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Gbpusd_forecast

GBP/USD Continues Downtrend, Aligns with Supply ForecastGBP/USD has extended its decline after reaching our predicted supply area, as outlined in our previous analysis. (Link below.) Prolonged Downtrend Expected The current trend suggests that the price may continue to fall over the next few months, potentially reaching the demand area around 1.24 before experiencing a new bullish impulse. This aligns with our forecast, anticipating a bearish phase until October. Anticipation of Monetary Policy Announcements Traders are awaiting key monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. These events are expected to inject fresh volatility into the market, possibly pushing GBP/USD even lower. Market Sentiment and Indices Meanwhile, the UK's FTSE 100 Index has dipped by 0.3%, while US stock index futures are trading marginally higher, reflecting a cautious market stance. Strategy and Outlook Given these conditions, we maintain our bearish outlook and continue to hold our short position, anticipating further downward movement in GBP/USD. Previous Forecast: ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Hedge Funds' Sterling Bet: A Risky Gamble?A surge in bullish bets on the British pound sterling by hedge funds and other asset managers has ignited concerns about a potential market upheaval. Aggressive positioning on the currency has reached a 10-year high, leaving it vulnerable to a sharp correction should the Bank of England (BoE) decide to cut interest rates this week. The data, sourced from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, reveals a dramatic increase in net-long positions on sterling over the past month. This bullish sentiment has been fueled by a combination of factors, including relatively high interest rates, signs of economic improvement, and the perceived stability of the UK government. As a result, the pound has gained nearly 1% against the US dollar since the start of the year and reached a one-year high earlier this month. However, the market's optimism may be misplaced. The BoE's monetary policy decision on Thursday remains a significant uncertainty, with market pricing indicating an equal chance of a rate hike or a cut. If the central bank opts to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, it could have a severe impact on the pound. The heightened bullish sentiment among investors has created a scenario where even a hint of dovishness from the BoE could trigger a rapid unwinding of positions and a sharp decline in sterling. The potential for a significant market correction has prompted concerns among analysts and investors. Some argue that the current level of bullishness is excessive and that the market is underpricing the risk of a rate cut. They caution that a sudden shift in sentiment could lead to significant losses for those holding long positions on the pound. As the market awaits the BoE's decision, volatility is expected to remain high. The outcome of the meeting will undoubtedly have far-reaching consequences for the pound and the broader global financial markets. If the central bank surprises the market with a rate cut, it could be a wake-up call for investors who have become overly complacent about the currency's prospects. Ultimately, the recent surge in bullish sterling bets highlights the inherent risks of relying on market consensus. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the current level of optimism surrounding the pound raises questions about the sustainability of the currency's strength. As the old adage goes, "buy low, sell high," but in this case, investors may be finding themselves on the wrong side of the trade.
by bryandowningqln
GBPUSD - Look for Continuation Long (SWING) 1:3.5!GBPUSD is closely related to XAUUSD and the DXY basket of six pairs, providing excellent confluence and confirmation opportunities for trading pairs against USD. Currently, GBPUSD has created a new high and is correcting to the nearest RBS Zone, a demand zone, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish momentum in the higher timeframe. The price doesn't seem likely to yield to sellers soon, especially considering the FED's recent decision to freeze interest rates. This suggests a forecast of continued upward movement supported by strong bearish signals and a few high-impact USD news events this week. We'll need to observe how the market reacts to these sentiments and news impacts. Regardless, it's crucial to manage your risk wisely and wait for a clear market structure before making any moves. Disclaimer: This is simply my personal technical analysis, and you're free to consider it as a reference or disregard it. No obligation! Emphasizing the importance of proper risk management—it can make a significant difference. Wishing you a successful and happy trading experience!
Long
by S-Fx_
GBP/USD Shorts from 1.29200 back downI am looking for sell opportunities in GBP/USD. Recently, the price dropped and broke structure to the downside, indicating a bearish trend. To capitalize on this move, I expect a retracement back to our marked points of interest (POIs). Once the price retraces to these POIs, I'll be watching for a Wyckoff distribution pattern on the lower time frame to initiate sell positions. There’s significant liquidity below, making this a pro-trend idea that aligns with my bullish dollar bias. Confluences for GU Sells: Trend Formation: Price is forming lower lows and lower highs. Supply Zone: A 5-hour supply zone caused the recent break of structure. Liquidity: Significant liquidity below in the form of trend lines and Asia lows. Dollar Strength: DXY (Dollar) is bullish on the higher time frame, supporting this pro-trend trade idea. P.S. If the price continues to drop without tapping into my supply zone, I will wait for it to reach the 17-hour demand zone and look for buy opportunities back up. However, I am more inclined toward sell positions.
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
GBPUSD:300+ Pips A Great Buying Opportunity!Dear Traders, GBPUSD has recently completed its corrective phase and is currently poised to establish a new yearly high. The overall bullish trend remains intact, and we anticipate further price appreciation in the coming days. However, it is important to note that several significant news events are scheduled for this week and next, which could introduce volatility into the market. Therefore, we recommend employing prudent risk management strategies when trading this pair. Good luck and trade safe!
Long
by Setupsfx_
7
GBP/USD Shorts are becoming more dominant? GU sell opportunities are looking increasingly favorable as the dollar continues to rise. We now have some high-quality supply zones, specifically the 19-hour and 4-hour zones. If the price breaks the nearby low and structure again, the 2-hour supply zone I’ve identified will become more valid. Since the price is not near any of my high-time-frame points of interest (POIs), if it keeps falling, I expect the imbalances to be filled and the demand zones to be mitigated. Ideally, we will see a reaction from the 3-hour or 17-hour demand zones. Confluences for GU Sells: The dollar is bullish, indicating GU should trend downward. Valid supply zones are forming, presenting potential bearish trade setups. There are numerous imbalances and liquidity below that can be targeted. The price has changed character and broken structure to the downside on the higher time frame. P.S. I will closely monitor the price action throughout the week and adapt accordingly. It appears that a sell position is becoming more likely due to the Wyckoff distribution observed on the high time frame.
Short
by Hassan_fx
GBPUSD ( BULLISH ) ( 4H )GBPUSD HELLO TRADERS TENDENCY : the price stabilizing above turning level , indicates is under bullish pressure . TURNING LEVEL : the price around 1.294 . PRICE MOVEMENT : the price in previously it can be a strong rising and created a new historical peaks , currently price 1.296 , as long as the price stabilizing above turning level reach a resistance level my goal 1.298 , 1.303 PRICE ACTION : LONG CONDITION : until the price trading above this level reach a resistance level at 1.298 , then stable this level created a new resistance level at 1.303 . SHORT CONDITION : if the price breaking turning level at 1.294 , reach a support level at 1.290 , then breaking this level reach a next support at 1.285 TARGET LEVEL : RESISTANCE LEVEL : 1.298 , 1.303 ( new resistance level ) . SUPPORT LEVEL : 1.290 , 1.285 .
Long
by ArinaKarayi
GBPUSD (lower timeframe )ready for sell ?hello dear trader in my price action : gbp rejected from resistance zone , after collect liqidity from resistance zone (1.2970 ) fundamental : Retail sales were flat in June, defying Wall Street's prediction of a decline amid signs of slowing in the US economy. Economists had expected a 0.3% decline in spending, according to Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, retail sales in May were revised higher to an increase of 0.3%, from a prior reading of 0.1%, according to Census Bureau data. June sales, excluding auto and gas, increased by 0.8%, above consensus estimates for a 0.2% increase. The control group in Tuesday's release, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the Gross Domestic Product reading for the quarter, increased 0.9% in June, above estimates for a 0.2% increase. "Although retail sales were unchanged in June, the strong 0.9% rise in control group sales should ease concerns about the plight of the consumer in the wake of the renewed slump in sentiment," Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth wrote in a note to clients. "Admittedly, both second-quarter consumption and GDP growth still appear to have been no better than 2% annualised, but the strong gain in June does set up for a better third quarter performance."
by mehdi_kb
11
GBP/USD Longs from 1.29400 back up This pro-trend idea aligns with the current bullish momentum, as we see price break structure once again. The recent impulsive move broke the previous supply, creating a new demand zone. I will now await a pullback to this demand zone, specifically a promising 3-hour demand. However, I won't be surprised if price continues to climb, reaching a supply area and then dropping to a deeper demand level. This could occur as price fills the imbalances left from the impulsive move. Confluences for GU Buys: Price has been very bullish, breaking structure to the upside. The current trend is bullish, matching the dropping DXY. There is significant liquidity to the upside, with strong bullish candles on the higher time frame. Demand zones have been created near the current price, indicating potential for another rally. P.S. I won't be surprised if price opens with volatility. A major incident involving Donald Trump in the USA could cause price gaps. Therefore, I will patiently wait for the market to settle before making any moves.
Long
by Hassan_fx