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Gbpusd-trading

GBP/USD – Rejected at confluence of 23.6% Fib & 100-DMAPair failed at 1.2775 (confluence of 23.6% Fib retracement of 1.5019-1.2083 + 100-DMA) on Tuesday. Pair’s rejection at 1.2775 followed by a drop to 1.2646 in Asia suggests the bullish momentum may have run out of steam. Thus, the pair could witness sideways action in the range of 1.2775-1.26 levels in the short-term. The 5-DMA and 10-DMA are rising, while the higher lows formation on RSI is intact, thus the upper end of the range – 1.2775 could be put to test again.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD: Trading the UK PMI reportGBP/USD pair is trading above the 1.25 mark in early Europe. Whether the pair extends gains or falls back below 1.25 as it has done so many times last month partly depends on the UK manufacturing PMI report. The data is expected to show the pace of expansion in the manufacturing activity remained unchanged at 54.3 in November. Export orders may play spoil sport The Industrial Trends survey released on November 22 had pointed to an improvement in the manufacturing order books, but a slowdown in export order books and output growth. The survey said “16% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 27% said they were below normal, giving a balance of -11%. November’s level dropped on the previous month (-6%), but remained well above average (-19%)”. Consequently, the odds of the manufacturing PMI missing estimate largely due to a drop in the export orders cannot be ruled out. The survey data released on November 22 had weighed over the GBP/USD pair. Thus, a slight miss on the manufacturing PMI may not be a big deal. On the contrary a better-than-expected number could send the pair higher to 1.26 levels. Technicals – eyes 1.26 handle Pair’s rebound from the rising trend line support on Tuesday followed by a daily close above the stiff resistance of 1.25 on Wednesday suggests the pair is likely to extend gains to 1.26-1.2630 levels. On the lower side, only a daily close below the rising trend line would signal the doors are open for a drop to 1.2301 levels.
by TipTVFinance
GBP behaving like a funding currencyOne look at the action in the GBP/USD during the Asian session would be enough to convince anyone that the British Pound is a new funding currency. Each time, Trump would take lead in the polls, the risk aversion would worsen and the British Pound would rally against the Dollar. On the other hand, Clinton lead would trigger risk-on moves and a drop in the British Pound. So it would not be surprising to see the British Pound deflate if the markets shrug off Trump fears and rally.
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GBP/USD – Watch out for a rebound from 5-DMAResistance 1.25 1.2558 (Friday’s high) 1.26 Support 1.2389 (5-DMA) 1.2332 (Oct 19 high) 1.2298 (10-DM) Comments – Pair’s failure to hold gains above 1.25 followed by a rejection at the same level in the Asian session and a retreat to 1.2420 suggests the pair could extend losses to 5-DMA level of 1.2389, however, a rebound from the 5-DMA appears likely given the bullish break seen last week. A rebound from 5-DMA followed by a break above 1.25 could yield a rally to 1.26-1.2630 levels.
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GBP/USD – Major hurdle seen at 1.2603 - 1.2790We have plotted Fib retracement from Brexit day high and post Brexit low (1.5019-1.2083) and from September high to post Brexit low (1.3445-1.2083). Note that I am not in favor of plotting retracement on the flash crash low since the exact low is still disputable. The descending trend line has been breached following the hawkish BOE. Furthermore, the offered tone around USD could remain intact given the drop in the US ISM non-manufacturing employment sub index has triggered speculation of a dismal non-farm payrolls print. The area around 1.2404 (23.6% of 1.3445-1.2083) is likely to act as a strong support. On the higher side, a major hurdle is seen at 1.2603 (38.2% of 1.3445-1.2083). Above that a confluence of 23.6% of 1.5019-1.2083 and 50-DMA is seen around 1.2790.
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GBP/USD – Falling trend line could be breachedSupport 1.2285 (monthly Fib pivot + weekly 5-MA) 1.2221 (previous day’s low) 1.2083 (Oct 25 low) Resistance 1.2360 (falling trend line resistance) 1.2534 (4-hr 200-MA) 1.2694 (10-DMA) Comments: Pound stands to gain if BOE meets market expectations The BOE has been likely to confirm what the market already knows - there is little room left for a further cut in the interest rates. The central bank is widely expected to revise its short-term inflation and growth forecasts higher and long-term growth forecasts lower. Unless there is dovish surprise, the British Pound could move higher, consequently, the descending trend line could be breached. On the charts, except for the moving averages there is no critical level that could act as a resistance till 1.2798 (July 6 low). The pair could revisit and may actually breach recent key support of 1.20873 if the BOE drops a bomb by hinting at a future rate cut.
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GBP/USD Techs – Spikes, but descending trend line still intactResistance 1.2380 (trend line resistance) 1.25 (zero figure) 1.2559 (4-hr 200-MA) Support 1.2332 (Oct 19 high) 1.2234 (5-DMA + 10-DMA) 1.2114 (Oct 28 low) Comments – Despite the spike seen today, the bearish invalidation is still not seen…given the spot is still trading below the descending trend line resistance seen today at 1.2380. Only a daily close above the same would suggest a short-term bottom is in place at 1.2083.
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UK manufacturing PMI preview: What to expect of GBP/USD?UK manufacturing PMI for the month of October is seen coming-in at 54.5 compared to September’s figure of 55.4. CBI data showed boost in exports · According to the CBI data released on October 24, manufacturing orders from foreign customers hit their highest level in two and a half years in October, with a reading of +8. · Furthermore, export orders were flat in the quarter, the first time they have not fallen since mid-2014. · However, domestic orders dropped from the previous quarter’s reading of +11 in July to +5 in October. · Overall, the CBI data suggest the manufacturing PMI could print in line with estimates. The risk if any is on the higher side. Strong data could trigger a sharp rise in the Pound BOE is widely seen keeping rates unchanged on Thursday and revise inflation and growth forecasts higher. Moreover, the rate cut bets have gone out of the window. A strong manufacturing PMI data would only add credence to hawkish expectations and thus end up sending Pound higher across the board. On the other hand, a surprisingly weak data could yield a revisit to 1.2144-1.21 levels. Technicals – Falling trend line could be breached Daily chart The pair has managed to hold above 1.21 handle despite repeated selling above 1.23 handle throughout the last month. Consequently, a technical correction could take the prices above the descending trend line resistance. A daily end close above the falling trend line would open doors for 1.25 levels. On the other hand, a day end close below 1.21 would signal a fresh sell-off to sub 1.20 levels.
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GBP/USD – Back-to-back inside candles on weekly chartBuyers are just refusing to step in even though the sell-off in the GBP/USD pair appears to have stalled. Dips below 1.22 are being bough into but the demand isn’t seen above 1.23 levels, thus gains have been limited. Overall, the price action is sure to raise caution, however, the weekly chart still suggests the potential for a corrective move exits. On the weekly chart, we see back-to-back inside candles. Inside candles at the bottom of the 2-year long downtrend suggests corrective rally ahead.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – Back-to-back inside candles on weekly chartBuyers are just refusing to step in even though the sell-off in the GBP/USD pair appears to have stalled. Dips below 1.22 are being bough into but the demand isn’t seen above 1.23 levels, thus gains have been limited. Overall, the price action is sure to raise caution, however, the weekly chart still suggests the potential for a corrective move exits. On the weekly chart, we see back-to-back inside candles. Inside candles at the bottom of the 2-year long downtrend suggests corrective rally ahead.
by TipTVFinance
GBP/USD – Strong support around 1.2240Despite the retreat from the high of 1.2333, the odds of a bullish move remain intact given the bullish price RSI divergence on the intraday charts last week and the bullish inverted hammer candle on the daily. Furthermore, short-term moving averages – 5-DMA and 10-DMA appear to have bottomed out. Thus a rebound from 1.2240 appears likely and could yield a move back to 1.2330 and 1.2380 levels. On the lower side, only a daily close below Oct 12 low (inverted bullish hammer candle) of 1.2115 would signal a fresh sell-off.
by TipTVFinance