GBPTRY
GBPTRY: Short opportunity within a Descending Triangle.The pair is comming off a rejection on the Lower High trend line of the 1M Descending Triangle (RSI = 60.943, MACD = 0.510, Highs/Lows = 0.000). Based on the previous Lower High made and the RSI it traded, we are expecting a stronger decline towards the previous low. Our sell Target Zone is 6.87000 - 7.00000.
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GBPTRY LONG TERM BIASOver this year expecting a possible strength shift in GBP. The TRY took a massive hit in the last COUP causing a huge spike in the GBPTRY exchange rate. The long term political instability is likely to continue as it's not the first time this has happened.
Exchange rate likely to reach levels seens during that time.
GBPTRY: Triangle sequence showing sell towards 6.5100.The pair has been trading on a strong 1W downtrend (Highs/Lows = -0.4121, B/BP = -0.5351) that recently appears to be slowing down. This may be an indication of a support on the 1W level (6.2070 - 6.5610). However a sequence of repetitive Triangle patterns illustrates that at least a -3.54% decline is expected to follow the completion of the most recent Triangle. This puts our short TP at 6.5100.
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CARRY TRADE CYCLES Carry Trade is the one of the most stylish trading system.Example on 1 years :
UK interest rates = 0,74
Turkey interest rates = 23
If i lend money with GBP and if i invest in Turkey 2Y bonds my real income is :
23 - 0,74 = 22,26 (%) (yearly)
Because of i invested with hot money , Turkish lira will get high and i can buy more Pounds if i want to get interest yield again. If im a good trader or a investment bank , my risk is so so low . Otherwise i can buy a lot of pounds with strong Turkish Lira and get high interest rate when i sell my Turkish lira, Turkish lira gets cheap and this time i can get a lot of Turkish lira again. This cycle is so profitable and suitable for community trading psychology. So carry traders transform market makers and every movements have affect for market making and it is more profitable and secure. But for an English invester, if Turkish economy get worse, even Turkish lira getting cheap and interests are not incresing or devaluations like Turkish lira got a few days ago or interests rates in dangerous places (%23 - %25 means %100 ROE in 4 years) everything getting more worse with double affect, fiat and interest rates opposite correlation lost and everything getting so much risky.
This is an example on historical data. I choosed Pound because UK's interest rates are more lower than USA.This idea will show why last year :GBPTRY drops a lot and this year is different. Let's see Turkish Lira's different between market conditions conveinent for Carry Trading or opposite.Best regards.
Consolidation before further uptrend. Buy on dips. Long.GBPTRY is possibly on a recurring pattern sequence as seen on the chart, on the broader spectrum of a 1W, 1M Channel Up (RSI > 65.523 on both, even overbought on 1M). Our strategy is to buy every dip within the 4H Rectangle (ADX = 18.434, ATR = 0.0717) in anticipation of the next Channel Up. TP = 6.6467.