Massive Breakout in EUR/USD – Time to Ride the Trend?📊 EUR/USD Daily Technical Outlook – April 11, 2025
The euro-dollar pair (EUR/USD) continued its upward momentum on Friday, reaching a high of $1.1473 before closing at $1.1352. This movement reflects a significant appreciation of the euro, influenced by a weakening U.S. dollar amid escalating trade tensions and a selloff in U.S. Treasuries.
📈 Current Market Structure:
After consolidating earlier in the week, EUR/USD broke above key resistance levels, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The pair's movement suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, with investors seeking alternatives to the dollar.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels:
$1.1473: Immediate resistance. A break above this level could signal further bullish continuation.
$1.1500: Psychological resistance and a potential target for bulls.
$1.1600: A more substantial resistance area that could be tested if momentum continues.
🔸 Key Support Levels:
$1.1300: Recent support. A break below this level could indicate a short-term pullback.
$1.1200: Next significant support, representing a potential bounce point.
$1.1100: A critical support level that, if breached, could lead to a shift in market sentiment.
📐 Price Action Patterns:
The pair's recent breakout above previous resistance levels suggests a strong bullish trend. The formation of higher highs and higher lows supports this view. However, traders should watch for potential reversal patterns near resistance areas.
🧭 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Scenario: If EUR/USD breaks and holds above $1.1473, it could target $1.1500 and potentially $1.1600. Continued weakness in the U.S. dollar and positive Eurozone data would support this move.
❌ Bearish Scenario: Failure to sustain above $1.1300 may lead to a retest of $1.1200, with further declines possible toward $1.1100 if bearish momentum increases.
📌 Conclusion:
EUR/USD is exhibiting strong bullish momentum, breaking through key resistance levels. Traders should monitor upcoming economic indicators and geopolitical developments that may influence the pair's direction.
💬 What's your outlook for EUR/USD? Do you anticipate continued strength in the euro, or will the dollar regain its footing? Share your thoughts below!
Let me know if you'd like this analysis tailored for a specific platform or with additional details!
GBPUSD
Gold Closes the Week Strong – Breakout Toward $3300 Coming?📊 XAU/USD Daily Technical Outlook – April 11, 2025
Gold rebounded strongly during Friday’s session, climbing from early lows around $3,177 to reach a high of $3,237. This bounce followed a brief correction the day before, as buyers stepped back in near key psychological levels. The move was partially driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for safe-haven assets.
At the moment, gold is trading around $3,212, holding its gains firmly into the weekly close. The broader market remains bullish, with the uptrend still intact unless key supports are breached.
📈 Current Market Structure:
After Thursday’s pullback, Friday’s strong bullish candle suggests renewed momentum. Price is still moving within an ascending structure, and the sharp recovery could be an early signal of a continuation toward new highs.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels:
$3,237: Immediate resistance. Friday’s high. A break above this level could trigger further bullish continuation.
$3,280: Potential upside target if momentum continues.
$3,300: Psychological resistance and potential long-term target.
🔸 Key Support Levels:
$3,177: Intraday support. If gold pulls back again, this level may provide a bounce.
$3,150: Near-term support and a key structural level.
$3,095: Deeper support, marking the bottom of the previous breakout area.
📐 Price Action Patterns:
Friday's bullish engulfing candle signals strong buying pressure, especially after Thursday’s correction. If buyers defend current levels early next week, we may see a bullish continuation. However, failure to break $3,237 may trigger another consolidation phase.
🧭 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Scenario:
If gold breaks and holds above $3,237, this could trigger a move toward $3,280 or even $3,300. Buyers remain in control as long as price stays above $3,177.
❌ Bearish Scenario:
If gold fails to push above resistance and breaks below $3,177, we could see a retest of $3,150, and possibly deeper toward $3,095 if bearish momentum increases.
📌 Conclusion:
Gold showed resilience on April 11, recovering sharply from a brief dip and closing the week on a strong note. The market structure remains bullish, and a sustained break above resistance could lead to fresh all-time highs. Traders should continue to monitor geopolitical news and dollar strength for clues on short-term direction.
💬 What’s your take on gold heading into next week? Will bulls take control again, or are we in for more consolidation? Drop your thoughts below!
Let me know if you want a version ready for TradingView or with hashtags and emojis for social media!
GBP/USD 4H: Breakdown Brewing? Key Levels for Short Entries!GBP/USD 4-Hour Analysis
Technical Outlook — 11 April 2025
Current Market Condition:
GBP/USD on the 4-hour timeframe is showing signs of a potential short-term bounce as it trades around 1.3100. The price has recently moved above the 50-period EMA, indicating short-term bullish momentum, however nearing a death cross of 50EMA to 200MA. This will confirm bearish momentum.
Key Technical Highlights:
Price Action: The price has rallied from a recent low around 1.2700 and is now trading near 1.3100, above the 50-period EMA and 200 MA, signaling potential short-term buying interest.
Support and Resistance:
Resistance: Key resistance levels are identified at 1.3200 and 1.3300. The 200-period MA near 1.3150-1.3200 adds confluence to the first resistance zone.
Support: Key support levels below the current price are at 1.2900, 1.2700, and 1.2600, with 1.2900 being the nearest significant support.
Momentum Indicator: The stochastic oscillator at the bottom is heading in overbought territory signalling exhaustion.
Possible Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability):
If the price fails to break above resistance level around 1.3150-1.3200 and shows a rejection (e.g., a bearish candlestick pattern like a shooting star), the bearish bias is likely to persist.
A drop below the 50-period EMA and the recent swing low at 1.2900 could lead to further declines toward the 1.2700 support, with deeper support at 1.2600.
Bullish Scenario (Moderate Probability):
If the price sustains above the 50-period EMA and breaks through the resistance level of 1.3200 with a strong 4-hour candlestick close, it could signal a short-term bullish move.
A confirmed break above 1.3200 may lead to a test of the next resistance at 1.3400, supported by the upward momentum in the oscillator.
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Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
Pound Gains on Dollar Softening, GBP/USD at $1.30The pound extended gains to $1.30 for a third session, as the dollar softened following Trump’s 90-day tariff pause for most countries. However, the 145% hike on Chinese goods kept risks elevated. While volatility persists, traders now expect 66 bps of BoE rate cuts this year, down from 79 bps a day earlier. UK GDP is forecast to grow 0.1% in February, suggesting a slow recovery.
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3050, resistance levels are at 1.3100 and 1.3200. Support is at 1.2960, followed by 1.2900 and 1.2850.
GBPUSD potential buy zone in inverted head & shoulder!GDP in GBPUSD had spike in actual value with the forecast has boost in this pair. Prior to data release this instrument had a break of structure has given strong liquidity grab as it has broken from long term trend line. As the market structure remain intact we may see the price to bounce back to the daily resistance line. 15m timeframe already has formed an inverted head & shoulder which signaling potential breakout. Any liquidity grab may give us potential entry in this lower timeframe.
GBP/USD at a Crossroads: Imminent Breakout or Bull Trap?The weekly chart of GBP/USD shows a strong recovery following the late-April correction, which brought the price down to a key demand zone between 1.2550 and 1.2600. The bounce was sharp and decisive, but the pair is now facing resistance between 1.3000 and 1.3150 — a previously sold area marked by a visible supply block in red.
The current weekly candle reflects a bullish reaction, but the overall structure suggests a potential exhaustion zone for upward momentum. Price action reveals a series of lower highs in the short term, and while the RSI is bouncing, it remains far from overbought, hinting that this move may be just a technical rebound.
From a trading perspective, a confirmed weakness around the 1.3000–1.3150 zone could offer short opportunities with an initial target near 1.2700 and, if extended, down to 1.2550 — a key dynamic support area. On the flip side, a clean breakout above 1.3150 with strong volume and a weekly close would open the door for a new bullish leg toward 1.3300–1.3400.
Conclusion: GBP/USD is currently at a critical juncture. The next directional move will depend on how price reacts to this resistance zone: a confirmed rejection could trigger renewed selling pressure, while a confirmed breakout may reignite the bullish trend.
GBPUSD H4 | Bearish Fall Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is testing our sell entry at 1.3013, which is a pullback resistance aligning with the 61.8% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 1.2909, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.3165. a swing high resistance.
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GBPUSD. Stubborn Bulls.. 4/10 10:15pm.Hello everyone so this is my analysis over the past couple hours. I mean you guys can obviously see GBPUSD bullish. Let's dive a bit deeper into what's really happening...
Fundamentals: I'm seeing stronger GBP data coming into focus for Friday, April 11, 2025. Recent reports show that the UK's trade figures are working in its favor—for example, the non‑EU Goods Trade Balance improved from –£7.07B to –£6.7B, and the GDP MoM for February turned positive at 0.1% (up from –0.1%). Meanwhile, the overall GB Goods Trade Balance has also slightly improved. On the U.S. side, the latest reports (like a PPI MoM at 0.2% and lower Michigan Consumer Sentiment) point to some softness. For me, these fundamentals add extra conviction to a bullish view on GBP/USD because the UK economic data is beating expectations while the U.S. signals are lagging.
OHLC and Price Action: Looking over the hourly charts from today, I've observed that the price has been trading in a relatively narrow band—oscillating between about 1.286 and 1.299. Earlier in the session, there were strong upward moves (with notable gains around 10:00–11:00), but then at 15:00 I saw a pronounced pullback when the candle closed at 1.29375 after touching as high as 1.2979. Later, around 22:00, a bullish candle closed near 1.29876 with a +22.9 pips move, indicating that while buyers stepped in, the market remains choppy. This oscillation tells me that even though the long-term trend appears bullish, the near-term price action is showing signs of overextension and profit-taking.
Technical Indicators: My technical indicators paint a mixed picture. On higher timeframes (1‑hour and above), moving averages like the EMA, DEMA, and KAMA confirm that the overall trend is bullish. However, key support levels—like the HT_TRENDLINE (around 1.28267) and the Stop and Reverse level (about 1.29081)—are well below the current price of approximately 1.29807. This means that, relative to these supports, the price is overextended. Other indicators, like the 1‑hour RSI (hovering near 52) and the MACD, are fairly neutral, but the ATR (around 0.005) confirms that today's volatility is higher than normal. Short-term oscillators and candlestick patterns (such as bearish engulfing or pin bars on the 15‑minute chart) become critical for spotting a reversal signal.
My Overall View and Trade Strategy: Putting it all together, I’m keeping my bullish outlook on GBP/USD in the long run due to the favorable fundamental environment in the UK versus the U.S. On a technical level, however, the price appears overextended based on the OHLC action and indicator readings. I’m watching for clear reversal signals—the formation of a decisive bearish pattern around the 1.292–1.290 range would be my cue. If that happens, I’d close my current bullish trade and consider opening a short position, targeting a move down toward the 1.278–1.281 support area.
GBPUSD analysis as of 4/10 3:19pm Mind you, i still have a bullish trade going from my previous long trade.. I removed my take profit yesterday and im continuing to monitor the market. but as for now these are the numbers we are looking at.
The market has really overextended itself—prices are at levels that feel too high compared to the earlier consolidation. On the 1‑hour, 4‑hour, and daily charts, I’m spotting clear bearish signals (like the bearish bet-hold patterns, closing marubozu, bearish engulfing, and even hikkake formations) that suggest sellers might soon step in. Even though the higher timeframes still hold an overall bullish bias, these short-term resistance patterns are warning me that the rally may be topping out.
Given this, my plan is to close out my bullish trade as soon as I get confirmation of a reversal. I’m watching for a clear candlestick signal—a bearish engulfing pattern, a pin bar, or any strong rejection on the lower timeframe (say the 15‑minute or even a confirming close on the 1‑hour) around the 1.293–1.290 area. Once I see that confirmation, I’ll lock in my profits from the bullish trade and then pivot to a sell. I’d target my short entry near that level, with a stop-loss just above recent highs (around 1.296–1.297), aiming for a retracement toward the previous support zone (around 1.278–1.281).
In short: I’ll close my bullish position when the price clearly shows it’s reversing from these overextended, overbought highs, and then I’ll open a sell trade to take advantage of the expected short-term pullback. This approach lets me protect my gains and capitalize on the bearish signals emerging from the chart.
Bearish reversal?GBP/USD is risng towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3009
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3106
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.2875
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Analysis of the Trend of the GBPUSDThe GBPUSD is currently showing a gradually rising trend. An important support level is 1.28850, which is the lower boundary of the current range. Once it is broken below, it may suggest a reversal of the trend to a bearish one. Before that, we should still mainly choose to go long and use short selling as a supplement.
GBPUSD trading strategy
buy @:1.29200-1.29300
sl 1.28850
tp 1.29750-1.29850
If you approve of my analysis, you can give it a thumbs-up as support. If you have different opinions, you can leave your thoughts in the comments.Thank you!
GBP/USD Breakdown Incoming? Bearish Setup Unfolding!Hi traders! Analyzing GBP/USD on the 1H timeframe, spotting a potential rejection at the descending trendline:
🔹 Entry: 1.29660
🔹 TP: 1.28652
🔹 SL: 1.30650
Price is reacting to the descending trendline after testing a key resistance zone. This level has acted as dynamic resistance in the past, and price shows signs of rejection.
The RSI is in the overbought area, suggesting a possible pullback. If the bearish momentum confirms, we could see a clean move back down to the previous support levels.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Every trader must evaluate their own risk and strategy.
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GBPUSD TRADE SETUPPotential Trade Setup on GBPUSD
The price has successfully retested a very strong support after the 3-week rally it exhibited in March.
However there has been little to no pullback after the rally, and currently, it is firing a possible divergence at 1.2970
The price is developing, and I am waiting for a break below the support area at 1.2960 to take a possible short-term sell trade.
A BUY opportunity is at the bottom of the 50% fib at 1.2700.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Trade Responsibly!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading
Gbpusd signal buy GBP/USD tested higher on Wednesday, climbing back over the 1.2800 handle after broad-market sentiment recovered across the board. The Trump administration has once again pivoted away from its own “no exceptions, no delays” tariff policy, and has again delayed tariffs, this time for 90 days.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 50 despite the latest rebound, suggesting that buyers remain reluctant to commit to a steady recovery in Pound Sterling.
Gbpusd signal buy
I've been tracking the GBPUSD, and here's where I stand 12:10pmCurrent Price & Overextension: The price is currently at 1.29380, which is still well above the recent consolidation range of 1.281–1.285. This tells me the market remains overextended, suggesting that the strong rally may be due for a pullback.
Technical Snapshot: On the 1‑hour chart, my moving averages—such as the EMA, DEMA, and KAMA—are aligned near the price, confirming that the broader uptrend is intact. However, oscillators like the RSI, which is around 75, and the StochRSI sitting at 100, indicate that the market is extremely overbought. These overbought conditions make me anticipate a short‑term reversal.
Directional & Volatility Factors: The directional indicators still point to bullish momentum (with the PLUS_DI notably higher than the MINUS_DI), but the recent surge seems impulsive when I compare the price to the established support zone. With an ATR around 0.00538, I see that the price has moved significantly for the range, suggesting that a retracement is likely.
My Trade Setup: Given this setup, I’m watching for clear rejection signals—like a bearish engulfing pattern or a firm pin bar—around the upper levels of the range, roughly between 1.292 and 1.290. If I see these reversal signals, I'll plan to enter a short position with a tight stop just above recent highs (around 1.296–1.297). My profit target would be set toward the consolidation zone around 1.278–1.281, which offers me a favorable risk/reward ratio.
Fundamental Backdrop: Recent fundamental news, particularly the conflicting tariff policies, has spurred significant volatility. This volatility, combined with the technical overextension, reinforces my expectation that the current upward move is unsustainable in the short term.
In short, even though the overall trend remains bullish, the pair's current overbought condition and extreme price levels signal an impending short-term pullback. I'm getting ready to take advantage of that temporary reversal with careful, tight risk management.
Still pending clear confirmationPrice Action Overview:
From 1:00 AM to 10:00 AM today, I see the price steadily rising from around 1.2829 to a current close of about 1.29131. The 10:00 candle even touched a high of 1.29248. This sequence suggests that the market is testing the upper bound of the recent consolidation range.
Consolidation and Potential Overextension:
Although the movement from roughly 1.282 up to 1.292 is relatively tight, I interpret this as the price moving near the top of its recent consolidation zone. In earlier analysis, I identified the 1.281–1.285 region as a base, and a rally above that, especially reaching near 1.292, indicates that the move might be overshooting its sustainable range. This aligns with my view that the rally is overextended and a pullback could be imminent.
Candlestick Insights and Intraday Reversal Clues:
Looking at these recent candles, I notice that while the 10:00 candle closed with an upward gain (+21.8 pips) and the 9:00 candle also posted an upward move (+22.3 pips), the overall pattern shows modest moves with small bodies, suggesting that buyers are active but perhaps not strongly in control. There’s also that slight dip at 1:00 AM (a -15.0 pip move) which hints at the underlying volatility and potential exhaustion. These factors lead me to believe that the recent rally may be unsustainable.
Indicator and Fundamental Context Reinforced:
My previous analysis—supported by an overbought RSI reading on the 1‑hour and the overall bearish technical patterns (like the bearish marubozu and long-line bearish candles) on lower timeframes—remains valid. The fresh fundamental news adding volatility likely contributed to this impulsive rally, and now the market appears to be testing its high without much conviction.
What I’m Watching and the Trade Setup Going Forward:
Given this recent data, I’m focused on the area between 1.292 and 1.290. If I see a clear reversal pattern (for example, a bearish engulfing candle or a pin bar developing on the 15‑minute chart around these levels), that would confirm my expectation of sellers stepping in.
I’d look to enter a short position around 1.292–1.290, with a stop-loss set just above the current high (around 1.296–1.297) to account for typical volatility. This approach is consistent with targeting a move down toward support in the 1.278–1.281 range, offering a favorable risk/reward ratio.
XAU/USD: Ready for another Fall? (READ THE CAPTION)By examining the gold chart on the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that yesterday the price once again moved exactly as expected, hitting all four targets: $3022, $3016, $3010, and $3000, and even dropped further to $2956, resulting in a total return of over 700 pips!
Currently, gold is trading around $3003, and if the price stabilizes below $3014, we can expect further downside.
All key demand and supply zones are marked on the chart and are fully tradable.
If the drop continues, the next bearish targets will be $2997, $2991, $2984, and $2976, respectively.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
GBPUSD My analysis for 4/10 8:55am. I’ve analyzed all the information—the price action, indicators, candlestick patterns, and the fresh fundamental news—and here’s why I believe this trade is compelling:
Overextension and Price Structure: Right now, the price is at 1.29490, which is significantly higher than the recent consolidation range of 1.281–1.285. This tells me that the market has pushed far beyond its comfort zone—a classic setup for a reversal pullback. I recognize this overextension as a warning sign that the rally might be overdone, especially when I consider the intraday price structure.
Candlestick Patterns and Timeframe Confluence: On the 1‑hour and 15‑minute charts, I’m seeing strong bearish candlestick formations like bearish marubozu and long-line bearish candles. These patterns show that sellers have been in control, and they typically indicate a clean, unimpeded move to the downside when a reversal begins. Even though there are some mixed signals on the weekly charts (with dojis and uncertain high waves suggesting indecision), the microstructure on the shorter timeframes tells me there's immediate selling pressure that I can exploit.
Indicator Confirmation: I’m also paying close attention to my indicators. The RSI on the 1‑hour chart is around 71, pushing into overbought territory, which signals that the upward momentum has likely peaked. Directional indicators, including the PLUS_DI versus MINUS_DI, further support a bias toward a corrective move downward. The ATR of approximately 0.00538 gives me a concrete measure of volatility, which I can use to set a well-defined stop-loss.
Fundamental Catalyst: The market’s recent surge has been partly driven by fresh fundamental news—contrasting tariff policies where the U.S. has relaxed tariffs while China hikes them. This divergence has spurred a burst of volatility and risk-off behavior. I see this fundamental news as amplifying the current overextension; the initial rally was impulsive, and now the fundamentals back the idea that the move isn’t sustainable.
Trade Setup and Risk Management: Based on this confluence, I plan to wait for a clear reversal signal on the lower timeframes—a bearish engulfing candle or a pin bar, ideally forming around 1.292–1.290. That’s when I would enter a short position. I’d set my stop-loss just above the recent highs (around 1.296–1.297) to accommodate normal volatility, as indicated by my ATR. For my profit target, I’m aiming for the support level around 1.278–1.281, which provides me with a favorable risk/reward ratio.
In summary, I believe this trade is attractive because the current price is clearly overextended relative to a recent consolidation, and the technical indicators (including bearish candlestick patterns and an overbought RSI) confirm that sellers have the upper hand in the short term. Coupled with the fundamental catalyst driving uncertainty, it makes sense for me to target a reversal pullback. Waiting for that confirmation around 1.292–1.290 with tight risk controls gives me confidence that I’m entering a high-confluence trade with strong downside potential.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for GBPUSD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.2924
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.2858
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
DeGRAM | GBPUSD has reached a support levelGBPUSD is in a descending channel between the trend lines.
The price has already reached the lower trend line and support level.
The indicators on the 1H Timeframe are forming a bullish convergence.
We expect a rebound after the retest and fixing the chart above $1.271
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GBPUSD INTRADAY bullish continuation above 1.2765 support GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias, with the broader trend and structure supporting upside continuation. The recent intraday move appears to be a corrective pullback toward a key prior consolidation area.
Key Support: 1.2765 – aligns with the previous consolidation zone and potential bullish inflection point.
Upside Targets:
1.2935 – initial resistance level
1.2985 and 1.3026 – medium to long-term bullish targets
If price finds support at 1.2765 and forms a bullish reversal, it would confirm the continuation of the uptrend toward the mentioned resistance levels.
However, a break and daily close below 1.2765 would invalidate the bullish scenario, suggesting deeper retracement toward 1.2688, with further support at 1.2632 and 1.2600.
Conclusion
GBP/USD remains bullish above 1.2765. Look for a bounce from this level to confirm upside continuation. A daily close below 1.2765 would turn the outlook bearish, exposing lower support levels.
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