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Gbpusd_forecast

GBP/USD:Unraveling the Impact of UK Wage Growth DataGBP/USD:Unraveling the Impact of UK Wage Growth Data The Pound Sterling finds itself at a crossroads following the release of disappointing UK wage growth figures for the quarter ending November. Despite steady employment levels, the looming economic challenges cast a shadow on the currency's performance. A risk-off sentiment prevails, further intensified by concerns over UK inflation data, keeping the Pound Sterling under pressure. Market Response: During Tuesday's European morning session, the GBP/USD took a step back as the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) unveiled a slowdown in Average Earnings data for the three months leading up to November. This unexpected deceleration adds to the complexity of an already challenging economic landscape. Economic Challenges: The UK economy faces the ominous prospect of a technical recession, with the ONS reporting a contraction in the third quarter of 2023. The Bank of England (BoE) shares a cautious outlook, expressing less confidence in any growth during the final quarter of 2023. Factors such as higher interest rates and an escalating cost-of-living crisis contribute to the prevailing economic uncertainty. Technical Analysis: Examining the GBP/USD from a technical standpoint, the price retraced to the Demand Zone around the 61.8% Fibonacci area. This area becomes particularly significant due to the confluence with the Supply zone and the presence of the dynamic trendline within the Bullish Channel. Additionally, the Stochastic indicator signaling an Oversold condition presents an intriguing opportunity for traders. This setting potentially offers a discounted buying opportunity, with an optimistic outlook for a price surge aligned with the ongoing Bullish trend. Conclusion: As economic challenges cast a shadow on the Pound Sterling's performance, traders and investors closely monitor the technical landscape for potential opportunities. The convergence of factors, including the economic headwinds, technical indicators, and the cautious stance of the BoE, shapes the narrative for the GBP/USD. How the Pound navigates these challenges will be pivotal in determining its trajectory in the coming sessions. Our preference Long positions above 1.25350 with targets at 1.2750 & 1.2850 in extension
Long
by FOREXN1
4
GBP / USD LONG Very Messy price Action, and am long bias as I believe that gbp is the stringer currency. In order to take this I would like a rejection from bottom, ideally via a break and and pull back back into structure with a 4h close and a higher high close on a smaller time frame for a long back to the top of structure. Alternatively if a pull back doesn't occur then i would look for a break and a 4h close above the blue zone with a retest and a Higher high close on the smaller time frame.
Long
by garethwarnock44
GBPUSD Trade IdeaThe GBPUSD daily chart suggests a confirmed downside break of market structure. While a healthy retracement is ongoing, the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone offers a possible shorting opportunity if price action confirms on a lower timeframe (e.g., 15m / 5m). Targets lie at the current candle low and prior daily lows (refer to snapshot). Please note: This is an informative analysis, not a trade recommendation. Conduct your own due diligence and risk management before taking any trading decisions.
Short
by fxtraderanthony
GBPUSD: Dollar slides lower after CPI data; Sterling is supporteThe dollar steadied in early European trade on Friday as investors focused on mixed U.S. consumer inflation data and the potential impact of the FBI's interest rate cut. Future Federal Reserve System. As of 4:25 p.m. ET (9:25 p.m. Japan time), the dollar index against a basket of six other currencies was trading steady at 102.022, down from Thursday's high of 102.76 (a five-month low). Although it has fallen from a certain point of 100.61, it is still above it. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in December, according to data released Thursday. The annual rate of increase was 3.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.2% and 3.2% increases, respectively. increase. However, the dollar received little support from this, as the "core" CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell again, suggesting underlying inflation remained subdued. Federal Reserve officials have sought to downplay the possibility of early rate cuts, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester saying Thursday that the latest CPI numbers indicate it may be too early for the central bank to cut rates. Major interest rate cuts in March. But most traders still expect the Fed to start cutting rates as early as March. "A rate cut in March is still priced in by more than 60%, and we still see near-term vulnerability in risk assets from this move," ING analysts said in a note. The new decision is too restrictive. ” All eyes are now on the US producer price index, which will be released in late trading, with the index expected to rise 0.1% in December, bringing the annual rate of increase to just 1.3%. In Europe, the pound/dollar pair rose 0.1% to 1.2775 after data released on Friday showed the British economy grew slightly more than expected in November. The country's GDP rose 0.3% this month, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
GBPUSD Shorts from 1.28000 down towards demand This pair continues to grab my attention, particularly as it approaches my 10-hour supply zone. I anticipate a redistribution and subsequent sell-off targeting the equal lows. It's important to note that this is a counter-trend trade aimed at capturing a temporary downward movement to a more favourable demand. Given the substantial liquidity at the newly identified 4-hourly demand zone, my strategy involves patiently waiting for the equal lows to be swept, filling the imbalance, and eventually triggering a reaction off the prominent 11-hour demand zone. However, I will assess price behaviour within the 4-hour zone, considering it as the closest opportunity for potential buys. Confluences for GBPUSD Sells are as follows: - Price has swept liquidity to the upside and now price is slowing down - Bullish pressure is now getting exhausted as you can see from the candlesticks. - Price has filled in an imbalance just below our 10-hour supply zone. - There is lots of liquidity to the downside that needs to get taken like equal lows. - Price is due for a pullback to enter a level of demand if price wants to keep pushing higher. - Overall on the higher time frame the market is bearish and I do see the dollar rising just a little more. P.S. As price steadily advances, this serves as additional confirmation that it is likely to react off the nearby supply zone. Consequently, I anticipate a Wyckoff distribution to unfold. Have a great week ahead traders!
Short
by Hassan_fx
💡 GBPUSD: Pressure from sellersGBPUSD continued to recover in the past session after buyers successfully defended the support level of 1.26. Although it is still not possible to break the resistance at 1.28 and create a new peak to confirm the continuation of the uptrend. However, recent price behavior shows that buyers are gradually regaining control of the situation, expecting prices to continue to rise. It is possible to continue holding existing long positions, the SL is still set below 1.26 while the target remains 1.30.
Short
by Stone_Haven
GBPUSD Longs from 1.26500 Up towards 1.28000This GBPUSD scenario catches my attention due to the intriguing structure that price has formed. Presently, my strategy involves waiting for a slight dip in price to reach the Asian low and touch my 10hr demand zone. Following this, I anticipate a Wyckoff accumulation process, providing an opportunity for a buy position targeting the 10hr supply zone located within the psychological level of 1.28000. In the event that price decides to rise first, my inclination would be toward short-term sells initiated from the same 10hr supply zone, with the aim of guiding it down toward the demand. Additionally, my interest is piqued by the backup zones, where substantial liquidity is visible near my Points of Interest (POIs), offering reliable areas for potential trading opportunities. Confluences for GBPUSD Buys are as follows: - Unmitigated 10hr Demand zone has been left which caused a major BOS to the upside. - Temporary trend is also bullish as price has broken structure once again. - DXY is still looking bearish meaning that GBPUSD is expected to rise. - Asian low on top of demand is a good sign as price will sweep liquidity before entering. - In order for price to continue in its bullish course, it must ideally react off a demand level. P.S. As the current market conditions remain in equilibrium, my approach is to wait for price to reach either a discounted or premium level. Given the ongoing short retracement and the presence of liquidity below, I anticipate the demand to be mitigated first at the discounted price. However, I acknowledge the possibility of price reaching my 10hr supply, in which case, I would opt for selling positions to capture a downward movement. HAPPY NEW YEARS TO ALL OF YOU AND HOPE THIS YEAR BRING EVERYONE PROFITABILITY AND CONSISTENCY. LETS CATCH THESE PIPS!
Long
by Hassan_fx
GBPUSD: US dollar depreciates as expectations for interest rate The U.S. dollar is on track to decline annually, weakening from two consecutive years of strong gains as expectations grow for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year. The dollar index against six major currencies hit a five-month low of 100.81, reflecting Wednesday's 0.5% decline and expectations for a 2.6% decline for the year. In contrast to the Fed's unexpectedly dovish stance at its December meeting, other major central banks, including the European Central Bank, remained committed to keeping interest rates high for a longer period of time. However, markets believe the ECB is considering cutting interest rates by up to 165 basis points next year. Sterling hit $1.2813, its highest since Aug. 10, and is on course for its first annual rise of 6% since 2017. The Bank of England faces a difficult environment. Challenges posed by rising inflation in the UK. The ability of the Fed to cut interest rates as aggressively as the Fed and the ECB may be limited. This has widened the yield differential with U.S. and European bonds, making British assets more attractive and supporting the pound.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
GBPUSD Longs from 1.26500 or 1.25500This week's forecast for GBPUSD involves waiting for additional selling pressure to occur before considering buys around the two nearby demand zones I've identified (10-hour and 11-hour). Following the recent reaction from a 7-hour supply, as the price is currently descending, I am anticipating the exhaustion of selling pressure and the accumulation of price. Upon confirmation of a Wyckoff accumulation, validated by a CHOCH within my demand zone, I will be prompted to initiate buy positions aligned with the prevailing bullish trend in GBPUSD. Additionally, there is notable liquidity to the upside, including engineered liquidity and untouched Asian highs. Confluences for GBPUSD Buys are as follows: - There are two demand zones (the 10hr and the 11hr) that price could react off. - Lots of liquidity in the form of engineering liquidity and asian highs. - This idea aligns with the temporary bullish trend that GU has generated. - Selling pressure is slowly getting exhausted and is pending an accumulation. - For price to continue going higher and create a new leg it must react off a near demand. P.S. While acknowledging the temporary bullish trend in place, it's important to recognize the overall bearish trend for this pair. This implies that eventually, the price will reach a certain supply level, triggering a significant bearish movement. However, for the present moment, it's crucial to adapt and align with the current bullish trend.
Long
by Hassan_fx
GBPJPY) 4H) tame frame ) analysis)Speculation about when the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has been rife, but seen as more likely to come in January than December. Price action in JPY-related FX option markets isn't offering many clues, with increased demand and high volatility risk premiums for both meetings, and also for a speech by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Dec. 25. Deutsche shares sentiment with other banks who expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its current monetary policy framework in December, while hinting at an end to the NIRP at its Jan. 23 meeting. Deutsche attribute a 60% probability to hints being made. In terms of fundamentals, Deutsche believe that ending NIRP in January is appropriate because the forecast in the outlook report will change since the data already imply a virtuous circle in wages and prices. In terms of practicalities, it is because financial institutions would have sufficient time to prepare for it. Deutsche suspect that the BoJ will hint at the upcoming policy revision by including some key points in its statement; that it will assess and confirm the virtual circle between wages and prices by the January meeting, with the results to be published at the same time as the outlook report; and that, as a result of this assessment, the policy revision will be judged appropriate and it will continue to emphasize an accommodative policy stance and stable JGB markets even after the revision. Overnight expiry FXO implied volatility
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
2