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Gbpusdanalysis

Future Forecast for GBPUSD== KEY TAKEWAYS == + There were four-month lows for the pound sterling relative to the US dollar. + It appears that GBP/USD will be vulnerable coming up to UK inflation week. + The pound sterling maintains its bearish technical indication target at 1.2400. The US dollar (USD) continued to lose ground against the pound sterling (GBP), causing the GBP/USD pair to drop below 1.2500 for the first time in four months. The pound sterling continues to decline. GBP/USD sellers made a strong comeback this week following a respectable recovery in the earlier part of the week due to renewed demand for the US Dollar. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations surrounding the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy turn contributed to the Greenback's rise to its highest level against its main peers in five months, above 105.00. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), the week's primary event risk, came in hotter than anticipated, dashed hopes for a June Fed rate cut. According to data provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday, the US CPI increased 0.4% MoM in March, exceeding predictions of 0.3%. In the same time frame, the Monthly Core CPI increased by 0.4% as well, exceeding estimates of 0.3%. Against the 3.4% market estimate, the yearly headline CPI increased by 3.5%. Compared to the around 52% odds observed prior to the data release, markets are now pricing in only a 22% possibility of the Fed cutting rates in June. There is a 70% chance that the Fed will decrease rates during its September meeting. The rationale for delaying the Fed's policy change was further reinforced by the hot US core Producer Price Index (PPI) for March, hawkish remarks from a number of Fed policymakers, and the minutes of the Fed's March meeting. All of these factors combined to keep inflation high despite a robust economy. The US and its allies believe major missile or drone strikes by Iran or its proxies against military and government targets in Israel are imminent, in what would mark a significant widening of the six-month-old conflict, according to a Wednesday Bloomberg report that cited people familiar with the intelligence. Concurrently, Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom united on Thursday to urge Middle Eastern nations to exercise moderation, particularly in light of the growing danger of an impending Iranian attack on Israel. Israel declared that it was getting ready to "meet all its security needs" in case Iran launched an airstrike. This comes after Iran threatened to exact revenge for the airstrike that killed a senior Iranian general and six other Iranian military officers on April 1st at its embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, raising tensions that were already high due to the Gaza conflict. Severe geopolitical concerns continued to hurt the safer-haven US dollar while strengthening the higher-yielding pound sterling. However, Megan Greene, a policymaker at the Bank of England (BoE), gave some consolation to the British Pound with her hawkish remarks. Greene hinted on Thursday that rate cuts from the BoE are still a ways off, saying that "UK services inflation remains much higher than in the US." In the face of persistent US Dollar strength on Friday, GBP/USD remained susceptible despite a slight recovery from four-month lows of 1.2511. The solid industrial data for February and the UK GDP, which was estimated to be in line with expectations, did not inspire the buyers of pound sterling. Following a 0.3% recovery in January, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its most recent figures on Friday, indicating that the UK economy grew by 0.1% in February. In the stated period, a 0.1% expansion was anticipated by the market. According to additional UK data, February saw monthly increases in manufacturing and industrial production of 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. The week ahead: UK CPI remains on tap After a hectic week, traders of the pound sterling are getting ready for a data-light week, with the UK CPI inflation report for March serving as the sole major event. On Wednesday, the inflation statistics will be made public. Prior to that, policymaker Sarah Breeden of the BoE will speak earlier that day, while the US docket will include the March Retail Sales report on Monday. Tuesday is when the UK jobs data is expected to be released. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to appear at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings later that day. On Wednesday, Bailey will talk once more at the Institute of International Finance Global Outlook Forum. The US weekly Jobless Claims and the Existing Home Sales figures for March will be released on Thursday. Lastly, following the publication of the UK Retail Sales figures for March, BoE officials Dave Ramsden and Sarah Breeden will make their scheduled appearances on Friday. Additionally, market participants will be keenly examining the remarks made by Fed policymakers to see if they support the bets on postponed rate decreases. GBP/USD: Technical Outlook Technically speaking, the short-term outlook for GBP/USD is still bearish as sellers attempt to prolong the decline from the rising channel that was seen a few weeks ago. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is still susceptible to further falls because it is still below the midline, close to 40.00. The sellers of pound sterling produced a long-lasting breach below the 200-day SMA, which is horizontal and located around 1.2584, supporting the bearish bias. In order to continue the decline toward the low of 1.2449 on November 22, sellers must establish a firm foothold below the 1.2500 round number. The lows of November 16 and 17 line at 1.2375, which is the location of the next significant support. Alternatively, the short-term selling pressure may lessen if buyers are able to consistently close above the 200-day SMA at 1.2584. A significant rebound in the GBP/USD pair might then occur, heading toward the confluence resistance zone between the 1.2650 and 1.2670 area. The convergence of the 21-day, 50-day, and 100-day SMAs is located there. For buyers of pound sterling, the rising channel support that turned resistance at 1.2790 will be a difficult nut to crack further up.
by Michael_Harding
GbpUsd could dive at least 500 pips if not even moreFor nearly six months, the price action of FX:GBPUSD has been rather dull, to say the least, with the pair confined within a 250-pip range. This stagnation is particularly notable for a pair as volatile as the cable. However, upon examining a weekly chart, we can draw some conclusions and gain perspective on potential future movements. Three factors lead me to believe that a drop of at least 500 pips is in the cards for GBP/USD: 1. We've witnessed a false breakout to the upside, and typically, in the case of false breakouts, the asset tends to break in the opposite direction. 2. It's highly likely that this week will conclude with a bearish engulfing pattern on our chart. 3. Although not textbook-perfect, the structure of the last six months resembles a head and shoulders pattern. Considering these factors collectively, I anticipate a downward break, with the initial support just above 1.2 coming into focus. P.S: Given the pair's volatility and prolonged range-bound trading, in the event of a downward break, the movement could be quite violent. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a drop of 1,000 pips.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
8
GBP/USD back to support level, time to buy?Hello traders, in my yesterday's GBP/USD analysis published 2 hours before the US CPI data release, I predicted that GBP/USD will most likely fall towards the support level near 1.2550. (previous idea attached below) As you can see, GBP/USD is back to the support zone, price went as low as 1.2520. So, I am looking at the possibility of a buy entry here. If price doesn't break this support zone, I would recommend buying GBP/USD@1.2520-1.2545, with Stop loss below 1.2480 and TP at 1.2660 and 1.2710
Long
by KaltoireCapital
2
GBPUSD BUY | Trading Analysis SetupHello Traders, here is the full analysis. The completed correction, recovery and formation, continuation of growth. GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity GBPUSD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Long
by TheGrove
3
How will US CPI data impact GBP/USD?Hello traders, with CPI data coming out in less than 4 hours, let us take a look at the 4H chart of GBP/USD. The situation on the 4H chart is definitely bullish as price has bounced off the 1.2540 support level and currently it is consolidating above the 100 period moving average. However, spikes or dips during CPI can not be ruled out. So, is there is a dip to the support zone or at least 1.26 level, I would consider buying GBP/USD. Similarly, if it spikes up to 1.28 and fails to break 1.28, I would consider selling. Either way, I would trade after the data is released.
by KaltoireCapital
2
The GBP didn't short itself. If one would have checked the recent flightlogs of the GBP performance he might have been astounded what he would discover: GBP emerges from the first trading week of the year as the strongest currency and the signs look great for a further rally of the pound: 🟢GBP Positive:🟢 - 🟢 The PMIs in the UK have recently surprised on the upside and so there is light at the end of the tunnel, in contrast to the European counterpart, which has only surprised with more and more negative PMIs - 🟢 Although wage pressure is falling, it remains high by international standards - 🟢 There are signs of a recovery in both retail sales and GDP for 2024 - 📊🇬🇧 Inflation will fall quickly and reach 2% mark as early as Q2 2024🟢 - 🟢 That said given the better economic performance it is doubtful whether the BOE will actually cut interest rates as early as its sister from the ECB -> 🟢 I think May would be a realistic scenario for a 1st rate cut by the BOE ✅️ But as every story that sounds to good to be true, the longterm outlook brings some serious concerns for the so far marvellous UK dream story: 🔴GBP Negative:🔴 - 🔴GDP was recently significantly weaker (-0.3) than expected (0.0) - 🔴Industrial production also surprised negatively in relation to expectations at 0.4 - 🔴However, the significantly weaker labour data recently, in which bonus payments in particular surprised to the downside and raised one question in particular, weighs even more heavily and will bring much more rate cuts forward than the BOE and the market are expecting right now. Conclusion: The outlook for the pound is starting to brighten, but overall the negative factors are likely to outweigh against the USD in the longterm and so I see a promising opportunity to short the GBPUSD (after another rally) from way above. The 1.32 - 1.33 zone would be ideal. (For everyone who made it this far I have an extra for you: A small quiz in the comments ;) If someone wants to buy the GBP now, a long trade in GBPCHF is a good idea, which I explain in my following trade idea here:
Short
by PrimeTrading
5
GBPUSD: Shift to Bullish Order Flow (CPI High Impact News)GBPUSD has recently shifted to a bullish institutional order flow, prompting us to identify key areas of interest conducive to the bullish bias . Currently, we're observing a mitigation block situated at premium prices , serving as an initial entry point for our bullish trajectory. Alternatively, should the premium point not materialize, we await a dip into the discount sell stops , offering viable buying opportunities post-confirmation. This bullish sentiment is reinforced by a low resistance liquidity zone, strategically positioning us to capitalize on favorable trading conditions. By aligning our strategies with areas of low resistance, we enhance our chances of success in navigating the market dynamics. Today, we're also expecting the CPI News release , which may inject high volatility into the market , potentially favoring bullish movements . Stay tuned for updates. Please watch my GBPUSD analysis from long-term to short-term below. Kind Regards, The_Architect
Long
by The_Archi-tect
GBP/USD : Will it reach 1.29 level?Hello traders, let us take a look at the daily chart in GBP/USD. First of all, I would like to draw your attention towards the highlighted elliptical zone in the chart. If you look at the price action, you will see that there are signs of reversal in this zone. The last daily candle indicates bulls are back in the game Secondly, the horizontal support level has remained unbroken so far which indicates there is ample buying interest in the 1.2540-1.26 zone. A combination of these two factors gives us a bullish bias in GBP/USD. In my idea published on 3 April, I already recommended buying at the 1.2540 level. So, my plans remain the same, I would continue to buy the dips in GBP/USD as long as the support zone remains unbroken.
Long
by KaltoireCapital
9
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: Analyzing Potential Trends and IdeasIn this video, I'll conduct a comprehensive analysis of GBPUSD , examining it from a High Timeframe (HTF) perspective down to our Low Timeframes (LTF) . This approach will provide insights into what to expect in trading for the upcoming week. Additionally, I'll delve into an analysis of the DXY to further enhance our understanding of market dynamics. Stay tuned for valuable insights and strategies. Kind Regards, The_Architect
by The_Archi-tect
Xauusd analysis is ready to target 🎯🎯traders Gold price is ready to fly My dear subscribers My technical analysis is for Gold below The price is coming around a solid key Level 2356 Now Xauusd market 2356 Support zone 2345 Target zone. 2415 Bis_ Bullish Technical indicators Pivot point low anticipates a potential price reversal Super trend shows a clear buy giving a Perfect indicators convergence perfect Indicators convergence Give us like and comments support us
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FxJoseph_7
GBPUSD: Exploring Buy OpportunitiesCurrently, I'm observing a continuation of bullish institutional order flow , particularly towards the H1 Buy Stops , which serves as our Draw On Liquidity . Price action is positioned at a crucial juncture, resting upon a significant H1 Bullish Order Block , aligned with a reclaimed order block — an institutional support zone. In this scenario, I anticipate this area to serve as a stronghold as we persist in our pursuit of a bullish trajectory. Furthermore, below the current price action lies a compelling H4 Bullish Order Block, characterized by a Liquidity Void. Should price action gravitate towards this zone, I'll be vigilant for a confirmation entry, signaling potential buying opportunities. Stay tuned for further updates and analysis. Kind Regards, The_Architect
Long
by The_Archi-tect
GBPUSD Trade Idea - Important Points To ConsiderIn the video, we analyse a potential trading opportunity for the GBPUSD. We delve into the prevailing trend, examine price movements, evaluate market structure, and pinpoint a potential entry point based on favourable conditions (if they arise), as outlined in the video. Additionally, I discuss my risk management strategy. Traders who lack a robust risk management plan expose themselves to significant risk and often encounter negative trading outcomes. It is crucial to incorporate sound risk management principles into your trading strategy. As always, please be aware that this information is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
Short
by fxtraderanthony