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Gbpusd_forecast

GBPUSD Gonna Pullback & DownMarket Price Action Structure is Key! Technically, In weekly RSI; Its Over Sold; In Daily & 4H its strong bullish divergence! 1. Monetary Policy At their May meeting, the BoE delivered on expectations by raising the bank rate by 25bsp to 1.0%. There was an initial hawkish surprise as the vote split was 9-0 (no dissent from Cunliffe) and 3 of the 9 MPC members voted for a 50bsp move at the meeting. However, the hawkish reaction soon faded as it was also revealed that 2 of the 6 members who voted for a hike thought that this marked the end of the current hiking cycle. The dovishness didn’t stop there though as the BoE revised up their forecasts for peak inflation to >10% which added to the stagflation fears as the bank also saw possible GDP contraction in 2023. Furthermore, the bank took their first real stab at overly aggressive STIR pricing for the 2022 rate path by saying the current path would imply a big undershoot of their 2% inflation target in 2023 and was later backed up by Governor Bailey who said even though he thought rates should continue to rise he didn’t agree with those who think the MPC should be raising interest rates by a lot more. As the bank rate was raised to 1.0%, the markets expected some clarity from the bank on their plans to reduce the balance sheet . However, the bank decided to play for more time and said the bank will provide an update on their plans at the August meeting, pushing back expectations of active QT from Q2 to Q3. As a result of the overall dovish tone, Sterling fell to its lowest levels since 1Q21. The meeting confirmed market calls that the bank would look to hold rates steady after reaching 1.50%. 2. Economic & Health Developments With inflation the main reason for the BoE’s recent rate hikes, there is a concern that the UK economy faces stagflation risk, as price pressures stay sticky while growth decelerates. That also means that current market expectations for rates continues to look too aggressive even after the BoE’s recent push back. This means downside risks for GBP if growth data push lower and/or the BoE continue to push their recent dovish tone. 3. Political Developments Political uncertainty is usually GBP negative, so the PM’s future remains a risk. If distrust grows question remains on whether a no-confidence vote can happen (if so, short-term downside is likely), and whether he can survive the vote (a win should be GBP positive and a loss GBP negative). The Northern Ireland protocol remains a focus, with previous UK threats to trigger Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do. Markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. 1. SEE THE FUNDAMENTAL! 2. WHAT IS THE OVERALL TREND? PRICE ACTION WILL GIVE YOU CLUE! 3. IS PRICE AT A LEVEL OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND (SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE)? 4. IS PRICE APPROACHING A LEVEL OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND (SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE)? 5. ARE YOU TRADING WITH THE TREND OR AGAINST THE TREND (MAKE SURE YOU ONLY TRADE AGAINST THE TREND ON THE 4HR TIME-FRAME AND ABOVE. 6. AND MUST CHECK THE DIVERGENCE.
Long
by mahfuzazim_TA
GBPUSDThe GBP/USD had a difficult performance in April as the strength of the US dollar continued. The pair attempted to recover on Friday but it found a strong resistance at 1.2615. It has now pulled back and moved slightly below the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA). The Stochastic Oscillator moved from the overbought level. Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling as investors target last month’s low of 1.2410. It will then bounce back after the BOE decision.
Short
by SmoothJB
GBPUSDThe British pound has had a very rough month for April, just as almost all currencies have. The only currency that seems to be doing very well is the US dollar. The Bank of England has announced that they are not willing to sell off the assets on its balance sheet, so this means that they are not quite as hawkish as the Federal Reserve. If that is going to be the case, then it makes a lot of sense that the British pound continues to fall. The 1.25 level being pierced during the month of course is a very negative sign as well. That being said, there is a lot of noise just below and it is worth noting that the British pound is oversold. It is because of this that I think there will be a certain amount of support sooner or later, if for no other reason than we might have profit-taking. If we do get that profit-taking, then it is likely that we could see a rather significant bounce. That bounce is more likely than not going to offer a nice selling opportunity though, and therefore I will be waiting to see signs of exhaustion after that short-term rally. The 1.30 level above should be significant resistance, as it had been significant support and resistance previously. Furthermore, there is a certain amount of psychological importance to this number, so it does come back into the picture as well. The British pound has to worry about what is going on with its energy market at home because Russia does supply the United Kingdom with quite a bit of natural gas. Furthermore, it appears that the global economies are going to be slowing down in general and that typically means that people will be looking to get US dollars. Unless the Federal Reserve changes its overall attitude, I do not see a situation where we have the British pound taken off to the upside against the greenback. Yes, we may get the occasional rally, but I think that is all is going to be, short-term at best. The one outlier might be is if the Bank of England suddenly changes its attitude. With the inflation that we see in the United States, the Federal Reserve is looking very hawkish and probably will be for the rest of the year.
Short
by SmoothJB
1
Mid term forecast of gbp/usdZEYAN here!!!! I'm looking at the market as a bear, and as far as I can tell, in the medium term, it's more bearish then bullish This is a general idea of how I view the market; I use algorithms to determine trend and different entry techniques; please do not take this information at face value; conduct your own research. If you want me to analyse your charts, please let me know in the comments. like for more!!!!!!!!! This is not financial advice; please conduct your own research and use this information as confirmation in addition to your own analysis.
by zeyankhan1318
1
GBPUSD LONG!!!1Monday looks to have set the base for a potential long with London Killzone offering the high and low of the day. London open we seen manipulation running the asian range buyside liquidity before reversing and taking out the lows followed buy a Sharpe reversal breaking market structure to the upside and setting the tone for the week. CLASSIC LONDON OPEN WHIPSAW. Now we look for our way in , well wait for London open again tomorrow see if we run the current sell side liquidity into the 5mob=fvg shown on chart. Entry- 1.30000 BIG FIGURE Stoploss- 1.29959 (0.42%) TP- 1.310000 BIG FIGURE HUGE RR trade offering 10/1 with 0.42% risk and potential growth on 10k account of 3.5% Well be managing the trade accordingly once we clear today high at 1.30565 and reduce are risk.
Long
by Marketperceptions00
GBPUSD RETAIL HERD LONG 📉📉📉📉 In this example i provided you with a photo to understand how the retail herd on the most popular retail cfd's brokers are positionated. As we can see on the photo around 68% of the retail herd are long on this pair meaning we have to look only for shorts alligned with the contrarian trading approach to the markets. Price taked out buy side liquidity and quickly reversed to the downside as you can see on the chart plotted with liquidity. Remember, you will always have the herd results if you are doing what the herd is doing. Be contrarian that's and edge in the markets. What do you think ? Comment below..
Short
by AnonimFXRO
GBPUSD SHORTS 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bearish price action on GBPUSD as price rejected the bearish orderblock on the H1 filling on it's way the bearish imbalance. We have multiple bearish bos that confirms me that the strucutre is bearish. We have equal lows with a lot of liquidity somewhere around 1.30900 price area that price should hit the next day. The retail heard is LONG on this pair meaning we are going with short against them, another confluence in our short position. GOING AGAINS THE RETAIL HEARD What do you think ? Comment below ?
Short
by AnonimFXRO
GBPUSD SHORTS ACTIVE 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bearish price action on GBPUSD on a H1 market perspective as we have bearish market strucutre, price is making lower lows and higher lows with bearish bos that confirms the strucutre. For a short entry i will wait for the price to reach the orderblock bearish H1 area + imbalance fill as we have a lot of confluences in that area + fibonaci premium market area. The retail heard is LONG on this GBPUSD and this should add more confluence on our short entry. What do you think ? Comment below..
Short
by AnonimFXRO
GBP/USD Short TradeHey Guys! The current GBP/USD Daily Bias is short. Or in other words, price is likely to reach 1.3049 before reaching 1.3298. So I'm currently waiting for a pullback so I can take a short entry. In this video I explain the reasoning behind this setup as well as the stop loss and target levels I will be using. Moreover, what I will be looking for in terms of confirmation of the legitimacy of this short setup. That's it! I'll keep you guys updated! Have a great day! Ken Disclaimer: This is not Personal Financial Advice.
Short
by TradingForexPriceAction
1