GBP/USD Bearish Setup: Short at Key Retracement LevelsThe GBP/USD pair is exhibiting strong bearish momentum, having recently broken significantly below its descending channel, indicating heightened selling pressure. As of now, no bullish divergence is observed, suggesting that the price may retrace to form a lower high. Key levels to watch for potential short entries are the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, which align with the bearish trend continuation narrative.
GBPUSD
XAU/USD : Reasons for Falling! (READ THE CAPTION)In the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after reaching $2697 and hitting all targets last Friday, gold eventually closed around the $2690 zone. Today, gold showed a bearish sentiment, dropping by over 300 pips and correcting to as low as $2664.
Currently, gold is trading around $2670, and if it stabilizes below this level within the next 4 hours, further declines can be expected. Potential bearish targets are $2663, $2658.8, and $2652.5, respectively.
This analysis will be updated soon, so stay tuned for a trading setup in the lower timeframes!
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Bouncing Back: EUR/USD Poised for a Bullish WaveEUR/USD is trading at 1.0257, showing signs of bullish momentum with a target price of 1.0800. The price action is based on the support and resistance pattern, with the pair currently bouncing off a strong support level. This bounce indicates a potential reversal and the start of an upward trend. The support level serves as a foundation for buyers to regain control, pushing the price higher. A steady climb toward the resistance level at 1.0800 is expected if the support holds firm. Traders should monitor this bounce closely for confirmation of bullish momentum. The setup presents a favorable opportunity for long positions, supported by technical analysis. However, risk management remains crucial to navigate market volatility. This move emphasizes the role of key levels in predicting price movements. Patience and strategy are essential to capitalize on this trade setup.
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 14, 2025 GBPUSDGBP/USD faltered as markets changed their expectations for interest rates before the end of the year, sending the pair to fresh 15-month lows and breaking through 1.2100, but then ended trading near the 1.2230 starting point.
It has been a quiet start to the week, but more inflation data from both the US and the UK will give traders plenty of material to ponder as they try to determine the first quarter rate differential forecast. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates steady for the first half of the year, while the Bank of England (BoE) will have to choose between keeping interest rates stable in a still-high inflation environment and risking an inflationary spike to support the floundering UK economy with further rate cuts.
Tuesday's significant data of the week will start with the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to rise to 3.7% y/y in December from the previous reading of 3.4%. Wednesday will see the release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which is also expected to accelerate in the near term, with a rise to 0.4% m/m versus the previous reading of 0.1%.
US CPI inflation, also out on Wednesday, is forecast to rise to 2.8% from 2.7%, US retail sales data is expected on Thursday and UK retail sales round out the list of important data this week.
Trading recommendation: Watching the level of 1.2150, trading mainly with Sell orders
GBP/USD Channel BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.2365
2nd Support – 1.2460
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GBPUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.22000 zone, GBPUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.22000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Sticky Inflation, Falling Pound, Pure Chaos in USD pairs!Last week was pure chaos. The dollar flexed like it’s been hitting the gym, while the pound? Let’s just say it’s practicing free-fall techniques. Sterling slipped so hard it might need a parachute soon. 🪂💸
Meanwhile, inflation is still that uninvited party guest who refuses to leave. UK CPI? Sticky. US CPI? Stubborn. And central banks? They’re in the corner pretending it’s not happening. 🙈📉
Here’s what we’re unpacking this week:
👉 Monday : ECB speeches. Expect fancy words, minimal action. 🙄
👉 Tuesday : US PPI drops. Prices rising faster than your blood pressure? Find out! 📈
👉 Wednesday : The big show. UK & US CPI—will inflation finally chill, or are we doomed to more rate drama? 🥶🔥
👉 Thursday : Aussie employment data hops in. Will it jumpstart the AUD? 🦘💵
👉 Friday : China’s GDP report. Rebound or flop? Either way, it’s gonna ripple through the markets. 🌏💣
George’s Hot Take:
Dollar: Still the king. 👑💪
Sterling: In the doghouse. 🐶🚪
Inflation: Like gum on your shoe—it’s not going anywhere. 😤🥿
🎧 Tune in for all the market madness, trading insights, and just the right amount of sarcasm. Because hey, the markets don’t care about your feelings—but we’ll at least laugh about it with you. 😏
🎙️ Listen now and stay ahead of the curve! 🎧
GBPUSD: Fibonacci Levels and Oversold Zones Strengthen SupportThe DXY's strength has pressured markets into critical territories, pushing the pound toward key support levels towards 1.2030.
Fibonacci Extensions
Using the Fibonacci extension tool on the corrective pattern between the July 2023 high (1.3125), October 2023 low (1.2030), and September 2024 high (1.3434), the notable 1.272 extension level aligns with the 1.2030 support.
Momentum Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is retesting levels last seen in October 2023 and September 2022 at 24.30, indicating potential near-term reversal probabilities.
What to Watch
If current support holds, a reversal could push the pair toward resistance at 1.2770, coinciding with the upper border of the 15-year consolidation range. This would require a decisive close above the 2024 lows at 1.2330.
If bearish pressures persist below the critical 1.20 level, further declines could target the 1.5 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension levels, aligning with the 1.18 and 1.1670 zones, respectively.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
Understanding Symmetrical Triangle Breakout and Retest XAUUSD (Gold vs. US Dollar) is currently priced at 2680, with a target price set at 2660. This indicates a bearish outlook, suggesting the price is expected to drop. The pair has recently experienced a symmetrical triangle breakout, which is a technical chart pattern signaling potential price movement. After the breakout, the price is now in a retesting phase, a common occurrence where the price revisits the breakout level to confirm the move. Traders often view this as a critical period to assess the strength of the breakout. If the retest holds, it could validate the downtrend, increasing the probability of reaching the target price. However, failure to maintain the breakout level could result in a reversal. This scenario highlights the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels. The retest phase provides an opportunity for risk management and strategic entry.
GBP/USD: Potential Bearish Continuation Amid Economic IndicatorsFollowing the successful attainment of our profit target in the demand area, the GBP/USD currency pair has shown a modest recovery, reclaiming some ground from the 1.2400 level. As this article is being written, the price has retraced into a prior supply zone situated around 1.2541. This development indicates a potential resistance area where the pound may struggle to maintain its upward momentum.
As we move into the latter part of the day, market participants will be intently focused on significant economic reports from the United States, specifically the ISM Services PMI for December and the JOLTS Job Openings data for November. These reports are crucial in gauging the health of the US economy, particularly in the services sector, which has a substantial impact on overall economic performance.
The ISM Services PMI is anticipated to provide valuable insights into business conditions, and a reading that falls below 50 could suggest contraction in the sector. Such a scenario may trigger renewed selling pressure on the USD, potentially offering some support to the GBP/USD pair. On the other hand, if the report shows a strong uptick, it could further solidify the USD's position.
In tandem with the PMI, the JOLTS Job Openings report will also be closely examined. A decline in job openings might indicate a softening labor market, adding further downward pressure on the dollar. However, a notable rise in job openings could bolster confidence in the labor market and affirm the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining its current monetary policy stance, providing added strength to the USD.
Given the current price action and the anticipated economic data, our outlook leans toward a potential bearish continuation for the British Pound. As the market digests this key information, we are likely to see an increase in dollar strength, which would further challenge the GBP/USD pair. Traders and investors should remain vigilant in monitoring these developments, as the interplay between the pound and the dollar will be critical in shaping the currency pair's next movements.
Previous Forecast:
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GBPUSD | 09.01.2025BUY 1.22800 | STOP 1.22200 | TAKE 1.23600 | The pound is losing ground during the Asian session on January 9, developing a strong "bearish" momentum formed last Tuesday and working out the mark of 1.23210 today to break down. We expect a corrective upward movement of the price to consolidate the trend of movement.
The focus of British investors' attention is on retail price statistics from the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC): in December, the index fell by 1.0% after -0.6% earlier, not justifying preliminary calculations of -0.4% and signaled a weakening of price pressure in the UK.
Potential bullish reversal?The Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.2067
1st Support: 1.1867
1st Resistance: 1.2321
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GBPUSD D1 I Bullish Bounce Off?Based on the daily chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 1.2074, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibo projection
Our take profit is set at 1.2308, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1846, which is below 100% Fibo projection, providing room for price fluctuations while maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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$GBPUSD Smashes 500 to 1000 PIPS– Ready for the Next Power Move?FX:GBPUSD pair has delivered an epic performance, locking in a massive +1000 PIPS on the whole swing and +562 PIPS on the half swing! After smashing through +250 pips in the latest move, the big question arises: what's next for the Wave Swingers?
With precision setups and powerful momentum, we analyze the next potential opportunities in this explosive trend.
Stay patience & focused for the next wave of dominance!
> All Trade setups provided advanced in time on IDEAS & MINDS.
Weekly FOREX Forecast Jan 13, 2025This is an outlook for the week of Jan 13-17th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD is still strong, so no reason to sell in the near term. With price at Monthly and Weekly
Supply levels, we have to proceed with caution in the near term. The bias is still bullish until the market gives us a HTF bearish break of structure.
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May profits be upon you.
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GBP/USD IS BEARISH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Cable is 100% bearish. On a monthly,weekly and daily perspective she is bearish. We will be looking for sells however we do see some buying opportunities located around 1.19 and above. For sellers we are seeing them primarily in control with no signs of reversal. The goal here for the account is to focus heavy on the continuation and to utilize our gains wisely. This year will be a year where I will be focusing on account builds (small to big). This compound skill is a skillset that is worth multi millions and if learned correctly will literally separate you from 99% of traders. The key from what it seems in my research is finding the right timing and scaling into the bigger overall move with intra day positions. Another way is to effectively focus on % gain wins w/ a decent weekly hit rate. Both are scenarios in which require the trader to understand the asset of choice like the back of their hand.
Another goal of mine this year will be finally tackling the prop firm space. Now this particular space to me screams red flags due to the lack of reliability and the casino effect tied to all prop firms world wide. In short, the casino effect reflects on how hard these prop firms will be towards profitable traders. They can create rules and eliminate winning trades because of some made up rule they decided to implement. To me, that is one of the biggest issues I have and people playing with hard earned money is a huge no for me and to make matters worse, all these accounts we are paying for are demo accounts. However, I cant just ignore the space so to meet everything half way I will be purchasing the smallest account size available. Doing this, my investment towards their business model is minimal and the profits will be used to scale into the biggest account they have. This will also let my models prove to me they are ready to tackle space and effectively generate weekly % gains in order to even consider investing into any prop firm.
Other than that, GBP/USD is bearish and we are ready to push our models in order to facilitate the upcoming plays. As always, trade safe.
Mr.Oazb
EURAUD - Start 2025 with a BIG Win!EURAUD has given us a fantastic opportunity to get in at the very start of a BIG move.
We are currently in an ABC correction. We'e completed waves A and B and now currently in wave C. We're expecting 5 waves from wave C and looks as if we've completed wave 1 and currently in wave 2. We're looking to catch the rest of the move on the break of the trendline.
Trade Idea:
- Safe entry on break of trendline
- Riskier entry within the fibs or anywhere below invalidation
- stops above invalidation
- Targets: 1.6 (700pips), 1.156 (1100pips)
- Taper as we move lower
What do you guys think?
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!