FORECAST UPDATES: Post CPI Results. Did We Get The Bias Right?Wednesday Dec. 11, 2024.
This is the Mid-Week Progress Report. Checking the accuracy of the Weekly Forecast and the Updates video posted yesterday.
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GBPUSD
DXY - 4H Dollar Index more FallTechnical Perspective:
TVC:DXY experienced two significant bullish legs in October and November on the daily time frame. However, the index started to fall sharply at the end of November, and this bearish momentum remains strong.
On the 4H chart, DXY reached a key resistance zone and faced a significant rejection with notable bearish momentum, signaling the continuation of the downtrend.
The current movement indicates a high likelihood of further declines, potentially to the bottom of the trading range. Many USD pairs are at critical support or resistance levels, and expected reactions from these zones could amplify downward pressure on the DXY, making it increasingly vulnerable to a substantial fall.
Fundamental Perspective:
In December 2024, the bearish sentiment surrounding the DXY is driven by key fundamental factors. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement another 25 basis point interest rate cut during its December 18 meeting, following earlier cuts in September and November. This dovish policy reflects the Fed’s commitment to supporting economic growth amidst a slightly cooling labor market and growing global uncertainties.
Adding to the pressure, inflation data showed a 2.7% year-over-year increase in November, a slight uptick from 2.6% in October. Despite this, the Fed remains focused on easing monetary conditions to mitigate recession risks. Additionally, the recent U.S. presidential election has raised prospects of fiscal policy changes, including proposed tax cuts and potential tariff adjustments, which contribute to market uncertainty and weigh on the dollar.
These fundamental shifts align with the bearish technical setup, suggesting that the DXY’s downtrend is likely to persist in the near term. Keep an eye on upcoming Fed announcements and inflation data for further confirmation of this trajectory.
XAU/USD : Gold will pump to $2700 ? (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the #Gold chart in the 4-hour timeframe, we observe that the price opened with a positive gap today, showing a rise from $2633 to $2676. Notably, gold finally made its next move upon reaching this level, and we have seen a correction from $2676 to $2666 so far. The key question now is where the price will close in the next 6 hours.
We might see an initial rejection, but due to recent developments in the Middle East and increased risk, further growth in gold prices is anticipated. Keep a close watch on gold's reaction to the levels of $2689 to $2695. This analysis will be updated moment by moment as the price moves!
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Best Regards , Arman Shaban
GBPUSD: Expecting Bullish Continuation! Here is Why:
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current GBPUSD chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
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The BoE's interest rate cut path is becoming unclear.
Bloomberg Economics reports that the Bank of England (BoE) is unlikely to keep cutting interest rates after 2025 due to an overheating economy and the risk of rising inflation. While BoE Governor Bailey anticipates four 25bp cuts next year, markets are skeptical about the central bank's ability to further reduce rates without igniting inflation.
GBPUSD continues its uptrend, holding above the trendline. Both EMAs widen the gap, indicating a bullish momentum. If GBPUSD holds above the trendline, the price could gain upward momentum toward the resistance at 1.2850. Conversely, if GBPUSD breaks below the trendline, the price may retreat to the support at 1.2715, where EMA78 coincides.
GBP/USD Trade Setup: Potential Reversal The price is approaching the lower boundary of an ascending channel, with the RSI signaling an oversold condition, suggesting a potential reversal or bounce higher. Wait for confirmation before entering a long position on GBP/USD.
Target levels:
TP1: 1.2780
TP2: 1.3000
+180/+360 pips GBPCAD Swing trade setup🔸Hello traders, let's review the H4 chart for GBPCAD today. Trading
near premium prices of the multiweek range, closing in on heavy S/R
Currently risk/reward is shifting in bears favor, so it's recommended
to look for sell side setups in this market.
🔸Bearish OB / fresh liquidity set at 8095/8125. Price structure
indicates potential incoming reversal once we trigger the OB.
🔸Recommended strategy for GBPCAD traders: focus on short selling any rips/rallies near OB 8095/8125 price is currently trading near premium levels and is maxed out already, limited upside. TP1 bears +180 TP2 bears +360 pips final exit 7750 keep in mind this is a swing trade setup so naturally will take more time to complete / hit both targets. good luck traders!
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Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
+140 pips The Best Level to BUY/HOLD EURUSD swing trade🔸Hello traders, let's review the 1hour chart for EURUSD today.
Overall, strong price chart with sequence of higher lows in progress.
🔸Clearly defined set of overhead resistances and supports below
market price with liquidity distributed equally among buy side
and sell side order blocks.
🔸Primary pattern / structure is 3 drives in progress, expecting
a final pullback to trigger OB liquidity at/near 0510/0520 before
bullish reaction and final push (3rd drive).
🔸Recommended strategy for EURUSD traders:no trade recommended
at current price, however bulls should enter BUY/HOLD at/near 0510/0520 SL 30 pips TP1 +70 TP2 +140 final exit at 0640. Bears should
wait for further updates and get ready to short from sell side order
blocks near 0640/0660 S/R zone. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Bullish bounce?The Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.2720
1st Support: 1.2646
1st Resistance: 1.2846
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPUSD Possible LongsD1 : Shifted from Bearish to Bullish
4H : Bullish
1H : Shifted from Bearish to Bullish
Daily has already shifted bearish to bullish, Price has tapped into the 4H Order Block and has a nice reaction after tapping into the order block, 1H has shifted from bearish to bullish breaking the short term high. I am targeting 1:2RR towards the weak high
GBPUSD: Channel Up attempting a 4H MA200 cross.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.376, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 36.982) as despite having started a Channel up since the November 22nd bottom, this is after a long term bearish trend that only now will determine if it will switch to bullish or not. Today was in fact the 2nd rejection on the 4H MA200 but at the same time, the 4H MA50 is supporting. This range makes the 4H timeframe neutral as well. If the MA50 continues to hold and the 4H MA200 is crossed with a full candle close, then we will take a short term long, aiming under the 2.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.29000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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GBPUSD Sell AnalysisAs we didn't see a sharp bearish move to create a bearish OB, So I think the price will go higher to touch the supply area and then starts to go down sharply.
We have to wait for more confirmation...
Dear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis for you.
Best Regards
Navid Nazarian
GBPUSD Sell Limit OrderHi everyone.
I think with this bearish engulfing candle we have an area with a good potential to go short.
Lets see what happens...
Dear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis for you.
Best Regards
Navid Nazarian
GBPUSD Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for GBPUSD is below:
The market is trading on 1.2770 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.2750
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBPUSD Sell Limit OrderHi everyone.
I think with this bearish engulfing candle we have an area with a good potential to go short.
Lets see what happens...
Dear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis for you.
Best Regards
Navid Nazarian
GBP/USD → Breaks Out, Eyes New Trend Target Around 1.300Hello everyone, Ben here!
The GBP/USD pair has found an opportunity to recover as a breakout from the previous parallel channel around the 1.271 region takes shape amid the dollar's ongoing correction. Key levels of interest are now set around the 1.300 area, with market sentiment cautiously optimistic.
A notable test of the intermediate low near the 1.248 mark was followed by an impressive reversal pattern, suggesting a bullish shift in momentum. Theoretically, the outlook leans toward further upside. However, the bigger question remains: How sustainable is this rally? The answer primarily lies in the trajectory of the U.S. dollar.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 71.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. This scenario implies increased downside pressure on the USD, potentially opening the door for a moderate recovery in other currencies, including the pound.
From a technical perspective, the channel breakout provides a promising bullish signal, potentially setting the stage for a stronger upward move. However, traders appear cautious, waiting for further confirmation. If a false breakout above resistance occurs and the price falls below 1.271, a move back toward 1.240 could be on the horizon. For now, though, the mid-term outlook hints at a gradual climb from 1.275 to the psychological level of 1.300, supported by positive technical signals.
What are your thoughts on the current dynamics of GBP/USD? Share your insights, questions, or observations—let’s analyze this fascinating setup together!