GBP/USD rebounds from weekly PP at 1.2910Morning outlook - GBP/USD rebounds from weekly PP at 1.2910
The latest developments in the GBP/USD currency pair forced to partially review the situation.
On the one hand, the Pound expectedly rose and bounced off from the weekly PP at 1.2910.
On the other hand, the subsequent fall through the 55- and 100-hour SMAs entails that the pair is rather moving in a rectangle or triple bottom formation that in the descending triangle.
If the first assumption is true, the Pound has to eventually break through the 1.2846 level to the bottom and continue to move in a downtrend. This scenario seems rational since the 200-hour SMA is located way above the current market price.
But if the second assumption is true, the pair should change the direction and start to move to the north.
Gbpusd1hr
GBPUSD remain bearish below major resistanceSell below 1.2933. Stop loss at 1.2988. Take profit at 1.2854.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price continues to hold perfectly below our selling area. We remain bearish looking to sell below 1.2933 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to 1.2854 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing a very nice bearish exit signalling that a drop is impending.
GBPUSD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sellSell below 1.2933. Stop loss at 1.2988. Take profit at 1.2854.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has shot up and reached our profit target perfectly. We prepare to sell below 1.2933 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to 1.2854 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing intermediate resistance at 85% where we expect a drop from.
GBPUSD approaching major support, prepare to buyBuy above 1.2830. Stop loss at 1.2791. Take profit at 1.2923.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price is approaching major support at 1.2830 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support) and we expect to see a nice bounce above this level to at least 1.2923 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing intermediate support above 21% where we expect further bullish movement.
GBP/USD: Weekly OverviewLast week we saw price break down and through price level of 1.24251 the next level we want to see a positive reaction is at 1.23656
At this level we want the 4HR and 1HR trend line to break in order to enter in the 15M chart, their is also a daily support level of 1.23570 that will also act as a confluence to trade this.
Will be patient and see what price gives us.
GBP/USD right at major resistance, remain bearishSell below 1.2531. Stop loss at 1.2621. Take profit at 1.2378.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price is testing major resistance at 1.2531 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance, descending resistance) and we expect to see a reaction from this level for a further drop to at least 1.2378 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below the 94% level where we hope to see a reaction from when Stochastic reaches that level.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing survey. It is one of the biggest market moving economic releases because of its Prices Paid and Employment subcomponents which reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. We’re expecting forecasts of a decrease which means a bearish USD is expected, this goes against our bearish GBPUSD view, hence it is best to exercise caution on this trade.
Brexit chapter 2and we will take that guys!
Well done to all those holding longs, not been a simple ride given the panic leg we have been experiencing.
Risk to my thesis is a very noisy week on the UK front, lets keep the conversation open here for all those trading this pair and discuss the macro side as well as TA.. it's very difficult to have conversations in the chat now as too many members.
Look forward to reading your comments and gl to all of those trading this week.
good spot for buyersMorning guys...
ahead of Hammond on the mic this Wednesday with the UK budget this is a great spot for buyers to come in. This is a very attractive level to get long, there is nothing from the fed this week so despite the huge repricing we saw over the past week with the probability of a hike edging on 80% we still saw the dollar close last week to the downside.
in the telegram group we got a good spot on usdjpy, this dollar weakness for the remainder of the week coincides well with the gbpusd long.
best of luck and please remember to give this idea a thumbs up if it's helped!
Cheeers
GBPUSD Strategic View: Turn bullish above strong supportBuy above 1.2415. Stop loss at 1.2250. Take profit at 1.2850.
Reason for the trading strategy:
We turn bullish above 1.2210 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension) for a push up to 1.2400 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 7.9% level where we hope to see a bounce from.
GBPUSD Seeing strong support, remain bullishBuy above 1.2415. Stop loss at 1.2250. Take profit at 1.2850.
Reason for the trading strategy:
Price is at our buying area once again as we remain bullish above 1.2415 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal overlap support) to play a bounce up to 1.2850 which is our long term resistance. From there, we can expect a bearish reaction. This is aided by the completion of a corrective structure we have just seen.
Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 8% level and has made a bullish exit and is approaching pullback support.
GBPUSD below major resistance, remain bearishSell below 1.2481. Stop loss at 1.2527. Take profit at 1.2390.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bearish below 1.2481 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, descending resistance) for a push down to 1.2390 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal support).
RSI (34) remains below long term descending resistance.
GBPUSD take our profits and turn bullishBuy above 1.2384. Stop loss at 1.2330. Take profit at 1.2521.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We close off our short position and lock in our profits from last week. We now turn bullish above 1.2384 support (horizontal support, Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension) for a push up to 1.2521 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
RSI (34) remains below long term descending line but also sees a short term ascending support potentially pushing price up on the intermediate term.
GBPUSD Weekly View: Remain bullish above major supportBuy above 1.2415. Stop loss at 1.2250. Take profit at 1.2850.
Reason for the trading strategy:
Price is approaching our buying area once again as we remain bullish above 1.2415 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal overlap support) to play a bounce up to 1.2850 which is our long term resistance. From there, we can expect a bearish reaction.
Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 8% level.
GBPUSD right on resistance, remain bearishSell below 1.2546. Stop loss at 1.2632. Take profit at 1.2356.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bearish below 1.2546 resistance (Fibonacci retracement horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to 1.2356 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, swing low support).
RSI (34) is seeing strong descending resistance holding price down.
GBPUSD right on resistance, remain bearishSell below 1.2546. Stop loss at 1.2632. Take profit at 1.2356.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bearish below 1.2546 resistance (Fibonacci retracement horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to 1.2356 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, swing low support).
RSI (34) is seeing strong descending resistance holding price down.
GBPUSD bouncing nicely, remain bullishBuy above 1.2433. Stop loss at 1.2330. Take profit at 1.2563.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
GBPUSD has touched our entry level and is bouncing nicely as expected. We remain bullish on GBPUSD above major support at 1.2433 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal overlap support) for a bounce up to 1.2563 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is bouncing nicely above strong support at 4% and displays bullish divergence vs price.
GBPUSD prepare to turn bullishBuy above 1.2433. Stop loss at 1.2330. Take profit at 1.2563.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We prepare to turn bullish on GBPUSD above major support at 1.2433 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal overlap support) for a bounce up to 1.2563 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is bouncing nicely above strong support at 4%.
Cable, sovereign debt crisis We are looking at a trend change in British pound so pay close attention to events ahead. A close above 12674 will be bullish and a close below 12200 will warn of possible decline.
A risk to see complete monetary reform as early as 2018 exists, the long term risk adjusted in real terms for inflation also remains a long term risk.
This market has remained bearish since the 28158 high in 1959. With no yearly bullish reversals from the major low in 1985 warning we remain in a bearish long term trend. This has warned that the overall trend of this market remains bearish since it has been unable to make higher highs.
Thanks, your likes and comments are much appreciated!