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Gbpusd_forecast

GBPUSD Approaches Major Zone: Monitoring Dollar for Next MoveAt the moment, we are observing the GBPUSD pair with no clear bias, simply monitoring the price action as it approaches a key zone. From a monthly perspective, we can see that the price has been in a bullish trend for several consecutive months. However, it is now reaching an important level where a potential pullback could occur. The plan is to start monitoring the 4-hour and daily charts, looking for a clear signal that confirms the price's intention to retrace from this area. We are not rushing to take a directional stance until the market provides a more decisive signal. One key factor to watch is the current behavior of the dollar . It is sitting at a strong support zone, which could be affected by upcoming economic data. If this support breaks, we could see strength in GBPUSD , driven by the dollar's weakness. It is crucial to keep an eye on the signals coming from the dollar and the forthcoming economic data, as these could trigger significant volatility and help define the next move in GBPUSD. Given the current state of the dollar, the likelihood of a correction or move in GBPUSD is high, but we need confirmation through price action.
by Wiiso
GBPUSD Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀 👉 GBPUSD has been bullish recently; however, the price appears overextended and is trading near a resistance level. If today’s USD data release supports a weaker USD, there could be an opportunity to buy GBPUSD. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please conduct your own research or consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. 📊✅
by fxtraderanthony
GBPUSD moving higher to test 1.3500 level**Monthly Chart** GBPUSD monthly candle closed bullish for August. The next price target is around 1.3500 level (previous monthly IPA +Monthly High). * *Weekly Chart** GBPUSD moved aggressively higher after it formed a weekly key reversal in the previous week (9th Sept 2024). The bounce was from the weekly IPA of 19 Aug 2024 which made it a strong move higher. The expectation for this week is that the upward movement is to be sustained and at least test 1.35000 level of the monthly IPA + Liquidity pool of Feb 2022. **Daily Chart** GBPUSD is expected to continue moving upward. We will be looking for any good setup for long opportunity. Next target at 1.35000 level. Better setup can be found in lower time frames such as 4H and One hour charts.
Long
by PropSignals
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis - Rising Channel and Fibonacci LevelsI'm tracking GBP/JPY on the 1-hour chart . The pair has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel and is approaching key resistance levels. I’ve plotted Fibonacci levels to watch for potential corrections. Price is hovering around the 61.8% retracement , which is often a significant support zone. Price continues to respect the upward trendline, which reinforces the bullish momentum as long as it holds. The next level of interest is around 193.00 , aligning with channel resistance and key horizontal levels. If the price breaks above this area, it could head higher toward 194.50 . If the price breaks below the trendline, I’ll be looking at the 50% Fibonacci level as a possible next support at 190.00 . Overall, I'm bullish for now, but cautious of a potential retracement if the price fails to break out of the channel.
Long
by War_Z-one
Easy Does It: Bank of England Leaves Bank Rate on Hold at 5.0%‘Easy does it’ was today's primary message from the Bank of England (BoE). Unlike the US Federal Reserve cutting rates by an outsized 50 basis points (bps) yesterday, the BoE is clearly in no rush to ease policy, with most policymakers backing a slow and steady approach. In an 8-1 majority vote, the BoE left the Bank Rate on hold at 5.0% (external member Swati Dhingra, a known dove, opted for a 25bp cut). This follows August's meeting's 25 bp reduction, its first rate cut since 2020. The central bank also unanimously voted that the Committee would decrease its government bond purchases by £100 million over the next 12 months. Amid the hold and hawkish vote split, the rate announcement triggered a bid in sterling (GBP) versus major G10 currencies. GBP/USD refreshed year-to-date peaks just north of US$1.33, touching levels not seen since early 2022. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasised that the economic picture is evolving as expected and rates would be reduced ‘gradually over time’, and added: ‘It's vital that inflation stays low, so we need to be careful not to cut too fast or by too much’. Headline Inflation Remains Just North of the BoE’s Target UK CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) was unchanged in August for both YoY and MoM measures on the headline front. The Office for National Statistics revealed that UK headline inflation rose by +2.2% (YoY), flirting just north of the BoE’s inflation target of 2.0%, reached in May this year. Core and services inflation, however, ticked higher in August, with the latter still a thorn in the side of the BoE. It is worth noting that the rise in services inflation was largely due to base effects. Wages continued to pull back in the three months to July; the unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% in June (BoE forecast unemployment will hit 4.8% in two years), and employment growth jumped to 265,000 from June’s reading of 97,000. Regarding growth, the BoE now forecasts real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to ease to 0.3% in Q3 24, a touch south of the 0.4% August forecast. While the economy grew 0.5% in the three months to July 2024, albeit softer than the market’s median estimate of 0.6% and lower than June’s reading of 0.6%, real GDP flatlined again in July, defying economists’ expectations of 0.2%. Cautious Vibe The central bank’s cautious vibe has seen markets pare rate cut bets for this year. OIS traders (Overnight Index Swaps) are fully pricing in a 25bp rate cut in November, with a total of 43bps of cuts for the year. Where Does This Leave the GBP? The British pound versus the US dollar (GBP/USD) is in a favourable spot on the monthly chart. Following the break of resistance at US$1.3111 (now possible support), this technically swings the pendulum in favour of further upside for the currency pair, targeting resistance at US$1.3483. The trend also supports the bulls, exhibiting clear-cut uptrends on the monthly and daily charts, therefore any corrections will likely be viewed as dip-buying opportunities. Supports of interest are the monthly base mentioned above at US$1.3111, positioned near a local daily descending support line, extended from the high of 1.3267.
Long
by FPMarkets
Bearish Reversal in GBP/USD After NFP Data: Key Levels to WatchIn my August 8 analysis, I highlighted the Morning Star pattern, which retested the previous resistance of the broken triangle, signaling a potential reversal to the upside with a target above 1.31 for the next leg up. As anticipated, the price did reverse, and not only was the target reached, but it was also surpassed. However, after breaking above the horizontal resistance level, which marked a yearly high for GBP/USD, the pair reversed. Despite bulls' efforts to regain control, the NFP data provided clarity with a strong bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. At the time of writing, the price is sitting right on the former resistance level, which now serves as support. A break below this level could lead to further downside movement toward the psychological 1.30 level, and potentially even the 1.2850 technical support zone. I believe this scenario will play out for "cable," and I'm looking to sell into rallies. However, this outlook would be invalidated if a new high is achieved.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
8
GBP/USD Sell to buy idea from 1.32000 to 1.30400GU Analysis for This Week: My outlook on GU this week largely depends on how the market opens. If the price moves downward and breaks structure by taking out the liquidity at the swing low, I expect a retracement to the 12-hour demand zone. In this scenario, the 10-hour supply zone I marked would become more valid, although there is also a possibility that price could move there first. This would lead to an initial sell-off, to ride the price down until it fills the imbalance just above the demand zone. Once price reaches this point, it would fill a level of imbalance, potentially triggering stronger buying pressure. Confluences for GU Sells: - The price has been forming lower lows and lower highs. - There is an imbalance below that needs to be filled, along with a demand level. - A 10-hour demand zone was left untouched by the NFP news event. - There is significant liquidity below, providing clear target levels for take profit. - This analysis aligns well with the dollar index (DXY) chart. Note: If the price invalidates the current supply, my ideal scenario would be for the price to reach the 11-hour supply zone at the very top, as it offers a more premium level to sell from. Have a great trading week, everyone!
Short
by Hassan_fx
GBP USD Trade Setup 1 hour timeframe.Following the head and shoulder pattern formed on GBP USD last week the price has been pushing down as DXY continues bullish.. As we all know the market dose not move in a straight line up trend makes higher highs and higher lows, down trend makes lower lows and lower highs. On the 1 hour timeframe GBP USD has broken a structure level to the downside, before we can sell we need to see a pullback of the next candlestick retesting the lower low level. ⏰
Short
by OfficialUBKFX
GBPUSD short term counter trend this week**Monthly Chart** GBPUSD monthly candle closed bullish for August. The next price target is around 1.3400 level (previous monthly IPA). **Weekly Chart** Last week, the candle closed as bearish as it reduced momentum near the imbalance level of the 28th Feb 2022 candle. This week I will examine this area for short trading opportunities if GBPUSD couldn’t break higher. **Daily Chart** I suspect GBPUSD to have one more push to the upside at least retest and sweep the newly formed liquidity before it reverses lower. This might be a short-term counter-trend as we are still in a bullish trend on higher time frames.
Short
by PropSignals
GBP/USD Strategic Insights: Q3 Breakouts and Q4 ProjectionsAnalyzing GBP/USD: A Journey Through Accumulation, Breakouts, and Forecasting Q2 2024: The Accumulation Phase During the second quarter of 2024, the British Pound entered a pronounced accumulation phase. Institutional buyers were actively engaged, positioning their trades to capitalize on future movements. This period set the stage for subsequent price actions and was crucial in understanding the currency's resilience. Q3 2024: Strategic Movements and False Breakouts As the third quarter commenced, the GBP/USD experienced a deceptive breakout to the downside, aligning perfectly with the Camarilla pivot support levels at S3 and S4. This false move highlighted the strength of these levels as key support zones, underscoring why initiating short trades—common among retail traders—was strategically questionable at this juncture. By June 2024, the GBP/USD climbed towards $1.2800, briefly entering a distribution/accumulation phase, which prepped the market for an anticipated bullish continuation. Mid-Q3 Breakout and Profit Realization By mid-August 2024, propelled by institutional trading, GBP/USD convincingly broke past the R4 Camarilla level at $1.2950. This breakout targeted the R5 level at $1.3200, identified as the optimal take-profit point. This movement marked a significant transition from the previous range-bound market conditions, showcasing the effectiveness of strategic pivot level monitoring. Anticipating Q4 2024: Calm Before the Next Move Looking ahead to September 2024, expectations are set for subdued trading activity, with the GBP/USD likely oscillating between $1.3000 and $1.3200. This forecasted lull suggests another accumulation/distribution phase that could serve as a precursor to more definitive movements in the fourth quarter. Conclusion and Forward Outlook The trajectory of GBP/USD points towards stability in the near term, with potential gearing up for another significant movement as we approach the end of 2024. Traders should monitor these pivotal levels closely, as they offer valuable insights and strategic entry points. Given the currency’s recent history and the robust support demonstrated at key Camarilla levels, a bullish bias may be advisable heading into the next quarter, with careful attention to any shifts that might suggest a different course. Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to navigate through these dynamic market phases and extract actionable insights to enhance our trading strategies.
CME_MINI:M6B1!
by msrozba
GBPUSD Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀 👉 The GBPUSD pair is currently displaying indications of price extension, approaching a significant resistance area. This technical configuration suggests a potential corrective move. Our trading approach involves identifying opportunities for long positions, contingent upon a retracement to key Fibonacci levels, specifically within the 50% to 61.8% range. It is essential to consider this analysis within the broader macroeconomic context. The recent monetary policy shift by the Bank of Japan, characterised by an interest rate increase, has introduced considerable volatility across global financial markets. Traders should anticipate and factor in the possibility of sustained elevated market volatility, which may significantly influence price dynamics and risk management strategies. The convergence of these technical and fundamental factors presents an intriguing trading scenario. However, it is imperative to emphasize the importance of robust risk management practices. Market participants are strongly advised to conduct comprehensive independent research and evaluate their personal risk appetite before initiating any trading positions. Please note: This analysis is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It should not be construed as financial advice or an explicit recommendation to execute any particular trade. 📊 ✅
Long
by fxtraderanthony
2