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Gbpusd-trading

GBP/USD – spike in Asia goes unexplainedCable spiked to 1.4660 levels in Asia but the move lacked any clear fundamental trigger. Early explanations were that latest Brexit polls showed a minor lead for ‘remain’ vote. However, that alone is unlikely to have resulted in a blast higher. Consequently, we are forced to assume that the spike may have been due to a ‘fat finger’ in the market. The bird now hovers around 1.45 handle. The data docket in UK is thin and Cable thus remains at the mercy of Brexit talk. Note that – Brexit referendum is not binding on the parliament! Outlook Retreat from Asian session high of 1.4660 to 1.45 levels marks failure to sustain above rising trend line (black). This if followed by a break below Asian session low of 1.4433 could signal a drop to daily 100-MA level of 1.4345. On the higher side, move above 1.45145 (Mar 18 high) may attract bids, although caution is advised given the thin liquidity.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – hovering around confluence of Fibo levelsCable is currently hovering around confluence of Fibo levels – 1.4413 (38.2% of 1.3835-1.4770) and 1.4406 (50% of 1.4041 – 1.4770). Support – 1.4413-1.4406, 1.4375, 1.4330 (23.6% of 1.5930-1.3835) Resistance – 1.4443, 1.4492, 1.4514-1.4549 Rebound from confluence of Fibo levels or a possible dip to support at 1.4375 followed by a move back above Fibo levels would signal corrective rally ahead of the weekend, thus exposing hurdle at 1.4476-1.4492. However, bulls need to watch out for a failure to take out 1.4443 levels. On the other hand, failure to sustain above 1.4413-1.4406 followed by a break below 1.4375 would signal extension of this week’s down move to 1.4330 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD outlook – Rebounds from 50-DMA, eyes trend line resistanResistance – 1.4485, 1.4518, 1.4549 Support – 1.4413-1.4407, 1.4339, 1.43 Cable’s rebound from daily 50-MA level of 1.4407 in Asia and a convincing move above 1.4413 (38.2% of 1.3835-1.4770) indicates the pair could test supply around 1.4485 (rising trend line drawn from Apr low-May low). A break higher would expose 1.4549 (23.6% of 1.3835-1.4770). On the other hand, a failure to take out/sustain above 1.4442 followed by a break below daily 50-MA of 1.4407 could yield 1.4338 (daily 100-MA). Pair remains the mercy of Brexit polls. Volatility is likely to remain high and the UK construction PMI figure is likely to be ignored. An improvement in the UK manufacturing PMI reported yesterday failed to lend support to the pair.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD outlook - correction possible before further sell-offPair turned lower from around point D of Cypher formation. As per Cypher rules, the pair dropped 38.2% of CD. Here I plotted retracement from 1.3835 (C) to 1.4770 (latest high) The 38.2% retracement comes at 1.4413. Today's low stands at 1.4403. As per Cypher .. break below 38.2% could yield drop to 61.8% level at 1.4192. However, hourly chart shows a possible bullish price RSI divergence. Plus, a five wave structure may have been completed at the daily low of 1.4405, thus A-B-C pattern could unfold and take the pair higher to 1.4480-1.45 levels. Note - I would not mind ditching the above bias if I see prices break below daily low of 1.4405
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – Rebound from trend line support likelyResistance – 1.4514, 1.4549, 1.46 Support – 1.4474, 1.4428, 1.4374 Cable’s finally found support at the rising trend line drawn from April low and May low in the NY session. A minor dip below the same in Asia was quickly done and the pair is now attempting to take out 1.45 handle. The sharp drop also pushed the hourly RSI into oversold territory. Consequently, spot may take out 1.45 and test supply around 1.4549 (23.6% of 1.3835-1.4770). On the other hand, a failure to take out 1.45 followed by drop below Asian session low of 1.4460 would shift risk in favor of a drop to 1.44 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – Fades spike to 1.4720Resistance – 1.4684, 1.4740, 1.4761 Support – 1.4636, 1.46, 1.4549 Pair’s failure to sustain above 1.47 followed by a retreat to 1.4665 if followed by a drop below 1.4636 could signal short-term trend reversal and a possible drop to 1.4549 levels. Retreat from the Asian session high of 1.4726 has also kept the hourly bearish price-RSI divergence intact. On the other hand, a rebound from 1.4636 could yield sideways action in the range of 1.4636-1.47. Bearish invalidation is seen only if prices break above 1.4740 (negating hourly bearish price-RSI divergence), although bulls would a convincing break above 1.4770 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD at leg D of Cypher ahead of US durable orders releaseResistance – 1.4708, 1.4740, 1.4770 Support – 1.4684, 1.4636, 1.46 Pair ran out of steam at a high of 1.4740 earlier today, following which a drop to 1.4677 was seen. The pair is now trading around 1.4708 levels, which is the leg D of the Cypher pattern drawn on the daily chart. Note the Leg D in the Cypher Pattern is where offers are expected to come-in. The hourly chart also suggests a bearish price RSI divergence has been formed, thus making 1.4740 a strong resistance. Focus on US durable goods data US durable goods orders data is scheduled for release today. Corporate spending is expected to have slowed down in April. The focus is likely to be on capital goods non defense ex aircraft orders, which if strong could overshadow even a weak headline figure and lend support to the US dollar. Note that June rate hike bets stand around 38% and could near 50% if the durable goods figure is strong. That would also trigger speculation of hawkish comments from Fed’s Yellen tomorrow. Thus, a strong durable goods data could push GBP/USD pair lower towards 1.4636 given 1.4708 is leg D of cipher pattern + there is bearish price RSI divergence on the hourly. Moreover, a weak day end closing could add credence to Cypher pattern and signal weakness ahead. On the other hand, a horribly weak durable goods report could see the pair take out 1.4740, and move towards 1.4770 levels. Bulls need to take out 1.48 on day end closing basis as that would signal bullish inverted head and shoulder breakout.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD outlook – Eyes daily 200-MAResistance – 1.4777, 1.48, 1.4869 Support – 1.4685, 1.4636, 1.4604 Pattern – Bullish break from symmetrical triangle, inverse head and shoulder Pair’s bullish break from symmetrical triangle formation yesterday along with a day end closing well above 1.4685 (100% Fib expansion of Feb low-Mar high-April low) indicates continuation of rally that began from the low of 1.3835. Inverse head and shoulder formation neckline at 1.48 stands exposed and could be beached if the UK Q1 GDP is revised higher, in which case supply around 1.4850-1.4869 could be tested. Meanwhile, overbought RSI could make it difficult for the pair to take out 1.4777 (daily 200-MA), especially if the GDP print is kept unchanged. On the lower side, support at 1.4663 could be put to test, under which 1.4636 stands as a major support, where fresh demand could be anticipated.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – Needs to break above 1.4686 Pair witnessed a bullish break from symmetrical triangle as anticipated in Europe today. Spot jumped to a high of 1.4695 before trimming gains to trade around 1.4686 (100% Expansion of Feb low-Mar high-April low). Pair needs to break above the same, preferably on daily closing basis as that would open doors for a test of inverse head and shoulder neckline level of 1.48 levels. Repeated failure to take out 1.4686 in the US session could trigger a bout of profit taking, which is unlikely to push the pair below critical level of 1.4636. Nevertheless, traders should note that a day end closing below 1.4636 would signal bulls have lost steam.
by TipTVFinance
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GBP/USD outlook - bullish break from symmetrical triangle likelyResistance - 1.4636, 1.4665, 1.47 Support - 1.4610, 1.4549, 1.45 Pair's rebound from Monday's low of 1.4443 has kept the rising bottom formation intact on daily charts. This coupled with daily closing well above critical resistance 1.4549 yesterday indicates the pair could take out 1.4636 (38.2% of 1.5930-1.3835 + symmetrical triangle resistance) and make a move towards 1.4664 (May 19 high) - 1.47 levels. On the other hand, a failure to take out 1.4636 if followed by a break below 1.46 would expose support at 1.4549 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD US session outlook - needs break above 1.4636Pair's rebound from hourly 200-MA did result in a test if 1.4549 levels as anticipated in European session outlook. Prices managed to take out 1.4549 and clock a high of 1.4619. The spot currently trades around 1.4608 levels. Bulls now need a bullish break above 1.4636 (38.2% of 1.5930-1.3835+ symmetrical triangle resistance), preferably on day end closing basis as that would open doors for a re-test of May 3 high of 1.4770. The likelihood of such a move is high given a nice rebound from hourly 200-MA has kept the rising bottom formation intact on the daily chart as - The larger falling trend line has been breached as well. 21-day EMA and 55-day EMA have confirmed a bullish crossover earlier this month. Today's rebound is from 21-day EMA. Plus, hourly chart also now shows 21-EMA and 55-EMA bullish crossover. Hence, as of now it looks like only a sudden spike in "exit" vote in Brexit polls could rattle GBP.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD - Cypher pointing to 1.65Monthly chart shows a Cypher formation pointing to a extension of recovery (that began from 1.3835) to 1.65 levels. Note the rebound from 1.3835 levels is also a trend line support. Watch out for a break above 1.4627 (23.6%) which also increases the likelihood of the pair moving further to 38.2% level of 1.5117. Note the formation appears unlikely to unfold if Britons vote in favor of 'Brexit'. However, if we trust the chart, it means a less likelihood of Brexit followed by rise in BOE rate hike bets.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – 1.4549 is a strong hurdle, eyes Carney testimonyResistance – 1.45, 1.4549, 1.46 Support – 1.4443, 1.4413, 1.4375 Hourly chart pattern – Falling trend line intact Cable jumped to 1.4549 but failed to take out the same and fell to an intraday low of 1.4442 levels before recovering to end the day at 1.4483 levels. The day end closing kept the rising trend line (drawn from Apr 6 low – Apr 14 low) support on the daily chart. The spot currently trades around 1.4481 (hourly 200-MA). Outlook Pair’s break below hourly 200-MA at 1.4481 coupled with hourly RSI below 50.00 would add credence to falling trend line formation and expose 1.4443 levels, where a violation would increase risk of a drop to 1.4413-1.44 levels. On the other hand, rebound from hourly 200-MA followed by a break above 1.45 would shift risk in favor of a re-test of 1.4549 (23.6% of 1.3835-1.4770). However, bearish invalidation is seen only if prices see hourly closing above 1.4549 levels. Carney’s second round with pro-Brexit lawmakers The Bank of England governor will testify at 10 a.m. in London on Tuesday, alongside Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent and fellow officials Martin Weale and Gertjan Vlieghe. This is Carney’s second encounter with pro-Brexit lawmaker Jacob Rees-Mogg and a last one before referendum. Carney was accused of acting politically and compromising the independence of the BOE during his last testimony. A heated exchange between Carney and pro-Brexit lawmaker won’t be surprising. Traders can expect Carney and Co. to warn about negative impact of Brexit and bank’s readiness to provide more stimulus if BRexit pushes UK into recession. Note that so far, 280 economists have signed up to a letter opposing an exit.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD updateCable rose to 1.4549 as expected in Europe, but failed to take out the same and dipped to 1.4461 levels. The currency pair now trades around 1.4467 levels. Outlook Cable's failure to take out 1.4549 followed by a break below hourly 200-MA indicates a short-term top has been made around 1.4660 and the intraday outlook is now consolidation with negative bias. Given the falling trend line on the hourly chart and an hourly below hourly 200-MA, the spot could extend losses 1.4440 levels. On the higher side, break above 1.44 could be met with fresh offers. Bearish invalidation is seen only above 1.4549 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD outlook - symmetrical triangle on daily chartResistance – 1.4558, 1.4636-1.4650, 1.4697 Support – 1.4488 (weekly 5-MA), 1.4413, 1.4375 Pair’s rebound from weekly 5-MA support of 1.4488 amid bullish daily RSI (at 55.00) indicates the prices could be heading towards 1.4549 (23.6% of 1.3835-1.4770) – 1.4558 (larger falling trend line resistance). Further gains towards symmetrical triangle resistance around 1.4636-1.4650 could be put to test following an hourly closing above 1.4649. The case for a bullish move remains intact as long as prices do not see a day end closing below symmetrical triangle support. Nevertheless, intraday break below 1.4470 warrants caution on the part of bulls as support at 1.4459-1.4413 could be put to test especially if break below 1.4470 is triggered by pro-Brexit polls.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD US session outlook – Battling for a recoveryCable dipped in Europe to near 1.4549 (23.6% of 1.3835-1.4770) as anticipated in European session outlook. We also talked about a possible rebound from 1.4549, although that failed to happen as the pair struggled to cut through 1.4575 levels. Outlook There is little data due for release in the US, hence big action is unlikely. However, dips below 1.4549 could see the pair extend losses towards 1.4513-1.45 levels. On the higher side, watch out for a break above 1.4575 levels as that could push the spot higher to 1.46 levels. A move higher appears likely since bulls have been able to defend 1.4549 levels throughout Europe.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – Is there a scope for profit taking ahead of weekend?Cable strengthened for fourth consecutive session yesterday after the data in the UK showed retail sales jumped more than expected in April. The BRC retail sales monitor had shown a sharp slowdown earlier this month, however, we had noted that unlike official data, it wasn’t seasonally adjusted. GBP/USD dropped to a low of 1.4332 (almost 23.6% of 1.5930-1.3835) on Monday before resuming the upward journey. A moderate rebound in UK CPI was ignored by markets as FT’s poll of polls showed ‘remain’ vote in lead by six basis points. In recent weeks, the polls had shown a gap of 2-3 basis points. Sharp drop in Brexit bets led to a rally in Sterling and drop in gilts (rise in yields). Mixed UK employment and wage growth data and strong retail sales data only added to Sterling’s appeal. Scope for profit taking ahead of weekend Fed June rate hike bets have spiked from 4% to 40% over last one week or so as policymakers were out on the wires with their hawkish comments and Fed minutes talked about June rate hike. However, upbeat UK data and falling Brexit bets helped Sterling remain resilient. Now that markets have priced-in both, investors may chose to unwind Sterling longs on US rate outlook. The second reason is chart driven. A look at hourly chart indicates a bearish price-RSI divergence, followed by a bearish break in RSI. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that Cable has breached a larger falling trend line on Wednesday on day end basis. Consequently, profit taking/correction could be seen, although support at 1.4549 is likely to remain intact. A rebound from 1.4549 could be followed by a break above 1.46 and move to strong hurdle at 1.4636 (38.2% of 1.5930-1.3835). Only a day end closing above 1.4636 would signal continuation of rally from Monday’s low of 1.4332. Meanwhile, bullish invalidation is seen if prices end the day below 1.4549 (larger falling trend line support).
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD - trapped between two trend line levelsOutlook on Cable remains bullish, given the bullish break from a larger falling trend line noted here Trapped between two trend lines - Red - Drawn from from Aug 25 high and Nov 2 high and extended Blue - Drawn from Sep 30 low and Nov 6 low and extended Unless there is a clear breach of either of two trend lines, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. Note - that we have had a bullish break above Red trend line yesterday, hence bears may have to wait for fall back below the same on day end closing basis before jumping into markets, while bulls could be happy with an hourly closing above blue trend line
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD outlook – Falling trend line breached ahead of UK retailFalling Brexit risks and mixed UK employment and labor data released yesterday pushed GBP/USD pair to an intraday high of 1.4634 (just short of 1.4636 (38.2% of 5930-13835) before hawkish Fed minutes pushed the currency back to 1.4597 levels. Nevertheless, the daily closing at 1.4597 means a larger falling trend line drawn from Aug 25 high and Nov 2 high has been breached. The focus today is on the UK retail sales data, which is expected to show a 0.7% rebound in April. That amounts to a annualized growth of 2%. Core is seen rising 0.6% m/m and 2.5% y/y respectively. Retail sales could miss estimates A leading indicator - monthly Retail Sales Monitor (RSM) from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG – released earlier this month showed sales in April fell on a like-for-like basis compared to last year. Like-for-like sales fell 0.9% in April on a year earlier, the biggest drop since last August following a drop of 0.7% in March. Cold weather affected sales of spring and summer clothing and cautious shoppers reduced spending. Another point worth noting is wage growth excluding bonus slowed down in April and that too could have forced consumers to spend less. Consequently, the official retail sales may miss estimates. However, it is worth noting that - Unlike the official retail measure, the BRC is not calendar adjusted and so likely was depressed by the shift in the timing of Easter. Technicals – Poised for gains Pair’s bullish break from larger falling trend line coupled with bullish daily RSI only adds credence to bullish 21-day EMA and 55-day EMA bullish crossover seen in late April and indicates scope for further gains towards 1.47 levels. On the way higher, 1.4636 could act as a strong hurdle, which needs to be breached. A strong rebound in retail sales could help pair cut through 1.4636 and test supply around 1.47 handle. Bears need to watch out for a rebound from (sub) 1.4548 levels followed by break above 1.4606 as that would signal a possible break above 1.4636 and rally to 1.47 handle. On the lower side, only an hourly close below 1.4548 could signal intraday bullish invalidation and expose 1.45 handle. Given the bullish break on charts, it would take a horribly weak retail sales figure to kill the bullish momentum.
by TipTVFinance