LONG GBP/USD — Trade IdeaLONG GBP/USD — Three Talking Points
Macro & Central-Bank Divergence
UK growth beats, retail sales jump and service-CPI re-accelerates to 5.4 % y/y. Markets have pushed BoE-cut odds to near-zero for June and just one 25 bp trim by year-end, while the Fed is still priced for two cuts in 2025.
IMF nudges 2025 UK GDP up to 1.2 %. In contrast, the dollar narrative is hampered by ballooning U.S. deficit worries and tariff-policy whiplash. Net policy path favours sterling over the dollar.
Technical Structure Remains Bullish
Price action is riding a January-origin ascending channel; Monday’s spike to 1.3600 set a new three-year high, but the pull-back stalled exactly where the 21-DMA, prior breakout shelf and channel floor cluster (mid-1.34s).
14-day RSI ≥ 60 yet still shy of overbought, signalling bullish momentum with room to run.
Holding the 1.3440/70 zone keeps the next leg toward 1.3600/1.3750 in play; only a daily close below 1.3370 would break the channel and negate the setup.
Event Risk Favouring Upside Skew
BoE speakers (Pill today, Bailey tomorrow) are likely to echo the “cautious & gradual” line—supportive, not dovish.
FOMC minutes may sound hawkish, but the market has largely heard it; any dovish nuance quickly re-ignites dollar selling.
Friday’s PCE vs. Tokyo CPI: a soft U.S. core PCE print alongside sticky Japan inflation would weigh on USDJPY and bleed into broader USD softness, lifting cable toward our T1/T2 objectives.
Gbpusd_forecast
GBP/USD Analysis: Price Searching for SupportGBP/USD Analysis: Price Searching for Support
In the second half of May, the British pound showed notable strength: from its 12 May low, GBP/USD climbed to a peak on 26 May — marking its highest level in over three years.
Demand for the pound has been driven by several factors:
→ A surge in inflation. CPI data released last Wednesday came in above expectations. As a result, market participants interpreted this as a reason for the Bank of England to remain cautious about cutting interest rates. Holding rates at elevated levels is generally considered bullish for the pound.
→ The pound’s relative resilience amid trade tensions, particularly following a newly signed agreement with the US, as well as strengthening trade ties between the UK and the EU.
Can the pound continue to rise? The GBP/USD chart offers reasons for doubt.
Technical Analysis of the GBP/USD Chart
Recent price movements have formed an ascending channel (outlined in blue), and earlier this week, demand was so strong that the pair briefly moved above the upper boundary. But what happened next?
That strong buying momentum appears to have faded — resulting in a sequence of lower highs (A→B→C→D), suggesting that the market may be searching for a foothold. Today’s bounce (highlighted by the arrow) hints that such a foothold may have been found. But how reliable is it? And can the uptrend be resumed?
→ From a bullish perspective: Support may be provided by the lower boundary of the channel, reinforced by the 1.345 level.
→ From a bearish perspective: The 1.352 level is acting as resistance, further strengthened by the median line.
It is possible that the area marked by lower highs (A→B→C→D) could ultimately prove to be an insurmountable barrier for the developing uptrend on the GBP/USD chart.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBPUSD Near Key Resistance – Watching for PullbackGBPUSD has surged to test the 1.3538 resistance, forming a strong impulsive rally supported by higher lows and tight bullish consolidation patterns. However, price is now pressing into a major horizontal resistance and rising trendline, setting up for either continuation or correction.
Key Levels:
Major Resistance: 1.35389 (previous high, potential double top)
Trendline Support: ~1.3440 (ascending structure)
Downside Target (if break occurs): 1.3140 (range floor)
Scenarios to Watch:
🔹 Bearish Scenario (Primary Watch)
Price reacts to 1.3538 and forms a rejection candle
Break of the ascending trendline may trigger a retracement
Downside target zones:
1.3440 (initial structure)
1.3140 (major support zone)
🔹 Bullish Breakout (Alternate Scenario)
Clean break and close above 1.3538
Would invalidate short-term correction and open path to new highs
Momentum continuation possible toward 1.3600–1.3700
Pattern Notes:
Bullish structure with minor flags and wedges in the uptrend
But rally is extended and hitting overbought territory near resistance
RSI divergence or reversal patterns around this level would strengthen short case
Conclusion:
📌 GBPUSD is at a major resistance. Watch for rejection or breakout.
📌 If it holds below 1.3538 and breaks trendline, short setup is favored.
📌 If it breaks out above 1.3538 with volume, stay out of shorts and wait for retest.
GBPUSD Trade IdeaThe GBPUSD pair is showing a strong bullish trend on the 4-hour chart. However, the price currently looks overextended. This suggests the market may be due for a corrective pullback.
I’m watching for a pullback into a discounted zone near the fair value gap.
If the price moves back into this zone, I’ll look for a bullish break of market structure as a signal to enter long.
This plan emphasizes patience and the importance of waiting for a favorable entry rather than chasing an extended move. As always, this is my personal strategy and not financial advice. Proper risk management and discretion are essential.
Market Analysis: GBP/USD RalliesMarket Analysis: GBP/USD Rallies
GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.3520 zone.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD Analysis Today
- The British Pound is eyeing more gains above the 1.3600 resistance.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3540 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above the 1.3350 level. The British Pound started a steady increase above the 1.3450 resistance zone against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.
The pair gained strength above the 1.3500 level. The bulls even pushed the pair above the 1.3550 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. The pair tested the 1.3585 zone and is currently consolidating gains.
GBP/USD is stable above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3390 swing low to the 1.3586 high. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3540.
It seems like the bulls might aim for more gains. The RSI moved above the 60 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair is now approaching a major hurdle at 1.3600.
An upside break above the 1.3600 zone could send the pair toward 1.3650. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.3720. If there is a downside correction, immediate support is near the 1.3540 level and the trend line.
The first major support sits near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3390 swing low to the 1.3586 high at 1.3485. The next major support is 1.3450. If there is a break below 1.3450, the pair could extend the decline. The next key support is near the 1.3390 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.3345 support.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
PERHAPS IT'S TIME TO STOP SHORTING GBPUSD LONG FORECAST W22 Y25PERHAPS IT'S TIME TO STOP SHORTING GBPUSD LONG FORECAST W22 Y25
Hey traders ✌️
welcome to your market analysis by FRGNT! 🙌
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
💡Trade confluences provided during the week 📝
✅Bullish weekly close above recent highs & Orderblock
✅ Within Weekly Orderblock. Potential shorts after bearish price action.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
IS THE BULLISH CHANNEL NEARING EXHAUSTION OR JUST GEARING UP?GBPUSD OUTLOOK – IS THE BULLISH CHANNEL NEARING EXHAUSTION OR JUST GEARING UP?
📊 Macro Overview:
The USD continues to soften slightly as markets begin pricing in a potential rate cut by the Fed later in Q3. Meanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) is holding firm, supported by stronger-than-expected UK macroeconomic data—particularly retail sales and inflation figures.
However, UK fiscal concerns remain a headwind, and GBPUSD is highly sensitive to upcoming U.S. data—especially Core PCE and employment figures this week.
📉 Technical Analysis:
On the 1H chart, GBPUSD is moving within a broad ascending channel and is now approaching the upper resistance trendline at 1.3555 – a key zone that could trigger short-term profit-taking.
EMAs 13 and 34 are still in bullish alignment, supporting ongoing momentum.
Despite the bullish setup, current candle structure suggests a potential pullback to the 1.3448 support zone before a continuation higher—if buyers regain control.
🔑 Key Price Levels:
Resistance Zones:
🔸 1.3555 – Channel top resistance
🔸 1.3586 – Extended resistance zone
Support Zones:
🔹 1.3448 – Technical and Fibo confluence
🔹 1.3398 – Major structure support in case of breakdown
🛠️ Trade Scenarios:
✅ Scenario 1: BUY on retracement
Entry: 1.3448 (watch for bullish confirmation on H1)
Stop Loss: 1.3394
Take Profit: 1.3500 → 1.3555 → 1.3585
✅ Scenario 2: SELL scalp from resistance
Entry: 1.3555
Stop Loss: 1.3588
Take Profit: 1.3500 → 1.3460
🧠 Final Thoughts:
GBPUSD remains bullish in structure but is testing key resistance levels. A clean pullback to the 1.3448 region may provide a strong buying opportunity if confirmed by price action. If this level breaks, bearish divergence could kick in and push the pair back to deeper support zones. Stay alert for high-impact economic releases and trade with solid risk management!
ARE SHORTS STILL ON? YES. GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W21 D22 Y25GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W21 D22 Y25
ARE SHORTS STILL ON? YES. GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W21 D22 Y25
BEST PRICE TO SHORT GBPUSD...BUT BE CAREFUL, AWAIT BREAKS OF STRUCTURE TO CONFIRM BEARISH INTENT
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅Intraday 15' order blocks
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
GBPUSD: Will DXY Bounce Back? |GBPUSD Swing Sell|The GBPUSD pair is currently rallying towards a potential selling zone, where sellers could push the price down. However, the main concern is the current state of the DXY, which clearly indicates another sell-off and could lead to another lower low. Please remember to use risk management while trading forex pairs.
There are three take-profit targets that can be set according to your trading plan. This analysis doesn’t guarantee that the price will move as described.
Good luck and trade safely!
Thank you for your unwavering support! 😊
If you’d like to contribute, here are a few ways you can help us:
- Like our ideas
- Comment on our ideas
- Share our ideas
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GBP/USD Breaks Key Resistance Zone – Bullish OutlookGBP/USD has broken above a long-standing resistance zone on the weekly chart, signaling a potential shift in long-term trend. This breakout aligns with a strong rising trendline that has held firm for months, showing growing bullish momentum.
If price continues to hold above the breakout level, the market could be setting up for a sustained upward move. A successful retest of the breakout zone would further confirm bullish continuation. The structure looks healthy, and the momentum is clearly on the buyer’s side.
DYOR, NFA
Thanks for following along — stay tuned for more updates!
GBPUSD Analysis – Bearish Setup Into Key ResistanceGBP/USD is trading into a key multi-week resistance zone between 1.3360 and 1.3413. The pair has failed to break this area multiple times, and current price action shows signs of compression and hesitation. With elevated UK inflation limiting BoE easing flexibility and renewed USD support following bond yield spikes, this setup offers a compelling bearish opportunity. Clean downside targets lie at 1.3177, 1.3016, and potentially 1.2890. The trade remains valid unless price breaks and holds above 1.3413.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Structure:
Price is testing a significant resistance zone (1.3360–1.3413) that’s held since early April.
Bearish trendline from May highs remains intact.
A descending structure is forming with lower highs and failed breakouts.
Support Levels to Watch:
1.3177 – Previous structure low
1.3016 – Strong horizontal support
1.2890 – March swing low and fib extension target
Confluence:
EUR/USD overlay shows rejection at similar highs, reinforcing risk-off dollar strength
Price failing to hold above fib retracement levels from prior swings
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP):
UK inflation is climbing again (expected 3.0% CPI for April), delaying BoE's ability to cut further.
BoE’s Pill has pushed back on rapid easing, citing persistent service inflation.
UK-EU trade agreement provides medium-term support, but short-term upside appears priced in.
🇺🇸 U.S. Dollar (USD):
Despite Moody’s downgrade, U.S. yields are rising, supporting USD demand.
Trump’s tariff threats have injected global risk-off tones, lifting the dollar as a safe haven.
Fed remains cautious — no rate cuts expected soon.
🎯 Trade Setup
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: Near 1.3360–1.3413 resistance (wait for rejection candle confirmation)
Targets:
First: 1.3177
Second: 1.3016
Third: 1.2890
Invalidation: A daily close above 1.3413 would invalidate the bearish thesis
⚠️ Risk & Management Tips
Don’t short blindly into resistance — wait for strong wick or bearish engulfing candle.
Watch upcoming UK inflation data or Fed commentary for macro triggers.
Avoid over-leveraging: false breakouts near highs are common.
🧭 Conclusion
GBP/USD is coiling near a powerful resistance area. A confirmed rejection opens the door for a multi-leg downside move into 1.30 and below. As long as price holds beneath 1.3413, the risk-reward profile favors sellers. Patience and precision are key at this stage.
GBPUSD: Bulls Are Gearing Up For The Next RallyBullish Confirmations:
- Double bottom formed at QP at end of last week
- Creating HLs and HHs
- Bullish Choch
- Multiple bullish FVGs (showing bullish momentum)
- Multiple bullish breaker blocks
🟢ENTRY 1.33578
SL 1.331
TP1 1.33778
TP2 1.34078
TP3 1.34578
There's a chance we may get a deeper pullback. If so no big deal, we'll just catch a better entry.
GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D16 Y25GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D16 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅Intraday 15' order blocks
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
#GBPUSD: Risk Entry Vs Safe Entry, Which One Would You Chose? The GBPUSD currency pair presents two promising opportunities for entry, potentially generating gains exceeding 500 pips. However, entering these markets carries a substantial risk of stop-loss hunting during the commencement of the week. Conversely, adopting a safe entry strategy offers a favourable chance for a bullish position.
We encourage you to share your thoughts and feedback on our ideas. ❤️🚀
Team Setupsfx_
GBPUSD Rejected Key Resistance – Bearish Continuation in Play?
**Pair:** GBPUSD
**Current Price:** ~1.3340
**Bias:** Bearish
---
**Analysis:**
GBPUSD has rejected a key resistance level around **1.3340**, which has historically acted as a strong barrier. After multiple failed attempts to break above, price formed a **lower high** and is now pushing lower with bearish momentum.
The recent move suggests a shift in sentiment, with sellers likely aiming for the next key levels near **1.3000** and potentially **1.2800**, where prior support zones exist.
---
**Technical Highlights:**
- **Resistance Level:** 1.3340 (historical supply zone)
- **Market Structure:** Lower highs, early signs of bearish trend
- **Target Zone:** 1.3000 – 1.2800
- **Invalidation:** Sustained move above 1.3500
---
**Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice):**
Look for potential short opportunities on lower timeframes, ideally after a bearish retest near 1.3340 with confirmation.
---
> **Disclaimer:**
> This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should always conduct your own research and use proper risk management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GBP/USD Bullish Playbook – Multi-Timeframe Strategy (May 2025)GBP/USD is in a clear daily uptrend, with price respecting an ascending channel since December 2024. A recent pullback to the 1.3200–1.3250 support zone set the stage for a bounce, aligning with a 1-hour double bottom and a 15-minute bull flag forming around 1.3300–1.3360.
Key short-term levels:
Support: 1.3300–1.3310 (H1 neckline & intraday trendline).
Resistance: 1.3360–1.3370 (flag high and daily breakout zone).
Trading plan:
Buy dips near 1.3300 with stops under 1.3285.
Target: 1.3360, then 1.3400–1.3450.
Breakout trade: Long above 1.3370 if momentum holds.
Fade scenario: Short 1.3360 rejections back to 1.3320.
All three timeframes support a bullish bias into higher highs, with clean setups and tight stops. This plan favors high-RR trades in a tight range with breakout potential.
GBPUSD LIVE TRADE AND EDUCATIONAL BREAKDOWN FOR BEGINNERS 218PIPGBP/USD holds recovery gains near 1.3350 as US Dollar loses further ground
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3350 in Wednesday’s European session, extending Tuesday's 1% rally. The pair capitalizes on renewed US Dollar sell-off even as risk sentiment turns negative. Fedspeak and trade talks remain in focus.
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Edges HigherMarket Analysis: GBP/USD Edges Higher
GBP/USD is attempting a fresh increase above the 1.3270 resistance.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD Analysis Today
- The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.3250.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3270 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair declined after it failed to clear the 1.3440 resistance. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound traded below the 1.3200 support against the US Dollar.
Finally, the pair tested the 1.3140 zone and is currently attempting a fresh increase. The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3215.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3270. The pair surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3402 swing high to the 1.3139 low. It is now showing positive signs above 1.3300.
On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.3340 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3402 swing high to the 1.3139 low.
The next major resistance is near 1.3400. A close above the 1.3400 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.3440. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.3500.
On the downside, immediate support is near 1.3270. If there is a downside break below 1.3270, the pair could accelerate lower. The first major support is near the 1.3215 level and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The next key support is seen near 1.3140, below which the pair could test 1.3080. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.3000 support.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D14 Y25GBPUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D14 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅Intraday 15' order blocks
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
GBPUSD: Strong Sell Momentum Built Up! What is next?GBPUSD is building strong sell momentum, increasing sell volume. At the same time, DXY is in correction mode, so keep that in mind. If DXY plummets again, it may invalidate our first entry. However, there’s a second entry that could be a safer zone for those looking for a stable entry.
There are three take profit targets that can be set according to your trading plan. This analysis doesn’t guarantee that the price will move as described.
Good luck and trade safely!
Thank you for your unwavering support! 😊
If you’d like to contribute, here are a few ways you can help us:
- Like our ideas
- Comment on our ideas
- Share our ideas
Team Setupsfx_
❤️🚀
GBP/USD Multi-Timeframe Summary (May 13–17):GBP/USD Multi-Timeframe Summary (May 13–17):
On the daily chart, GBP/USD faces strong resistance at 1.345–1.350 (double-top) and support near 1.280–1.290. The recent pullback to 1.320 aligns with the 61.8% retracement of the April–May rally.
On the hourly chart, price is consolidating in a falling channel between 1.318–1.336, with a bear trap on May 8 indicating demand near the lows. A clean hourly break above 1.336 suggests momentum toward 1.345, while a break below 1.318 targets the 1.300–1.290 daily demand zone.
The 15-minute chart shows a V-reversal from 1.314, followed by a tight flag between 1.318–1.322. This zone offers short-term breakout or fade trades.
Key levels:
Resistance: 1.336, 1.345
Support: 1.318, 1.312, 1.290
Trade triggers: Buy >1.322, Sell <1.318 (tight stops, 15–30 pip targets)
Strategy:
Scalp intraday flags on 15′, trade hourly range extremes, and watch for a breakout from the daily structure.
GBPUSD INVERSE CUP AND HANDLE PATTERNTechnical Overview
Resistance Level: 1.34400
Support Level: 1.27500
Bearish Targets: 1.30200 and 1.28800
The resistance at 1.34400 represents the peak before the formation of the inverted cup, serving as a critical level where selling pressure may intensify. The support at 1.27500 aligns with the neckline of the pattern; a decisive break below this level would confirm the bearish breakout, potentially leading to the projected targets.
📉 Trading Strategy
Consider entering a short position upon a confirmed break below the 1.27500 support level, accompanied by increased trading volume to validate the breakout.
Place a stop-loss order above the handle's peak, near 1.34400, to protect against false breakouts and limit potential losses.
GBP/USD Trading Idea: Sell Below 1.32056 Targeting 1.27133The GBP/USD pair is currently trading within an Undefined Price Action/Consolidation Zone, suggesting indecision and reduced momentum. Price has been moving sideways for several days with no clear trend direction. This area typically signals accumulation or distribution before a breakout.
Key Levels Identified
Support 1 (Breakout Level): 1.32056
Support 2 (Target Level): 1.27133 – 1.27173 (zone)
Resistance (Invalidation Zone): Around 1.33034
Trade Setup (Bearish Bias Upon Breakout)
Trade Idea
Price is currently ranging but has tested the Support 1 zone multiple times. The more a support level is tested, the weaker it becomes. A clean break below Support 1 (1.32056) would likely signal the end of the consolidation phase and could trigger a strong bearish move. If this breakdown occurs, a short position becomes valid.
Entry
Sell Stop Order below 1.32056 (e.g., at 1.31950) to catch the breakout momentum.
Take Profit (TP)
Primary Target: Support 2 zone between 1.27133 and 1.27173, representing a major historical support level. This provides a potential reward of approximately 480 pips from entry.
Stop Loss (SL)
Placed above recent swing high and resistance of the range: around 1.33034.
Risk is about 90 pips, providing a Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) of ~1:5 – favorable for short sellers.
Additional Notes
Volume Analysis: Volume appears to have dropped inside the consolidation zone, often indicating a buildup phase. A breakout with rising volume would confirm the trade signal.
Event Risk: UK-related macroeconomic events are marked on May 13 and 15. Monitor for volatility which could trigger the breakout.
Bias: Currently unbiased but leaning bearish due to:
Flat momentum within the zone
Multiple failures to sustain above mid-range
Potential for breakdown continuation aligned with the higher time frame trend