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Gbpusd_forecast

GBPUSD analysis week 40Fundamental Analysis According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the market is currently pricing in a more than 75% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points in November. In addition, weaker US macroeconomic data on Tuesday, coupled with the prevailing risk-on environment, further undermined the safe-haven dollar and confirmed the positive near-term outlook for GBP/USD. Going forward, there is no market-relevant economic data due out of the UK on Wednesday. However, a scheduled speech by BoE MPC Member Megan Greene could influence GBP and provide some impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Later in the early North American session, US New Home Sales data could contribute to short-term trading opportunities. Technical Analysis GBPUSD’s trading range has remained largely unchanged over the past week. With little technical movement we still see the pair in a solid range of 1.323 and 2.349. In the short term we can see that the immediate support zone has been raised after the price reacted strongly at 1.331 and the resistance level forming a triple top around 1.342 has been established. The GBPUSD direction could continue the correction early next week and reach the yearly record around 1.350 in the near term. Trading signals SELL GBPUSD zone 1.349-1.351 Stoploss 1.353 BUY GBPUSD zone 1.323-1.321 Stoploss 1.319
by TVS-Trader
1
A SWING BULLISH SCENARIO FOR THE POUND?DOLLAR (GBPUSD) PAIRClearly price is in an upward trajectory as price recently gave us a break of structure from July 2023 high which was a pivot point and a strong high for price . Previously we saw price gave us a break of structure to the downside from the highs that were created in may of 2021 around 1.4247 and the low that gave a BOS in sep of 2022 around 1.0343 which prompted price to trade back into premium zone of these two ranges. Price tapped into 0.705 fib level around 1.0309 in July of 2023 and immediately rejected which is normal if price is meant to continue downward. but price sold and found support around 1.0204 in Oct of 2023 which technically means a trendline is activated to support price suggesting market participants expect a possible trending market to the upside . Now recently price has violated 2023 high which was supposed to be intact if we are bearish, thus confriming the possibilitiesof an uptrend. possible next supply zone for price will be equal 2021 highs or monthly bearish ob around 2021 highs. If the consequent encroachment of the ob fails to resist price then price will either use 2021 highs as draw on liquidity to retrace back into fib OTE levels or just break above, either ways that zone is GU's next line of defense.
Long
by Houdini4k
GBPUSD Approaches Major Zone: Monitoring Dollar for Next MoveAt the moment, we are observing the GBPUSD pair with no clear bias, simply monitoring the price action as it approaches a key zone. From a monthly perspective, we can see that the price has been in a bullish trend for several consecutive months. However, it is now reaching an important level where a potential pullback could occur. The plan is to start monitoring the 4-hour and daily charts, looking for a clear signal that confirms the price's intention to retrace from this area. We are not rushing to take a directional stance until the market provides a more decisive signal. One key factor to watch is the current behavior of the dollar . It is sitting at a strong support zone, which could be affected by upcoming economic data. If this support breaks, we could see strength in GBPUSD , driven by the dollar's weakness. It is crucial to keep an eye on the signals coming from the dollar and the forthcoming economic data, as these could trigger significant volatility and help define the next move in GBPUSD. Given the current state of the dollar, the likelihood of a correction or move in GBPUSD is high, but we need confirmation through price action.
by Wiiso
GBPUSD Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀 👉 GBPUSD has been bullish recently; however, the price appears overextended and is trading near a resistance level. If today’s USD data release supports a weaker USD, there could be an opportunity to buy GBPUSD. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please conduct your own research or consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. 📊✅
by tradingwithanthony
GBPUSD moving higher to test 1.3500 level**Monthly Chart** GBPUSD monthly candle closed bullish for August. The next price target is around 1.3500 level (previous monthly IPA +Monthly High). * *Weekly Chart** GBPUSD moved aggressively higher after it formed a weekly key reversal in the previous week (9th Sept 2024). The bounce was from the weekly IPA of 19 Aug 2024 which made it a strong move higher. The expectation for this week is that the upward movement is to be sustained and at least test 1.35000 level of the monthly IPA + Liquidity pool of Feb 2022. **Daily Chart** GBPUSD is expected to continue moving upward. We will be looking for any good setup for long opportunity. Next target at 1.35000 level. Better setup can be found in lower time frames such as 4H and One hour charts.
Long
by PropSignals
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis - Rising Channel and Fibonacci LevelsI'm tracking GBP/JPY on the 1-hour chart . The pair has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel and is approaching key resistance levels. I’ve plotted Fibonacci levels to watch for potential corrections. Price is hovering around the 61.8% retracement , which is often a significant support zone. Price continues to respect the upward trendline, which reinforces the bullish momentum as long as it holds. The next level of interest is around 193.00 , aligning with channel resistance and key horizontal levels. If the price breaks above this area, it could head higher toward 194.50 . If the price breaks below the trendline, I’ll be looking at the 50% Fibonacci level as a possible next support at 190.00 . Overall, I'm bullish for now, but cautious of a potential retracement if the price fails to break out of the channel.
Long
by War_Z-one
Easy Does It: Bank of England Leaves Bank Rate on Hold at 5.0%‘Easy does it’ was today's primary message from the Bank of England (BoE). Unlike the US Federal Reserve cutting rates by an outsized 50 basis points (bps) yesterday, the BoE is clearly in no rush to ease policy, with most policymakers backing a slow and steady approach. In an 8-1 majority vote, the BoE left the Bank Rate on hold at 5.0% (external member Swati Dhingra, a known dove, opted for a 25bp cut). This follows August's meeting's 25 bp reduction, its first rate cut since 2020. The central bank also unanimously voted that the Committee would decrease its government bond purchases by £100 million over the next 12 months. Amid the hold and hawkish vote split, the rate announcement triggered a bid in sterling (GBP) versus major G10 currencies. GBP/USD refreshed year-to-date peaks just north of US$1.33, touching levels not seen since early 2022. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasised that the economic picture is evolving as expected and rates would be reduced ‘gradually over time’, and added: ‘It's vital that inflation stays low, so we need to be careful not to cut too fast or by too much’. Headline Inflation Remains Just North of the BoE’s Target UK CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) was unchanged in August for both YoY and MoM measures on the headline front. The Office for National Statistics revealed that UK headline inflation rose by +2.2% (YoY), flirting just north of the BoE’s inflation target of 2.0%, reached in May this year. Core and services inflation, however, ticked higher in August, with the latter still a thorn in the side of the BoE. It is worth noting that the rise in services inflation was largely due to base effects. Wages continued to pull back in the three months to July; the unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% in June (BoE forecast unemployment will hit 4.8% in two years), and employment growth jumped to 265,000 from June’s reading of 97,000. Regarding growth, the BoE now forecasts real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to ease to 0.3% in Q3 24, a touch south of the 0.4% August forecast. While the economy grew 0.5% in the three months to July 2024, albeit softer than the market’s median estimate of 0.6% and lower than June’s reading of 0.6%, real GDP flatlined again in July, defying economists’ expectations of 0.2%. Cautious Vibe The central bank’s cautious vibe has seen markets pare rate cut bets for this year. OIS traders (Overnight Index Swaps) are fully pricing in a 25bp rate cut in November, with a total of 43bps of cuts for the year. Where Does This Leave the GBP? The British pound versus the US dollar (GBP/USD) is in a favourable spot on the monthly chart. Following the break of resistance at US$1.3111 (now possible support), this technically swings the pendulum in favour of further upside for the currency pair, targeting resistance at US$1.3483. The trend also supports the bulls, exhibiting clear-cut uptrends on the monthly and daily charts, therefore any corrections will likely be viewed as dip-buying opportunities. Supports of interest are the monthly base mentioned above at US$1.3111, positioned near a local daily descending support line, extended from the high of 1.3267.
Long
by FPMarkets
Bearish Reversal in GBP/USD After NFP Data: Key Levels to WatchIn my August 8 analysis, I highlighted the Morning Star pattern, which retested the previous resistance of the broken triangle, signaling a potential reversal to the upside with a target above 1.31 for the next leg up. As anticipated, the price did reverse, and not only was the target reached, but it was also surpassed. However, after breaking above the horizontal resistance level, which marked a yearly high for GBP/USD, the pair reversed. Despite bulls' efforts to regain control, the NFP data provided clarity with a strong bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. At the time of writing, the price is sitting right on the former resistance level, which now serves as support. A break below this level could lead to further downside movement toward the psychological 1.30 level, and potentially even the 1.2850 technical support zone. I believe this scenario will play out for "cable," and I'm looking to sell into rallies. However, this outlook would be invalidated if a new high is achieved.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
8
GBP/USD Sell to buy idea from 1.32000 to 1.30400GU Analysis for This Week: My outlook on GU this week largely depends on how the market opens. If the price moves downward and breaks structure by taking out the liquidity at the swing low, I expect a retracement to the 12-hour demand zone. In this scenario, the 10-hour supply zone I marked would become more valid, although there is also a possibility that price could move there first. This would lead to an initial sell-off, to ride the price down until it fills the imbalance just above the demand zone. Once price reaches this point, it would fill a level of imbalance, potentially triggering stronger buying pressure. Confluences for GU Sells: - The price has been forming lower lows and lower highs. - There is an imbalance below that needs to be filled, along with a demand level. - A 10-hour demand zone was left untouched by the NFP news event. - There is significant liquidity below, providing clear target levels for take profit. - This analysis aligns well with the dollar index (DXY) chart. Note: If the price invalidates the current supply, my ideal scenario would be for the price to reach the 11-hour supply zone at the very top, as it offers a more premium level to sell from. Have a great trading week, everyone!
Short
by Hassan_fx
GBP USD Trade Setup 1 hour timeframe.Following the head and shoulder pattern formed on GBP USD last week the price has been pushing down as DXY continues bullish.. As we all know the market dose not move in a straight line up trend makes higher highs and higher lows, down trend makes lower lows and lower highs. On the 1 hour timeframe GBP USD has broken a structure level to the downside, before we can sell we need to see a pullback of the next candlestick retesting the lower low level. ⏰
Short
by OfficialUBKFX
GBPUSD short term counter trend this week**Monthly Chart** GBPUSD monthly candle closed bullish for August. The next price target is around 1.3400 level (previous monthly IPA). **Weekly Chart** Last week, the candle closed as bearish as it reduced momentum near the imbalance level of the 28th Feb 2022 candle. This week I will examine this area for short trading opportunities if GBPUSD couldn’t break higher. **Daily Chart** I suspect GBPUSD to have one more push to the upside at least retest and sweep the newly formed liquidity before it reverses lower. This might be a short-term counter-trend as we are still in a bullish trend on higher time frames.
Short
by PropSignals