk aversion prevails after the opening bell, the USD could weaken against its counterparts.
by Larissa-Trader
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GBP/USD Holds Firm Above 1.2500 Amid BoE Comments GBP/USD saw an increase on Tuesday as the British Pound outperformed following hawkish comments from officials at the Bank of England. The currency pair is holding firm above the 1.2500 level despite the U.S. Dollar's adjustment. The level at 1.2550 (static level) is considered immediate resistance for GBP/USD, preceding 1.2600 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level from the July to October downtrend) and 1.2670 (static level from August). On the flip side, the initial support is at 1.2500 (psychological level, static level) before 1.2470, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, Simple Moving Average (SMA) 20, and the upper limit of the ascending regression channel intersect. Closing below this level may open up opportunities for a deeper correction towards 1.2400 (psychological level, static level). GBP/USD rose above 1.2500, reaching its highest point since early September, near 1.2550 on Tuesday. Comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers on policy outlook may influence the pair in the coming days. On Monday evening, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated they must monitor signs of persistent inflation that could warrant an interest rate hike. Bailey reiterated that such a policy would need to be constrained "for some time" and noted it's too early to contemplate rate cuts. Bailey and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday. If officials continue to convince the market that they don't necessarily need to raise interest rates, the British Pound may gather strength to resist its major counterparts. In U.S. trading sessions, economic data from the United States will reveal the Existing Home Sales figures for October, likely causing notable market reactions. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the meeting minutes from October 31 to November 1. Given the weak inflation data, prompting market speculation about the Fed's policy changes next year, comments in this release may already be outdated. Meanwhile, the UK's FTSE 100 index opened lower, last seen down 0.5%. Similarly, U.S. stock futures turned positive after a quiet Asian trading session. If safe-haven inflows return to the market in the latter half of the day, the U.S. Dollar may escape downward pressure, limiting GBP/USD's upward momentum.
by Larissa-Trader
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GBP/USD Surges Amid Weakening USDThe GBP/USD pair garnered buying interest during the Asian trading session on Monday, reaching a three-day high around the 1.2470 region. Despite this, the spot price remains below the key resistance of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the psychological level of 1.2500 and the two-month high touched last week. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to register any meaningful recovery and remains near its lowest level since September 1, serving as a primary support factor for the GBP/USD pair. Reports on US CPI and PPI released last week indicated that the inflation nightmare has finally subsided. This allows the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its stance in the December meeting, exerting downward pressure on the USD. Furthermore, markets are assessing the possibility of the Fed starting interest rate cuts in early 2024 and designing a soft landing for the economy. This has pushed the yield on the 10-year US government bond to its lowest in two months at 4.379% on Friday. Additionally, the overall positive trend in the Asian stock markets weakens the safe-haven appeal of the greenback, further supporting the GBP/USD pair. However, markets have set expectations for the Bank of England (BoE) to commence interest rate cuts from their 15-year highs amid looming economic recession risks. Betting odds have been reaffirmed by weaker UK retail sales figures, adding to a series of negative information from the previous week and aligning with the gloomy prospects of the UK economy. This may impede any further upward movement for the GBP/USD pair. Even from a technical standpoint, last week's rejection near the 1.2500 level or the 100-day SMA barrier suggests caution, prompting traders to wait for a strong buying surge before betting on new price hikes. In the absence of any relevant economic information from the UK or the US, USD price dynamics will continue to play a crucial role in influencing the GBP/USD pair, allowing traders to seize short-term opportunities.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Strengthens Above 1.2400 Amid Dollar Challenges"The GBP/USD pair consolidates its overnight slide from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around the psychological level of 1.2500, or the two-month high, trading in a narrow range in Thursday's Asian session. Meanwhile, the spot price attempts to hold above the significant 1.2400 mark, contingent on the price dynamics of the U.S. Dollar (USD). The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), tracking the greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on the modest recovery from its lowest since September 1, amid the Federal Reserve's dovish expectations. These bets were reassessed after Tuesday's U.S. CPI report, indicating a milder-than-expected decline in consumer inflation, suggesting a cooling economy. Furthermore, markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of the Fed starting interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024, driving down U.S. Treasury bond yields and acting as a hurdle for the greenback. Additionally, the prevailing risk-acceptance environment is seen weakening the safe-haven status, providing some support for the GBP/USD pair. However, the upward trend is constrained as more anticipate the Bank of England (BoE) initiating interest rate cuts soon, reinforced by a slight drop in UK consumer inflation on Wednesday. In fact, the UK's monthly CPI remained unchanged, and the annual rate plummeted sharply from 6.7% to 4.6% in October – hitting a two-year low. Moreover, the core CPI also decreased from 6.1% in September to 5.7%. The mixed fundamental backdrop ensures caution among risk-seeking traders, waiting for clear short-term direction, especially with no significant macroeconomic data from the UK on Thursday. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic calendar includes regular weekly jobless claims, the Fed Philly Manufacturing Index, and industrial production figures. This, along with U.S. bond yields and broader risk sentiment, may influence USD price dynamics and allow traders to seize short-term opportunities around the GBP/USD pair.
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD Maintains Uptrend Above 1.2250 GBP/USD saw an increase from the 20-day SMA to 1.2280 on Monday and is consolidating around 1.2275 in the early Asian trading session, supported by the ongoing weakness of the US Dollar. Attention is shifting towards employment data in the UK and crucial US CPI figures on Tuesday. The currency pair reversed its direction after testing the 1.2200 level, with an upward trending line, the 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart aligning, emphasizing the significance of the support level and the sellers' hesitation. On the upside, GBP/USD faces immediate support at 1.2260 (SMA50) followed by 1.2300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.2340 (static level). Support levels are set at 1.2200, 1.2140 (static), and 1.2100 (psychological level). What are your thoughts on this currency pair?
by Larissa-Trader
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GBP/USD Surpasses 1.2200 Level After UK GDPGBP/USD extends its slide below the 1.2200 level in early US trading. UK GDP data reveals a better-than-expected 0.6% year-on-year growth in the third quarter. However, these figures fail to propel the currency pair as investors await next week's key data for clearer direction. The ascending trendline, the Fibonacci retracement level of the latest downtrend, the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, and the 200-period SMA collectively form a robust support level at 1.2200. If GBP/USD drops below this level and confirms it as resistance, the next downside targets could be set at 1,2140 (static level) and 1,2100 (static level). On the upside, 1,2250 (SMA 50) is considered a dynamic resistance level ahead of 1,2275 (SMA 20) and 1,2300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).
by Larissa-Trader
GBP/USD commentary: Will the British pound slide ?Bank of England (BoE) Andrew Bailey reiterated BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill's view that inflation is expected to fall sharply, driving the message of "higher interest rates for longer" The focus of the day will be on statements from Fed officials. Some members still maintain a hawkish stance but the market will focus on Chairman Powell. Other Fed officials will provide investors with an overall picture of the Fed's vision. Weak Chinese data has made sterling weaker and will be the key component to watch going forward. GBP/USD has fallen to the 50-day MA (yellow) since the formation of the long upper wick candle, and could be heading towards the psychological level of 1.2200. The medium-term trend leans more towards the downside if market conditions are relatively stable.
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by MrTrongVo
Turmoil in US stock indexes will lead to declines.The focus is on the impending publication of the UK's third quarter GDP data, which is expected to influence the Bank of England's (BOE) monetary policy in December. Prime Minister Swati Dhingra is considering the possibility of cutting interest rates if growth numbers do not meet expectations. UK economic activity was weighed down in the third quarter by factors including a fall in consumer spending, a slump in the services PMI, weak property demand and a decline in employment. This situation has kept the GBP/USD pair stable around 1.2300 despite the drop in US Treasury yields after three consecutive days of negative closes. On the same day, market attention also turned to potential USD influencers. These include new jobless claims data released weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor and the tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech to the IMF board. Powell's dovish tone could have a significant impact on the USD, leading to a weaker USD and supporting a GBP/USD recovery. In addition to these trends, the crypto market trends at the end of the year are bullish. This trend is reinforced by a sharp decline in his VIX index (HM:VIX), indicating rising risk sentiment as the market awaits his Fed's expected monetary policy decisions. . On Wednesday, November 8, 2023, GBP/USD recorded its third consecutive negative closing price. The pair is stable near 1.2300, a level that could attract technical buyers if confirmed as support. Despite downward pressure on the USD from falling US bond yields, market caution is preventing a full recovery in GBP/USD.
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by AstronautPioneer
Japanese yen pound is on a downward The Japanese yen pound is on a downward trend. The above decision shows that rising global bond yields and sustained high inflation are making it more difficult for the Bank of Japan to maintain its yield curve control policy. As the outlook for the economy and prices remains extremely uncertain, the Bank of Japan will continue to promote accommodative monetary policy. The agency previously updated its inflation forecast for fiscal 2023 and 2024 to 2.8%, the third consecutive period above the central bank's 2% target. Japan adjusts monetary policy, yen depreciates sharply – Photo 1. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: ``Although the situation remains extremely unstable, we have judged that it is appropriate to implement a more flexible yield curve control policy regarding interest rates.Long-term interest rates will adapt to future changes. can be set up in financial markets. Following the decision, the yen plunged against the US dollar as traders focused on the Bank of Japan's commitment to maintain economic stimulus and forecast that inflation would fall below 2% in 2025.
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by AstronautPioneer
The US dollar has fallen and has continued to decline since lastThe dollar fell slightly in early European trading on Monday, extending last week's losses to a six-week low after the Federal Reserve became less hawkish. At 03:20 ET (8:20 p.m. Japan time), the dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of six other currencies, fell more than 1% last week, the biggest decline since the middle of last year. It fell 0.1% to 104.782. . The dollar has fallen since last week's Federal Reserve policy meeting, when the central bank issued dovish signals about further interest rate hikes. That trend was reinforced by Friday's official jobs report, which showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew less than expected in October. This data suggests that the U.S. labor market is cooling. This was the main reason the Fed took a hawkish stance this year. Federal funds futures suggest there is about an 85% chance that the Fed will complete the rate hike cycle and an 80% chance that the rate hike cycle will begin in June. At least nine Fed speakers are scheduled this week, including two appearances by Chairman Jerome Powell, with the second session on Thursday including a question-and-answer session. EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0743, pushing the euro up to levels last seen in September, driven by a weaker dollar rather than stronger regional economies. Which area? German data factory orders rose 0.2% in September, stronger than the expected 1.0% decline, but still a significant decline from August's revised 1.9% increase. Moreover, German housing construction suffered another wave of layoffs in October, according to a study published Monday by the Ifo Economic Research Institute. "The situation is getting worse as more projects fail due to rising interest rates and construction prices," said Klaus Wohlrabe, head of research at Ifo. GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.2384, extending last week's strong gains ahead of the UK's fourth-quarter GDP figures due later this week. .
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by AstronautPioneer
GBPUSD 4H :Still show bearish tendency GBPUSD New forecast The pound sterling pair against the dollar is trading positively, surpassing the 1.2110 level and settling above it, but we notice that the price is showing clear saturation in buying now, which supports the chances of returning to the decline and resuming the negative scenario suggested in our recent reports, whose next target is at 1.2062, and by breaking it, it will reach 1.2016 , to confirm the bearish trend should stable under 1.2106 and then will drop . The 50 moving average is putting negative pressure on the price to support the continuation of the expected downward trend, keeping in mind that breaching 1.2156 will stop the proposed decline and push the price to achieve more gains in the immediate term. so our target will be activate when the price can stability under 1.2106. The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 1.2156 and support line 1.2062. Additionally ,Today News will affect the market . support line : 1.2106 , 1.2062 resistance line : 1.2155 , 1.2192 Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
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by Arazmajeed
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GBPUSD 4H : Under sell pressure GBPUSD New forecast The pound sterling pair against the dollar shows more bearish tendency to exceed the 1.2106 barrier, reinforcing expectations of a continuation of the bearish trend during the coming period, and the way is open to achieving our expected negative target at 1.2062, noting that breaking it will extend the bearish wave to reach the 1.2016 areas in the near term. The moving average 50 constitutes negative pressure that supports the continuation of the proposed bearish wave, which will remain in place provided it remains below 1.2122, as breaching this level represents a positive factor that will lead the price to recover again. The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 1.2122 and support line 1.2062. Additionally ,Today News will affect the market . support line : 1.2062 , 1.2016 resistance line : 1.2106 , 1.2122 Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
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by Arazmajeed
GBP/USD Hits Three-Week Low Below 1.2100"GBP/USD extends this week's decline from near 1.2300, touching a three-week low in Asian trading on Thursday, pressured by a stronger US dollar. The pair weakens further below the key 1.2100 level and faces selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart drops below 50, and the latest 4-hour candles close below the 100-period and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), indicating a downtrend. The level at 1.2100 (a psychological threshold) is considered the main support. If buyers fail to defend this level, further losses towards 1.2050 (the recent low) could be witnessed. To attract technical buyers, GBP/USD needs to surpass the resistance zone of 1.2190-1.2200, where the 100-period SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level converge. In this scenario, 1.2250 (the 200-period SMA) and 1.2300 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level) could be seen as the next resistance levels. After a sharp decline on Tuesday, GBP/USD rallied back to 1.2200 on Wednesday. However, market caution prevented a sustained recovery. US data released on Tuesday revealed that private sector business activity expanded slightly faster in early October compared to September, with the S&P's global composite PMI improving from 50.2 to 51. While US Treasury bond yields continued to decline, the US dollar benefited from the optimistic PMI data, putting pressure on GBP/USD. In early European trading on Wednesday, US stock index futures traded negatively, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note maintained a modest daily increase of around 4.85%, supporting the US dollar. In the latter part of the day, the US New Home Sales data for September will be considered for new momentum. Some policymakers at the Federal Reserve have expressed concerns about the negative impact of high-interest rates on the housing market. Therefore, a significant decline in this data could immediately harm the US dollar. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its initial estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.
by Gwen_Humuna
GBPJPY SHORTWith the war and tensions rising we may see strength entering into safe havens such as JPY. I am looking for GJ to take the previous three day high liquidity that leads into a draw on liquidity in the form of equal highs that is in confluence with a bearish daily orderblock mean threshold. moving internal to external - my targets are old previous lows noted by the target markers. Lets see how she plays out. I will be taking a short in the red zone once a MSS forms and my stops will be a bit above that mean threshold mark. Trade safe
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by MarketWarriorFX
GBP/USD Approaches 1.2270 Ahead of PMI DataGBP/USD continues its upward momentum since Thursday, trading above the 1.2270 level in the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair receives support from the US Dollar (USD) adjustment, coupled with improved risk sentiment. Although GBP/USD started higher after testing the 1.2100 level, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains below 50, indicating the downward trend persists. If the pair closes below 1.2100 in the 4-hour timeframe, sellers might take action. In this scenario, the 1.2050 level (the recent low) could be the next target before 1.2000 (psychological level). On the upside, the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) forms a dynamic resistance at 1.2150, preceding 1.2180 (SMA 100) and 1.2200 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downtrend). Feel free to let me know if you need further assistance or if there's anything specific you'd like to add!
by Gwen_Humuna
2
GBP/USD Dips, Awaits UK CPI DataGBP/USD faced consecutive losses, trading around 1.2160 in Asian markets on Wednesday. Positive US economic data applied pressure. The pair retreated after reaching 1.2200, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) confirming significant resistance. The 4-hour chart's Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 40, indicating accumulating bearish momentum. Immediate support lies at 1.2130 (static level). Closing below it in the 4-hour timeframe could bring further selling pressure, possibly testing temporary support at 1,2100 (static, psychological level) before targeting 1,2050, the recent downtrend's endpoint. If GBP/USD rises above 1,2200 and confirms it as support, it could aim higher towards 1,2250 (static) and 1,2300 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level). The pair reversed its trend after breaching 1,2200 on Monday, dropping to the 1.2150 region on Tuesday. Short-term technical outlook indicates bearish momentum and potential additional losses if the 1,2130 support fails. US Retail Sales data for September is on the economic horizon, with a negative surprise possibly impacting the USD. However, GBP/USD might stand firm unless a significant, positive market sentiment change occurs. Stay tuned for updates on this evolving situation.
by Gwen_Humuna
1