GBPUSD Weekly BiasI do anticipate that this price might continue with the bullish momentum, targeting buyside liquidity at 1.281. My optimum entry position will be at 1.2552 (with confirmation from a lower time frame)
GBPUSD
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 17, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair is trading slightly higher near 1.25850 in the early Asian session on Monday, rising on the back of a positive UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and weak US retail sales data.The US market will be closed on Monday due to the Presidents' Day holiday.US retail sales posted their biggest drop in nearly two years, dragging down the dollar. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported on Friday that retail sales fell 0.9 per cent in January after an upwardly revised 0.7 per cent rise in December, which was weaker than the 0.1 per cent decline that had been forecast. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose 4.2 per cent during the same reporting period.Stronger than expected UK GDP figures provide some support for the Pound Sterling (GBP). According to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK economy grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations. Traders will be monitoring the UK labour market and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. These reports may provide some indication as to whether the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates again at its March meeting.
Trading recommendation: GBPUSD: SELL 1.25800, SL 1.26300, TP 1.25100
GBPUSD H4 | Bullish BounceBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.2564, a pullback support at aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 1.2642, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 1.2490, below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bullish rise?The Cable (GBP?USD) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.2508
1st Support: 1.2358
1st Resistance: 1.2844
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
I see an upward movement in this game from the green zone.We have finished the downtrend and are starting a bullish position. I expect a return to the green zone in the post.
The divergence in volume is so high that we will definitely reach the green zone.
For the uptrend, we also have 3 ceilings at the beginning of the trend, which is very good for a return to the top.
tp3.5%
sl1.2%
GBP/USD Breaks Key Resistance: Targeting 1.2800 GBP/USD is trading at approximately 1.2580. Your target price of 1.2800 suggests an anticipated upward movement of over 200 pips, indicating a bullish outlook. The pair has recently broken above a significant resistance level, and the next key resistance is identified at 1.2800, which could potentially act as a barrier and prompt a downward correction.
Technical analysis reveals that GBP/USD has exited a multi-month downtrend, with the January rebound extending nearly 4.4% from the yearly low. This upward momentum suggests potential for further gains; however, traders should be cautious as the 1.2800 resistance level may trigger selling pressure, leading to a possible retracement.
Fundamentally, the UK's economic landscape is experiencing shifts. Inflation is expected to rise to 2.8% in January, influenced by factors such as the introduction of VAT on private school fees and increased airfares. This follows the Bank of England's recent 25 basis point rate cut, aimed at stimulating economic activity. Conversely, the U.S. economy shows resilience, with strong economic data suggesting that further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are unlikely.
In summary, while the GBP/USD pair exhibits bullish momentum with a potential target of 1.2800, traders should remain vigilant. The 1.2800 resistance level may serve as a critical point, possibly leading to a downward correction. Monitoring upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications will be essential in making informed trading decisions.
GBPUSD BearishOn GBPUSD 4 Hourly,
A recent pin bar near a strong axis line, suggesting bearish reversal.
Possible 4.5 RR to consider in the current bullish trend channel
GBPUSD is in the Buying Direction after Testing SupportHello Traders
In This Chart GBPUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today GBPUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (GBPUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GBPUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
GbpUsd could continue its reboundAfter breaking above the falling trendline from the end of January, GBP/USD has entered a consolidation phase between 1.23 and 1.25.
Recently, the pair tested the support zone once more and began to rebound.
In my opinion, the upward movement will continue, and we could see a test of the next resistance above 1.26.
In conclusion, I am looking to buy dips below 1.24, with invalidation occurring on a daily close below 1.23.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GBP.USD Longs from 1.25600 back upI expect GBP/USD to continue its bullish momentum and push higher. Following the previous break of structure, I am looking for price to mitigate the 2-hour demand zone to maintain this upward trend. If price does not react from this level, I have also identified a 3-hour demand zone as a secondary point of interest.
If price reacts bullishly from either of these zones, my next selling opportunity will be at the refined 1-hour supply zone around 1.26600. Once price reaches this level, I will look for signs of distribution to confirm a potential short setup.
Confluences for GU Buys:
- For price to continue higher, it must mitigate a strong demand zone to gain momentum.
- Liquidity remains above, providing a natural target for price.
- The higher time frame trend is still bullish.
- Clean 2-hour, 3-hour, and 11-hour demand zones are in close proximity.
- DXY has been bearish, which aligns with this bullish GU outlook.
P.S. If price drops instead, I have an extreme discounted zone marked at the 11-hour demand zone at the bottom as a potential long entry.
GU Ascends From Triangle - Breakout & Retest Set-UpFX:GBPUSD ended last week with a Bullish Price Breakout of the Ascending Triangle that it fell into after breaking down below Support-Turned-Resistance and finding Support at the October 2023 Lows last month.
Overall indicators suggest we could be experiencing a Valid Breakout of this pattern due to:
1) Strong Breaker Bar with Close outside of Range
2) Based on the Range from High to Low of the Ascending Triangle, Price made a 26% move beyond the break
3) Bullish Volume following Break
4) RSI Above 50
The Confirmation of Valid Break will come if price is able to:
1) Close 3 - 5 Days outside of pattern
2) Price successfully is Supported by Previous Structure Broken
3) Bullish Volume Builds on Retest
When the Breakout is Validated, Buying opportunities could be delivered in the ( 1.2525 - 1.2485 ) Range on the retest with an immediate Target Profit at the December 2024 Resistance laying overhead at the ( 1.28 - 1.29 ) Range
Fundamentally, this month we saw BOE make a 25bps rate cut down to 4.50% with GBP having quite a positive increase in GDP (+.3%) which could be inflationary. USD showed a slight uptick in CPI (+.1% y/y) strengthening the stance on minimal Rate Cutes this year but a big miss in Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Employment!
GBP:
Tuesday - Claimont Count Change/ BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks
Wednesday - CPI
Thursday - Consumer Confidence
Friday - Retail Sales/ Flash Manufacturing PMI/ Flash Services PMI
USD:
Monday - Presidents Day (Bank Holiday)
Tuesday - Empire State Manufacturing Index
Wednesday - FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday - Unemployment Claims/ Philly Fed Manufacturing Index/ Crude Oil Inventories
Friday - Flash Manufacturing PMI/ Flash Services PMI/ Existing Home Sales
Harmonic Pattern Trading: Ultimate Guide for 2025Harmonic trading is a powerful price action-based strategy that uses Fibonacci ratios to identify high-probability reversal zones. These patterns fall under XABCD structure, meaning they have five key points (X, A, B, C, and D) and rely on Fibonacci retracements and extensions.
By mastering harmonic trading, you can identify trend reversals early and achieve higher win rates compared to traditional technical analysis methods.
🔹 Key Principles of Harmonic Trading
1️⃣ Structure of Harmonic Patterns (XABCD)
All harmonic patterns follow the same five-point structure:
X → A: The initial move.
A → B: The first retracement.
B → C: A counter move.
C → D: The final leg, forming the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).
2️⃣ Fibonacci Ratios in Harmonic Patterns
Harmonic trading is Fibonacci-driven, meaning each pattern is defined by specific retracement and extension levels:
Common Fibonacci Retracements: 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%, 88.6%
Common Fibonacci Extensions: 127.2%, 141.4%, 161.8%, 200%, 224%, 261.8%
3️⃣ Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ)
The D-point of the pattern is where price is expected to reverse.
This PRZ zone is validated by Fibonacci confluence, support/resistance, and other confirmation signals (RSI, MACD, divergence, etc.).
Entry: Around D-point reversal confirmation
Stop Loss: Beyond the PRZ invalidation zone
Take Profit: Based on Fibonacci extension levels (often 61.8%, 100%, or 161.8% retracements).
🔷 Primary Harmonic Patterns & Their Structure
1️⃣ Gartley Pattern 🦋
✅ Most popular & reliable harmonic pattern
✅ Predicts trend continuation or reversal
✅ Respects 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from XA
Gartley Pattern Structure:
AB = 61.8% retracement of XA
BC = 38.2% or 88.6% retracement of AB
CD = 78.6% retracement of XA
D-point PRZ → Strong reversal expected
🚀 Trading Tip: Look for confluence with trendlines, supply-demand zones, and RSI/MACD divergence.
2️⃣ Bat Pattern 🦇
✅ High-probability reversal setup
✅ Stronger deep retracement of XA compared to Gartley
✅ Ideal for trend continuation & reversal trades
Bat Pattern Structure:
AB = 38.2% or 50% retracement of XA
BC = 38.2% or 88.6% retracement of AB
CD = 88.6% retracement of XA
D-point PRZ → Expect strong reversal
🚀 Trading Tip: Bat patterns often provide low-risk entries with tight stop losses due to their deep XA retracement.
3️⃣ Butterfly Pattern 🦋
✅ Predicts deep trend reversals
✅ Used for aggressive counter-trend trades
Butterfly Pattern Structure:
AB = 78.6% retracement of XA
BC = 38.2% or 88.6% retracement of AB
CD = 127.2% or 161.8% extension of XA
D-point PRZ → Strong trend reversal expected
🚀 Trading Tip: Butterfly PRZ zones are more extended, so look for price exhaustion & divergence before entering.
4️⃣ Crab Pattern 🦀
✅ The most extended harmonic pattern
✅ Strong 161.8% XA extension creates powerful reversals
Crab Pattern Structure:
AB = 38.2% or 61.8% retracement of XA
BC = 38.2% or 88.6% retracement of AB
CD = 161.8% extension of XA
D-point PRZ → Extreme overextension, likely strong reversal
🚀 Trading Tip: Use confluence with key support/resistance levels & volume analysis to confirm reversals.
5️⃣ Deep Crab Pattern 🦀
✅ More reliable version of the Crab Pattern
✅ D-point extends further for deeper pullbacks
Deep Crab Pattern Structure:
AB = 38.2% or 61.8% retracement of XA
BC = 38.2% or 88.6% retracement of AB
CD = 224% - 261.8% extension of XA
D-point PRZ → Strong reversal expected
🚀 Trading Tip: Similar to the Crab, but requires stronger confirmation signals before entry.
6️⃣ Cypher Pattern 💠
✅ High accuracy harmonic pattern
✅ Faster entries compared to other patterns
Cypher Pattern Structure:
AB = 38.2% to 61.8% retracement of XA
BC = 127.2% to 141.4% extension of AB
CD = 78.6% retracement of XA
D-point PRZ → Price reversal likely
🚀 Trading Tip: Look for RSI/MACD divergence at the D-point for added confirmation.
7️⃣ Shark Pattern 🦈
✅ Newer harmonic pattern variation
✅ Similar to Crab but uses different Fibonacci rules
Shark Pattern Structure:
AB = 113% - 161.8% extension of XA
BC = 113% - 161.8% extension of AB
CD = 88.6% retracement of XA
D-point PRZ → Strong reversal expected
🚀 Trading Tip: Shark patterns often appear before larger trend reversals, so they work well for early trend detection.
🔷 Advanced Harmonic Patterns Overview
📌 3-Drives Pattern
Predicts the end of trends using 3 equal price movements
Each drive follows Fibonacci retracements/extensions
Strong reversal happens after the 3rd drive completes
📌 Alternate Bat Pattern
Similar to Bat but has a deeper B-point retracement (50% of XA instead of 38.2%)
More accurate for identifying trend continuation trades
📌 White Swan & Black Swan
Developed by harmonic trading expert Scott Carney
Similar to the Crab, but focuses on psychological market structure
🚀 How to Trade Harmonic Patterns Successfully
Step 1: Identify the Pattern & PRZ
Use harmonic pattern scanners or manual Fibonacci tools.
Step 2: Wait for Reversal Confirmation
Look for candlestick patterns (pin bars, engulfing candles).
Check RSI, MACD, and volume divergence.
Step 3: Place Your Trade
Entry: Once price reacts at PRZ.
Stop Loss: Beyond PRZ invalidation level.
Take Profit: Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2%, 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%).
🔥 Summary – Why Harmonic Trading Works
✅ High accuracy when Fibonacci ratios are respected
✅ Works across all timeframes (forex, stocks, crypto, indices)
✅ Combines price action, Fibonacci, and confluence factors
If you master these harmonic patterns, you'll consistently spot reversals early, maximize profits, and minimize risks! 🚀📈
GBPUSD is in the Buying Direction after Testing SupportHello Traders
In This Chart GBPUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today GBPUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (GBPUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GBPUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
GBPUSD: Short Signal with Entry/SL/TP
GBPUSD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GBPUSD
Entry - 1.2584
Stop - 1.2652
Take - 1.2445
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
GBP/USD Up on Positive Growth DataThe British pound climbed to $1.2560 after preliminary data showed the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2024, defying expectations of a 0.1% contraction and outperforming the Bank of England’s forecasts. This puts the economy slightly ahead of where it was when Labour took office in July, offering some relief to the government.
However, challenges remain as the Office for Budget Responsibility is set to release an updated economic and fiscal outlook on March 26, with reports indicating a lowered growth forecast. Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.5% last week, its third reduction since beginning its easing cycle in August 2024, while also downgrading its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.7%.
1.2600 is the first resistance level, with further targets at 1.2650 and 1.2700 if the pair moves higher. On the downside, 1.2340 serves as the first support level, followed by 1.2265 and 1.2100 if selling pressure intensifies.
DeGRAM | GBPUSD testing of the channelGBPUSD is under an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price has reached the lower boundary of the channel and 62% retracement level.
Indicators on small timeframes indicate oversold.
We expect the growth to continue after the retest of the channel boundary is completed with a potential reaching of dynamic support.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
GBPUSD H4 | Bearish FallBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 1.2560, which is swing high resistance.
Our take profit will be at 1.2466, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.2619, above a swing high resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Reciprocal tariffs teased, markets react President Donald Trump has just signed a sweeping reciprocal tariff plan. The directive instructs the U.S. to develop new levies on a country-by-country basis but stopped short of implementing any immediate levies.
The Dow reached an intraday high after the market realized the reciprocal tariff process could take weeks or months. In forex, the biggest gainers have been the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, although the British pound is performing well too.
Wells Fargo predict that the tariffs could slow economic growth this year, describing them as a “modest stagflationary shock”. A study from the Peterson Institute estimates that existing import tariffs on Chinese, Mexican, and Canadian goods already cost the average American household over $1,200 annually, with reciprocal tariffs likely adding to that burden.
GBPUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.25400 zone, GBPUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.25400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
UK GDP beats forecast, gives sterling a liftThe British pound has edged higher on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2460, up 0.15% on the day.
The UK economy ended 2024 on a high note, as GDP rose 0.4% m/m in December. This was the fastest pace of growth in nine months and blew past the market estimate of 01.%. The surprise gain was driven by increases in services and manufacturing activity. Annually, the economy expanded 1.5% in December, its best showing since Oct. 2022. This followed a revised 1.1% gain in November and beat the market estimate of 1%.
The surprise to the upside in GDP is welcome news but is tempered by the fact that much of the growth may have been due to government spending, as business investment decreased in the fourth quarter and consumer spending was flat. GDP quarterly growth was only 0.1%, an indication that the UK economy is still weak.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, just after the release of January's hot inflation report. Headline and core CPI were both higher than expected, with headline inflation accelerating for a fourth consecutive month. Powell told lawmakers that the Fed had made "great progress" on inflation, but acknowledged there was more work to do. Powell said that the Fed doesn't "get excited about one or two bad readings" but there are concerns that inflation could be moving in the wrong direction, away from the Fed's 2% target.
The Fed's battle with inflation has also become more complicated with President Donald Trump's promise to impose tariffs on US trading partners. Trump has called on the Fed to lower interest rates, raising fears that he is trying to dictate monetary policy to the Fed, which is suppose to act independent of political considerations.
GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2493 earlier. Above, there is support at 1.2541
1.2435 and 1.2387 are the next support levels
XAU/USD : Important Zones for BUY and SELL ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the 30-minute gold chart, we can see that gold continued its bullish momentum yesterday, reaching a new all-time high at $2,942, as expected from our previous analysis. It was still too early to anticipate a correction, and the strong momentum pushed the price higher.
Currently, gold is trading around $2,900, and I expect the price to dip below $2,896 soon to collect liquidity before we assess its reaction to this level.
Additionally, there is an FVG between $2,929 and $2,934, which I expect to be filled soon as price moves higher. Keep a close watch on how gold reacts at this level for potential SELL setups.
The key BUY zones to consider are $2,875, $2,866, and $2,856.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
xauusd whats next?
**Gold Prices Surge Amid Resilient Market Sentiment**
Gold prices have surged once again, driven by robust buying activity as market participants capitalized on recent dips. As of Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) has climbed to $2,920, recovering sharply from a brief decline the previous day. This rally comes despite macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, including persistent U.S. inflation concerns and discussions of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
### **Key Drivers of Gold’s Rally**
1️⃣ **Inflation and the Fed:**
Gold’s momentum follows a surprising January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed hotter-than-expected inflation. While the data initially spurred concerns about prolonged Federal Reserve tightening, market participants remain confident in gold's safe-haven status. Traders seem unfazed by rising U.S. Treasury yields and the Fed’s commitment to elevated interest rates, focusing instead on gold’s resilience amid broader uncertainties.
2️⃣ **Geopolitical Tensions:**
Despite reports of peace talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin concerning the Ukraine conflict, gold's bullish trajectory remains intact. Investors appear cautious, viewing the negotiations as fraught with uncertainty. While a peace deal could ease geopolitical tensions and trigger risk-on sentiment, the market’s current preference for safety has sustained gold’s appeal.
3️⃣ **Weaker Dollar Boosting Gold:**
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) softened amid optimism surrounding potential peace talks, alongside currency market volatility. A weaker dollar traditionally supports gold, as the two are inversely correlated, further bolstering the metal’s recent gains.
### **Market Dynamics: Yields and Gold Diverge**
Interestingly, gold’s rally has coincided with rising U.S. Treasury yields—a divergence from historical trends. Typically, higher yields weigh on gold due to its non-yielding nature. However, this time, gold’s safe-haven allure amid inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty appears to be overriding these dynamics.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 64.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged through June 2025, up from 50.3% before the January CPI release. This shift reflects expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy, which could paradoxically support gold as inflation concerns persist.
### **Technical Analysis: Bulls Eyeing Record Highs**
Gold maintains a strong bullish bias, with prices supported by the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Currently consolidating within a key buying zone between $2,900 and $2,907, the metal’s upward trajectory remains intact.
**Key levels to watch:**
- **Immediate Resistance:** $2,918 to $2,920. A successful consolidation above this range could set the stage for a test of $2,942 and potentially a new all-time high at $2,980.
- **Support Zone:** Holding above $2,907 will be critical for sustaining bullish momentum.
### **Outlook and Risks**
As markets digest the interplay of macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical developments, gold remains a focal point for traders. While optimism around peace talks between Trump and Putin could introduce volatility, persistent uncertainties ensure gold’s safe-haven demand stays robust.
**Takeaway for Traders:**
Gold’s resilience amidst rising yields, elevated inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty highlights its role as a reliable safe-haven asset. Watch for a breakout above $2,920 for further bullish confirmation, with potential upside targets at $2,942 and beyond.
#gold #trading #marketupdate #CPI #Powell
