The Friday Forecast; Best Setups Frr Feb 7This market outlook will cover 15 markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
Non Farm Payroll news tomorrow! This is likely to inject a lot of volatility into the markets.
I recommend to wait until after the news is announced before executing on any trades. You never know where the market will go!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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GBPUSD
GBPUSD at Key Resistance: Will Sellers Push Toward 1.24280?OANDA:GBPUSD has reached a significant resistance zone, marked by prior price rejections and strong selling pressure. This level has historically acted as a key supply area, increasing the likelihood of a bearish bounce if sellers regain control.
With the price now testing this resistance, I anticipate a potential downward move toward the 1.24280 level, aligning with the broader bearish market structure. This setup suggests the possibility of a retracement after the recent upward movement.
Traders should watch for confirmation signals, such as bearish engulfing candles or rejection wicks, to validate the potential for a reversal.
XAU/USD: A Possible Correction? (Read the caption.)Analyzing the gold chart on the 30-minute timescale reveals that, as expected, the price corrected to $2858 following yesterday's study. However, it rapidly recovered, gaining 240 pips to set a new all-time high of $2882.
Today, we finally had a pullback from $2882 to $2848, and gold is currently trading around $2868. If the market manages to stabilize below $2873.5 and is strongly rejected from this level, we may witness a fall down to depths under $2850.
With increasing market volatility and important macroeconomic events on the horizon, traders should exercise caution. Price activity near these levels will be key in deciding the next move, as gold responds to fundamental variables such as inflation data and geopolitical developments. Monitoring price activity near support and resistance levels will be critical for spotting potential trading opportunities.
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By Nexus Trades Zone
Bank of England cuts rates, British pound slipsThe British pound is sharply lower on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2434, down 0.56% on the day. The pound fell as much as 1.1% but has pared around half of the losses.
The Bank of England (BoE) lowered interest rates by 0.25% at today’s policy meeting, bringing the bank rate to 4.5%, its lowest level since May 2023. Today's move was widely expected and the Monetary Policy Committee vote to lower rates was unanimous at 9-0. Seven of the members voted for a 0.25% cut while two members voted for a larger reduction of 0.50%. The vote was a slight surprise as the markets had expected that eight members would vote for a cut while one would vote to hold rates.
Governor Bailey sounded dovish at his post-meeting press conference, saying that the BoE expects to continue lowering rates as inflation is projected to move lower. Still he warned that there is much uncertainty and that rate decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
The BoE’s rate statement noted that there had been “substantial progress on disinflation over the past two years”. Still, the statement stressed the cautious stance of the Bank, saying that it would take a “gradual and careful” approach to further rate cuts. This means that the BoE would prefer to deliver modest cuts in increments of 25-basis points, provided that disinflation remains in place.
This week's PMIs are painting bleak picture of the UK economy. Manufacturing remains in contraction and services is barely showing growth. Earlier today, construction PMI dropped sharply to 48.1 from 51.2, which indicates contraction. This weak release has contributed to the pound's decline today.
GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2462 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.2420
1.2506 and 1.2548 are the next resistance lines
EUR/USD : More Fall Ahead? Let's See! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the EUR/USD chart on the three-day timeframe, we can see that the price was rejected from the 1.053 level, as per our main analysis, leading to a decline of over 300 pips down to 1.021.
Currently, EUR/USD is trading around 1.036, and if the price stabilizes below 1.042, we can expect further downside movement. Keep an eye on the price reaction to the key levels marked on the chart!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
EUR/USD : Get Ready for the next Bearish move (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that after rising to the upper limit of the supply zone at 1.046 - 1.055, the price has finally corrected and is currently trading around 1.042. If the price stabilizes below this level, we can expect further declines in EURUSD.
However, keep in mind that in about 2.5 hours, we have the significant CB Consumer Confidence report, which could strongly impact the market!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Keep an eye on the BoE interest rate decisionDo not miss the BoE interest rate decision, where the Bank is expected to go for another 25bps cut. Can the BoE afford it? Let's see.
MARKETSCOM:GBPUSD
FX_IDC:GBPUSD
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GBPUSD - Will the dollar return to the bullish trajectory?!US President Donald Trump has once again shown his mastery of political bluffs. He pushed negotiations with Mexico and Canada to the brink of crisis, there were numerous reports of increased tariffs and tougher measures, but in the end, he canceled everything. Instead, only a few symbolic measures were announced at the border, many of which had been discussed before. Now it seems that this scenario will be repeated again in the next 30 days.
That this was a bluff was predictable from the beginning, but it was a challenging experience for analysts and markets. If you didn’t have a moment of doubt during this process, you probably weren’t paying close enough attention. But that’s the Trump strategy: in the market you have to have a strong belief that you are on the right track. When everyone is panicking, you have to stay calm and watch the process from the outside. The trade war has caused significant volatility in financial markets, and it’s not easy to make a profit in this environment.
One of the main challenges was the timing. Last week, Trump announced that Mexico and Canada could do nothing to prevent the tariffs. But just days later, the two countries made almost no concessions and no tariffs were imposed.
The signs of a shift in direction were already clear. The most important sign was the comments of Kevin Hassett, the White House economic adviser, who indicated that the talks were changing direction. He shifted the focus of the discussion to the problem of drugs and fentanyl, a shift that indicated that the Trump administration was looking to declare a victory in the negotiations.
When even CNBC analysts noticed the change, it was clear that the direction of the talks had changed. “It doesn’t seem like you believe that these tariffs are going to happen, or that they will last very long,” one of the network’s hosts told Hassett in an interview.
How did the financial markets react? The currency market was one of the best indicators to understand developments. While the stock markets were volatile, the trends in Forex were more transparent and occurred without random disturbances.
The focus of attention on financial markets today is the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision. The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, starting the new year. The decision will not come as a surprise, as OIS market data shows that traders have priced in a cut with a probability of around 92%. The cut will take the Bank of England’s policy rate to 4.50%, while policymakers continue to gradually reduce interest rates.
However, the most important part of the decision will be the central bank’s statement and tone. The results of the December vote showed that there is a division among BoE policymakers. Dhingra, Ramsden and Taylor had voted for a 25 basis point cut earlier in the same meeting.
The Bank of England continues to insist that “a gradual approach to removing monetary policy constraints remains appropriate.” This will remain the watchword for monetary policy today, even if interest rate cuts are implemented.
But economic uncertainties remain. The December inflation report showed that price pressures have eased, but the trend is not sustainable.
Analysts have made a few key points:
• The decline in inflation has been driven largely by falling service prices.
• But a closer look suggests that the decline may be temporary. Rob Wood of Pantheon Economics explained that the ONS’s calculation method has led to a drop in airline prices on December 10. The drop came before the Christmas break, when prices would normally have been expected to rise.
Overall, the disinflationary trend remains unsustainable. With core inflation still above 3%, the Bank of England remains committed to keeping price pressures in check.
Future Forecast:
• The Bank of England will cut interest rates today as expected, but will emphasize that future actions will depend on economic data.
• Traders do not expect interest rate cuts in February and March, but have forecast the next cut for May 2025.
• In total, interest rate cuts for 2025 are estimated at around 83 basis points.
Since the Bank of England is unlikely to make any clear commitments on the future course of its policies, the impact of this decision on the value of the pound and government bonds (Gilts) is expected to be limited.
The GBPUSD currency pair is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction, the pair can be bought within the specified demand zone.
GBPUSD A Clear Sell To Buy Set UPFirst I want to thank you all for the love you have showed. Much appreciated.
Second, I sound groggy in this video..... just exhausted but hey, I have to do this for you guys.
Anyway, this is a follow up on the last video that I did (attached here) where I mentioned that since we have already gotten a bullish break of internal structure (signaling an internal trend change) we should expect a pullback.
At the time i was recording this, price is approaching a demand zone where we should expect to see a bullish reaction to take us back to where we are looking to get involved with the sells.
If you are comfortable buying from the zone, you should (I will just wait for the reaction off that demand zone into my supply zone to sell).
Caution to the people looking to sell.
If price makes a deeper pullback, (blasting through the demand zone), cancel your sell orders and start looking for buy opportunities.
If the decisional demand zone get's blasted, let's wait for the extreme to hold.
EURNZD Analysis , Support Bounce and Bullish PotentialEURNZD is currently trading at 1.83300, with a target price of 1.89000. This suggests a potential upward movement of 500+ pips. The price is bouncing off a strong support level, indicating a possible bullish reversal. The support and resistance pattern highlights key price zones where buying and selling pressure increase. A successful bounce from support strengthens the bullish outlook. Traders anticipate the price moving towards the next resistance level at 1.89000. Confirmation through candlestick patterns and volume analysis is essential. Risk management should include a stop-loss below the support level. Fundamental factors like interest rate decisions can impact price action. Monitoring market sentiment and economic news is crucial for trade execution.
Pound Hits Three-Week High as Markets Await BoE CutThe British pound rose above $1.25, its highest since January 7, as the US dollar weakened and the focus shifted to the Bank of England’s Thursday decision. Policymakers are expected to cut rates by 25bps to 4.5%, reflecting slowing growth and easing services inflation. Market sentiment remained cautious over US tariffs, with concerns about a US-China trade conflict impacting global stability. Meanwhile, UK input price inflation hit an 18-month high in January, according to the latest PMI report.
The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2500. In the event of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2600 and 1.2650. On the downside 1.2340 will be the first support level. 1.2265 and 1.2100 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
Levels discussed on Livestream 5th Feb 20255th Feb 2025
DXY: Trading lower, needs to break 107.50 to retest 107 round number support level.
NZDUSD: Wait and look for reaction at 0.57 resistance area
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6280 SL 25 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.6325)
GBPUSD: Buy 1.2530 SL 30 TP 80
EURUSD: Sell 1.0440 SL 30 TP 100
USDJPY: Looking for reaction at current support level. Buy 154.10 or Sell 152.30 (SL 40 TP 120)
EURJPY: Buy 160.10 SL 60 TP 120
GBPJPY: Nothing for now
USDCHF: Downside to 0.8980, no H1 setup
USDCAD: Sell 1.4280 SL 40 TP 150
XAUUSD: Hit my TP at 2865, could retrace to 2841 before trading higher again to maybe 2900
GBPUSD H4 I Bullish Bounce Based on the H4 chart, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.24679, which aligns with an overlap support level and the previous breakout zone. This area is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bullish setup.
Our take profit is set at 1.25628, near a previous resistance level, where price may face selling pressure.
The stop loss is placed at 1.23769, below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, allowing room for price fluctuations while maintaining the bullish outlook.
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Bullish continuation?The Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 1.2475
1st Support: 1.2393
1st Resistance: 1.2611
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GBPUSD WGBP/USD jumped to the 423% Fibonacci level, breaking the weekly trendline and attempting a new high. However, the time cycle and structure are not yet complete. The market may create fake zones to trap liquidity before completing the structure. A sharp drop is possible, depending on the duration of the sideways movement. If the sideways phase breaks all previous highs, the market could turn bullish. However, the bearish structure is still in progress.
Bullish momentum to extend?GBP?USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2466
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.2398
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.2581
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
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GBP/USD Stuck Between Fed Policy and BoE DecisionThe USD Index (DXY) remains near its weekly low as expectations grow for further Fed monetary easing. Tuesday’s JOLTS report signaled a cooling US labor market, increasing speculation of rate cuts despite inflation concerns.
Global sentiment is positive after President Trump delayed tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, easing trade war fears. This risk-on mood weakens the USD’s safe-haven appeal while supporting GBP/USD. However, lingering US-China trade tensions and the Fed’s hawkish stance limit USD losses, keeping GBP/USD gains in check.
Traders await Thursday’s BoE policy meeting with key resistance levels at 1.2500, 1.2600, and 1.2650. Support stands at 1.2340, followed by 1.2265 and 1.2100.
GBP/USD Trend Reversal? Smart Money Entering the Market!GBP/USD is a major forex pair representing the exchange rate between the British Pound (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD). The current price is 1.25100, and the target price is set at 1.27000, indicating an expected upward movement. This trade setup suggests a potential gain of over 200 pips if the price reaches the target. A pip, or "percentage in point," is a standard unit of movement in forex trading, where 1 pip in GBP/USD is 0.0001. The trend line breakout confirms a bullish signal, meaning the price has moved above a key resistance level. Strong volume support indicates that many traders are participating in this move, adding to the momentum. A breakout with high volume often leads to sustained price movement, increasing the likelihood of hitting the target. If the trend continues, traders might see further gains beyond the expected 1.27000 level. However, risk management is crucial, as market conditions can change unexpectedly. Keeping an eye on economic news and key events related to the UK and US economies is essential. Overall, this setup suggests a strong buying opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on the breakout.
GBPUSD H4 | FOREX BEELooking at the GBP/USD H4 chart, I can identify the following key observations:
1. Trendline Resistance: The market is currently testing or approaching a key descending trendline, indicating potential resistance at higher levels.
2. Fibonacci Levels: The chart highlights the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level near 1.2415, suggesting a possible bullish target zone if price breaks above the trendline resistance.
3. Support Zones: The red zones below, particularly near 1.2251 (0.236 Fibonacci), appear to act as important support levels where buying interest may reappear.
4. Market Scenario:
- If the price breaks above the trendline and sustains, it may move towards the next resistance at 1.2415 or higher.
- On the downside, a failure at the current level could push the market back to the support zones around 1.2250 or lower.
This setup suggests a cautious approach for now. A breakout confirmation above the descending trendline would provide a clearer signal for bullish continuation. Conversely, failure to break higher may lead to renewed bearish pressure.
GbpUsd- Strongly bullish on medium termAs you know from my previous TVC:DXY analyses, I anticipate a correction in the index, which should lead to a rise in major USD pairs.
Among all the USD pairs I've recently covered, FX:GBPUSD appears to be the most bullish.
Looking at the posted chart, after forming a bullish Pin Bar at its recent low in mid-January, GBP/USD began to reverse and climbed to 1.25, which was the initial target at that time.
A correction followed this first leg up. What stands out in this case is the strong bullish reversal candle that formed after Monday’s Asian open gap. Not only did it fill the gap (like in EUR/USD's case), but the pair also returned to the 1.25 resistance level.
This structure signals strong bullish momentum, and I expect GBP/USD to continue its ascent toward the next key resistance zone at 1.28.
In conclusion, my strategy remains to buy the dips.
Depending on the entry point, this setup offers a potential risk-to-reward ratio of over 1:3.