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GBPUSD

A Weaker pound? 1. Baseline Scenario - Macro-Fundamental Bias Dovish. The Bank of England has cut rates by 25bps to 4.75%, with expectations of further cuts due to slowing inflation. Markets are pricing in two 25bps cuts by the end of 2025 with a 92% chance of a third 25bps cut, dispite the Labour Government's fiscal policy expected to be reflationary. There is also a 15% chance of a 25bps rate cut in December. - Short Term Sentiment Bias : Neutral. The pound is moving flat on an index level, indicating no strong short-term sentiment driving the price. 2. Risk Event Baseline - Event Description : Upcoming UK GDP data releases. - Monthly GDP (m/m) forecast: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%). - Preliminary GDP (q/q) forecast: 0.2% (previous: 0.5%). - Market Expectations : Markets are anticipating a slowdown in economic growth, with the preliminary GDP forecast significantly lower than the previous quarter. 3. Surprise Scenarios: - Negative Surprise: - Plan: If GDP data misses forecasts, reinforce bearish positions on GBP pairs. A weaker-than-expected GDP print could act as a catalyst for further pound selling, aligning with the dovish macro outlook and expectations of additional rate cuts.
Short
by Midas_Macro
1
USDJPY - 3 Massive Swings Completed. 4th Swing Ready...USDJPY has been providing us with big swing opportunities. Our last public post resulted in a 1200pip take profit! We are now on the verge of getting our 4th big swing setup. We are in a 5 wave impulse at the moment, indicating that we are in a Wave A (of wave 2) as opposed to a wave 2. This is why we are anticipating price to create an abc correction for wave 2 in the form of 535 zigzag. Trade Setup: - Watch for rejection of the fib level - Confirmation can be the break of the red trendline or any other reversal signs such as BOS - Targets: 148 (950pips), Hold position and taper as we move lower We'll update this setup if we get enough engagement. Goodluck and as always, trade safe! Trade 1: Trade 2: Trade 3: Trade 3 VIP Setup:
by WicktatorFX
7
GBP/USD Weakens Around 1.2665 as USD Gains MomentumAs I write, the GBP/USD pair continues to decline, currently hovering near the 1.2665 mark. The recent rally in the US Dollar has driven it to its highest level since November 2023, exerting pressure on the currency pair. Later today, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to address the market, which could influence further movements. Recent data from the US Department of Labor Statistics indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year in October, aligning with market expectations. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.3% year-on-year, also meeting forecasts. These figures have led analysts to believe that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its course for potential rate reductions at their upcoming December meeting. However, concerns are growing over former President Trump’s proposals to impose higher tariffs on imports, which could stoke inflation. This scenario might compel the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary easing strategy. Given the recent CPI data, it appears the US is making only moderate progress in controlling inflation, suggesting fewer interest rate cuts might be on the table for next year. Such dynamics are reinforcing elevated US Treasury yields, further bolstering the value of the USD across the board. From a technical standpoint, there are two key demand zones to monitor. Recent activity suggests that institutional investors are positioning for long opportunities, and seasonal trends appear to support this outlook. Patience will be crucial as traders await a consistent rebound in either of these two demand areas before considering long positions. For now, the USD is likely to maintain its strength against the GBP and other currencies. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
3
GBPUSD - Is inflation under control in America?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If the downward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. In case of an upward correction, this currency pair can be sold within the specified supply zones. The Governor of the Bank of England noted that the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not accurately indicate whether underlying inflation dynamics have been suppressed. There remains a risk of rising energy prices, and inflation within the services sector is notably resilient and persistent. He anticipates greater volatility ahead, with some inflationary drivers potentially shifting upwards. Additionally, according to new data from the Cleveland Federal Reserve, the inflation trend in the U.S. continues to remain above 2 percent. The Median CPI for the previous month was reported at 4.09 percent, a slight increase from 4.08 percent in the prior month. Since June, this measure has only seen a minor decline, from 4.15 percent to the current level. Median CPI is a monthly inflation indicator that measures price changes at the midpoint of a basket of goods. Although this method may differ from the standard CPI, it focuses on items that fall within the midpoint of the distribution. Charts within this report show that other inflation indicators are relatively stabilized, while the decline in the headline CPI is primarily due to a drop in energy prices, which is considered a temporary factor. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, despite ongoing challenges, debt levels remain manageable. Although delinquency rates have risen, income growth continues to outpace household debt growth. In the third quarter, delinquency transition rates varied, with credit card delinquencies improving, while delinquency rates for auto loans and mortgages saw a decline. At the end of Q3, 3.5 percent of debt was in some stage of delinquency, up from 3.2 percent in Q2. Overall delinquency rates also increased during this period. According to the data, credit card balances in Q3 rose 8.1 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching $1.17 trillion, marking an increase of around $24 billion from Q2. Additionally, mortgage balances increased by $75 billion in this period, reaching $12.59 trillion.
Long
by Ali_PSND
XAU/USD : CPI is coming, Bull or Bear ?Analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after entering the highlighted demand zone, gold has delivered a return of over 270 pips so far and is currently trading around $2611. It’s important to note that today we have the CPI data release, which could significantly impact gold prices. If the CPI figures come in higher than expected, we’re likely to see further declines in gold, and vice versa if the data comes in lower. Key demand zones remain at $2586-$2593 and $2555-$2562, while important supply zones are $2610, $2619-$2626, and $2643. Additionally, the recent sharp declines in gold have created several liquidity gaps, marked in purple on the chart, which are expected to be filled in the medium term as the price recovers. Stay cautious and keep an eye on these levels, as well as the CPI announcement, for potential trading opportunities! The Last Analysis : Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
66
GbpUsd near a very important pointAt the beginning of the month, GBP/USD made several unsuccessful attempts to reclaim the 1.30 level. Following these attempts, the pair saw a strong decline and is now trading below 1.27. However, GBP/USD is approaching a crucial point on the chart, and a potential reversal may be imminent. As shown in the posted chart, this zone is shaped by three key factors: the ascending trendline from a previously broken triangle, a descending trendline indicating a retest, and two important horizontal support levels. Additionally, with the DXY possibly nearing a correction , this could present buying opportunities in “cable.” My target for a potential reversal is the 1.2850 area.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 14, 2024 GBPUSDGBP/USD extends its decline to 1.26850 in Asian trading hours on Thursday. The US dollar (USD) rally to the highest level since November 2023 is putting pressure on the major pair. Later on Thursday, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech. Data released by the US Department of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations, rising 2.6% year-on-year in October. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, rose 3.3% y/y in October, matching the forecast. Markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue cutting rates at its next meeting in December. “The Consumer Price Index offered no surprises, so for now the Fed will continue to cut rates in December. However, next year is a different story given the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and other Trump administration measures,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Fed officials remain cautious about cutting rates. On Wednesday, Dallas Fed Chairwoman Laurie Logan said the U.S. central bank should be cautious about further interest rate cuts so as not to inadvertently ignite inflation. In addition, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said stagnant inflation figures make it difficult for the U.S. central bank to cut rates further. Traders are raising bets on another quarter percent rate cut in December, albeit at a slower pace, before mid-2025. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPUSD D1 I Bullish Bounce off 78.6%?Based on the D1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 1.2553, which is a pullback support close to 78.6% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 1.2807, a pullback resistance. The stop loss will be placed at 1.2410, which is a pullback support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
1
GBP/USD extends losses as US inflation risesThe British pound continues to lose ground and is down for a fourth straight trading day. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2709, down 0.18% on the day. Earlier, the pound dropped below the 1.27 line for the first time since Aug. 8. US inflation has been on a prolonged downswing but that streak has ended. After decelerating for six straight months, headline CPI for October rose to 2.6% y/y, up from 2.4% in September. The US dollar has responded with modest gains against the major currencies. Monthly, headline CPI was unchanged at 0.2%, in line with expectations. The core rate was unchanged in October, at 3.3% annually and 0.3% monthly, which matched expectations. The jump in inflation may not have been a surprise, but market rate-cut odds have jumped sharply. Just a day ago, the markets had priced in a 58% probability of a cut in December, but this has surged to 82% currently, according to CME’s FedWatch. Inflation is largely contained but by no means defeated. The Federal Reserve has waged a tough battle and is no mood to see inflation rebound. The next inflation report will be released just one week ahead of the Dec. 18 rate meeting and if inflation again moves higher, it’s possible that the Fed will respond with an oversized 50-basis point cut. Another headache for the Federal Reserve could be the Trump election win, with the Republicans winning the Senate and likely the House of Representatives. The incoming Trump administration represents an upside risk to inflation, as President-elect Trump has promised sweeping tariffs on imports, notably China and Europe. If Trump makes good on his tariff threat, goods imported into the US will become more expensive which would boost inflation. That could complicate the Fed’s plans to continue trimming rates in 2025. There is resistance at 1.2781 and 1.2843 1.2685 and 1.2683 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EUR/USD : First Short, then LONG! (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around the 1.06 level. Since the previous analysis, it has dropped over 500 pips. I anticipate that the price will soon react positively to the 1.052 to 1.058 zone, potentially leading to a recovery of 40 to 300 pips.Keep an eye on these marked levels! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
26
GBP/USD : First Short, then LONG! (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the daily timeframe, we can observe that the price is experiencing a significant decline. I anticipate that this heavy drop will likely pause, at least temporarily, upon reaching the demand zone between 1.267 and 1.2735. This is a key area of interest, and I expect a potential return of 50 to 200 pips from this level. This analysis will be updated as necessary. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
33
GBPUSD - Macro Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 GBPUSD has been overall bullish from a long-term perspective, trading within the rising channel in green. Currently, GBPUSD is in a correction phase, trading within the falling red channel. Moreover, the 1.255 - 1.6 zone is a strong support 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the support zone and lower green trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As GBPUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
1
GBPUSD Will Move Higher! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for GBPUSD. Time Frame: 45m Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.274. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.278. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
Could the Cable reverse from here?The price is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.2734 1st Support: 1.2672 1st Resistance: 1.2816 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
GBPUSD M15 | Bullish Bounce Based on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 1.2735, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibo retracement Our take profit will be at 1.2791, a pullback resistance close to 61.8% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be placed at 1.2718, which is a swing-low support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
Understanding GBPUSDToday we will be taking a closer look at understanding GBPUSD . GBP -no global business -risk currency -more linked to the UK economy, politics, central banking USD -global business currency -safe haven globally -Petrodollar UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENCY PAIR -we have to understand that within this pair “ GBPUSD ” one is a “ risk ” currency ( GBP ). ( USD ) is a “ safe haven currency ” and is also known as the world reserve currency. During times of economic uncertainty our doubt , or during any periods of times where we have more $ strength, which can be induced by the FED central banking, interest rate hikes and so forth, we will always have the $ dominate, even if the other currency can have some short term strength. THE USD IS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY What does this mean? -this means that the majority of INTERNATIONAL business is denominated in USD. We can see this very relevant when we are looking at the OIL industry and how oil is always exchanged in USD. Hence the name “PETRODOLLAR”.
Education
by FxPocket