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GBP/USD spikes to 1.3230 but then dropsGBP/USD spikes to 1.3230 but then drops A release of better than expected growth rate of the UK Manufacturing Production created an upside momentum that enabled the pair to return back to the 1.3228 level. However, then fears of growing political risk in Britain and Trump’s participation in the ASEAN summit strengthen the buck and dragged the exchange rate to support area near the 1.3120 mark. On the one hand, the further road to the bottom is obstructed by the lower support line and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. However, if the current bearish pressure continues this barrier may not sustain. In that case, the cable is going to test the next support zone lying around the weekly S1 at 1.3090. It should be noted that recovery of the Pound also looks unlikely, due to pressure from the falling 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD forms ascending triangle patternGBP/USD forms ascending triangle pattern During the previous trading session the currency rate expectedly returned back to the 1.3110 mark, which represents location of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. As this barrier was additionally backed up by the 55-hour SMAs, it made a rebound. However, the fact that the cable failed to climb above the 50% retracement level at 1.3180 two times in a row as well existence of a slope that lies along rising 55-hour SMA indicates on existence of a minor ascending triangle pattern. If this assumption is true, then the pair is likely to make a breakout to the top already by the end of the day due to existence of combined support barrier formed by above 55- and 100-hour SMAs, the 38.2% retracement level and the weekly PP at 1.3150.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD stuck at monthly S1 at 1.3073GBP/USD stuck at monthly S1 at 1.3073 Initially, the Pound tried to restore some and even used a momentum provided by release of better than expected UK Services PMI to climb to the 1.3107 mark. However, the subsequent release of positive American data neutralized this attempt and returned the pair back to the monthly S1 at 1.3073. Unless traders receive some clear signal the currency rate might continue moving in such indecisive manner for some while. Nevertheless, a pressure from the 100-day SMA on a daily chart is likely to push the pair down even further. Although an attempt to surge to the 55-hour SMA is possible, but eventually it is still expected to slip to support area near the 1.3030 mark.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD approaches weekly PP at 1.3160GBP/USD approaches weekly PP at 1.3160 Friday’s trading session was significant for two reasons. On the one hand, the cable managed to break through the lower trend-line of the senior ascending channel. On the other hand, it failed to slip below the 1.3090 mark, which correlates with location of the bottom boundary of an alleged larger, dominant ascending channel. Such outcome allows assuming that this pattern will be strong enough to block another attempt of the pair to fall below the 1.3100 mark, following the general strengthening of the Dollar. At the same time, rapid recovery of the Pounds seems unlikely as well due to presence of a combined resistance set up by the weekly PP, the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. However, a release of better than expected fundamental data through the week might provide a necessary impulse to elevate the rate at least back to the 1.3200 level.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD inches higher amid GDP reportMorning outlook - GBP/USD inches higher amid GDP report According to the Office for National Statistics, the temps of growth of British economy spiked to 0.4% in the third quarter. This news gave the cable an upside momentum, which it used to break through the upper trend-line of a dominant descending channel. As there are no significant UK or US data releases planned for today, bulls might use this lull to elevate the pair to the weekly R1 at 1.3306. In support of this assumption, there is need to take into account that some of the Pound traders are simultaneously following the ECB meeting and are trying to push the Sterling in parallel with the Euro. On the other hand, bears might use an area between the 1.3285 and 1.3290 marks to either halt or even turnaround the pair.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD returns to 1.3200Morning outlook - GBP/USD returns to 1.3200 Despite a sharp fall after release of worse than expected data about the UK retail sales, the cable managed to bounce off from the bottom trend-line of a large ascending channel and by Monday morning restore lost positions returning back to the 1.32 level. However, the pair is not expected to climb higher this day, as the further road to the north is obstructed by a combination of the 200-hour SMA and the upper edge of a dominant descending channel, which has already managed to neutralize the surge couple of times. But even in the case of a breakthrough in weekly perspective the Pound is likely to lose value against the Dollar because of release of information on the UK Preliminary GDP, which might appear to be below the 0.3% growth rate.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD loses 100 points Morning outlook - GBP/USD loses 100 points Although inflation report matched with forecasts and Governor Carney once again admitted possibility of interest rate hike, the Pound lost almost 100 points against the Dollar just in couple of hours. Such keen reaction shows that the main investors’ concern is related to success of the Brexit talks. From technical perspective, the cable passed through the 200-hour SMA and now is facing to other support barriers on its way up until the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3145. In this sense, the pair is expected to continue to slip to the bottom. However, there is a need to take into account that after such sharp falls traders usually tend to restore lost positions, which means that an area near 1.326 might become a target once again (as long as market sentiment remains predominantly bullish).
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD fails to surge above 1.3320Morning outlook - GBP/USD fails to surge above 1.3320 Although the US data release, in general, appeared to be worse than expected, the upside momentum was not strong enough to push the pair above the monthly PP at 1.3322. The presence of a recently formed ascending channel whose bottom boundary is backed up by the rising 55-, 100-, 200-hour SMAs suggests that the currency rate most probably is going to break through that resistance and continue to move to the north. On the other hand, there are two large unconfirmed channels who boundaries are located near the 1.3330 mark and that might turnaround the pair. Finally, there is a need to take into account that this week will be full of the UK data releases, including inflation and retail sales, that are expected to have a notable impact on further direction of the pair.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD tries to cross 55-hour SMAMorning outlook - GBP/USD tries to cross 55-hour SMA Despite the release of better that expected American income data, the Greenback failed to exploit this fundamental background and eventually depreciated against the Pound. At the moment, the pair is going to start testing a combined resistance set up by the upper trend-line of a recently formed descending channel and the 55-hour SMA. As majority of traders remain bullish, the rate might briefly sneak to the top, trying to reach the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3145. However, an aggregate of technical indicators points out on the further downfall of the rate via sending strong sell signal. This direction seems evident also from larger perspective, as a couple of weeks ago the pair made a rebound from the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD trades around 55-hour SMAMorning outlook - GBP/USD trades around 55-hour SMA The British Pound is continuing to trade lose value against the American Dollar in a one-month-long descending channel. Despite a bunch of important macroeconomic data releases, the pair did not make any substantial advances yesterday. One of the reasons for that was the 55-hour SMA, which traders continuously used as a support and resistance. As a result, the pair ended previous trading session in the centre of the channel. Because of the bullish sentiment, traders are likely to try to push the rate to the upper edge of the pattern. However, the above 55-hour SMA once again might turnaround the pair and force it to slip to the weekly S1, which is located at the 1.3210.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD fails to break above 55- and 100-hour SMAsMorning outlook - GBP/USD fails to break above 55- and 100-hour SMAs In accordance with expectations, a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs as well as the former monthly R2 did not let the pair to make any notable advances on Friday. In fact, they continued to push it to the bottom, simultaneously forcing to form a minor symmetrical triangle. Due to release of a whole bunch of various fundamental data during this week, it is difficult to project how the pair is going to move. The only thing that can be said for sure is that the northern path is secured by numerous technical indicators, such as the 200-hour SMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3503. In addition to that, the pair has recently made a rebound from the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel. Hence, the gradual slip to the bottom remains a more plausible scenario.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD about to leave the falling wedgeMorning outlook - GBP/USD about to leave the falling wedge Contrary to expectations, the currency exchange rate did not make any significant moves yesterday and, for this reason, stayed in a falling wedge for additional day. However, the fact that the first four hours of this trading session were dominated by bears suggests that the pair is likely to leave the pattern in the southern direction. Such outcome is supported not only by the weekly S1 located at the 1.3412 level but also by the 55-hour SMA, which is moving precisely along the resistance line of the wedge. Although the pair might face a strong support in the area between the 1.3350 and 1.3328 marks, from a larger perspective the Greenback should continue to gain value against the Pound. In this sense, the medium-term target for the rate most probably will become an area near the 1.3208 level, which contains the monthly R1 and the weekly S3. In addition to that, it also represents a point, from which the pair started its rapid surge two weeks ago.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
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GBP/USD tries to restore lost positionsMorning outlook - GBP/USD tries to restore lost positions The speech delivered by Theresa May about post-Brexit relationship with the EU on Friday, indeed affected value of the Pound. Unfortunately, the effect was negative and the British currency just in one hour lost 79 points against the Dollar. Probably the best description of this situation was made by the German Foreign Minister who noted that the speech was vague and did not contain any concrete proposals. Accordingly, the rectangle pattern that formed in the beginning of previous week sustained and is likely to sustain today as well. On the one hand, the rate feels pressure from the 55- and 100-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP at 1.3536 that pushes it to the top. However, the expected target for today would be an area around 1.3585, but not the upper edge of the formation.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD advances by another 150 pointsMorning outlook - GBP/USD advances by another 150 points As it was expected, the Pound continued to appreciate against the US Dollar, following a speech delivered by the External BOE MPC Member Gertjan Vlieghe on Friday. At the moment, the currency rate is moving horizontally in a limbo between the monthly R3 at 1.3701 from the top and the monthly R2 at 1.3485 from the bottom. However, it should be noted that space between the current market price and the above two barriers amounts approximately to 100 pips in both directions. Most probably, the pair is going to continue to move horizontally until the moment when Governor Carney will start answering questions at the Central Banking Lecture hosted by the IMF at 15:00 GMT. Taking into account previous market reaction on similar two events last week, another sharp surge is likely to follow.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
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GBP/USD surges by 124 pips amid BoE decisionMorning outlook - GBP/USD surges by 124 pips amid BoE decision A decision of the Bank of England not to change the Official Bank Rate was expected to lead to sharp depreciation of the Pound. This assumption was based not only on historical market reaction on similar fundamental event but also technical analysis. Namely, on a daily chart prior to release the currency pair hit the upper edge of a long-term rising wedge and, in essence, had to make a rebound. Contrary to expectations, bulls pushed the pair in the opposite direction. As a result, the Pound has appreciated against the Greenback by 1.40% just in couple of hours, in the process leaving the dominant formation. Now the pair faces only two barriers on its way, i.e. the weekly and monthly R2 at 1.3425 and 1.3485. Thus, a short-term rebound might follow. But, generally, the pair is expected to continue to move to the top.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD to reach upper edge of dominant patternMorning outlook - GBP/USD to reach upper edge of dominant pattern Due to release of satisfying data on the UK CPI, the Pound got an upside momentum that helped it to cross the monthly R1 at 1.3208 and then continue the surge. In the early Wednesday morning the pair even managed to reach the weekly R1. Most probably, until a release of information on the UK Average Hourly Earnings the pair will continue to fluctuate around the 1.3310 level. Usually, the market reaction on this event amounts to 30-40 basis points. This means that if the released data will justify experts’ forecasts, the Sterling might finally reach the upper trend-line of a dominant ascending channel and then make a rebound. In the opposite scenario, the pair is likely to slip back to the 55-hour SMA and then continue the downfall.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD reaches monthly R1 at 1.3208Morning outlook - GBP/USD reaches monthly R1 at 1.3208 Due to positive numbers that were revealed during a release on the UK Manufacturing Production, the Pound caught an upside momentum that helped it to reach the monthly R1 at 1.1320. However, this barrier appeared to be strong enough to prevent the further surge. Given that the southern direction is secured by the 55-hour SMA and the updated weekly PP at 1.3110 as well as the approaching 100- and 200-hour SMAs, an extensive drop is not expected to follow. In contrast, these indicators will motivate the pair to try break to the top. Except for the above monthly R1 the next closest resistance barrier is located only at 1.3310. In addition, there is a need to take into account an existence of a larger ascending channel (tendency of the pair to surge to its upper boundary). Yet, these projections can be altered, as the Sterling is expected to be quite heavily affected by a number of data releases this week.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD fails to break through weekly R2Morning outlook - GBP/USD fails to break through weekly R2 Contrary to expectations, the Pound did move horizontally for long but instead tried to break through the weekly R1 at 1.3077. A reaction from release of information on the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was barely enough to neutralize this attempt. In result, today the pair remains squeezed between the weekly R2 from the top and the weekly R1 from the bottom. From a technical perspective, the southern direction contains other various barriers, such as the approaching 55- and 100-hour SMAs. In this sense, the further surge is a more likely scenario. In addition, today the Greenback will not have any fundamental events that could justify its extensive appreciation against the Sterling.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD gains 0.8%Morning outlook - GBP/USD gains 0.8% Shortly after a release of information on the UK Services PMI the Pound got a strong upside momentum and in the upcoming seven hours advanced by 0.8% against the Greenback. Most probably, the surge was based not only on this fundamental event but also on a combined effect from the 200-hour SMA and the lower support line of a rising wedge. But contrary to patterns theory, the currency pair managed break through the upper edge of an ascending channel that was additionally protected by the weekly R1 at 1.3015. After such extensive surges the exchange rate usually enters into a calm horizontal movement for some time and then the counter currency tries to restore some lost positions. Most likely today the buck will try to do the same, using an effect from release of the US ISM Non-Manufacturing.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD tries to break 1.2944Morning outlook - GBP/USD tries to break 1.2944 Fortunately for the Pound, the eight-hour downfall was stopped already near the 1.2880 level. Accordingly, the rest of the day the Sterling spent in a recovery against the US Dollar. By the moment, the pair has reached a combined resistance level set up by the weekly R1 at 1.2942 and the monthly S1 at 1.2944. From a daily chart perspective, the further surge seems unlikely. On the other hand, an extensive fall is not expected as well, as the southern side is secured by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly R1 at 1.2858. It is quite possible that the rate will stuck at the above resistance for some time. In this sense, a decisive signal is expected to be given by release of information on the US CB Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD tries to head to the northMorning outlook - GBP/USD tries to head to the north In line with expectations, an announcement of the Second Estimate GDP helped the Pound to slightly recover against the American Dollar. In result of the surge, the currency pair has reached the upper boundary of a senior descending channel, but then was forced to make a rebound. The fact that the pair has subsequently failed to slide through the weekly S1 at 1.2799 indicates that it might make a breakout to the top. However, even if it happens the further movement most likely will be neutralized either by the 100-, or the 200-hour SMA. But in the meantime, there is a need to take into account the impact that will be brought by the upcoming Janet Yellen speech.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBP/USD rebounds from weekly PP at 1.2910Morning outlook - GBP/USD rebounds from weekly PP at 1.2910 The latest developments in the GBP/USD currency pair forced to partially review the situation. On the one hand, the Pound expectedly rose and bounced off from the weekly PP at 1.2910. On the other hand, the subsequent fall through the 55- and 100-hour SMAs entails that the pair is rather moving in a rectangle or triple bottom formation that in the descending triangle. If the first assumption is true, the Pound has to eventually break through the 1.2846 level to the bottom and continue to move in a downtrend. This scenario seems rational since the 200-hour SMA is located way above the current market price. But if the second assumption is true, the pair should change the direction and start to move to the north.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GBPUSD remain bearish below major resistanceSell below 1.2933. Stop loss at 1.2988. Take profit at 1.2854. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Price continues to hold perfectly below our selling area. We remain bearish looking to sell below 1.2933 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to 1.2854 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing a very nice bearish exit signalling that a drop is impending.
Short
by MEX_Exchange