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Gbpusd_forecast

GBP/USD Navigates Sideways Market with Focus on US Inflation DatThe recovery move in the GBP/USD pair from the 1.2660 level appears to have initiated following the price's rejection at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous swing low. Our long-term forecast anticipates closing this position around 1.2760, as the COT report indicates a potential for USD strength outweighing that of GBP. Currently, the price is trading within a sideways range, presenting an opportunity for a strategy of buying at lower, discounted prices and selling at higher, premium prices. Investors are now shifting their focus towards the upcoming release of the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for May, which is scheduled for publication on Friday. This data is crucial as it is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation. The core PCE inflation data is expected to provide fresh insights into the timing and extent of future interest rate adjustments by the Fed. Annual underlying inflation is projected to have eased to 2.6% in May, down from the previous reading of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, the inflation rate is expected to have grown by 0.1%, a slight decrease from the 0.2% growth observed in April. Given these conditions, we are looking to establish a bullish position within this sideways trading area, leveraging the price movements to buy low and sell high as the market dynamics unfold.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBPUSD analysis week 28GBP/USD drops to new multi-week lows below 1.2650 GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure and trades at its lowest since mid-May below 1.2650. Stronger-than-expected Manufacturing and Services PMI data from the US helped the USD maintain its position and sent the pair lower. The Bank of England (BoE) announced on Thursday that it is not changing its monetary policy settings. “The June decision is reasonably balanced as higher-than-expected services inflation reflects factors that will not push up medium-term inflation,” the BoE said. The BoE's upbeat tone on the inflation outlook has seen the Pound weaken against its major rivals. GBP/USD fell below the lower bound of the ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-day chart fell below 40, reflecting a bearish bias in the short-term outlook. After breaking the important support level of 1,266, the GBPUSD pair may retreat to the 1,259 area before encountering recovery support. The main support level of the pair is at the 1,252 area. If GBP/USD drops below 1.259 and starts to use it as resistance, an extended slide towards 1.252 could be seen Support: 1,259-1,252 Resistance: 1,266-1,272 Trading signals SELL GBPUSD zone 1.272-1.274 SL 1.276 BUY GBPUSD zone 1.252-1.250 SL 1.248
by TVS-Trader
2
A Brief History of the Pound (Strength and Weakness) Black Wednesday, 16 September 1992 Black Wednesday, or the 1992 sterling crisis, was a financial crisis that occurred when the UK Government was forced to withdraw sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. This is when George Soros famously shorted the pound and made a 1 billion dollar profit. Dot-com Bubble, 2000 The dot-com boom peaked on 10 March 2000. The bust followed, causing USD strength. The GBP Boom, 2002-2007 The recent economic golden era for the UK. Inflation was steady, and economic growth was high. The Global Recession, 2007/2008 The boom was inevitably followed by a bust—a financial crisis that shook the world. Cash flowed to dollars, yen, and Swiss francs. I lived through this (and lost my employment). I started trading during the recovery. Recession Recovery, 2009-2024 Global economies slowly recovered from the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Cash flowed back to non-dollar and non-yen currencies. Brexit, 2015-2019 The GBP weakened due to the uncertainty of the UK leaving the EU. The EU referendum was held on 23 June 2016. The GBP continued to weaken on the referendum result and the UK leaving the EU. I remember watching the pound fall the week after the referendum. The volatility was nothing I had ever witnessed... Until COVID! COVID & High Inflation, 2000-2023 The global pandemic brought panic to the markets, weakening the GBP and strengthening the USD. This was followed by high inflation, further weakening the GBP and strengthening the USD. I wonder where PEPPERSTONE:GBPUSD go from here?
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
GBPUSD: The British Pound is on a short-term recovery trend.GBPUSD: The British Pound is on a short-time period restoration trend. In the context of USD adjusting downward. The situation in today`s consultation ought to see GBPUSD short-time period resistance across the 1.2730 region. It is anticipated that GU will preserve to growth and there may be reactions round this resistance region and decline. In the quick time period, you could purchase with GU and wait to promote above this resistance zone
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
1
GBP/USD Bullish Momentum Following Demand Area ReactionFollowing our previous forecast, GBP/USD has gained volume on the bullish side, showing a strong reaction in the demand area we highlighted on Friday. Early Monday, the USD remains under modest bearish pressure amid an improving risk mood, which helps GBP/USD hold its ground and maintain its upward trajectory. US Economic Data and Market Sentiment The US economic docket for today includes the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. While these data points are important, they are unlikely to trigger a significant market reaction. Investors are expected to remain focused on broader risk perception and market sentiment, which currently favor a bullish outlook for GBP/USD. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook From a technical perspective, we have identified a strong support/demand area where GBP/USD has recently rebounded. This area, around the 1.26800 level, has provided a solid foundation for the pair's bullish momentum. The price reaction in this zone indicates that buyers are stepping in, reinforcing the potential for further gains. Additionally, the improving risk sentiment in the market has contributed to the USD's modest bearish pressure, providing additional support for the GBP/USD pair. As investors move towards riskier assets, the demand for safe-haven currencies like the USD tends to decrease, further bolstering the GBP's strength. Anticipated Price Movement Considering the current market conditions and technical signals, we anticipate an increase in GBP/USD's price. The pair is expected to continue its upward movement as long as it remains above the key support/demand area. This bullish outlook is further supported by the overall market sentiment and the lack of high-impact economic data that could alter the USD's trajectory in the short term. Conclusion In summary, GBP/USD is showing strong bullish momentum following a significant reaction in the demand area. With the USD under modest bearish pressure and an improving risk mood, the pair is well-positioned to continue its upward trend. Investors should keep an eye on broader market sentiment and technical signals to capitalize on this potential movement. As always, it's important to stay updated with any changes in market conditions that could impact this outlook.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBPUSD SWING IDEA OVER 200 PIPSOn the daily chart, GBPUSD appears to be moving sideways at first glance. However, a closer look reveals a distinct pattern in the price action. There's a key level around 1.28200 that the price has consistently respected for some time. If you delve deeper, you'll notice that the price approached this level within a contracting channel, broke through it, and is now forming a bearish continuation pattern. This is a crucial development to watch closely. Stay alert for potential moves!
Short
by fasthandfx
1
Based on the provided chart for the GBP/USD 4-hour timeframe, heBased on the provided chart for the GBP/USD 4-hour timeframe, here’s the technical analysis: ### Observations: 1. **Current Trend**: - The pair is currently in a downtrend, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. 2. **Order Block (OB)**: - An order block is identified around the 1.2700 level. This zone often acts as a significant area of resistance due to institutional orders. 3. **Liquidity Zone**: - The liquidity zone is marked below the current price, suggesting a potential target for the bearish movement. 4. **Retracement**: - The price has the potential to retrace to the identified order block around 1.2700 before continuing its downward movement towards the liquidity zone. ### Analysis: - **Retracement to Order Block**: - It’s likely that the price might retrace to the order block around the 1.2700 level. This zone could act as resistance, where sellers may step in, increasing selling pressure. - **Bearish Continuation to Liquidity Zone**: - Following the retracement to the order block, the price is expected to continue its bearish trend. The liquidity zone below represents an area where stop-loss orders may be clustered, making it an attractive target for bearish momentum. ### Potential Trade Plan: 1. **Entry**: - Consider entering a short position if the price retraces to the order block around 1.2700 and shows signs of rejection (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns or increased selling volume). 2. **Stop Loss**: - Place a stop-loss order above the order block, possibly around 1.2730 to 1.2750, to account for potential false breakouts. 3. **Target**: - Aim for the liquidity zone as the primary target, which is below the 1.2500 level. ### Risk Management: - Ensure proper risk management by not risking more than 1-2% of your trading capital on this setup. - Monitor the trade closely for any signs of reversal or unexpected market movements. ### Conclusion: The chart indicates a probable bearish scenario where a retracement to the order block may provide a good entry point for a short position. The ultimate target would be the liquidity zone below the current price. Always confirm with additional technical indicators and keep abreast of any fundamental news that might impact the GBP/USD pair.
Short
by DrGhanizadeh
GU bearish reaction from 1.27600 or 1.27800My bias for GU this week is to look for sell opportunities. I expect the price to react from the current demand zone I identified last week, which should trigger a pullback towards the supply zone. Once the price reaches either the 10-hour or 12-hour supply zone, I will look for a Wyckoff distribution on the lower time frame and a clear shift in trend, indicating the price is ready to resume its downward trend. Confluences for GU Sells are as follows: - Lots of liquidity below that needs to get taken as well as imbalances that need to get filled. - DXY is also looking bullish which aligns with this idea as well. - Price has left a clean level of supply that has been unmitigated. - Price is currently in a downtrend so this is a pro-trend idea. - Higher time frame and candle stick anatomy also show bearish P.S. If the price continues to decline, I will wait for it to enter a deeper demand zone before buying back up, assuming the new week starts off bearish. However, my overall strategy for this week is to focus on sell opportunities.
Short
by Hassan_fx
GBPUSD trading signals on June 13The British Pound (GBP) fell below the key support level of 1.2800 against the US Dollar (USD) during Thursday's trading session in London. The GBP/USD pair corrected sharply after rising to near a three-month high of 1.2860, inspired by a cooler-than-expected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. ​in May. Cable posted decent gains as the US Dollar rebounded after the latest interest rate forecast from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers during the June monetary policy meeting suggests that there will be just one rate cut this year, compared with three predicted in March. The Fed signaled fewer interest rate cuts as strong labor market conditions and price pressures remained higher in the first quarter of the year. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, recovered further to 104.80 After the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% as expected, officials admitted that disinflation progress toward the 2% target was slower than they predicted. The Fed also revised its forecast for the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, to 2.8% in 2024, up from the 2.6% estimate by the Fed. March . The recovery can extend to the strong support zone of 1,275, we can establish a BUY signal. This price range is supported by the trendline EMA 34 and EMA 89 in an uptrend. This is also the old DOW breakout area, so the price will react in this area. Wishing you a successful trading day
by TVS-Trader
1
GBPUSD Bullish on a broader view1.5 years ago FX:GBPUSD Took a hit and dropped to its All time low at around 1.03 then it turned back around after that hit and since then it has been on a bullish run. On 6M 12M and 1M frames I can say that the bullish trend for the pair is still intact with targets at TP1 - 1.28800 TP2- 1.31100 TP3 - 1.36800 On the downside the exchange rate will stop at SL1- 1.23198 SL2- 1.21021 SL3 -1.18000 *******************************************************************************88 Do your own analysis and use hardstop order
Long
by alonso780